In Oregon, Obama extends his lead over McCain
Kari Chisholm
It wasn't much reported elsewhere, but on Sunday, SurveyUSA and KATU released the latest poll of Oregon voters in the presidential race.
Oddly, the poll was conducted before the primary election - but just released now. It's Obama 49, McCain 39, with 12% undecided and a 4.1% margin of error.
I've put together a chart with all the SurveyUSA matchups between McCain and Obama - along with shading to illustrate the margin of error.
And keep in mind: this is BEFORE the Waterfront Park rally, BEFORE the big primary win here, and BEFORE Obama became the presumptive nominee.
No wonder Gordon Smith - chairman of the McCain campaign in Oregon - has ads on the air running away from his candidate.
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connect with blueoregon
Jun 4, '08
Oregon needs to be nailed down by labor day so resources can be shifted to battleground states. I plan to be in Nevada or Colorado after labor day to assit there however I am needed. I am sooooo! pumped
11:31 a.m.
Jun 4, '08
You can't say Obama extended his lead; he's down 2 points and McCain is down 3. Both are within the MoE. The proper conclusion would be that he MAINTAINS his lead, by remaining ahead by more than 8.2%.
And why didn't they release this on the 19th, the day before the primary, when they released the others? Odd.
12:27 p.m.
Jun 4, '08
Within the margin of error? Huh?
Obama 49, McCain 39, margin 4.1%. Obama's worst is 45. McCain's best is 43. He is, at least, up by 2.
12:42 p.m.
Jun 4, '08
This looks like a good spot to throw in an attaboy to Kari and the Crew for the shiny new toys we've been playing with. That 32 slot VP machine was way cool as insta polls go, and a couple of others have been pretty fun too.
Good on you guys.....
12:44 p.m.
Jun 4, '08
Obama is -2 from the last SUSA poll; that's within the MoE, so there was no movement for Obama.
McCain is -3, also within the MoE, and no significant movement for him either.
This is the same error as from the Senate primary--when you have two results where neither candidate has movement outside the MoE, the results are functionally the same. For all we know, Obama has LOST part of his lead.
And really, from +9 to +10? That is mathematically exactly the same result.
12:44 p.m.
Jun 4, '08
"That 32 slot VP machine was way cool as insta polls go,"
That's not a MM product, is it? I thought that was someone else's.
Jun 4, '08
Kari wrote: “No wonder Gordon Smith - chairman of the McCain campaign in Oregon - has ads on the air running away from his candidate.”
I did not know that…
That’s a bullet even the slick Mr. Smith will be unable to avoid. Ha ha.
I don’t think this is widely known, yet. Hope that changes...
1:00 p.m.
Jun 4, '08
That's not a MM product, is it? I thought that was someone else's.
Correct. That's DemoChoice.org, a free IRV demo site.
1:35 p.m.
Jun 4, '08
That's not a MM product, is it?
So who the fuck said it was?
Jesus TJ, give it a rest will ya?
2:07 p.m.
Jun 4, '08
You implied it was, Pat--kari having given us a shiny new toy. It's not new, either--they've been using it for months. I don't know what you want me to give a rest--asking questions? You appear to have some lingering resentment, there.
Jun 4, '08
keep in mind, McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination in February. The graph seems to indicate that right around that time, Obama became the shiny rock which, kind of makes sense, given that the Obama/Clinton show's been about the only one on TV since McCain clinched it. Now that Obama appears to have the nomination and, the story will presumably be McCain vs. Obama, it'll be interesting to see what this poll does.
Kind of trivial this far out.
Jun 4, '08
This is not news!
louis farrakhan, ward churchill, or any left wing extremist democrat would be nominated over McCain in Ore.
Oregon is a blue state and will vote for the democrat every time.
What would be news is if that DIDN'T happen.
Jun 4, '08
Even if Oregon is not on the map to be competitive in the Presidential Race in November, we have all sorts of excellent candidates who need to get in to make a difference in down ticket races. Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could get a majority in the Oregon House on the coat tails of the Presidential? The Presidential is interesting, the US senate is neat, but the Oregon House will make a bigger difference to most of us. We're a small state and we can make big changes to get us moving with a progressive majority.
Jun 4, '08
Actually, the statistical relevance of this poll is questionable, at best. Take a look at the breakdown of Republicans-to-Democrats-to-Independents. The sample is heavily weighted towards Democrats 49 to 32 over Republicans.
What is surprising to me is that Obama's lead isn't greater. I don't know how excited I would be about this poll if I were a Democrat.
10:31 p.m.
Jun 4, '08
The sample is heavily weighted towards Democrats 49 to 32 over Republicans.
<h2>Are you suggesting that the electorate itself isn't heavily weighted toward Democrats these days? Registration in April was something like 42/32 - and the Dems registered quite bit more in May.... and will likely extend that lead between now and November.</h2>