NRCC courts Sid Leiken for 4th Congressional District

Carla Axtman

Jeff Mapes:

Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a Republican congressman from California, zipped through Lane County and Salem Friday in his quest to drum up candidates to run against Democratic Reps. Peter DeFazio and Kurt Schrader.

McCarthy told me in a phone call that he's working hard to persuade Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken to run against DeFazio. McCarthy said he's impressed by Leiken's economic development work in Springfield and thinks DeFazio could be vulnerable to the right challenge.

More here and here.

Discuss

  • AdmiralNaismith (unverified)
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    Bring it on. Maybe Springfield will get a decent mayor out of this.

  • Dave (unverified)
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    He'd better hope that DeFazio runs for governor, then. If he runs against DeFazio, he'll get drilled.

  • Justin (unverified)
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    I find it highly unlikely that Leiken runs against DeFazio. Maybe he wants to be a sacrificial lamb, but I bet he only runs if DeFazio takes a gubernatorial run. That being said, I think Leiken poses a decent threat in an open 4th race. It all depends on what Dem takes the primary. Someone with appeal outside of Eugene will likely hold him off, but Leiken could play well against certain Dems from Eugene. The district is fairly rural and blue collar outside of Eugene.

  • Billy Ray (unverified)
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    If Pete doesn't run look for wise ass Paul Holvey to step in.

  • Chuck Butcher (unverified)
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    I'd rather try wrestling a 60mph Mack truck than run against Pete DeFazio, but I'm also not a Republican.

  • Charles (unverified)
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    I wonder how well a T-shirt saying "Vote for Me, I was recruited by California!" will fly?

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    Leiken is too smart take on DeFazio. If DeFazio chooses to run for Governor, this will be a very interesting race since the district has the potential to swing Republican, and both Leiken and Dancer both have good name familiarity.

  • LT (unverified)
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    Billy R.

    I agree with much of your sentiment, but as someone who gets grass seed burning smoke in our yard every summer (although I live inside city limits) I admire Holvey.

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    Three words: Bring It On.

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    Stick a fork in Rick Dancer?

  • Josh Reynolds (unverified)
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    First time DeFazio would face legitimate competition in his career? DeFazio still wins but it would be very entertaining.

  • Jason (unverified)
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    Kari,

    You're probably right, but not for the reasons you're thinking. The Republican Party in Oregon doesn't like Rick because:

    1. He speaks his mind
    2. He's not conservative enough

    Rick has challenged the party on its platform, it's exclusiveness, and how it operates. The party never even asked Rick to run, and doesn't want him to. Sid has never campaigned (because he's never had competition for mayor), isn't known outside of the Springfield area at all, and has no chance against DeFazio. He's a typical politician who will tow the party line - which is probably why the R's want him to run.

    Selecting Leiken as the candidate proves once again how out of touch and sophomoric the republican part has become in Oregon. Who knows if Dancer could beat DeFazio, but he has a much better chance than Leiken ever does.

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    I agree with Jason (thud).

    I think Dancer has decent name ID in the area because of his TV gig. He's been talking about raising the gas tax (a lot). He's fairly charismatic, too.

    I don't think he'd have a shot at taking out DeFazio, but I wouldn't underestimate him if the seat were to open up.

  • Marshall Collins (unverified)
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    If The Faz decides to stay in DC I wouldn't be suprised to see his name all by itself on the ballot with maybe a 3rd party nut or two. The 4th loves Pete and while someone like Leiken or Dancer could make him work a little bit for it they don't stand a chance of taking him out and those are the only two that I think could even mount an iota of a campaign against him. If he decides to run for Gov look for those primary ballots to be ridiculously full of all sorts of people from Leiken and Dancer to State legislators to even a few city government people from the rural areas of the district or politicians from years past that have been out of the game for some time. If Pete goes for Gov the Oregon's 4th will be the blood-bath brawl of 2010. Lucky me, I have front row seats from my lovely home in Springfield.

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    Why do people think the 4th will be competitive in an open seat? The 4th district is more D than the 5th, and Schrader romped in 2008, competing for an open seat where the incumbent was a popular Democrat.

    As of March, the D/R breakdown in registration is 42.6%/33.3% in the 4th. In the 5th, it's 41.3%/35.3%.

    Think Schrader was carried on Obama's coattails and won't have that advantage in 2010? According to Swing State Project, Obama didn't do any better in the 4th district--they both got 54% of the vote.

    I think it'd have to be an awfully bad D and an awfully good R for this to be a particularly edge-sitting contest.

  • Jason (unverified)
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    Carla,

    There's a first time for everything, right? :)

    Despite our differences, I think you're intelligent and I respect your opinion (even on the Metolius issue).

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    Why do people think the 4th will be competitive in an open seat? The 4th district is more D than the 5th, and Schrader romped in 2008, competing for an open seat where the incumbent was a popular Democrat.

    The problem for the 5th is recruitment. The 4th seems less problematic for the GOP in that regard.

  • Scott Jorgensen (unverified)
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    The problem with the 5th is that Kevin Mannix nuked Nike Erickson after it was obvious Mannix was going to lose the primary. That attack made Erickson so radioactive that nobody wanted anything to do with him by the time the general turned out. Carla seems to have forgotten that the 5th had a contested Republican primary while the only candidate opposing DeFazio in the 4th was a Constitution Party candidate.

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    "The problem for the 5th is recruitment. The 4th seems less problematic for the GOP in that regard."

    If recruitment were a factor, Schrader would likely have done noticeably better than Obama, who--presumably--faced a less toxic opponent than did Schrader. Yet they did exactly the same, suggesting that the meaningful data point is the same 54% of District 5 voters who picked the Democrat in the contested open seat, whether it was President or Congress.

  • LT (unverified)
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    In the 5th, the Republicans are clueless. Jackie Winters could have made Darlene Hooley's life interesting, but because they didn't like her vote for a tax surcharge, Zupancic ran a really vituperative campaign against her in the primary. And didn't carry Marion County in the primary or the general.

    Is there really no intelligent Republican living in the 5th District? Or is it that an anti-taxer or someone like Mannix or Erickson could win in the primary but people not registered with the GOP wouldn't even consider voting for such a primary winner?

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    TJ wrote: Why do people think the 4th will be competitive in an open seat? ... I think it'd have to be an awfully bad D and an awfully good R for this to be a particularly edge-sitting contest.

    Trivia question, TJ: Which Republican got 58% of the vote in the 4th CD in 2008?

  • Scott Jorgensen (unverified)
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    Kari-Should I guess Rick Dancer?

  • Grant Schott (unverified)
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    I was not familiar with Mayor Leiken, but, because I've read a lot of OR political history, I knew that a Sid Leiken was a co-chair of Bobby Kennedy's '68 OR campaign. I discovered, as some of the older Blue OR readers might already know, that Leiken, the Granddad of Mayor Sid, was a prominent Roseberg lumberman who served as a Democratic State Rep in the 60's (maybe 50's, too.)

  • Desert Donkey (unverified)
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    Maybe the better solution is that Sid Leiken follow in his ancestors' footsteps and return to the Democratic Party. Then those of us in Defazios district would get an opportunity to have responsible representation instead of Defazios posturing and protest votes. Some of you are lucky to have the likes of Blumenauer as your representative. Symbolism only goes so far, and unfortunately symbolism is about all Defazio traffics in. Defazio should live to regret his vote against the President's stimulus package.

    The district economy is in shambles with record setting unemployment and Peter has done nothing to help; instead hindering the efforts of Obama. He deserves to lose, and we deserve better representation.

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