Kos: Oregon is poor & white -- and still supports Obama
Kos, hisownself, writing about SurveyUSA's poll of likely Oregon voters (Obama up 50-44; he was 52-42 3 weeks ago)
Among whites:Obama 50
Clinton 44Yeah, Oregon is mostly white. And Obama is winning it.
Funny that, I've just spent weeks hearing about how Obama can't win white people. So I'm a bit confused.
Also, Oregon is ranked 23rd in the nation in per-capita income. That ranks below Ohio. In fact, none of Oregon's counties rank in the list of the nation's 100 richest counties. And while Portland's Multnomah County is one of the state's wealthiest counties, Obama actually does far better outside of Portland, were people are poorer and whiter.
Funny that, I've just spent weeks hearing about how Obama can't win lower-income voters. So I'm a bit confused.
You know what's going on? White people west of the Mississippi like Obama fine, those east of the Mississippi have a problem with him. That's why (generally speaking) Obama runs far stronger in the western part of the country, despite having smaller to non-existent black populations.
I don't think it's any surprise to us in Oregon that we don't have any of the 100 richest counties or that we're below Ohio in per capita income. I find it encouraging for the long term that the West is so strong in its support of Obama, given that the West gave Reagan so much support a generation ago.
As a Westerner, born and raised and having spent most of my life in the West (born in Springfield, raised in Billings, Montana, and having lived in Portland, Eugene, Corvallis, Seattle and the Bay Area... gasp), I have long resented the view of Westerners as independent ... as long as we get our government subsidies for land and mining. Being a "left-coast liberal" has been something to be ashamed of in years past, but I have never understood why. We're not the ones demanding the government give us cheap land, almost free mining access, and the right to run roughshod over the wilderness. Yet somehow lefties like me are not "real" Westerners?
Screw that. My grandpa helped build the houses so many people live in down in California. Both my parents educated the children of people from Billings to Riddle (go get a damn map) to Corvallis. My mom's folks and her brothers built businesses in Grants Pass. I come from people who made the West a good place to live, my liberal/progressive ex-wife has helped hundreds of needy families raise their children well, my sons are both choosing to serve their state and their nation (National Guard and Coast Guard), and I think I've done my part to make Oregon a good place to live.
Sorry. I've gone a bit off-tangent, but Kos raises an excellent point: Oregon is one of America's poorer, whiter states — and we're standing pretty strong by Obama. We're not Reagan Country any more, but with the growth of progressive politics all throughout the West, we can really say that, yes, it is morning in America.
This time, for all of us.
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May 2, 2008 |
T.A. Barnhart | Comments (18 so far)
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Posted by: Bill | May 2, 2008 10:12:54 PM
You are right on. Up here in WA state, Obama won every county, top to bottom, left to right. Something about the Western outlook is in sync with Obama's optimistic, can-do worldview - and deeply at odds with the cynical, half-assed Clintonian BS.
Posted by: HhD | May 2, 2008 10:56:00 PM
Funny thing about that post is the comments. Stop in there and read a few for a good chuckle...
Apparently, we're some alien species just recently discovered by the rest of the country; and it's been rather interesting to read what some of them think about working white people here in Oregon. It's amongst the highest of high comedy watching some of them try to 'explain' my thought process and life experiences; while at the same breaking themselves down by region and accusing each other of being racists...
Posted by: Bob R. | May 2, 2008 11:23:49 PM
Is the link to the original Kos material missing from this post, or am I just missing it?
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | May 3, 2008 12:47:30 AM
Posted by: Anon | May 3, 2008 1:30:21 AM
Obama doesn't do well in racist counties. If you compare his performance with regions that disapprove of interracial marriage, I'll bet you they match up pretty well.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | May 3, 2008 2:13:19 AM
Added the Kos link.
Posted by: joel dan walls | May 3, 2008 8:05:19 AM
I have long resented the view of Westerners as independent ... as long as we get our government subsidies for land and mining
With all due respect to Mr Barnhart...I think there's a rather strong and perverse feeling of entitlement amongst many, although not necessarily in the western US. Think of the folks who want to build in floodplains and then get bailed out by Uncle Sam when there's a flood, say. I like the idea of a government that takes care of people; I also like the idea that people take responsibility for their choices. You want to build on a floodplain? OK...then buy flood insurance (which BTW will not be cheap).
OK, that was off-topic.
Mr Barnhart is wrong about the demographics. We're simply awash here in the latte-sipping, Prius-driving, Birkenstock-wearing trust fund babies denounced by that buffoon Tom Buffenbarger, that sorry excuse for a labor-union leader who was campaigning for Clinton back in Ohio. That's right, sorry excuse: when a guy who leads a labor union--an exercise in solidarity by definiion--starts tearing down other Democrats, something is seriously wrong. Those are GOP tactics and talking points, Mr Buffenbarger.
Posted by: JoseyJ | May 3, 2008 9:08:00 AM
Obama voted for a gas tax holiday in Illinois - 3 times!
He even wanted to put his name on the gas pumps so his constituents would know he voted for the tax suspension.
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/2/215016/4476
Posted by: Bill R. | May 3, 2008 9:11:55 AM
The Clinton trash machine doesn't seem to having that much affect. They're playing the Rev. Wright card and it's falling flat. Obama up by 11 pts.
Rasmussen Oregon Poll Today: Obama 51% Clinton 39%
Posted by: Bob | May 3, 2008 10:09:43 AM
The issue isn't that Obama can't win white voters -- it's that he's struggling to win white voters in racially-mixed areas.
In very white states like Wisconsin, Vermont, and Washington (and presumably Oregon), Obama has no trouble attracting white voters.
It's in racially-mixed areas like Ohio and Pennsylvania that white voters gravitate toward the white candidate.
More on that line of thinking from Matt Bai and James Pennington.
Posted by: joel dan walls | May 3, 2008 10:10:59 AM
Obama voted for a gas tax holiday in Illinois - 3 times!He even wanted to put his name on the gas pumps so his constituents would know he voted for the tax suspension.
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/2/215016/4476
The actual link here contains the following [my emphasis]:
"During one debate, he joked that he wanted signs on gas pumps in his district to say, 'Senator Obama reduced your gasoline prices.'"
Perhaps Obama is a bit wiser now?
By the way, the economist and columnist Paul Krugman, a reliable Clinton supporter and Obama critic, has written
a pithy criticism of what McCain and Clinton are proposing, as well as a broader commentary on the topic of a gas-tax holiday.
Posted by: Valerie Feltman | May 3, 2008 11:24:18 AM
To AVWROBEL: If you believe there is anything to the lie about Obama and Larry Sinclair then you are reading too many issues of National Enquirer. Please take note that Larry Sinclair is a convict and has spent much of his adult life in prison. So who do you think has more credibility -- a convicted felon or Barack Obama? Could it be the right-wing attack dogs are paying Sinclair to fabricate this story? Besides if there was any truth to this, don't you think FIXED news would have Sean Insanity and Bill O'Really? interviewing him day and night? Duh? Take one look at this degenerate. Can you imagine anyone wanting to even get close to this guy?
Posted by: Bill R. | May 3, 2008 11:44:41 AM
The Clintons and their surrogates will get payback for pushing the George Wallace wedge strategy. She has made herself unelectable.
Here's a good article on the lie that Obama can't win the white voter.
"Operation Anti-Chaos: The Narrative on “White Voters” Is Fiction"
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/3/131319/6482/128/508366
Posted by: Chris Lowe | May 3, 2008 12:05:26 PM
Dead right Valerie. This smear was floated in late January / early February. By the end of February not only the facts you cite were out but Sinclair had failed two polygraphs.
What I want to know is whether the honest Clinton supporters will come out and reject this kind of thing, or if they secretly condone it.
In the Civil Rights era, there was the Klan, and there were the White Citizens' Councils, which operated more politely and openly to organize "massive resistance" to integration and equality, were said to be more respectable. Subsequently trials of crimes and other source of evidence revealed that a proportion of the "polite" Citizens' Council leaders and activists were also under the hoods.
This BS damages respect for Clinton if she and her honest followers don't put a stop to it, but instead condone it with silence and take advantage of it in other ways.
Posted by: paul g. | May 3, 2008 12:39:38 PM
I got to agree with Bob. Kos's analysis of Oregon voters is just about as bad as Bill Clinton's analysis of Oregon rural voters.
Really, comparing Oregon's white working class to Pennsylvania or Ohio is just silly.
Posted by: t.a. barnhart | May 3, 2008 12:45:38 PM
JoseyJ, Obama did vote for the gas tax reductions in Illinois, which is what taught him they don't work. he actually paid attention to the real-world results of the policy and adjusted his thinking. of course, Hillary is doing the same thing, the difference being that she's learned the real-world results of pandering and is applying that to win an election.
i did not make clear (enough to jdw) that i oppose the sense of entitlement for which the West is too often known. and while we may have a fair number of yuppies in Portland and some other Oregon communities, for the most part this is a state where the majority of people are struggling. our schools are open less than just about anywhere else (thanks M5), we piss away vast amounts of money in a pointless prison system (thanks M11), we have higher rates of child hunger than most of the nation and generally, apart from a few spots here and there, most of us live on the edge. and we're white. and we support Obama. at least we get one thing right.
Posted by: Saltherring | May 6, 2008 6:24:41 AM
Yes, paul g., comparing Oregon's "white working class to Pennsylvania or Ohio is just silly", as white voters in PA and OH might possibly have the ability to think, rather than go ga-ga over a socialist, elitist, utopian empty suit like Obama. I'm guess I'm just thankful some Americans demand something more substantial than "change' or "hope". Most school children have more sense than to listen to such bunk.
Posted by: avwrobel | May 2, 2008 9:58:14 PM
Wake up! Google Obama and Larry Sinclair. Its not too late to stop a disasterous Obama candidacy from happening.