To be fair as well, most folks who know Novick live in the valley, especially PDX, whereas Merkley has deep roots across the state.

The question: Can Novick pile up big enough margins in Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties to offset Merkley's big totals in the other 33 counties?

If Novick leads among the 69% of voters in the metro area, he doesn't need to lead by much to offset Merkley's lead among the 31% of voters in the rest of the state.

Just out of curiosity, why do you think there's a rural/urban devide? I'm asking this question of everyone.

Is it really just because the Portland metro area is more familiar with Novik and the rest of the state with Merkley, or is it something else? Do you, any of you here on the blog, think it's more familiarity and name recognition or is it platform, etc.?

How much of the Portland surge do you think is people turning to the local papers' endorsements when weighing their decision now that a ballot is in their hands?

And if this were strictly a valley-vs-elsewhere contest, hasn't it turned out lately that the valley wins?

Nevermind that last question, it was debated in the last thread. It's a hypothetical anyway.

"To everything, spin, spin, spin"

Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Jan 22, 2008 11:34:50 PM [...] As you well know, I post my disclosure on every blog post I write - and on every comment that I post on anyone else's blog. Seriously...

Steve Novick - Endorsed by: The Medford Mail Tribune Ashland Daily Tidings East Oregonian Eugene Weekly The Source Weekly (Bend) The Forest Grove News-Times McMinnville News-Register The Hillsboro Argus Chuck Butcher

BB,

You know what? This post was pretty spin free. It was straight forward, had analysis and an interesting take. Nice to have Kari back- and time for all of us to pull together regardless of what happens. Defeating Smith will take that.

The thing that struck me is that Novick seems to have trended opposite Candy Neville. I'd speculate that, 1) people view Novick and Neville as being less establishment than Merkley, and 2) people view a vote for a distant 3rd place as being wasted, and 3) assorted other things. This seems true in both rural and urban areas.

Just proves that they tend to drink and like more Merkley Kool-Aid in Eastern Oregon than normal people.

My apologies on that one, Kari. However, there is a more of a mixture of former metro denizens who have moved to the coast than moved to Eastern Oregon. So you could say that it could come dowm to the "mixed" area of the Coast - the northen part in particular (from Florence to Astoria, which is big, but you get the idea).

well, i wouldn't assume that merkley is going to win in all of the other 33 counties, either. i would be extremely surprised if he wins benton county, for one.

but the point is well, taken, with the averages over all the non-pdx counties.

It will be interesting to see how this vote shapes up. I am beginning to wonder if the formula for Liberal=Urban, Conservative=Rural whether it be democrat or Republican holds up. I am rather ignorant as to what voters in places like Josephine County want.

I think that Portland will go Novick, although I am not sure how much so. Conversely, Merkley will likely win the other part of the state although again I don't know how much so.

A couple of quick points, first no one is drinking anyones kool aide. That type of talk (I have done it as well as other people) does not help. Too often in Politics, we turn it into pro sports and not about the issues.

I did support Novick until he was pegged by Merkley by his comments that he had made. In that moment, I realized that Novick's best strength which is his sharp wit, was also his greatest weakness.

At the same time, I do agree with Novick supporters who slam the DLC and Chuck Schumer. I really struggled with that question but ultimately it is simple, I don't believe that there was anything malicious meant by the DLC towards Novick, but I do believe that this infusion of money caused Merkley not to go out and grass root fundraise the way Novick has had to.

So I stayed out,

but I do support Amanda Fritz, Nick Fish and Sam Adams all for their respective seats. Also Reagan Gray for her seat as well.

...trying to divide Oregon and the party, classy Kari. "Merkley is the choice of real Oregonians, not the city hacks."

On another note, did you get the potassium cyanide pill from the campaign today?

Eric, I agree with Localmom.

I've met a ton of people in Pendleton, Roseburg, Coos Bay, Madras, all over who support Novick.

Here's my wager:

In addition to the Portland metro area, Novick will take Benton and Linn counties and that will be enough. I have had the exacta in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Let's see how I do tonight.

Steven, you aren't making any sense but your red herring is much appreciated.

any thoughts on how lane county will go? would candy neville's home town advantage parlay into any kind of spoiler affect there?

Steve Novick is far too liberal and abrasive to ever win a statewide race. Giving him the nomination means six more years for Gordon Smith. Let's all hope Democrats do the right thing and nominate Jeff Merkley.

Kari,

I'm confused. Where are your 69 and 31 numbers from? According to the most recent SOS numbers I can find the tri county area has only 42% of the total electorate and 48% of the Democratic electorate. Am I missing something? And I'm assuming your post took into consideration these smaller numbers of D's across the rural counties compared to overall electorate??