Oregonian, KGW, KOIN call it for Jeff Merkley! (Update: Merkley by 44,819 votes.)

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

We win! We win!

The Oregonian has declared a winner in the U.S. Senate election: Your new Senator-elect is Jeff Merkley.

Here's the latest numbers, updated 1:15 p.m. Details below.

48.6%789,793Jeff MerkleyProjection:
49.0% - 825,901
45.9%744,974Gordon SmithProjection:
45.5% - 766,177
5.2%85,139David BrownlowProjection:
5.2% - 87,331

As of 6:02 p.m.: While the margin is only 382 votes, it's now a mathematical impossibility for Gordon Smith to retake the lead. Here's the details of my latest projection (fully debugged and mathematically correct):

In sum, my estimate right now is that Merkley will get roughly 880,000 votes, Smith will get roughly 825,000 votes. That's a win of 49% to 46%. Dave Brownlow will finish with roughly 86,000 votes, or 5%.

I'll continue to update and refine as results come in.

Update, 6:45 p.m.: Sorry, I was a little behind on getting in the 6pm update from Multnomah, plus updates from Clackamas and Lane. Multnomah is up to 63% counted, with a net gain of 2197 for Merkley. Clackamas is up to 69% counted, with a net gain of 1521 for Smith. Lane is up to 74% counted, with a net gain of 1853 for Merkley. Overall, Merkley is now up by 2547 votes. My estimate now has Merkley winning by 53,283 votes.

Update, 7:07 p.m.: Multnomah County is now in, with 71% counted, with a net gain of 1738 for Merkley. Merkley is now up by 4285 votes. My estimate now has Merkley winning by 40,102 votes, or 48.3% to 46.1%.

Update, 7:32 p.m.: Lane County and Jackson County have now updated, though it's basically a wash, with 355 net gain in votes for Smith. Merkley is now up by 3930 votes. My estimate now has Merkley winning by 38,957 votes.

Update, 7:35 p.m.: Jeff Mapes at the Oregonian has a very funny tale about Jeff Merkley talking to the press in his driveway, headlined "Suburban man learns he is a new U.S. Senator". Looks like we won't be getting a victory speech tonight.

Update, 8:15 p.m.: Another hourly update from Multnomah, and another 1807 net votes for Jeff Merkley. Merkley now leads by 5737 votes. On MSNBC's Countdown tonight, uberpundit Chris Cilizza was confident about Merkley's chances, while calling the other three too-close seats (Minnesota, Alaska, Georgia) "much more up for grabs."

Update, 8:37 p.m.: While Multnomah continues to report numbers, Lane County is done reporting results until 10 a.m. tomorrow. Also, Washington County won't report another batch until Thursday at 3 p.m. Seriously. And, this is very interesting and important: While the Oregonian is reporting that Linn County is 78% counted, Linn County has this note on their results: "These results reflect all ballots received at this time." (I've been wondering if all the 92-96% counted numbers at the O are actually 100%. If that's the case, then something like 6700 of the Smith votes in my estimate don't actually exist.)

Update, 9:04 p.m.: Multnomah has another hourly update, and another 1983 net votes for Jeff Merkley. Marion County has now finished its count, with a final 1644 net votes for Smith. Merkley now leads by 6076 votes. Also, just noticed that Jackson County says that it's done. Looking at Josephine, it's clear they're done (total ballots equals total results, counting over/under votes.) Going to start plugging through all the small counties, trying to figure out whether they're really done or still counting (as the O seems to be reporting.)

Update, 9:23 p.m.: The Oregonian has now posted their writeup of the projection calling it for Jeff Merkley. Of course, maybe I should bag this whole game and let the Senator-elect handle the math:

"I've been going through the numbers about every hour and a half," he said in an afternoon phone interview. He said he ran his own mathematical models and expects to come out "comfortably ahead" when the dust settles.

Update, 9:27 p.m.: OK, I've verified that the following counties are 100% counted, no matter what the O says: Douglas, Josephine, Linn, Deschutes, and importantly, Lane County is done. Strangely, some key counties don't report over/under votes, making it impossible to know if the count is totally done (Marion, Washington, Clackamas, Multnomah).

Update, 9:58 p.m.: Just caught the Decision 2008 show, and KGW called it for Jeff Merkley as well, piggybacking on the O's projection.

Update, 10:15 p.m.: The latest Multnomah County numbers include another 1978 net votes for Jeff Merkley. Merkley now leads by 7857 votes. My estimate now has Jeff Merkley winning by 45,347 votes.

Update, 11:06 p.m.: During the 11 p.m. news hour, KOIN-6 called the race for Jeff Merkley. Also, the Merkley campaign has announced a victory speech tomorrow morning. Details here.

Update, 11:20 p.m.: If you're wondering why the Oregonian has a bigger lead for Merkley, it's because they're missing the final numbers from Josephine and Jackson counties. I'm confident we've got the most full count in the state.

Update, 11:39 p.m.: Well, as we wait for the next Multnomah update (maybe tomorrow?!) I'll note that there are 101,241 votes left to count in Multnomah. Those votes should extend Merkley's lead by another 38,758 votes. In the entire rest of the state, there are (at most) 21,235 votes left, and those should be a net 900 votes for Gordon Smith.

Update, 1:10 a.m. Thursday: Hey, check that out. Another Multnomah update, and it's a big one. Jeff Merkley picked up a net 7,033 votes. Merkley now leads by 14,890 votes.

Update, 7:22 a.m. Overnight, Multnomah County continued the count and Jeff Merkley picked up a net gain of 22,767 votes. Merkley now leads by 37,657 votes.

Update, 8:48 a.m. There's a fresh update from Clackamas County, with a net gain of 2749 votes for Gordon Smith. Merkley now leads by 34,908 votes.

Update, 1:15 p.m. Just back from Merkley's victory speech this morning (and a celebratory brunch with some of the staff.) We'll keep going, albeit a bit slower, until the counties are done. This morning's updates, through noon, from Multnomah County, show a net gain of 9911 votes for Jeff Merkley. Merkley now leads by 44,819 votes. My estimate now has Merkley winning by 59,725 votes.

  • Bill Bodden (unverified)
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    691,501 Jeff Merkley 591,119 Gordon Smith 79,004 David Brownlow

    While this margin is only 382 votes, it's now a mathematical impossibility

    Kari: You've done a great job with the web site over the election, but it looks like you have a simple arithmetic problem with the numbers above.

  • Brandon (unverified)
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    You are off by 100,000 votes on one of them there at the top.

  • Greg (unverified)
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    Smith's numbers are 100K short - should be 691,xxx

    -Greg

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    Well done, Senator-elect Merkley. Awesome.

  • trishka (unverified)
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    huzzah!!!!!!!!!!

    words cannot express how thrilled i am to have been mistaken about merkley's ability to beat gordon smith.

    pass the crow please, i've got my bib on and my fork ready, as promised.

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    HA! Wishful thinking... I fixed the typo. Don't want to deny Gordon 100,000 of his supporters!

  • Robin in Central OR (unverified)
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    Hallejah! This has been the longest day!

    I am sooo happy I don't have to spend another minute of my time writing letters to Smith telling him how awful his votes are, or begging him to do the right thing!

    Oregon Be Blue!

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    Six o'clock numbers have started coming in - Lane County just put Merkley up by 2,235. Awaiting the other 6:00 numbers.

  • Ted Wheeler (unverified)
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    Congratulations Jeff. Sorry about stretching the party out a bit...You can send me part of the tab.

  • Yo Bruthah (unverified)
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    Way to go!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Whew! Thank you, Barack Obama! Tails were just long enough. Thank you, Gordon Smith! You were just sleazy enough. Thank you, Jeff Merkley! You were just viable enough.

  • Robin in Central OR (unverified)
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    Oh my gosh... NO MORE BIPARTISAN TOWNHALL MEETINGS with Wyden telling us what a great friend Gordon is!!!!!!! (Sorry... will never forgive Wyden for his despicable silence when Bradbury ran against Gordon in 2000!)

    $20 bucks says Gordon will run against Wyden. Such good friends and all.

    AND no more frozen foods!

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    Multnomah's newest numbers put Jeff up by 4,068

  • janek51 (unverified)
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    So did a lot of people just vote for Obama on the ballot and leave the rest blank? I just can't comprehend how this Senate race was this close. Especially with Gordie telling Lars (I think it was) how he would fight an Obama presidency, this after all the talk about reaching across the aisle and not even identifying himself as a Republican in his ads.

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    Can I go get something done now? This whole day has been exhausting, and I only have a senate race to show for it. Oh wait - A SENATE RACE! Wow! Congratulations, Senator Merkley!!!

  • bluelovescompany (unverified)
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    THANK YOU FORWARD OREGON! THANK YOU PHONE BANKERS!!!

    To each person who wondered if their night on the phones made a difference..... Absolutely!

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    Kaboom!

    Congratulations to everyone who helped Senator-elect Jeff Merkley throughout the race, and to Sarah Lane, Carla Axtman in particular for the netroots work you both did throughout the primary and general. Hat tip to Kari for his services to the campaign as well, and of course to all in the netroots who helped in the begining and to all those who fought the good fight for Novick and then helped the team after the primaries.

    This is a major achievement, to unseat such a well-healed incumbent and smooth political operator like Smith. Savor this, celebrate, then get to hard work helping to keep our entire Democratic caucuses both in Salem and in D.C. honest and working for all Oregonians and for our country.

  • JP (unverified)
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    Never before have I watched an election so intently -- I've been following this blog all day.

    There's a lot I'd like to say, but I'll limit myself to a hearty THANK YOU to Karl & Jenni & Mr Wheeler at MC and you others who made helpful comments. And particularly to "local mom" -- you made me laugh; thanks!

  • backbeat (unverified)
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    just watched the political guy on koin, what an idiot. How can he stand there and ignore reality? On what planet will Smith pick up the rest of the votes in Lane and Mult? HAHAHAHAHA These guys are really in the bag, aren't they?

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    Not a problem. I've been pretty focused on this race ever since I got home from work earlier today.

    Marion County's next set of numbers should be out any minute now and Lane, Multnomah, Clackamas, etc. usually put out results on the hour.

  • Moderate Republican (unverified)
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    So we lose a senator with a good record of working with Ron Wyden to bring good things to Oregon and who had seniority on the ways and means committee with a back bench nobody who will have no influence over anything in the immediate future.

    Great... let's celebrate.

    Let's have a hot dog.

  • RichW (unverified)
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    "AND no more frozen foods!"

    Let there be peas!

  • Chris #12 (unverified)
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    I wonder how much credit should go to Brownlow? I'm sure most of his voters were extreme righties/libertarians/Ron Paulaholics etc. that would not have never voted for Smith, but if the finals are close...

    Now, can some of you expert number crunchers look at Measure 64? Will the outstanding MultCo votes be enough?

  • Dave Lister (unverified)
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    There's an old saying...

    Be careful what you wish for.

    My biggest customer called me today and he wants to cut back 25% on his expenditures with my firm. As a result, I will have to lay one employee off (out of four total).

    This employee will now be filing for unemployment, which is a cost to the state.

    I know you are all enjoying your Blue Tsunami, but you need to think about this:

    Government does not create wealth. Government relies on the private sector to create wealth to fuel government.

    The biggest employer in Oregon (collectively) is the government.

    The market meltdown has PERS (which was declared to have been "fixed") billions of dollars upside down.

    Oregon, and Portland in particular, is a small business economy. That's guys like me providing living wage jobs for a few other people. If the tax burden disencentivizes (I think that's a word) guys like me from providing jobs then I will simply stop doing business.

    And if enough of us do that, what is going to fuel government?

    I totally understand the outcome of last night's election. It was predictable and not surprising.

    What I am suggesting to you is that it is time for job creators (me) and job reliers (government) to work together to figure out how to fix this mess.

    It is time to dump partisan disagreements. It is time to look for solutions. It is time to recognize that we are all in this together.

  • Jake Oken-Berg (unverified)
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    This is a great day for Oregon. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley will make a top notch team on behalf of Oregon in the U.S. Senate. Jeff is smart, progressive and knows how to work with others (see the Oregon State Legislature, 2007 session).

    Congrats to Jeff and his family. And thank you to all the people who worked and volunteered to make this a reality.

    I'd also like to start the "buy 10 more scanning machines" for Multnomah County campaign. If the County can't find the $100k or so to make it happen, I'll contribute $50 to the new fund (2000 x $50 = $100k).

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    Gordon Smith did very little for Oregon, and his "influence" on Ways and Means did nothing for us. He couldn't even work to bring county payments back to parts of Oregon that desperately needed them.

    He was a Senator who couldn't even be bothered to meet with constituents, hold public events, etc. unless there was a big check involved. Heck, Senator Wyden took a few moments out of his busy schedule to talk to my six year-old, and he's not even up for re-election.

    We'll now have a second senator who will vote for Oregon (Smith regularly canceled out Wyden's vote - that's hardly working with Wyden for Oregon), will be open and available to constituents, and will fight for everyday Oregonians.

    Obviously the majority of the voters felt that Smith didn't represent them, otherwise they would have re-elected him.

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    It's time to celebrate. I've been holding off but now it's time to celebrate. Gordon Smith packs his bags and return to Pendleton. And now we get to raise our glasses high - to everyone who spent a minute or an hour - blogging, calling people, canvassing, donating money, putting up a lawn sign, putting on a bumper sticker, wearing a button, registering someone to vote - that was all powerful ful work and we get to celebrate that our candidate has won. Take a moment and enjoy this.

  • Dave Lister (unverified)
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    Jenni, how many jobs have you created?

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    A quick look around the web shows that a ES&S Model 650 Central Ballot Counter is about $72,000, and does 300 ballots a minute.

  • Matthew (unverified)
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    Jake, I second that motion. The Multnomah counting crawl has got to change.

  • CM (unverified)
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    Despite what some sour grapes republicans are whining about this really is great news for Oregon. Gordon Smith was a Republican first and an Oregonian second and his voting record bears that out. Wyden and Merkley will be much better for Oregonians.

  • Dave Lister (unverified)
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    Jenni, My question stands. How many people have you written a paycheck to?

    What good are ballot counting machines if nobody has a job?

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    Back when I used to help my parents with their businesses (my mom owned a ceramic shop, my dad a cement contractor business), I would have been responsible for the creation of around half a dozen jobs.

    Back when I wrote for newspapers and had their subscriptions way up, probably another dozen people in advertising, plus an extra reporter.

    Since then, I've mostly been a stay-at-home mom, so I wasn't in the business of creating jobs. But now I'm in the process of starting up my own business and based on the amount of interest I've had from small businesses and non-profits, I can see me having at least a handful of employees over the next 1-2 years.

    Who knows how many I've created indirectly by buying locally, supporting local small businesses, etc.

    But there's more to being a productive member of society than just creating jobs.

  • I See Blue People (unverified)
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    Dave sez:

    "...What I am suggesting to you is that it is time for job creators (me)..."

    Yes, Mr. Lister, you remind us every...chance...you get.

    Just a note for the rest of the free-thinkers out there:

    This small business owner is adding an employee to my operation this week. Imagine that.

    2008: I see blue people.

    • Another small business owner.
  • Dave Lister (unverified)
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    Yes, but you, personally, never signed a paycheck in your life.

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    All I was doing was giving the price of a high volume ballot counting machine. I never said we had to buy one, I was simply answering a question.

    Maybe before jumping down people's throats you should take a deep breath and take a better look at the conversation.

  • Dave Lister (unverified)
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    See Blue People:

    I admire the courage of your convictions. I guess that's why you post anonymously.

    Now that you folks have won it all, why do you still post anonymously?

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    KGW is just now projecting Jeff Merkley to be elected to the Senate.

  • Bill Bodden (unverified)
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    I wonder how much credit should go to Brownlow? I'm sure most of his voters were extreme righties/libertarians/Ron Paulaholics etc. that would not have never voted for Smith, but if the finals are close...

    Somehow or other it is difficult to imagine any "extreme righties" claiming Bush should be charged with war crimes.

    Government does not create wealth. Government relies on the private sector to create wealth to fuel government.

    Dave: You probably missed the news tucked away in the sports section of the Wall Street journal about this economic crisis being caused by unfettered capitalists on Wall Street. The "government's" complicity came in the form of forgetting the lessons of the Depression and undoing regulations that were once proved essential.

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    Have I ever signed a paycheck in my life? Yes, I have.

    And just because it isn't your name on the paycheck, doesn't mean you didn't create the job. It just means you don't sign the check.

  • Bill Bodden (unverified)
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    What words of wisdom about Obama's and Merkley's wins are emanating from David Reinhard's keyboard at the Oregonian?

  • Dave Lister (unverified)
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    Bill, You probably missed my post a few days ago. The Democrats, proportionally and overwhelmingly, approved the Wall Street bailout. It was your people that decided to rescue the golden parachute crowd, not mine. Republicans, proportionally, opposed the bailout.

    It was my party that went against the administration on the bailout. Your party went along with it.

  • CM (unverified)
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    House Republicans were only against the bailout until all the pork was added for the second vote. Not sure that's something you should be boasting about, Dave.

  • Dave Lister (unverified)
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    Sorry CM. I posted on this site the actual tallies of the second vote. You can find it on the archives. It was the dems, overwhelmingly, that approved the bailout, after the pork was added.

    You can say black is white all you want, but that doesn't make it so.

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    A lot of the Republicans I saw talking about why they were against it were voting no because they wanted to do more to bail out big companies, tax breaks, etc. They didn't vote no because they were against the idea, but because they wanted to do more.

    But anyway, that's off topic for this item.

  • Lou (unverified)
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    To Gordon: Think how nice it will be to not have the media hovering over you all the time. You can now afford to employ as many illegal immigrants as you wish. Anyway, there is a real future in frozen peas. Maybe you could team up with one of those urologists who schedule special surgeries during the NCAA tourney and provide the vasectomy ice packs.

    To Jeff: You just "wanted to win" and you did it--congratulations. Nothing like keeping your eyes on the prize. When Chuck Schumer's loan sharks come a calling, please contact Steve Novick to see how you should respond.

  • Dave Lister (unverified)
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    If any of you are actually interested in the truth on the bailout vote here is the thread on this site with the actual votes of the House and Senate.

    http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/10/gordo-just-does.html

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    Dave Lister - WTF? Go back and look at the stats: job creation has almost without exception been higher under Democratic than Republican administrations.

  • eric (unverified)
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    I did not vote in this race because I find both Smith and Merkely to be arrogant and detestable human beings.

  • Jonathan Radmacher (unverified)
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    Dave:

    Is your initial comment dependent upon the implicit idea that your customer called up about cutting back because of this election? If so, that's just a odd customer (well, unless s/he is someone selling stuff to Gordon Smith).

    I doubt anyone disagrees with your premise that small businesses are a crucial part of Oregon's economy. In my view, this election will not hurt that, at all.

    If your point is all about tax policy, I don't think a small business owner ever says "well, I better make less money so I can pay fewer taxes." There are certainly incentive issues (e.g. how fast can I depreciate these computers, or this furniture, etc), but that gets into pretty minute tax details (IMHO).

  • Jonathan Radmacher (unverified)
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    I just got polled, all over the board, Obama, McCain, etc. A significant amount on Measure 64 and unions. Who's doing this kind of polling??? Sizemore, starting the next cycle?

  • mp97303 (unverified)
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    So did a lot of people just vote for Obama on the ballot and leave the rest blank? I just can't comprehend how this Senate race was this close.

    Simple, Merkley run a crappy campaign and there were seemingly a lot more Obama/Smith voters than you expected. Actually, more voted in the Senate race than for POTUS (according to NBC vote tally). Merkley failed to carry at least 50,000 Obama voters.

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    According to SOS numbers right now, 49,758 voted in the presidential race and not the U.S. Senate race. That number will go up as the counties finalize their numbers.

    But we can't really get into all the details necessary on this to see how many undervoted and such until the abstracts come out in a few weeks. Then we can really take a look at the numbers.

    Not only that, it's surprising how many Republicans voted for Obama, but still wanted Smith as their U.S. Senator. Plus some Democrats are Smith supporters.

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    Re: Merkley failed to carry at least 50,000 Obama voters. It seems pretty obvious that Obama picked up a pretty hefty amount of Republican votes.
    & Smith was pretty obviously trying for Democratic votes... so exactly who failed? .... & whatever!

    in other news... AWESOME! & congratulations...& 83% voter turnout in Multnomah Co!!! I've been bragging on us all over the planet (via internet tubes, "chat rooms" and such)

    happy dance

  • Bill Bodden (unverified)
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    You probably missed my post a few days ago. The Democrats, proportionally and overwhelmingly, approved the Wall Street bailout. It was your people that decided to rescue the golden parachute crowd, not mine. Republicans, proportionally, opposed the bailout.

    It was my party that went against the administration on the bailout. Your party went along with it.

    Dave: You probably missed many of my comments over the last few months making it clear that I am almost as much opposed to the Democrats as the Republicans. I voted for Ralph Nader whose party certainly didn't go along with the bailout.

    Were any of these people in your party?

  • Tamerlane (unverified)
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    I'm calling it now, and I'm calling it first -- M61 FAILS OUTRIGHT. Check it out -- Yes votes have fallen behind No votes, with the heft of the votes yet to be counted coming in from progressive Multnomah and Lane counties. So, there you go. I stand by my earlier assertions that: 1) M61 could be defeated; 2) Chip Shields was wrong and "progressives" should have voted NO on M57. It's a New Day in Oregon. Now, in the future, let's stand up to mandatory minimums.

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    I disagree. I don't think that M61 would have failed had M57 not been on the ballot. However, that's off topic for this post, so that's all I'll say for now.

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    Brownlow had a lot to do with it, clearly. But that doesn't change the fact that Merkley is going to Washington, where I have no doubt he'll shine. Gordon Smith was a reliable vote for the GOP, but he was an absentee senator--a fact even Republicans would have to admit. Jeff's passion for legislation and his knowledge of issues will translate into real work. I LOVE the idea of his partnering with Ron Wyden as a champion for health care. Do you think Smith was going to do that?

    Let me say that again: partner with Ron Wyden. Nice ring to it, isn't there?

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    David Lister,

    Of course government creates wealth, or that is to say, its workers do. They produce goods and services.

    The fact that most often they are paid for with taxes doesn't mean the wealth isn't being created. By that reasoning, you or your employees aren't really creating wealth, because your customers (someone else) are paying for it.

    When I lived in Cambridge Mass. my electric utility company was municipally owned. It produced electricity and sold it to me. It worked exactly the same way as my relationship with PGE here in Portland. (That by the way is a real socialist relationship, unlike the current dishonest rightwing attempts to define liberalism as socialism).

    It's true that in a market economy in which government is expected to provide certain kinds of goods and services on a basis that isn't rationed by price (schools, fire & police services, most public roads and bridges, courts of law more or less, traffic regulating devices, regulatory services maintaining standards of various sorts etc.) government couldn't get a lot of its income without taxes on private economic activity.

    It's just as true that private businesses could not operate without the goods and services provided by government. Or not in a capitalist way, anyway. You'd end up with something between feudalism and organized crime. The goods and services produced by government are part of the general social wealth -- that's why classical political economic writings often call the polity = civil social unit = civil society which in the proper classical sense includes government a "commonwealth."

    According to you, if the government gets income, by taxes, or by bonds that are to be repaid by taxes, or, apparently, even by bonds to be repaid from sales of some sort(?) and organizes the production of something, pay wages and salaries and hiring contractors etc. in the process, whatever it makes isn't considered wealth. Say it's a school building.

    Now, in the town I grew up in, they built a lot of schools in the 1950s and 1960s due to the baby boom. And then in the 1980s, they had a baby bust. So they sold a bunch of schools to private nursing home & assisted living facility entrepreneurs. McMenamin's Kennedy School facilities are a variant on the same thing.

    As nearly as I can figure out about what your claim seems to be, when the town government owned those buildings to provide educational services (formation of human capital if you like, though I'd prefer to look at it in other ways) they weren't wealth. But when they sold them to private owners who used them to make money, suddenly they must have become wealth.

    I say that's nonsense -- the buildings were wealth when the government invested capital in building them, investment that contributed to other forms of creation of wealth through the letting of contracts & so forth (just as later teacher salaries and custodian wages when spent or saved or invested were wealth and contributed to other creations of wealth), and they remained wealth when they were sold.

    It's just as idiotic to say that when the government hires people it doesn't create jobs. Or that government managers don't write paychecks or face hiring and firing decisions etc.

    And of course there's the mystification of "creating jobs" anyway -- it's only half the equation or cycle, your employees' productivity creates your profits too. They may lack settings for exercising their productivity without you (though I can tell you from living in Africa in places with formal unemployment ranging from 40%-60% that people produce and trade stuff informally and make their own jobs, albeit not with very good income results) but employers couldn't sell whatever they sell without workers either.

    Your comments about needing to negotiate the terms of the different parts of these relationships make more sense, but as in any negotiation there is more than one party to it.

    On one other note, I'm sorry, but President Bush and Hank Paulson are your party, not ours. The bailout is a joint venture, and if the president had been a Democrat, it would have looked rather different. I agree that Democrats bear responsibility for it (though Oregon's mostly voted agin' it) but you can't honestly deny that Republicans do too.

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    As we're getting later, OregonLive is getting further behind in updating their numbers. So I've just been keeping a tab open for the counties still updating numbers tonight and getting the data from them myself.

    Right now, my numbers have Merkley up 5,737, including a Jackson County update that OL is missing.

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    Dave, my sympathies are with you. I've spent more elections crying in my beer than crying with joy, and it always sucks.

    But elections are about priorities. Your priority is clearly a pro-business orientation. You didn't say it outright, but your suggestion is that encouraging business should be government's responsibility. That has been priorities 1-10 in Washington since 1980. But the voters apparently don't agree that it should be the priority in 2009.

    I hope Obama and the Democrats take a page from the Merkley playbook and find some of the common ground they share with Republicans. There's a lot to get done that we all agree needs to get done. You might not prioritize it at the top of the list, but elections are about selecting leaders. Jeff's going to join 99 other leaders and hammer out a vision for the future. I hope you find it worthwhile, if not paramount.

    As for me, I look forward to seeing some of MY priorities moving up the list a bit.

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    Jake - are you serious? $100k for 10 voting machines??? If you can get them for less than $600,000 I'd be amazed. Then you better also have the funds to staff the rest of the operation (at some point you need more signature checkers, etc...)

  • Matthew Sutton (unverified)
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    Congratulations Senator Elect Merkley!

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    Ted: I agree. The numbers I saw put the heavy duty machines at about $70-75,000 each, and I'm sure it varies depending on if you buy one or several. They just look nice since they can do 300 ballots a minute.

    But I also know there are a lot of other important things we need to spend our money on that affect us every day, like crime, health and mental health care, our roads and bridges, economic development, and more.

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    The estimate Kari gave is the upper range of the margin of victory, since Republican voters tended to vote later in this election, and will be overrepresented in the votes yet to be counted. It won't be enough to help Smith win, but the result should be closer than the projected 880k to 825k.

    Just sayin'

  • janek51 (unverified)
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    Tarnation! I thought we were thru with Joe the Plumber. Now we got Dave the Lister! Give it a rest, DTL.

  • Laura Graser (unverified)
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    Regarding the undervote: did about 50,000 people vote for president (either one) and just skip the senate race? That's how I interpret those figures, not that 50,000 voted for Obama but not for Merkley.

    To the people who skipped the senate race...I know how you feel. I almost skipped it too, but Steve Novick asked me to vote for Merkley, so I did. On my own, I probably would have voted for any D with a pulse anyway. I understand that Merkley is has a good heart, is smart, and has fairly progressive political views. The latter makes him better than Smith for me.

    I've never met him, but he seems, at the least, boring.

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    Laura:

    Based on the numbers from the SOS office thus far, it appears about 50,000 less people voted in the U.S. Senate race than did the Presidential race.

    We'll have better numbers when the elections are certified and abstracts come out showing how many votes for each candidate, write-ins, overvotes, and undervotes.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    Congratulations to Jeff Merkley and all his campaign! Well done.

    And don't feed the trolls, people. If you don't give them the attention they seek, they wither and die, or slink away to the slimey rocks they climbed out from under.

  • tl (in sw) (unverified)
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    Dave Lister - WTF? Go back and look at the stats: job creation has almost without exception been higher under Democratic than Republican administrations.

    Here are some stats-based conclusions (all from www.conservative-truths.com, but based on figures from the census bureau):

    Conservative States Have A Higher Rate Of Unemployment Than Liberal States

    There Are Fewer People Employed During Conservative Presidencies

    There Are More People Unemployed During Conservative Presidencies

    -tl

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    My most up-to-date numbers show Merkley up 6,076 now.

  • Jeffrey (unverified)
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    With this update, it looks like Measure 64 will fail too.

  • Rex G. (unverified)
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    Dave Lister...

    When was the last time you graduated from college? When was the last time you got half way to graduating from college? Oh, that's right, you're a drop out!

    Bill Gates was a drop out. So was Larry Ellison. Except they made billions. You basically limped along at a middle class income for 20 years blaming Portland's tax code for your own failure in business. Gee, what a captain of industry you are! That must be why when your fellow conservatives at the Portland Business Alliance don't invite you to debate in your political ambitions, you have all your friends call in and complain, because you are such brilliant capitalist!!

    Anyway, congratulations on that signing a paycheck thing. Must have been a real mind-bender for you.

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    In sum, my estimate right now is that Merkley will get roughly 880,000 votes, Smith will get roughly 825,000 votes. That's a win of 49% to 46%. Dave Brownlow will finish with roughly 86,000 votes, or 5%.

    Hot diggity! That is exceptionally close to my projection for Mapes' WWB contest. I had it 48.75% to 46.00% with Brownlow getting 5.25%

  • backbeat (unverified)
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    Congratulations Kari, Sarah Lane, and all of you other people. Way to go.

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    I've tried adding Measure 64 to my spreadsheet. The problem is that a number of counties don't have their information online - and Oregon Live, KGW, and KATU don't break them out by county.

    I need:

    Douglas, Gilliam, Harney, Lake, Linn, Malheur, Sherman, Wallowa, and Wheeler.

  • gene (unverified)
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    [Violent threat deleted, and reported to the authorities. -editor.]

  • Fenbi (unverified)
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    Now if we could only oust Joseph Goebbels ... err I mean Sean Hannity ...

  • Jason Skelton (unverified)
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    I've tried adding Measure 64 to my spreadsheet. The problem is that a number of >counties don't have their information online - and Oregon Live, KGW, and KATU don't >break them out by county.

    yeah yeah. I am really worried about Measure 64.

  • Rep. Peter Buckley (unverified)
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    Kari--

    I am incredibly proud of our next Senator and know he will do an outstanding job for us. Please delete the entry by Gene at 10:35, though. That comment is hugely out of bounds.

    PB

  • verasoie (unverified)
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    Albert Kaufman,

    Thanks for the reminder to be thankful and to appreciate the enormity of what we (volunteers, campaign workers, etc.) have accomplished--- taking out a very wealthy, politically savvy US Senator. I'm now pouring myself a tall glass of Pear Brandy... cheers!

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    Thanks, Peter. That's done.

  • Tony (unverified)
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    Kari, What is your source on counties, specifically Lane, completing their count? Thanks for your hard work!

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    Tony --

    Lane County reports 148,929 ballots. Here's how the Senate race breaks down:

    83,547 Merkley 54,219 Smith 5,790 Brownlow 340 Write-in 0 Overvotes 5,033 Undervotes

    Those numbers add up to 149,929. They're done.

    At least, pending any ballots that accidentally wound up in other counties. Yeah - your ballot has to be delivered to ANY county elections office by 8 p.m. election day. We usually get a small update on Thursday or Friday as a few dozen ballots delivered to the wrong office get delivered to the right places.

  • Tony (unverified)
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    Kari, I think that is where the confusion lies. The report seems to be a little misleading, although I do not dismiss your assessment, I offer an alternative that seems plausible to me. Please consider.

    VOTES PERCENT PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 83) 83 100.00 REGISTERED VOTERS - TOTAL 210,911 BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL 148,929 VOTER TURNOUT -
    TOTAL 70.61

    While the numbers don't look the same above as they do on Lane County's page (here http://www.lanecounty.org/Elections/results/20081104.htm) I think an alternative says that the county has tallied the 148,929 votes (hence the reason the Senate numbers add to that total), but they do not report how many ballots were returned. The 70.62% is the current return, but it will still go higher with the untallied ballots. In fact, Lane County's main elections page reports that as of 6 p.m. election day, 80% of ballots had been returned. So even if no other ballots came in, they would still have about 12% of the vote to count. We know that more came in those last 2 hours. Assuming that as many as 10% came in after 6 p.m, there could be up to 62,000 some odd ballots left to count. Great for Merkley and 64, and determinant of quite a few local races. This is how I interpreted the numbers.

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    Maybe, Tony. My understanding is that the "ballots cast" number is the total that are in -- even before they've been tallied.

    We'll find out soon enough.

  • Robin in Oregon (unverified)
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    Just for interest's sakes, I was trying to find the vote count for the 2000 election for US Senate between Smith and Bradbury. Now why wouldn't the SOS office have that race listed in its history?

    http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/nov72000/other.info/result.htm

  • Robin in Oregon (unverified)
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    Doh! Ignore that post from me directly above this one. Answer: b/c there was no senate race in 2000! How the years have blurred together.

    So, in 2002, Smith beat Bradbury by 210,389 votes. Now I remember how painful that was. If I recall, that election year nationwide, Americans were trembling in their little Chinese-made shoes (!) about the terrrahrists. No I remember.

    Well, Gordon has gotten his just review from from the people.

  • koko the ASL teacher (unverified)
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    Fenbi compared Sean Hannity to Joseph Goebbels (@10:36-06): doesn't that Godwin this thread?

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    Truth is a defense to Godwin.

    Hannity is not so much like Goebbels as he is a student and follower, a practitioner of G's advocated tactic of the Big Lie.

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    Huge overnight update from Multnomah County now in. Merkley now leads by 37,657 votes.

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    Kari,

    I believe Tony is right. If you look at the comparable figure on the Multnomah County website it has been changing, and MC has been providing a separate figure, "ballots received" (ca. 390,000) since the polls closed. Most other counties don't do that.

    The reporting system appears not to have been updated to account for vote-by-mail, cf. "precincts reporting."

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    The fat lady has sung, Gordo. Time to concede!

  • Eric Parker (unverified)
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    "The fat lady has sung, Gordo"

    The way he was acting last night, especially in his mannerisms, he knew it already. He looked like he just wanted to go home - to Pendleton no less - and just dissapear.

    Bless his pea-picking heart.

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    Well much of the country might have heard by now of his fine set of golf-clubs he can now make use of. So I will shed no tears for the hardships of his retirement, what with the prospects of golfing with $1 million golf clubs and no longer canceling out Oregon's voice in the United States Senate.

    Oh, and Dave Lister, more than a few liberals and progressives around here are business owners who understand fully what the legal obligations of meeting payroll are about. So please stop arrogating for yourself that you have unique understanding of business, or the needs and issues facing business owners large or small.

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    We could embarrass Dave L forever about his ignorant talking points on taxes, but if he's focused on job creation, it should be pointed out that a quick historical check shows that Democratic administrations tend to create more jobs than Republican ones. Or if it's wealth you're interested in Dave, surely you know that the stock market does notably better with a D in the White House than an R.

    Or maybe not. Enjoy that beer, tears and all!

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    Right, counties have been inputting the number of ballots counted into the ballots cast area. As such, with every update those numbers have been increasing.

    I'd like to see SOS Brown set forth some rules and guidelines regarding how results are reported so that these things aren't so confusing for people. They're still using report styles that worked back before voting by mail.

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