Filing Day!
It's filing day - which means that political junkies across Oregon are either hanging out in the Capitol watching the last-minute candidates file in, or obsessively reloading the filings page on ORESTAR.
The question of the day: What will be the surprise?
Discuss.
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March 11, 2008
Posted in open discussion. |
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2:41 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
It is looking like we won't see a Republican enter the AG race.
Mar 11, '08
STOP BURYING THREADS, KARI!
2:47 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
BCM is getting unhinged. Our readers know how to scroll down. We post 5-6 times a day. That means one about every two hours. Jake's was up for about 2.5 hours, and I posted this short one because it's the real political news of the day - and something interesting to talk about for all the people who are bored with the meta-chatter.
2:51 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Yes, Kari, stop making news happen. Stop the earth from revolving.
There was an interesting article in the Economist this week that said the half-life of a digg'ed front-page story was 69 minutes (or, well, somesuch).
Compared to that, Kari, you're really really SLOW at burying stories that you just unearthed.
LET THIS BE A LESSON: we all must stop doing any work and continually read BlueOregon to catch up on news before it goes away. Oh, sh**! I have to get back to work.
3:22 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Don't forget - if you want to be a precinct committee person, today is ALSO the day to file. Your filing form must be received in your county election office by 5 p.m. today.
Mar 11, '08
BMC go get a massage, pet a dog, drink green tea, lay in the grass, stare at some clouds and for gawwds sake re-balance. Arrggh!
Mar 11, '08
Could you please stick to the issues, Pam? This kind of extracurricular smashing is unwelcome here.
3:38 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
That's funny, BCM, since you're one who isn't talking about filing day. Save the meta-chatter for the post about meta-chatter.
Let's all get back on topic now, please?
So far, not a single opponent for any of the four seats that the Democrats flipped in 2006. Will the GOP really let us cakewalk in those seats? That's like a million dollar gift.
Mar 11, '08
I raised the issue of your burying threads which you seem more than intent on avoiding. Pam just took a character swipe at me, which was way out of line and lowbrow.
Mar 11, '08
It looks like the Oregon GOP seems to be letting a lot slide. Not only are they not really throwing down on the state House, but they really may not bother to contest the AG race. Even McCain is still "pending" in his qualification.
3:47 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Oy! Please, let's talk filing day here! There's hardly a more legitimate topic for a political blog! If you want to fight about threads "burying" threads, start a thread on it! Some of us are really curious, for instance, whether anyone's heard anything about a GOP AG candidate, about any late entries for 5th CD, and the like. The dust ups about Kari's ethics on what has never been intended as a neutral reportage site, and the sheer nastiness of some of the comments on all sides is not only bad for the party, it's just plain dull.
3:51 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Gordon Smith drew a primary opponent. A retired opthamologist from Dundee named Gordon Leitch.
3:54 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Leitch recently sued the State and several state officials claiming they were not validly elected because they had not, as he contended they must, paid for their filing fee in gold. Two quick takes: one, he's not anythign Gordon Smith needs to waste one minute on; and two, I wonder if he paid in gold?
3:55 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Kari:
Interesting, two Gordons. Similar names can sometimes cause problems in elections.
3:57 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Just made an interesting discovery. While I've always thought that the ORESTAR site was just painfully slow, it turns out that it's only painfully slow in Firefox. Using MSIE 7, it's actually quite speedy.... Grr.
4:00 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Mike Erickson filed today for the 5th CD. I guess he's not dropping out to make way for Mannix.
4:05 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Hmmmm... Peter DeFazio is still unopposed.
Mar 11, '08
The primary in CD 5 is going to be an interesting fight. Erickson has a lot of money and fairly good name recognition from the last cycle. I also suspect that Mannix will have some money problems. Federal contribution limits will prevent him from tapping his big donors like he did in his last few campaigns.
4:06 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
ah, ubercrank Gordon leitch!! That's the guy who paid for his 06 guv run in silver dollars, wasn't it? Google his chat session at SS-J for a creepy laugh.
Mar 11, '08
Leitch got 3100 votes for Governor in the 2006 Republican primary. Yes, that's state wide.
4:14 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
With all this heat in the Senate race, maybe I should throw my hat in as comic relief. I'd run on the Beer ticket. No beer taxes! Beer for all!
Mar 11, '08
2nd CD - Anyone know Sabrina Shrake (Christmas Valley) or Noah Lemas (Bend)?
4:19 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Precinct Committee Person Wanna-Bees: If you fail to file by 5PM tonight, you just need three write-in votes in the Primary (at least that's true in Washington County, but I think that's the rule state-wide.) So if you are reading this after 5PM Tueday the 11th, be sure to write yourself in when the ballot arrives, and get at least two other voters to do the same. In fact, walk around your neighborhood the day after ballots arrive and ask 25 of your neighbors to write you in. You can tell the friendlies by their bumper stickers. Helpful Hint: Visit http://www.oregondemocrats.org/node/1041 and become a "Neighborhood Leader". You'll get a list of your Dem neighbors to canvass for the election, and you can ask them to vote for you!
4:21 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Rumor floating around the capitol... Either Stan Bunn (former Supt. of Public Instruction) or Jim Bunn (former Congressman) may be in the building to file for Rep. Donna Nelson's seat.
4:34 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
So, one thing that's different this year is that folks can file online.
Of course, the deadline to COMPLETE the process online is still 5 p.m. The process to file online isn't a quick one, though. So we may hear from candidates that thought they could jump on at 4:55 and file - and discover that they can't.
Compounding that, I'm hearing rumors that the online filing system is having trouble today - something about people getting all the way through the process and then getting kicked out and having to start over.
4:34 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Glen:
Very true. Except that in '06, we had numerous people who didn't become PCP because their precinct was full. They got more than the 3 required votes, yet still lost. In recent years we've even had more people file than there were positions.
In one precinct in '06 there was even a coin toss for the last available slot, as there was a tie.
Obama's supporters are doing a big push for PCP slots. So if you live in the more populated areas, your chance of being a PCP is much higher if you are on the ballot.
Mar 11, '08
Jim Bunn has filed in District 24
4:42 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
This is funny. In HD 52, the seat held by Patti Smith (R), there were no Republicans until today. Today, there are two. Including Matt Lindland, Ultimate Fighting celebrity and Olympic silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling.
Cage match!
4:48 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
The ORESTAR filings online are behind the real-life filings at the Elections Division. A clerk there told me that they're planning on staying late to get 'em all up online tonight. Good show!
5:01 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
5 pm. All contests final.
5:02 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Kari- Does that mean that ORESTAR will not be current at 5pm?
5:05 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
The story in the building is that the Republicans came in with a bunch of last-minute filings. The elections division is cranking through 'em.
Apparently, a bunch of our Washington County legislators drew opponents - including David Edwards, Tobias Read, and Suzanne Bonamici.
5:06 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Patton, correct. They're telling people that they're 15 minutes behind, but I haven't seen an update since Gordon Leitch, the gold-coin guy, over 90 minutes ago.
5:11 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Thanks for the updates Kari! I'm looking forward to seeing the final filings for all the races.
Mar 11, '08
CNN calls Mississippi for Obama.
Mar 11, '08
Really surprised no Republican filed for AG, shows how weak they are right now.
7:13 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
From what little I know, I'd consider Jim Bunn an upgrade from Donna Nelson. Do we have a Dem. in that race?
Mar 11, '08
Do we know for sure that ORESTAR is now listing everybody? If Republicans really have no AG candidate, that is really a bad sign for the health of the Oregon GOP. The open office is makes this their best chance at a pick up in 12 years, yet somehow there was no bench behind Mannix (I thought Jack Roberts would at least throw his name in).
It also looks like DeFazio will be unopposed.
7:53 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
I'm guessing so. Still digging through all the stuff that appeared since I left for pizza.
Mar 11, '08
I took a quick look at the HD 27/SD 14 R opponents (my home districts) and was quite amused. Their main qualifications are that they are both Republican PCPs. Although either Hass or Read would be tough to beat, these are potentially competitive districts (although becoming less so every year) if they wanted to make a serious effort.
A. Rab., the Oregonian is also reporting that no R filed to run for AG.
Mar 11, '08
A quick note on the 2nd Congressional district candidates: The Bend Bulletin is reporting that Sabrina Shrake is only 20 years old. Now there is nothing (as far as I know) that would legally stop Ms. Shrake from running or being elected, but she would be constitutionally barred from taking her seat until she turned 25, and thus she would have to be reelected twice before being able to actually serve. So, here's to Noah Lemas for stepping up to prevent Walden from being able to get interest on ALL of his $800,000+ war chest for another 2 years.
Mar 11, '08
Thanks for the tip, Kari..
Jim Bunn did file: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/cfDetail.do?page=search&cfRsn=6024
Orestar is good in many ways, but if there is a way to have it list all those running for the same seat (all Dist. 24, for instance) I don't know what it is.
Mar 11, '08
Piece of good news--Kevin Cameron (Dist. 19) is now in a contested race. Salem-Keizer School Board member Hanten Day (great guy, outspoken school board member) filed today.
9:31 p.m.
Mar 11, '08
Jenni makes a good point. I know a person can file to run for an adjacent precinct if there is room. Perhaps when the ballots come out, folks should see if all the positions are full in their own precincts and if so, run in the adjacent precinct. I'll contact the Washington County elections office or otherwise research how to write-in in an adjacent precinct, and will post on www.washcodems.org by end of week. And BCM, why don't you try doing something constructive and become a PCP yourself? You seem to need a hobby....
Mar 11, '08
Orestar is good in many ways, but if there is a way to have it list all those running for the same seat (all Dist. 24, for instance) I don't know what it is.
It is pretty simple really. From the Candidacy Filing Search page start with the election year and use the pull down menus to narrow your choice. Or just put in the year, 2008, and election, 2008 Primary Election and hit submit. When the list comes up click on the header "Office" and the list will re-sort from candidate name to grouping all the offices together. Pretty slick.
Mar 11, '08
Thanks, Dave, I figured it out!
Mar 11, '08
A Good Night For House Democrats
So as of today, House Democrats are contesting 54 out of 60 House races. Reps. Kim Thatcher, George Gilman, Bill Garrard, Greg Smith are running unopposed, while Reps. Dennis Richardson and Cliff Bentz have drawn only primary challenges.
House Republicans are only contesting 41 races out of 60 available seats. Many Democratic Reps. face no challenge whatsoever, including freshman Reps. Jean Cowan, Chris Edwards, Nancy Nathanson, Brian Clem, Tina Kotek, Ben Cannon as well as veteran Democratic Reps. Paul Holvey, Phil Barnhart, Brad Witt, Deborah Boone, Mitch Greenlick, Dave Hunt and Mike Schaufler. Three Democratic-held open seats have attracted no GOP candidates.
Perhaps the most interesting thing about tonight is the lack of a contest in those districts which were hot races last cycle: Chris Edwards, Jean Cowan and Brian Clem all took GOP-held seats for the Democrats, and the GOP has abandoned any attempt to reclaim them.
The House GOP has fielded candidates against each of the Washington County House Democrats (except Rep. Mitch Greenlick), though time will surely test the quality of this batch.
The big surprise of the night? Former state senator and Congressman Jim Bunn has filed to run in the GOP primary for House District 24, which covers most of Yamhill County. He faces two opponents in the primary, and if he succeeds he will face Democrat Al Hansen in the general.
My favorite Democratic Challengers:
HD 37: Michele Eberle (v. Scott Bruun) HD 50: Greg Matthews (v. John Lim) HD 51: Brent Barton (v. Linda Flores) HD 54: Judy Stiegler (v. Chuck Burley) HD 59: Mike Ahern (v. John Huffman)
Mar 11, '08
Thanks, Jack. I was looking forward to Kari's recap but your's will do nicely.
I have to confess disappointment at the Dems not contesting every seat, including ones of odious representatives like Kim Thatcher, but admittedly they are looking pretty good for this fall.
And it's truly astounding that so many first-term Dems are not contested--- what a gift, especially to go along with the uncontested open seats.
Mar 11, '08
I should also note that Rep. Peter Buckley has a Democratic primary challenger in Jeff Davis (not sure if that's his real name). Buckley, who represents Ashland, naturally has no GOP opponent, as last time I checked no Republicans lived in Ashland.
Mar 12, '08
verasoie, quite a few of us recruited Chuck Lee against Kim Thatcher in 2006, but that campaign was not successful (although Lord knows we tried--I still have memories of being out canvassing when it was about 100 degrees outside!).
This year, that one isn't contested, but we have a Democratic candidate in District 19. He is an outspoken school board member named Hanten Day. He will be a great alternative to St. Rep. Kevin Cameron!
12:13 a.m.
Mar 12, '08
jack m, is merkley's old seat on of the unopposed? No offense to other primary challengers, but hello Rep. Jeff smith!
Mar 12, '08
Torrid, yes, you are correct sir.
The three open seat races that will be completely determined by the Democratic primary (for the moment barring GOP write-ins and third-party nominations):
HD 42: Regan Gray, Gordon Hillesland, Teddy Keizer, Jules Kopel-Bailey and David Thornton. HD 45: Cyreena Boston, Jon Coney and Michael Dembrow HD 47: Jefferson Smith
It's possible that mid-county gadfly Rod McCarty could challenge him as an Independent Party member after he loses his race for county commission in the primary.
Mar 12, '08
Jeff Smith has no opponent. I was standing with him after 5pm when he saw that---unless of course the screen in the House chamber was running really slow. But I doubt that.
Mar 12, '08
Er, make that Ron McCarty...
goodnight, folks.
Mar 12, '08
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Mar 12, '08
There's also a contested seat among Dems, w/ no Republican filed, in Senate 23: Sean Cruz and Jackie Dingfelder.
John
9:57 a.m.
Mar 12, '08
Thanks, Jack. Good work! I'll be getting my full recap up this morning sometime.... but I've discovered that late-night blogging is sometimes hampered by a four-month-old!
2:21 p.m.
Mar 12, '08
You can see the full listing here.
I've broken it up by position and have color coded by party.