Obama: Right Where He Wants to Be

Jeff Alworth

The just-released Gallup poll shows that John McCain has opened up a real lead on Barack Obama and cracked 50% for the first time in the election.  Thanks to the surprise selection of Sarah Palin, the GOP base finally seems united and energized, and we're a little less than two months from the election. 

I have no doubt that the Obama camp feels they've got McCain right where they want him. 

Obama has run a campaign unlike any we've seen in recent memory.  Every candidate enters the race with certain themes they want to emphasize, and a general strategy for winning.  But they also respond to the fluid environment of the race, making adjustments and letting the strategy adapt to events.  Not Obama.  His campaign has had a far clearer sense of each major milestone in the campaign and how to hit it and has been far less responsive to the news cycle. This is unnerving to fans who wonder how Obama can continue to succeed despite losing more than its share of the news-cycle wars.  It's because he continues to think of the war, not the battles.  This week is going to be rough, but consider where the campaigns are now, and how in nearly every way Obama has set the rules of engagement.

1.  Taking experience off the table
.  For the first three months of the general election, McCain wanted a debate about experience and judgment.  He harped endlessly about the surge and mocked Obama's "celebrity," attempting to make him appear dangerously inexperienced.  Obama addressed this by sticking to change as his own theme while burnishing his foreign policy cred.  Traveling to Europe won him early praise but ultimately offered a GOP a news-cycle winning strategy.  They mocked him as "the one"--essentially a Bono-like lightweight who could draw big crowds but couldn't sit across from world leaders.  The problem was that he did sit across from world leaders.  He made an over-enthusiastic speech to AIPAC, but meanwhile, his proposals on a timeline in Iraq became Iraqi and US policy.  McCain mocked and blustered, but he failed to make any progress in the polls.  Had McCain thought the experience issue was really his golden ticket, he wouldn't have selected Sarah Palin as his running mate.  This was a clear admission that experience was a dead issue.

2.  A change election.  Having abandoned experience as the issue, McCain decided on "reform" as a proxy for Obama's "change." When he announced the selection of Palin, he highlighted her reform credentials, and at the GOP convention, both candidates made it a centerpiece of their speeches.  This came at great cost, however--McCain was required to admit that, "We were elected to change Washington, and we let Washington change us."  While this does highlight some of McCain's "maverick" work in the Senate, it sets the Obama campaign up to continuously compare McCain to Bush.  Even more importantly, it sets up the election's home stretch to be...

3. A debate about issues.  In the last two elections, Bush managed to highlight the issues that underscored his strengths and undermined his opponents.  When he talked war, he made Dems seem weak. When he talked tax cuts, he tagged them as elitist.  When he talked faith, he tagged them as secular.  Obama has effectively removed these arrows from McCain's quiver--and thanks to a little luck, he's got a few of those double-dealing arrows of his own (seven houses?--elitist!).  Now that the campaigns are agreed that change is the operable metric for judging the election, Obama can talk issues. He began this in his acceptance speech, outlining exactly what he'll do for America.  McCain dodged the issue in his acceptance, and now Obama is able to demand specifics.   

Move crucially, it allows Obama to tie McCain's policies to Bush's. It was always going to be a little difficult to convince swing voters that McCain was the same as Bush--they just have too much bad blood. But McCain spent so much time in the primaries making sure that he was in accord with the Bush orthodoxy on the issues that he is now saddled with them.  For the next two months, Obama can demand to compare proposals for change in terms of the issues America cares about: health care, the economy, foreign policy, and the environment.  On issue after issue, Obama has the popular solution.  Why else would "drill, baby, drill" have become the mantra in St. Paul?  It's the only issue the GOP have a lead on.

The polls will suck for another week and then level off again as a tie.  But as we head into crunch time, with debates looming and undecideds and swing voters finally starting to tune in, the fight will be about issues Obama has spent months hand-selecting.  Right on schedule.

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    Incidentally, this post grew out of an email I sent to Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo. I assumed that it would never see the light of day, and so I expanded it and made a post here. I was wrong.

  • Kyle B (unverified)
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    Jeff,

    what an interesting piece. I have to admit at first i was a bit hesitant on your logic, but after reading you have me convinced. There are so many great sound bites of McCain touting Bush's policies during primary season, and now he is resorting to a "change" message. The Dem's just need to take their time and when the moment is right give the Republicans some of their own medicine, a little attack!

  • genop (unverified)
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    Talking points versus issue statements. I pray the electorate is smart enough to appreciate the difference.

  • mlw (unverified)
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    After Palin's convention speech, let's not forget that Obama will have a lock on the "change politics" votes. Picking an Ann Coulter style conservative is hardly the way to convince people that you want to reach across the aisle. After 8 years of Rovian politics, does McCain really think that the answer is MORE partisanship?

  • joseph (unverified)
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    Jeff

    What a piece of worthless tripe. I thought the idea of running a campaign was to win not cede the lead to the competition and hope you can pull it out in the ninth inning. There is no guarantee that if Obama takes the high road and talks issues the democrats win. Anyway that kind of campaign has been run before and looked what happened. If the democrats are going to win they are going to have get down and dirty just like the republicans.

  • Voice Over Guy (unverified)
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    The polls are joke This race will be a tough fight to the end but in my heart, Obama/Biden will win the White House but they need a strong showing in the debates which I think it will happen. Palen is no match for Biden but Obama and McCain will be a hard fight.

  • Brian (unverified)
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    Wishful thinking. I think the reverse is true ... America wants change, not socialism. Also, expect Chicago politics/Biden to become more and more prominant in the advertising/national discussion. I don't think Obama expected this, I think it is shaping up as a nightmare scenario for them. You can keep hoping but I think a lot of America is seeing that the emperor has no clothes ...

  • Brian (unverified)
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    Wishful thinking. I think the reverse is true ... America wants change, not socialism. Also, expect Chicago politics/Biden to become more and more prominant in the advertising/national discussion. I don't think Obama expected this, I think it is shaping up as a nightmare scenario for them. You can keep hoping but I think a lot of America is seeing that the emperor has no clothes ...

  • Gregor (unverified)
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    palin is going to make a great FOX newscaster some day. She surely fits their mold. Can't you just see her between Karl Rove, G. Gordon Libby and Oliver North? I sure can. What gives me hope is watching their ratings spiral. I think some of the people are no longer fooled and some of the others won't be fooled for much longer.

  • jonny bullet (unverified)
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    The change that McCain wants is to bash the intellectuals and any one that has European ideas[ap].Maybe you look different "foreign" I believe is the code word,your not a hockey mom ,soccer mom, NASCAR dad, you live in a city and your educated you have a world view and you think it takes a village to help raise your family,-ie schools, extended family, neighbors, friends, then your some how bad or on the fringe maybe even evil, dose that not give you that warm fuzzy feeling? Well be afraid very afraid.The right wing "Conservative" brings something else to mind,Germany a wounded war veteran who wrote a book and was a God fearing right wing conservative who found his country receptive because of their plight after a bitter war and bad economic times. The intellectuals, educated foreigners,ones that were liberal,and folks that didn't "share their values" NOT LIKE US. The Jews fit the bill, different religion, businessmen, intellectuals, liberal, not like us. This right wing group with it's leader invoked Gods name and went on a crusade to right many perceived wrongs and to settle old scores. The church blessed them and their weapons and they went out in Gods name to make the world in their image and well you know the rest.Fiction? Not hardly religion has no place in politics.It seems that to be a christian now we have to wrap our selves in the flag and if you don't you're bad,or unpatriotic, un American. But if You are a true Christian the Christ said give Ceasers things to Ceaser, and that His Kingdom was no part of this world he was not involved in politics. You don't have to be a Christian to be a patriot or pick up a gun for the military to be a patriot just like wrapping your self in the flag and the bible makes a bad person good or a patriot because it doesn't. That man in Germany was wrapped in his flag and the bible and was blessed by the church was he a good man?

  • ORDem (unverified)
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    This race should've been over. No way Obama is anywhere near where he wants to be or should've been. Hello? Anybody home? Can we replace Biden with Hillary? None of this would've happened if Hillary was on the ticket (PUBs would've put up the old white guy instead the Dems did it) but Obama left the barn door open and the PUBS now shut it after their spunky filly ran out of the barn. Sadly, it's going to be a plain, old-fashioned barn burner at this point.

  • LiberalIncarnate (unverified)
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    I do not entirely agree with the "flowery" opinion here. Unlike some pessimists on here, Obama still has a chance to win this, but this is in no way where I think the campaign should be considering all of the factors in play in this election so far, i.e. change, altering the course of the war and Republican cronyism, etc. While there is no doubt that this election was always going to be close (Americans are just too stupid for it not to be), the fact that Obama has fallen behind in some polls is truly disheartening.

  • Greg D. (unverified)
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    I quit making predictions a long time ago, but I am fearful that the Dems have managed to blow one of the greatest political opportunities in the history of the USA.

    As far as this post goes, it sounds a little bit like the old boxing story about what the fighter told his trainer just before he was knocked out - "I'm fine coach, I am letting him punch me in the head repeatedly so he will become over confident."

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    HAHAHA! Here come the GOP trolls... some openly admitting it ("socialism!"), some faking concern ("this should've been over").

    Puhleeze.

    Here's the short version of Jeff's post: Dear John McCain, we agree - this election is about change. Now, what sort of change do you propose? We're about universal health care, bringing our troops home, and fighting climate change. Whaddya got?

  • KTDM (unverified)
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    Good article. As for ORDem, I have always been an Obama supporter (though I had a lot of trouble deciding between Obama and Hillary) and wanted Hillary to be the VP too, but I see Obama's logic. As long as Hillary fights for the Dems as she's promised to do, Obama has 2 very high profile surrogates rather than 1...almost as if he had two VPs. And Hillary can be probably more effective in a cabinet position or in the senate than as VP...think about it, she could still potentially be Obama's running mate in 2012 if he wins and the deck reshuffles a bit...I predict that as a result of the Palin pick the Dems can come a lot closer in Florida than we are right now in the polls, particularly if Hillary spends a LOT of time there. And Biden is one of our best bets to get the blue collar vote of Penn. and Ohio and Michigan. I DO think Obama should have done more to ingratiate himself to Hillary supporters before the convention though. Now we need her desperately, and I hope she recognizes how grateful many Dems like me will be if she really steps up to the plate here.

  • ORDem (unverified)
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    I am not a GOP troll but a life-long Democrat who never got Obama fever. There are many of us who were not entirely sold on Obama and now given his bad judgement regarding the Biden pick over Hillary we have even further doubts. If Obama loses this election (which I hope he doesn't), it is all on Obama, the DNC and his campaign's failure to embrace Hillary as part of the ticket. I see no logic whatsoever in passing on Hillary except Obama was looking past this election and was thinking about his re-election instead. Supporters of Obama and this highly biased site need to wake up before it is too late.

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)
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    I agree with Jeff that the Palin pick weakens GOP ability to criticize Obama on experience. Whether that will lead to a campaigns based on discussion of important issues is another matter. Republicans shy away from such discussion because there is little honest they can say that appeals to anyone but their decidedly minority base.

    There is no limit to the number of anti-Obama issues that can be manufactured, however. The important question is whether or not the media will do their job investigating charges and making their findings clear. Without a functioning Fourth Estate, democracy is illusory.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    When the Rs start using "socialism" as their crutch, they are in trouble. Of course they consider Medicare and Social Security as "socialism." Bring it on.......

    I partially agree Jeff. The analysis of the convention bounces is that it's a wash. After today the tracking polls will pretty much settle into something close to where it was pre-convention until the debates happen.

    The framing of the election debate is there, but content is another matter. The Obama campaign needs to hammer home how much McCain/Palin are more of the extremist right wing Bush agenda. -Weaken and dismantle the necessary infrastructure of government and civil society, de-fund the safety net programs like social security, medicaid, and medicare, destroy the environmental and conservation protections, install more radical right wing activist judges, and carry out the extremist social agenda of James Dobson and others to overturn Roe v Wade and eliminate access to contraception and abortion services, and bring creationism into the schools. Palin's choice makes that clear.

    But..... the "Change" needs to be more clearly and forcefully asserted by Obama/Biden to address the principle concern of the electorate, economic insecurity, by spelling out the plan and specifics to rebuild and restore our industrial base, the technological and transportation infrastructure.

    The second big one is the need for health care security, and what a universal health care system of affordable health insurance for all would look like and cost, with no intervening govt. bureaucrat and choice of plans and phsicians.

    ***McSame is so weak on both counts. Same old, same old... more tax breaks for the wealthy, less regulation of the stock market. Wheeeeee!

    His health care program, -eliminate tax free employer based insurance and substitute it with a tax credit of $2500 a year. Good luck people.. try going out and procuring comprehensive insurance on your own for $200 a month. Some good Harry and Louise ads on the utter devastation this plan would bring to your health coverage would be great!

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    Nothing gratifies quite so much as this:

    Jeff, what an interesting piece.

    and

    Jeff - What a piece of worthless tripe.

    Glad you liked--and hated--it.

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    ORDem, this isn't a thread about Hillary. That horse done been beat.

  • nadja s (unverified)
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    Oh, puleeze. With respect, with all the good thinking you've done, you aren't taking it down to the fundamental level of name-calling.

    Palin knows what she's doing. All she has to do is keep spewing. Who cares if she is lying or not? The media will print what she says. Note that she is targeting Obama. Why doesn't Biden target McCain? Why aren't there more screechers on the Democratic side? Why are we so nice?

    Undecided voters don't think very hard about the issues. That's why they're undecided. So, what will they hear? Why, they'll hear Palin yapping about Obama! They'll hear Inhofe impugning Obama's patriotism! Will they hear the good, thoughtful words of Obama has he explains his positions? Naaah, they'll just eat up the garbage coming out of the mouth of the Republicans.

    Time for some campaign manager to turn the Obama campaign upside down, and begin to attack McCain/Palin on their fossilized beliefs and exstremist personalities. That is what will win over voters to Obama.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    @ nadja s

    I think you are being heard. From Biden, today.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080908/ap_on_el_pr/biden_wisconsin "Her views on everything from global warming to a host of other things, if they are as presented, they are pretty far out there," said Biden, Democrat Barack Obama's running mate, during a town hall-style meeting. "She's going to have to defend those positions."

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    What's your goal here, ORDem?

    So you never got Obama fever, whatever that is. Bully for you.

    It's not going to change who has been chosen for his Veep.

    The most you can accomplish with the venting of your spleen about Hillary is to poison the well. To what end? To help McCain get elected out of spite?

    I seriously don't believe that Hillary would agree with what you're saying here. Not even a little bit.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    Here are some more of Palin's extremist theocratic views: ( A rather kinky geo-political view of the world)

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bruce-wilson/sarah-palins-churches-and_b_124611.html

    Sarah Palin's churches are actively involved in a resurgent movement that was declared heretical by the Assemblies of God in 1949. This is the same 'Spiritual Warfare' movement that was featured in the award winning movie, "Jesus Camp," which showed young children being trained to do battle for the Lord. ..The movement is training a young "Joel's Army" to take dominion over the United States and the world.

    .. Wasilla Assembly of God's Head Pastor Ed Kalnins whose sermons espouse such theological concepts as the possession of geographic territories by demonic spirits and the inter-generational transmission of family "curses". Palin has also been blessed, or "anointed," by an African cleric, prominent in the Third Wave movement, who has repeatedly visited the Wasilla Assembly of God and claims to have effected positive, dramatic social change in a Kenyan town by driving out a "spirit of witchcraft."

    The Wasilla Assembly of God church is deeply involved with both Third Wave activities and theology.... Other major leaders in the movement have also traveled to Wasilla to visit and speak at the church.

    The Third Wave is a revival of the theology of the Latter Rain tent revivals of the 1950s and 1960s led by William Branham and others. It is based on the idea that in the end times there will be an outpouring of supernatural powers on a group of Christians that will take authority over the existing church and the world. The believing Christians of the world will be reorganized under the Fivefold Ministry and the church restructured under the authority of Prophets and Apostles and others anointed by God. The young generation will form "Joel's Army" to rise up and battle evil and retake the earth for God.

  • Marko (unverified)
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    Obama is going to have serious problems vs McCain in a debate. Defending his rhetoric with actual details on taxes and foreign policy issues is not what Obama wants to do. Can he take a rain check on the debates?

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    "here are many of us who were not entirely sold on Obama and now given his bad judgement regarding the Biden pick over Hillary we have even further doubts."

    It's amazing how the trolling continues on this "shoulda picked Hillary" nonsense. You keep hearing it from people like Pat Buchanan, when what it really means is "we WISH he'd picked Hillary, so we could have had the divisive figure we needed to electrify people to the polls."

    I see little evidence the race is tied, or particularly close. Tracking polls--particularly on the heels of the RNC convention--are not predictors of much. Scope the electoral college analyses; you'll see Obama is comfortably ahead, usually with 300 EVs projected or more. His positioning is MUCH better than Kerry's four years ago.

    All of which doesn't even speak to Obama's formidable ground game and excess of funds compared to McCain.

    Relax, chicken littles. I don't necessarily agree with the way Jeff justifies his thesis (expecting Americans to inform their way to his victory is indeed a dicey prospect), but in the end the result is the same: Obama is well positioned for the next 56 days. Be patient.

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    "Obama is going to have serious problems vs McCain in a debate. Defending his rhetoric with actual details on taxes and foreign policy issues is not what Obama wants to do."

    Why not, for heaven's sake? His tax plan has been objectively analyzed as better than McCain's (in terms of broadest and deepest tax cuts at least, which is sadly all people care about), and he has been right on foreign policy while McCain has been badly wrong. The details are more damning than the rhetoric!

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    Here's Joe Biden on fire- in full attack mode of the McCain/Biden

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=955Y3NJTRIE&eurl=http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/

    Some of these trolls who post here are pretty funny. They believe their own party's rhetoric. Socialism??? And taxes.. oh.. let's have some more tax cuts for the wealthiest.. yeah, that's real defensible. Obama is going to have an easy time with McCain on debating taxes. Even if McCain's not having one of his cognitive lapses.

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    Great piece, Jeff -- thanks for the insight.

    From Gallup today...in an article that analyzed the post-convention bounce...

    "Since 1964, the first election year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces, there have been only two examples in which one candidate consistently trailed until the time of his party's convention, but took the lead after and never relinquished it. Those occurred in 1988 for the elder George Bush and 1992 for Bill Clinton."

    One could argue that both Dukakis (1988) and George Bush, Sr. (1992) ran unskilled campaigns -- Obama won't fall into that trap.

    One thing that gives me tremendous hope is the voter registration drives and GOTV efforts taking place not only in Oregon but in Ohio and Florida...there are 600,000 registered African American voters in Florida who didn't vote in 2004 and Obama's campaign is going door to door to ensure that they turn out. Kerry lost the state by a little over 400,000 votes...

  • nadja s (unverified)
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    Bill R: Sorry, but Biden is going to have to be a lot smarmier about his remarks. Really, we're talking going down into gutter territory.

    Why can't he just say: "the governor is an extremist - - she belongs to an extremist church, holds extremist views about creationism, and is your basic socially conservative Republican pretending to be an newcomer. There is nothing new about the governor of Alaska. We've seen it all before."

  • Mike Austin (unverified)
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    Wishful thinking. I think the reverse is true ... America wants change, not socialism.

    You must be in the other one the two Americas that John Edwards was talking about than most of the country. On issue after issue, most of the country is lined up with the Democratic platform.

    If Obama and the Democrats keep saying nice things about McCain, McCain will win. Democrats seem to believe that this is a more sophisticated version of a high-school debating society and that the better-reasoned, issues-oriented arguments will sway the voters.

    The Democrats need to take off the gloves and start using brass knuckles with extreme prejudice. Sometimes you've got to go down into the sewer. That's where the rats are...

  • Steve Hawley (unverified)
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    Obama's VP choice is going to sink him. Biden is an old political hack with bad hair plugs - there's just no way to improve that. It's like putting lipstick on a pig.

    Palin on the other hand is witty, intelligent and very pretty.

    Of course, if the dems loose this election - we'll hear endless stories of voter fraud, when in actuality it boils down to a bad VP pick...

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    Biden-bashers behold: a Palin gaffe on Freddie/Fannie. The first car in what will no doubt be a long train. It's not major, but it's something Biden would never have said because of course he actually knows what Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are.

    It's an election, folks, not American Idol.

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    That last comment about Idol was not directed at Palin, FWIW, but comments like this one "Biden is an old political hack with bad hair plugs." I just don't think American voters are that stupid.

  • Harry Kershner (unverified)
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    Re: "He made an over-enthusiastic speech to AIPAC, but meanwhile, his proposals on a timeline in Iraq became Iraqi and US policy."

    Over-enthusiastic? Is that what you're calling anti-Arab bigotry these days? Ask any Palestinian if Obama was "over-enthusiastic". Where are those of you who were claiming a few months ago that Obama was going to "change" the lack of even-handedness in US treatment of Israel-Palestine? Don't you realize how vulnerable this makes us?

    Furthermore, there is no Iraq "timeline", and there won't be under either an Obama or a McCain administration, not with respect to removal of all corporate and military personnel and dismantling of all hardened bases.

    And your conflation of the Maliki government with the Iraqi people is Bush-like bullshit. The Iraqi people have not been consulted, and your acceptance of that shows contempt for democracy. They want us out, just as we would want them out if they had invaded and occupied our country.

  • ally (unverified)
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    thanks, Jeff, for a thoughtful and different view!

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    @Steve Hawley

    Oh yeah.. "pretty, intelligent and witty". It's true Biden is older, and grey, and has been a senator a long time with an established record and credibility on both sides of the aisle in foreign relations and domestic issues. (Ridiculing his baldness and hair plugs, that's pathetic!) He is beloved by the blue collar working people across the country as a loyal advocate.

    But that doesn't compare to Palin and her radical secessionist ideas, her end time apocalyptic vision of geo-politics, her rejection of science in favor of creationism, her opposition to universal health care, her denial of abortion services to the victims of rape and incest, and her well established alliance with the anti-union box stores of the country. One thing Biden hasn't done. He didn't take public money to install a tanning parlor at considerable expense, in his senate office, as Palin did in her governor's mansion. I think he has his ethics right and his values right. But he's not tanned and pretty like Palin. If you have been to Juneau, you don't tan, you rust. I might add if Obama or Biden used public money to put a tanning parlor in their Senate office, you can imagine what the press would do with that.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    Just the kind of Ad we need to have now from the Obama/Biden campaign. Let's call them on their s**t.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBtbG5xjFBY&eurl=http://www.americablog.com/

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    How do we know she's witty? Because she read someone else's speech? And we damn sure know she's not intelligent (cf Fannie/Freddie for a new example!).

    Talk about biting onto the GOP frame! The woman's an empty pantsuit. (If she wore them...)

  • Gregor (unverified)
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    What we ought to do is show how the Democrats are about people helping each other through their government and Republicans are about corporations helping themselves through our government.

    The Achilles' heel of McCain is the economy. The brass ring for the Republicans time and again is to privitaze social security. Too many boomers are going to be counting on that. The question they need to be asked is, how is their 401k looking these days. There is no spinning that will reduce the holes that have been dug into people's 401ks in the past two years. There are less then two months left.

    It's the economy stupid!

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    One thing that gives me tremendous hope is the voter registration drives and GOTV efforts taking place not only in Oregon but in Ohio and Florida...there are 600,000 registered African American voters in Florida who didn't vote in 2004 and Obama's campaign is going door to door to ensure that they turn out. Kerry lost the state by a little over 400,000 votes...

    And not only should thse voter reg drives give you generalized hope, but they should leaven any concern you might have about these "likely voter" polls.

    Throughout the primaries, Obama proved that he draws lots and lots of votes from "unlikely" voters... people new to the process, and folks who've not voted in years.

    McCain, on the other hand, doesn't have much of that sort of appeal at all. Maybe among moose-hunting hockey moms... but that ain't much of a demo.

  • RW (unverified)
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    Nadja S, much as I hate it, I am beginning to think your way -- time for the attack dawgs to come out, and now. I think the Obama campaign has been smart about sitting tight for a little and letting things perc without obvious firetending from their hands.

    I felt pretty smug about the Palin Debacle, but I'd forgotten about the years I'd spent in Badass Oklahoma with the honest to god rednecks, and I'd rather forsworn thinking about the fundagelicals I've known in my time. Do NOT understimate the drive of this part of the population, nor their willingness to tithe McCain and Palin into power.

    Listening to the rowdy howling of swing state audiences, I felt rather anxious today. It is true, these are the ones who are even lazier than I about scholarship. Whoever cements bullet points the most insistently will leave the stain on the rug, here. This election is NOT a sure thing, and it's hopeful media will be organized and clear about their business.

    Non-neocons DO need to fight like hell. Perhaps Obama and Team could manage to throw horse diamonds but not actually lay down in the stall. Clinton is doing a swell job of maintaining strength in her voice and class in her utterances. The media seems somewhat to be staying up with the barren few anti-Sarah talking points available, but the content is already stultifyingly repetitive.

    I wish for Kucinich, or an Edwards-in-a-Time-Machine, but here we are with who we've got. And I really do not want McCain/Palin.

    I'm at that tipping point, I suppose. Off me arse and go fight.

  • Chuck Butcher (unverified)
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    Jeff, I don't know that Obama has McCain just where he wants him, you never want the opponent ahead - by whatever measure. I do agree that Obama is very powerfully positioned to swat McPOW. How he will go about it is something he and his pros will decide. I know that his decisions so far have worked and they haven't been gutter dives. I know how to take off the gloves and I do, but I am not running and I couldn't run as an Obama type candidate and he has to.

    What people tend to forget is that a candidate defines himself (or lets someone else do it - badly) and turns away from that definition at serious risk and an almost certain loss of the enthusiastic base.

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    I know people aren't gonna like this comment but I still wish he had picked Hillary for VP. I'm not saying he won't win with Biden, and I hope he does, but it would have been less stressful.

    I haven't read through any of the comments so if I'm being redundant I apologize. Seems like we need to stop making fun of Palin and start talking about why she's (and of course McCain) so bad for America right now.

    We also need to make sure the newly registered actually vote on election day - and we need to make sure the young people vote like crazy.

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    Great point, Kari - the 18-22 year old voters aren't usually polled either because they have no voting record in general elections.

    Katy - it's over. Selecting HRC would have opened another can of worms to deal with. Not saying I don't like Hillary - I do. Very much. But we would have different issues had she been selected. The flip-side of that is that Sarah Palin probably wouldn't have been the VP pick. Either way - we can't turn back the clock. This is our ticket, let's focus on it.

    And I agree with Jeff - I think we're in a great spot. I didn't like the news of the bump but have faith McCain will lose his edge if not before the debates then absolutely after. McCain is a gaffe-master. He is a horrible public speaker with a teleprompter and even worse without. Nevermind the stature difference. God bless televised debates! I can't wait.

  • Ted (unverified)
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    One party system folks... Enjoy the puppet show. Spinal Tap will be playing for you next. "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever..."

  • Brendan Steinhauser (unverified)
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    Check out this new book about Barack Obama:

    http://www.amazon.com/Who-REAL-Barack-Obama-generation/dp/1438906056/ref=sr_1_14?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1220927361&sr=1-14

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    As much as I hate hatchet politics, the selection of Palin as the McCain campaign's pit bull was a stroke of genius. Neither Obama nor Biden can attack her without it looking like men beating up on a woman, and her one and Palin's role in this campaign is going to be to take this into the gutter and throw the GOP base its red meat.

    My hope is that the Obama camp hires a tenacious and attractive female spokesperson who speaks Republican -- think Ainsley Hayes from West Wing -- to do nothing but do attacks on and responses to, Sarah Palin.

    Maybe Carla should apply for the job. It totally plays to her strong suit.

  • Buckman Res (unverified)
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    ”Had McCain thought the experience issue was really his golden ticket, he wouldn't have selected Sarah Palin as his running mate.”

    I have to disagree with your analysis. GovP actually has more executive experience than BHO, both as a former mayor and as a governor, which she deftly illustrated in her convention speech. Her bio also presents a far greater wealth of life experience.

    By selecting her JMac actually puts the focus back on BHO’s thin resume. BHO’s selection of Biden was itself an admission of his own experience shortcomings.

    Make no mistake, BHO’s campaign needs to deal with the experience issue in a convincing manner, and soon, even if it means turning the issue on its head and claiming experience doesn’t count. If he fails to win in November it will be due to his ignoring the importance of this issue.

  • (Show?)

    I'm probably going to write a post on this in the next couple days, but another point to make is that Palin's selection looks great now, but it comes at some cost. She's hard-core right wing (creationism, abortion absolutism, etc), which means that McCain was forced to make a decision that shored up his base rather than reached out for independents. At the moment, it looks good because everyone's excited. But will she wear well? Will independents be turned off once they realize she's to Bush's right?

    One thing's for sure: it didn't follow McCain's plan. He wanted to have a veep who accentuated his maverick and bipartisan inclinations (such as they are). His campaign is going badly enough he had to play defense rather than go on offense with a proactive choice like Lieberman.

  • LT (unverified)
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    For all the concern about Hillary vs. Joe Biden, the folks here will not decide the election. Demographic groups ("white married women with children") are misleading. Does everyone believe every working mother with a toddler (or member of other demographic group) thinks the same way?

    If Palin was supposed to be the one to win over Hillary voters, I rather doubt it. Just got an email from an old friend saying, "How could anybody vote for Mcain with the new women he has chosen?". Those feelings exist whether pollsters pick up on them or not!

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    "GovP actually has more executive experience than BHO, both as a former mayor and as a governor, "

    So does a block captain for Amway. So what? She doesn't have ANY national experience, nor foreign policy experience. Obama has both. Plus there's that whole Harvard education and constitutional law professor thing. Call me crazy, but an up-and-down knowledge of the foundation and continuing basis of American governance seems like good experience. Just me, maybe.

    (Obama had a great response to the idea that she has foreign policy cred because she knows Russia is close to Alaska--he said, "Well, I know where it is too; I saw it on a map." !!)

  • KTDM (unverified)
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    I don't think Palin was selected to appeal to Clinton voters. I think she was selected to solidify the base so that McCain could dive to the center and pretend to be all mavericky and attract the Clinton voters himself.

  • RW (unverified)
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    Been searching for youth polls that look at more than young and fired-up ideologues. NOt finding it. Suspect my own progeny is more the norm than not. He was ready to vote last cycle. One more rigged up election process was enough to make him care to watch, discuss, but feel it is futile to actually vote. He really and truly does not feel that, given the current system of rigs, that his vote could ever be crucial.

    How am I to fight this? I want him to vote. I am trying to induce him to make this windmill his job no matter what. He views the ultimate reality of the political process as SILLY. He also knows that he may experience, as I did at that reelection, such a rage and disappointment as he could not imagine. I just never really knew I could feel SO angry about such a thing!

    I cannot find the ammo I need - not even a lucid description of the process and machinery to make him believe that voting contraptions and the electoral college will not simply snatch from him his due excercise.

  • Gregor (unverified)
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    I vote for myself. I can sleep knowing at least I did something about the election. I also participated for that same reason, so I could say I fought against the reelection of Dubya. It was the reich who declared anyone but Bush was not a campaign. I think it really was and it was a shame that track was abandoned. We needed change then almost as much as we need it now. I'll sign up to work for Obama. Better to die like a man then live like a chicken, as the Russkies are fond of saying.

  • (Show?)

    I'm probably going to write a post on this in the next couple days, but another point to make is that Palin's selection looks great now, but it comes at some cost. She's hard-core right wing (creationism, abortion absolutism, etc), which means that McCain was forced to make a decision that shored up his base rather than reached out for independents.

    Great point. I made that point today, in fact. I was talking to a friend of mine who is a registered Republican. She loves her guns, she loves her "liberty," and she loves her "conservative" fiscal policy, but if you ever told her she'd have to carry a baby to term if she didn't want to, she'd shoot you! I said to her, "You know you're actually a Libertarian." She laughed and almost agreed with me. Her children are all Democrats so we chatted about that. She laughed when I told her about my joke this weekend - this guy came to my garage sale and said he was looking for "guns, knives, muskets, bayonets - that sort of thing." I said "I'm sorry, I think you're looking for Sarah Palin's garage sale." He laughed, too.

    What the Republicans have done has been to spit in the face of the rules of campaign politics. In a PRIMARY you run extreme right (or left, as the case may be) - shore up your base. In the general, you come back to the MIDDLE to pick up NAVs and swings. McCain is doing things the exact opposite! I told my friend today that I felt for her - she has a candidate whose running mate could easily become President within four years and that running mate opposes ~50% of what she believes in! I don't envy those positions - they have to vote their souls or their wallets (so they think). Frankly, I would hate to make that choice. I also said to that gun-totin', female Republican friend, "you may not like Obama's economic plan, but at least you know what it is - I have no idea what McCain's plan is - I'm not sure that he does!" She agreed with that as well.

    Anyway, what McCain has done has been to run to the middle during his primary and then gone right? There's a reason that rules are rules and I don't fancy this as the exception! The swings he's trying to pick up are pro-choice Republican women. Let's face it - that's who he needs to win. And pro-choice, socially-open, Republican women aren't stupid. My mom was one. Although she did die a Democrat (told you she wasn't stupid!). But the socially liberal, fiscally conservative swing vote will most likely go with their soul over (what they believe is) their wallet. I belive once the new-and-shiny factor of Sarah Palin wears off, that will start to show in the polls as well.

  • cuffy meigs (unverified)
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    Bush's policies are not that bad. The Iraq war put AQ on the defensive, not offense such as during the Clinton years. Our economy is in good shape. Trickle down economics works. Revenues to the govt. are up 19% since GWB took office. The wage problem today is with the middle class. Thank illegal immigrants for that. Put the blame on Pelosi Reid LLC. Raise minimum wage, do not drill, etc. Obama's socialism is not the answer.

    McCain/Palin 08

  • edison (unverified)
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    "Palin on the other hand is witty, intelligent and very pretty." LMFAO! Oh, and cuffy, wanna share some of your salvia, dude? You obviously have some of the good stuff!

  • sharona (unverified)
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    Screw issues. It is time to get ruthless.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    Great story in the Washington Post today. Sarah Palin, the reformer, bills the state of Alaska per diem to live in her own home. What a gig! Fits right in with her billing the state of Alaska to install a tanning parlor in the governor's mansion for that small part of the year she actually stays there. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/08/AR2008090803088.html?hpid=topnews

    In other news Ed Koch endorses Obama,says that Jews in Florida will find Palin a very scary VP choice, like he does. Might be good to have Koch campaign with Obama down there. This is the same Koch who endorsed GWB last time around. Not exactly a flaming liberal. Yesterday's polling (Rasmussen) has Florida dead even, so the Dems might flip Florida because of the McCain choice of Palin.

  • Steve Hawley (unverified)
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    "Screw issues. It is time to get ruthless."

    It's time to get ruthless? Come on, democrats aren't even that tough on terrorists!

  • Ben (unverified)
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    Florida is McCain's now.

    Seniors will move in droves to McCain, seeing him as the seasoned throw back to perceived better times and Palin as the sign that America tradition is alive and well.

    With the Ds in attack mode calling Palin and her supporters stupid it's a growing problem for Obama.

  • sharona (unverified)
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    In the words of GWB, Bring It On. The difference between McCain/Palin and Bush Administration? Lipstick.

  • Ben (unverified)
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    "The difference between McCain/Palin and Bush Administration? Lipstick."

    Wow how Hufffington of you.

    Up thread addressed that.

    "Talking points versus issue statements. I pray the electorate is smart enough to appreciate the difference."

    I don't get how the left thinks this current D talking point that Palin is Bush with lipstick is usefull.

    I guess when you're out of material you go with what you got?

  • Scott in Damascus (unverified)
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    Cuffy:

    Thanks for the laugh: "Our economy is in good shape. Trickle down economics works." But let's review the evidence, in the retail market alone:

    Ann Taylor closing 117 stores nationwide.

    Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherines closing 150 stores nationwide

    Talbots will close all 78 of its kids and men’s stores plus another 22 underperforming stores.

    Gap Inc. closing 85 stores

    Foot Locker to close 140 stores

    Wickes Furniture is going out of business and closing all of its stores. The 37-year-old retailer that targets middle-income customers, filed for bankruptcy protection last month.

    Levitz - the furniture retailer, announced it was going out of business and closing all 76 of its stores in December. The retailer dates back to 1910.

    Home Depot store closings 15 of them amid a slumping US economy and housing market. The move will affect 1,300 employees. It is the first time the world’s largest home improvement store chain has ever closed a flagship store.

    Movie Gallery – video rental company plans to close 400 of 3,500 Movie Gallery and Hollywood Video stores in addition to the 520 locations the video rental chain closed last fall as part of bankruptcy.

    Sprint Nextel - 125 retail locations to close with 4,000 employees following 5,000 layoffs last year.

    Wilsons the Leather Experts – closing 158 stores

    Bombay Company: to close all 384 U.S.-based Bombay Company stores.

    KB Toys closing 356 stores around the United States as part of its bankruptcy reorganization.

    CompUSA (CLOSED).

    So Cuffy, have any insight into the jobless rate, inflation, deregulation of the mortagage industry, or the new federal budget deficit out today?

  • Robin Ozretich (unverified)
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    Okay Ben, I'll bite...

    Give me an example or two of significant differences between Sarah Palin and GW Bush.

    Then ask yourself why American voters who are deeply dissatisfied with the direction our country has taken would want to elect another pair of Republicans to the White House?

  • genop (unverified)
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    "Give me an example or two of significant differences between Sarah Palin and GW Bush." Wellll, Bush is a man's man, who only wears lipstick in private and, including his new pup "Sarah Barracuda", he now has a pack of pit bulls. He kennels his favorite, "Cheney" in a bunker. Sorry, didn't mean to steal Ben's thunder.

  • sharona (unverified)
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    The lipstick reference is a useful reminder that Sarah Palin does not represent change. But she IS smart politics. That is something the Obama campaign needs more of. I think it is enough of "My friend McCain, the respected hero, is simply wrongheaded..." kind of rhetoric that we heard at the Dem convention, and Past the Time for the truth about where the Republicans have taken this country. I am ready for images of people drowning in the streets of New Orleans. Surely, if the Rs can show buildings coming down on 9/11, that is fair game...

  • genop (unverified)
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    Why stop there "sharona", how about a slide show: Cheney solemnly declaring WMD's in Iraq, Bush announcing the preemptive strike, on deck of the carrier declaring victory, vetoing S-CHIP, Libby in cuffs, Cheney in bunker, drowning victims from Katrina, "heckuva job Brownie". The final slide: McCain/Palin, four more years.

  • Harry Kershner (unverified)
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    Rebecca Whetstine said about her son, "He really and truly does not feel that, given the current system of rigs, that his vote could ever be crucial. How am I to fight this?"

    What you and all DP supporters need to answer for your son is why nothing has been done about the election stealing techniques that Greg Palast and Robert Kennedy are reporting on (Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Calls for Impeachment). Just as it was with impeachment of the war criminals in chief, it's the DP who have impeded the fair elections movement. If the majority of Americans were aware of this, they would vote for your flawed candidates. As it is, however, we are being set up for another stolen election, and Nader should expect to again be blamed for DP ineptitude and complicity.

    Ted said, "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever..."

    And we need to turn up the dial to "11" so everyone can hear it.

  • sharona (unverified)
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    Ohhh, genop, i can picture it now. all the idiocy of the last eight years with some dramatic music in the background. and then- last frames, music swells- picture of beautiful old woman, holding placard- Hope. Child in an Apple Orchard- Change. Union Worker- Innovation. Classroom teacher- Education. I approve this message. Fade to -Obama/Biden- Change we can believe in.

  • sharona (unverified)
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    And let's not forget the bush-mccain kiss, and that photo of bush and mccain blowing out candles on the McCain birthday cake while New Orleans drowns... a whole series of ruthless ads that play on emotion. I want Obama to see the ad and CRINGE because he never thought he would stoop so low! Let's win ugly for once, instead of being the graceful loser ala Gore and Kerry...

  • Gregor (unverified)
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    Ben's posts can all be summed up as follows: Blah, blah, blah. Dems are frightened losers.

    In his church of Palintology [MSNBC], there is no criticizing Palin or McCain. Palin makes a remark about how hockey moms wear lipstick and pitbulls don't. We reference it and we're criticized. Frankly, I was on it of my own accord before I saw it at Huffington Post.

    Here's another one, she's got swagger in a skirt. It's the false bravado of Dubya all over again. A delusional overconfident sense of macho that has led us into Iraqq with the blind Zom-Bushes like Ben cheering all the way. Do you have stock in the military industrial complex, because that's where the billions go each month and from there, probably overseas, because it ain't showing up in our economy. If it was, why are all those stores closing?

  • (Show?)

    Right after Obama's speech on foreign policy, the prediction markets swung dramatically back to him. Breathing, breathing....

    Still, we can't forget that this election is ultimately up to us.

  • Jenny (unverified)
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    For those of you who feel that Obama is not a socialist, look at the facts. I cannot vote for somebody that does not look at history and understand that socialism does not work. When asked during the primaries why he wants to double the capital gains tax, even though it is proven that the government sees more revenue when the CGT is low, Obama responds "Because it's fair". As George Will once said "Fair is a four letter word", and for good reason. Social security, welfare, health care, education-these are some of the worst government programs out there, and the government's answer is to sink more wasted money into it. That is also Obama's answer. He wants to decrease the national debt, but at the same time enact universal health care (ask any Canadian how they feel about that, by the way). Not to mention-Medicare, Medicaid, any Vet programs-they are the worst health care programs in the nation-all government ran-and you actually want them to take control of health care in general! When are people going to stop relying on the government to fix their problems and start helping themselves, and if they so choose other people? When are people going to stop blaming the corporations and realize that the private sector is much less harmful than any government ran sector? Obama is the voice for bigger government, more taxes, more government controlling your life. If people really wanted to change something, vote for McCain-at least this will cause gridlock so the government can't do anything! Why do you think Clinton was such a great President!

  • johnnie (unverified)
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    Jeff: Your Blue Oregon's Bill O'Rielly!

    "Nothing gratifies quite so much as this:

    Jeff, what an interesting piece.

    and

    Jeff - What a piece of worthless tripe.

    Glad you liked--and hated--it."

  • johnnie (unverified)
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    Regarding Palin's Per Diem...

    A 30-second google search shows that she did not inappropriately or illegally claim per diems:

    (http://fin.admin.state.ak.us/dof/ak_admin_manual/resource/60t.pdf)

    M&IE Meals and incidental expense allowance. The portion of per diem that reimburses travelers for the cost of meals and necessary incidental expenses including tips, laundry expenses, and other personal costs of travel.

    The per diem consists of two parts, meals and incidental expenses, and lodging.

    Per Diem Per diem allowance is a daily payment instead of reimbursement for actual expenses for lodging, meals, and incidental expenses. It is separate from transportation expenses and other miscellaneous expenses.

    Residence The residence of a traveler is the location, or within 50 miles thereof, where the traveler maintains the primary dwelling. If a traveler maintains multiple residences, the commissioner of the department shall designate the residence that bears the most logical relationship to the traveler's duty station as the traveler's primary residence. Factors to be considered in determining the primary residence include: the time ordinarily spent performing duties at each location; the degree of business activity at each location; the relative amount of state wages earned at each location. Agencies may also contact the Division of Finance for assistance. [NOTE - obviously the governor of Alaska's duty station is not Wasilla, and so her primary residence is the gov's mansion]

    M&IE Rules for Specific Situations ...If a traveler maintains a dwelling at their destination and it is available to them [NOTE - think Wasilla], they will be entitled to only an M&IE allowance for normal workdays. [NOTE - which is what she claimed] An M&IE allowance for other than normal workdays is not allowed.

    Alaska Administrative Manual - Accounting Travel 60.28 If a traveler is temporarily returned to the traveler’s duty station while on a long-term assignment and is continuing to receive a long-term lodging per diem, the traveler is not entitled to any M&IE allowance while at the duty station. [NOTE - she did not claim per diem while at governor's mansion]

    The document cited by the WaPost clearly shows she did not claim lodging while staying at her Wasilla house.

    Perhaps the washington post ought to do some reporting rather than disseminating Obama's talking points. Or maybe they are acting "like a heroin addict" like MSNBC I mean seriously, why isn't the headline, "Sarah Palin Followed Alaska's Per Diem Policy"

    Again, McCain will win if this is the best that Team Obama can do.

    Stay Classy...

    <hr/>

    Buried in the Post's Article:

    Gov. Palin has spent far less on her personal travel than her predecessor: $93,000 on airfare in 2007, compared with $463,000 spent the year before by her predecessor, Frank Murkowski. He traveled often in an executive jet that Palin called an extravagance during her campaign. She sold it after she was sworn into office.

    "She flies coach and encourages her cabinet to fly coach as well," said Garnero, whose job is equivalent to state controller. "Some do, some don't."

    Leighow said that the governor's staff has tallied the travel expenses charged by Murkowski's wife: $35,675 in 2006, $43,659 in 2005, $13,607 in 2004 and $29,608 in 2003. Associates of Murkowski said the former governor was moose hunting and could not be reached to comment.

    <hr/>

    The state capital, Juneau, (which is cut off from the rest of the state) is over 800 miles from Wasilla. I would very much like to see Democrats finger-wag at Palin's desire to maintain her family life while working.

    <hr/>

    Who pays for Binden's daily trips between Delware and DC? Answer at:

    http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/expend_detail.php?cid=N00001669&excode=A10&cycle=2008&page=8

  • (Show?)

    So Jeff, do you think Obama is going to start emphasizing change again? For two months before the convention he was busy reassuring the media and official elites that he won't rock the boat too much. He didn't change his actual positions much (telecom immunity in FISA bill and AIPAC stance being exceptions) but started being clearer in public about what his positions are. I think he deflated the change bubble considerably by doing so. Evidently he was persuaded to his FISA position by his likely first choice as a Supreme Court nominee, Cass Sunstein, who probably would at least uphold abortion rights but is unreliable at best on civil liberties and presidential powers.

    He has the wrong position on the occupation & war in Iraq and has lost momentum that came from people thinking (wrongly) that he was an anti-war candidate because he emphasized his initial opposition to it to fight Clinton and Edwards. Now it is clear that his position is not that different from Bush's & McCain's, their coming into alignment with him is not actually a big change on their part. Meanwhile he intends to expand the military budget and escalate the war in Afghanistan. He won't be able to pay for his domestic program on that basis.

    I think that by giving up the war & peace issue and the way our bloated military spending is dragging down the economy he has very much put his chances in jeopardy.

    And he has moved closer to them on domestic energy policy, rather than differentiating himself, not that it was all that different to begin with -- he touts the myth of "clean coal" too, and is a bit murkier about nuclear but suggests that there is an answer to the radioactive waste & pollution problem, which there isn't.

    Since I only heard his convention speech and didn't see it, I have an impression that it must have been different to see it, even on t.v., because other people have been more impressed by it than I was hearing it on the radio.

    He got into naming a bunch of program proposals to bat away the charge of "all rhetoric." But he doesn't seem to be doing compare & contrast, e.g. on health care. Why is his approach better than McCain's? He isn't saying.

    Personally I'm both worried and demoralized. The way he's running it's hard for me to be positively engaged, and my negativity about McCain is not a great motivator by itself. Probably I need to develop a McCain checklist to focus on, but it would be nice if Obama, or his campaign, actually did some of that work himself and circulated it.

  • johnnie (unverified)
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    Instead of focusing on Change, Obama sends out fancy dress shoed DNC dirt diggers.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122098190668515511.html?mod=opinion_journal_political_diary

    Factcheck.org will continue be real busy correcting the DNC smears coming from Wasilla.

  • sidney (unverified)
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    This should heat up the ObamaCons.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVLQhRiEXZs

    Sid

  • genop (unverified)
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    In the unfortunate event the electorate fails to see through the ill fitting mantle of change assumed by McCain/Palin, do you think Cheney will remain in the bunker?

  • genop (unverified)
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    Sid - "Sex education to kindergartners". Without the benefit of any research, my hunch is he advocated anti-predatory education to young children. The purveyors of morality deem it "sex education" in a pathetic attempt to demonize an important message to children. A tactic McCain heartily approves of.

  • Jiang (unverified)
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    Good for Obama! Are we anywhere near where we want to be? How come the gap if he's with us?

  • (Show?)

    Chris, Obama's been pretty consistent throughout the election. I think you're jumping the gun on Sunstein (we've discussed this in the past), but his positions are far to the left of McCain, and to the left of his party on some issues. Notably, in his acceptance speech, he seemed to sign onto Gore's ten-year challenge.

    He's never been a peace candidate. His foreign policy is based on multilateral engagement, a radical shift from the neocons. His economic plan would shift the tax burden away away from the bottom and onto the top 5%. His health care plan isn't as good as Edwards', but it's light years ahead of McCain's, which would be the biggest boondoggle in modern American public policy.

    Down the list his positions are so much better than McCain. Dunno from where your lassitude arises. All systems go.

  • KTDM (unverified)
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    Check out George Lakoff's latest, if you haven't seen it--I think he has some excellent points...

    http://www.truthout.org/article/george-lakoff-warns-dems-reality-based-arguments

    Reason, truth, reality, evidence will not matter as much as framing to a lot of people...

    In that vein, McCain is "rash and dangerous," "hot-tempered and a loose cannon"..."just look at how he called his wife a "c**t" in 1992." How many of the women who are going for McCain now have ever been called that by their spouse? Sadly, too many...but on the other hand, many have not and could not imagine it. Let's revisit that topic. As well as Vicki Iseman. Also, the 7 houses got significant traction, as did the elitist argument...we need to keep hammering there...McCain is trying fairly successfully to steal that message, and we need to steal it right back. Ask why Cindy didn't want to release her tax statements...

    It also strikes me that it's about time to ask a standard "What are you getting for your tax money?" question...

    As for Palin, who I think is getting too much attention from everyone, she is extremist and so far outside the mainstream of American values and thinking that she doesn't really understand most people in America. Etc etc etc.

  • Ben (unverified)
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    "As for Palin, who I think is getting too much attention from everyone, she is extremist and so far outside the mainstream of American values and thinking that she doesn't really understand most people in America. Etc etc etc."

    But we are lucky enough to have liberals explain the conservative Palin and whaty mainstream America is?

    Right after they explain how 911 was an inside job?

    Or how war criminals Bush and Chaney like killing people?

    Or how Habeus Corpus is lost? The Constitution shredded?

    Bless you for your help in explaining these matters.

    Oh sorry about the bless you think.

  • Gina (unverified)
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    Obama's lip stick / pig remark ... and, Biden's unsavory children with special needs remarks show us what a couple of creeps these two candidates are. In lieu of Sarah Palin's comment about hockey moms, pit bulls and lip stick, Obama's lip stick/ pig remark was extremely demeaning. Even though I am not an Obama supporter, at least I thought he had some degree of class and sophistication. He can try to cover his tracks by saying that the lip stick remark was not directed towards Governor Palin, but anyone with half a brain knows that's exactly what he meant. I think Obama knows his campaign is in real trouble, and that's why he's stooping to such desperate, insulting and distasteful attacks. Obama is definitely not Presidential material.

  • KJB Eugene (unverified)
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    With all the the-sky-is-falling posts on the other blogs, it's nice to see this. Palin is the Macarena of this campaign, once the novelty dies off and it's time to debate issues, then we'll see what's what (Can't wait to see Biden take on Palin.)

    Folks, we're in very good shape right now. Look at voter registration. Remember that McCain is now limited to federal funding while Obama has record donations on hand. Look at an electoral map; all Obama has to do is to hang onto the the states Kerry won in 2004 and pick up a mere handful of the current swing states and he's in. Of course it's going to be close and we can never become complacent, but we're doing much better than the MSM would have you believe.

    As for the people still longing for Hillary, you do realize that the Repubs have spent years dreaming of running against her, right? If she had won the nomination or been picked as VP, they'd be raining hellfire down upon us right now. Right or not, fair or not, she's damaged goods. Sorry.

    Hell, all of the right-wing trolls wouldn't be here if we weren't doing something right...

  • saxaboom (unverified)
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    Bottome line -

    Either Obama at top or ticket and Hillary at bottom or reverse and Dem's win this year.

    It would look desperate for Obama to drop Biden at this late stage but that's exactly what he should do to turn the tide.

    4 more years of R's in the big house unless this happens.

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    Jeff, I know Obama's never been a peace candidate, but a chunk of the enthusiasm for him was people misinterpreting him as one. I think he'd do better if he were more of one, and I think McCain's relative strength in the poll numbers compared to Bush's & "the Republican brand's" is partly because Obama has clarified the smallness of the distinction on that issue. I also think it hampers him on the domestic side, both rhetorically and, if he should be elected, practically.

    That said, TorridJoe has a point insofar as the national poll numbers in part reflect very lopsided McCain margins in much of the Southeast and Plains, which don't help him so well in the electoral college.

    Obama has never inspired me. He's too much like (Bill) Clinton on policy, which I know is a good thing in many people's books but not mine. I think post-racialism is a myth & think that post-partisanship is a bad idea especially if your opponents aren't playing the same tune. But, he's gotten this far without my enthusiasm and I don't suppose it will make much difference one way or another.

    But I do worry about the polls.

  • KTDM (unverified)
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    Boy there's a lot of hand-wringing and finger pointing in here. There's no time for "if onlys" or getting too queasy about the obvious political choices Obama has to make right now. And everyone is an expert on how to run a campaign once the polls drop. Come on, we need to suck it up, people, and get to work supporting the best candidate we've had in a long, long time. Thanks again for the post, Jeff.

  • Ben (unverified)
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    "Palin is the Macarena of this campaign"

    So the lofty Blues are also anti-Macarena?

    That works.

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    Interesting story on NPR, said "what Obama doesn't realize is that he's currently being Swiftboated."

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)
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    Jenny wrote:

    For those of you who feel that Obama is not a socialist, look at the facts. I cannot vote for somebody that does not look at history and understand that socialism does not work.

    Jenny, you are operating in a political fairytale universe with evil [socialism] and good [not socialism] with nothing in between. That is not how government works. All developed nations use both market and social approaches in pursuit of the good life for their citizens. We can discuss what balance of strategies works best at a particular time in a particular place, but your over-simplified analysis is useless in discussing policy alternatives.

    I suggest you try six months without Fox News.

  • ben (unverified)
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    Yeah and listen to 6 months of Thom Hartman. He'll explain how "monopolist, corporate conservatives are deliberatley bankrupting the country. And the only reason they haven't pushed the final button is they are waiting for Obama to take office first."

    So we have the conservative corporate machine simultaneously fixing another elction to make sure McCain wins while at the same time bankrupting the country for when Obama takes over?

    Progressive mental gymnastics.

  • johnnie (unverified)
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    You'd think Harvard would have taught Obama about Sony:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/green_jobs.html

    Tom: The law of unintended consequences always rear's it's head and all government programs, even those with built in check's and balances, evolve into permanent socialistic "rights".

    Nobody, not even The One,is smart enough to figure out to forecast or define the future.

  • palin will pale (unverified)
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    Nice analysis, but McCain also has Obama where he wants him.

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)
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    johnnie,

    So do you support eliminating the US military, public roads, the FBI, public schools, federal insurance of bank accounts, social security, and FDA approval of new pharmaceuticals? That would be consistent with your rhetoric, as all are socialistic in nature.

    If so, you are radically out of line with majority political opinion. You are entitled to your opinion, but as far as electoral politics is concerned, your opinion is irrelevant.

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    Johnnie, you think markets & deregulation don't have "unintended consequences"?

    You know what b-u-b-b-l-e spells?

    Unregulated markets fluctuate wildly and in the 19th through early 20th centuries regularly produced protracted deep depressions that dispossessed millions and were very hard for business people and investors to get out of.

    The idea of market regulation at that time was closely tied to the idea of a "regulator" on steam engines, devices that enabled maintenance of a consistency of pressure and above all prevented development of pressure that would blow the whole thing up.

    Unregulated markets blow up a lot.

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    Jenny,

    I don't "feel" that Obama is not a socialist, I think and know that he is not. You don't know what socialism is.

    Socialism means collective, not-for-profit ownership of the means of production (land and capital) and to a certain extent, those of exchange. The most historically prominent forms of socialism have involved ownership by the state, but there are also forms that involve private sector co-operatives, in both producer and consumer forms.

    Liberalism, even in its modern, "non-classical" varieties, on the whole tends not to support state ownership and not to be very interested in co-operatives. That's why self-identified socialists (as opposed to people labeled by people like you) tend to be critical of liberals, and why more radical or left-wing socialists often accuse those less radical of not being socialists at all, but being liberals, used as a term of abuse.

    Taxation, government regulation of markets and social programs are not socialist, certainly not inherently or exclusively so. Under feudalism and other non-capitalist, forms of society based on ascribed, inherited status (aristocracies, castes etc.) there is both taxation and regulation of markets, and even redistribution of wealth, though often upwards or to favored institutions such as religious ones. (BTW, George Will likes to call himself a "tory," a conceit referring to forms of conservatism that invoke authority and community and the obligations of the hereditarily wealthy to the community & esp. the poor, and don't make markets a complete shibboleth.)

    The socialist tradition in the U.S. has never been too strong, and since the Cold War has become minuscule. That's why people like you, and Gordon Smith, and Republican/conservative ideologues generally can sort of get away with your vacuous smear-lies.

    It is true that one set of people who like to label themselves "progressive" do so out of an effort to distinguish themselves from liberals from the left, but in practice in the U.S. have to ally themselves with liberals as the best that they can get. But that doesn't make liberals socialists.

    An example of this kind of distortion is the labeling of government-provided health insurance for all ("single payer") as "socialized medicine." Actually, it is socialized health insurance, but not socialized medicine in the sense that one sees in the U.K., where the government provides medical care, owning the hospitals and clinics and directly employing the doctors, nurses and other health workers.

    As for your comments on health systems, you simply are wrong. In systematic surveys, Canadians and Europeans consistently express more favorable views of the health-care systems in their countries than do U.S. Americans. Likewise Medicare and V.A. system participants express higher levels of satisfaction with those systems than does the population as a whole with our (non) system as a whole.

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    "He can try to cover his tracks by saying that the lip stick remark was not directed towards Governor Palin, but anyone with half a brain knows that's exactly what he meant"

    Anyone with more than half a brain--which cuts out most McCain voters--realizes it's a pathetic attempt to display phony outrage about a phrase McCain himself has used on the stump.

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)
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    I'm trying to understand this bizarre "lipstick on a pig" flap. It's clear the Republican politicians, including John McCain, use the phrase frequently. Yet, they go ballistic when Obama utters it. The closest analogy I can come up with is use of the term "nigger." When used by white folk, it is considered, rightly, I believe, racist. Yet African Americans, particularly young urban ones, use it as a term of endearment.

    So, I wonder if Republicans believe they can use "lipstick on a pig" while Obama using it is an outrage because Republicans consider themselves lipstick wearing pigs.

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    Whoops, sort of forgot about this thread. Chris:

    Obama has never inspired me. He's too much like (Bill) Clinton on policy, which I know is a good thing in many people's books but not mine. I think post-racialism is a myth & think that post-partisanship is a bad idea especially if your opponents aren't playing the same tune.

    Odd. I find him nothing like Clinton, who never inspired me, either. (I wrote in Mario Cuomo in '92 and voted Nader in '96.) Obama, on the other hand, is the first general election candidate who has ever inspired me. The sweep of history creates opportunities for different kind of leadership. Clinton, who was a cynical street-fighter, won in a conservative era and managed to govern successfully while conservatism was ascendent. I suspect that's the only shot we had in the 90s.

    But now the times are different. Conservatism, such as the GOP have exploited it, is in tatters. The only thing left are lies and viciousness. There is a window of opportunity for re-making politics in the next decade. (If McCain wins, it will take a different course than if Obama is elected, but nevertheless, things are mid-change.) How will politics be remade? What form will they take? Obama is important because he can begin to guide that process.

    I do believe in progress. I think that if he's elected, the effects on race relations will be transformed. We won't notice it for a generation, but looking back, we'll see how transformative it was. You're also right that post-partisanship is a mirage. But what's not a mirage is a turn away from hyper-partisanship and a single-minded focus on gathering and exercising power. In the dichotomy of liberty and equality, the left is the equality party. I see Obama as a figure who can re-introduce the myth of collectivism into society. I believe it will be a powerful antidote to the myth of individualism that has turned gangrenous on us.

    Clinton could never have done these things. He's a creature of hyper-partisanship, and he bought into the myth of liberty. That was a dark alley Dems went down, and we were beaten brutally by the thugs of Rove and Co. But now we have a chance to come blinking into the light. I'm hopeful.

  • saxaboom (unverified)
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    Hand-wringing? There's still time to correct this colossal mistake. Joe would stand aside in a NY minute.

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/biden-hillary-a.html

  • johnnie (unverified)
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    C&T: So the fantasy land between capitalist and socialist economic social systems is.....liberalism? Poppycock! There is no such economic division. Please cite economic papers (peer reviewed) showing this new form of economic social system.

    There are mixed economic systems but they are not, nor ever have been defined as liberalism.

    What's next, you two are going to tout Intelligent Design as a science based theory?

    T: Market forces interjected with limited regulation has proved to be the fairest way to distribute limited resources and create new technologies.

    Pure research (LHC, National Labs, etc.) are areas the government should fund and support. From there the market's will develop viable alternatives to engineer and bring to the market.

    History has shown that when governments get involved beyond the pure research stage they don't efficiently select the best technologies and the country suffers economically. It would be the same if one private monopoly chose all of the technologies for a country.

    Politicians always suffer from Hayek's 'fatal conciet' because they believe they can violate the basic laws of economics.

    C: When one entity selects technologies to advance over an entire social system there is no such thing as a bubble - it's worse.

    Case examples:

    Cuba vs. Florida

    North Korea vs. South Korean.

    Did you see the US soccer match vs. Cuba? The infrastructure is still stuck in the 1950's. Coincidence? I think not.

    Also, Cuba's heathcare system is a fallacy. Read Against All Hope by Armando Valladres.

    He was at Harvard, speaking to students. In the Q&A, the kids spouted at him the usual line about Cuba: health care, literacy, and blacks. They had been carefully taught it by their teachers. And Valladares answered, in essence, “It’s all untrue — a pack of lies. But even if it were true: Can’t a country have those things without dictatorship, without tyranny, without gulags, without torture — with freedom?”

  • Bob Tiernan (unverified)
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    Jeff Alworth:

    I have no doubt that the Obama camp feels they've got McCain right where they want him.

    Bob T:

    What a spin! That's like saying that Custer had the Indian warriors right where he wanted them, right up to the end.

    Jeff Alworth:

    Obama has run a campaign unlike any we've seen in recent memory

    Bob T:

    Well, I agree with that one. I've never seen an empty suit get this far before for so high a position. But can he deal with these sinking poll numbers by throwing water bottles at them? I don't think so. "L-l-l-look, uh-uh-uh-uh-uh,oo-ah-guh-duh..."

    Bob Tiernan

  • Harry Kershner (unverified)
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    Jeff Alworth said, "I suspect [Clinton's] the only shot we had in the 90s."

    With Perot running, I could have won. Chris Lowe is correct to worry about Obama's regressive performance. As those who bought into his false representation during the primary find out he's merely Republican-lite, they'll either vote for third party candidates or for McCain, who, after all, was Kerry's preferred running mate.

    Chris L: Be careful about quoting those poll numbers.

    One more thing about "socialism": many who call themselves "socialists" consider it to be the same thing as democracy, if what we mean by democracy is that everyone who has a stake is able to participate in policy decisions. Americans would choose public control over many aspects of society if it were decided democratically.

    And by the way, the current bail-out of the financial system is socialism, but only for the rich, especially rich foreign investors. You Republicans should be out in the streets screaming about that and demanding that no more welfare be paid to the rich. (That's if you're not hypocrites.)

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)
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    johnnie,

    You need to understand political language if you are going to discuss politics outside of the Limbaugh/Fox/Rove rhetorical universe. Neither Chris Lowe nor I praised socialism in the Soviet or North Korean sense of it. Actually, neither of us praised it at all.

    Whether in the expansive sense of "socialist" I used [in reply to Jenny], or in the strict sense of "socialism" that Chris Lowe used, making the statement that Obama is a socialist and socialism is a bad thing is silly. Certainly, Obama does not support state ownership of all productive assets [Chris Lowe's use]. While Obama does support government programs that regulate business and support social stability [my use], so does every Republican officeholder.

    We then get to the discussion of which government actions we each believe are worthwhile - unless you want to take the radical libertarian viewpoint that government should do nothing but arbitrate private disputes, which you are welcome to take with the understanding that you stand outside the consensus of almost the entire US population.

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    HAHAHA! Here come the GOP trolls... some openly admitting it ("socialism!"), some faking concern ("this should've been over").

    "GOP trolls?" Kari, there are Democrats here who semi-regularly rant about the socialists. Surely you don't need to be reminded of that.

    When the Rs start using "socialism" as their crutch, they are in trouble. Of course they consider Medicare and Social Security as "socialism." Bring it on.......

    Ahhh, "bring it on." Never a good phrase to evoke these days, Bill R.

    As it happens, our own Gordon Smith called John Kerry a French-looking socialist during the 2004 elections. I don't think it had a major effect on the race, but I'll leave it to you to figure out whether Kerry won or not and whether it meant the GOP thought they were "in trouble."

    FiveThirtyEight.com has McCain and Obama in a dead electoral vote heat.

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