Rasmussen Poll: Dems beat Repubs

Rasmussen Research has a new poll out.

The poll does not include Republican-turned-Independent Ben Westlund - and doesn't provide primary matchup data.

Both Democrats lead all Republican challengers, but Kulongoski does better than Hill against each Republican campaigning for his job. Kulongoski leads Kevin Mannix 51% to 36%. But Hill also enjoys a comfortable lead over Mannix, 47% to 35%.

Kulongoski leads Republican Ron Saxton 47% to 33%. Hill leads Saxton 44% to 31%. When the Republican opponent is state Senator Jason Atkinson, Kulongoski leads 48% to 36% and Hill leads 42% to 36%.

  • Aaron (unverified)
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    <h1>Without Westland and Sorenson--this poll is not worth of having a discussion.</h1>
  • Agreed (unverified)
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    Good call. Regardless of the fact the Rasmussen is a right leaning polling house, it shows they did not do enough research into the race to include Pete Sorenson(when they did include Atkinson), and also no mention of Ben Westlund. They claim they will do a poll every month from now on till Nov, let's hope they actually learn a little more about our race out here before next month.

  • AgreedAgain (unverified)
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    Agreed again.

    According to Westlund's recent press release, they've taken in $100K so far and (according to the little bubble on their petition forms) reserve the right to pay signature-gatherers with that money. Suffice to say, I think it's safe to say Westlund will be on the ballot in November.

    Less safe is Sorenson, but I'd still like to see how Sorenson stacks up... I think it's a little unfair to deny him that possible momentum.

  • Essdeekay (unverified)
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    Rasmussen's poll looks a lot like the one conducted by Zogby International in October or November, which showed both Sorenson and Kulongoski outpolling all Republican candidates by five points or more. The bottom line is this: Democrats are looking strong in November. Perhaps now all this talk about how Sorenson and Hill running is helping Mannix and co will simmer down. We have some real good alternatives to TK in the primary. It's time folks start standing up for their core values and start getting behind either Sorenson or Hill.

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    Westlund had only been in the race a week when this poll went into the field. Rasmussen sometimes does move a little slowly on candidacy dynamics (the first WA Senate polls compared Cantwell to GOP Chair Chris Vance, rather than the recently-announced Mike McGavick), but I think it's unfair to say there was a lack of research or knowledge here. Whatever else there is to say about Scott, he knows what he's doing, I've discovered.

    I have a hard time believing Sorenson is a factor in this race, so while it would be nice to see him, I don't think it renders the poll irrelevant. Westlund will likely be a viable candidate IMO, but at this stage he would probably take roughly equivalent amounts from each major party--if anything, a little more from the GOP.

    The thrust of this polling iteration is that the Democrats are in good shape. I don't see how including Westlund or Atkinson would alter that picture.

  • Sorenson Supporter (unverified)
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    Pete Sorenson got screwed on this one.

  • jim (unverified)
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    The poll cited reflects the static attitues of Oregonians. The static attitudes of Oregonians do favor Democrats. But in this election cycle more than other recent ones, voter angst and dissatifaction is palpable. A political observer of Oregon politics only needs to look at Portland to see Democrats are vulnerable (being generally viewed as the tax and spend party,) because people are very rsistant to raising taxes.

    There has been no campaign to define the issues or the candidates. Nobody has held up a mirror to Governor Kulongoski, certainly the Oregonian has been restrained in their critique of Kulongoski.

    All this leads to the conclusion that it is far to early to say what the true prospects of Governor Kulonoski are.

  • jim (unverified)
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    The comments above about the poll being a snapshot of Oregonians at political rest, relies on the assumption Oregonians can step back and evaluate canidates with an open mind.

    Some political observers comment that Oregon Democrats are "yellow dog Democrats," that is they would vote for a yellow dog before they would vote for a Republican. This election cycle will test this idea.

    Also a factor: what will independents do when the issues and the candidates are squarely laid out to them.

  • bdavistwo (unverified)
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    The real story behind this poll is that Jim Hill starts out with a sizeable lead against any Republican candidate. It allows Democrats to feel comfortable supporting the candidate that best represents their values, as opposed to feeling obligated to vote for an incumbent who couldn't/didn't stand up to Karen Minnis in the legislature. In addition, Jim Hill, unlike Ted Kulongoski, has shown that he can raise the funds and run a strong campaign, which will further his advantage in a general election.

    The fact that he would become the second African-American adds some flair that would pique the national interest giving Jim yet another asset. For this Jim Hill supporter this poll is nothing but good news and a reason for optimism in November!

  • jim Evans (unverified)
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    Jim Hill is a status quo candidate, even more so than Mr. Kulongoski. Except, of course, for the fact that he is a different candidate. Question: do the Oregon voters want the status quo preserved? Or do they want to go further left, with a Democratic house too?

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    Nothing against Jim Hill at all, but I seem to remember a strong campaign* that involved successful fundraising by Kulongoski in 2002. He got elected to some position or other; I can't recall which one.

    I agree it's a huge boost to Hill's primary candidacy.

    *if by "strong" it's OK to substitute "winning"

  • Jef Green (unverified)
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    Although at times it is difficult, I have as Jim Hill's campaign manager resisted the urge to get my "two cents" in on the individual threads posted on this site. However, I will occasionally make a correction and provide a little history having worked both for Jim and Ted in the '02 election.

    First the correction, the article covering the Rasmussen poll stated that Jim Hill came in third in the primary when in fact he finished second to Kulongoski.

    Secondly, having been one of Ted's fundraisers in the general I know what his capablilities are as a fundraiser and just how much the unions "carried his water" both in the primary and general. Bottom line: he may have won last time but it was in spite of his fundraising and campaigning abilities which was evident in the 20 point lead he ceded to Mannix in '02 general election.

    I rejoined Jim Hill's team because, like Jim, I believe that the governor has not provided the Democratic leadership that is needed to make Oregon the state we know we can be. I for one have seen the stregths of both men and, although I personally like Ted, I think that Jim is by far the stronger candidate.

    Jef Green Jim Hill for Governor www.jimhill2006.com

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    Interesting poll. Hill, Westlund and Sorenson lack name recognition outside of Portland and outside the world of political junkies. Sit down for coffee with the 5:00 AM coffee crowd in Grants Pass and take an informal poll. Westlund who? Sorenson is from Lane County you say? Hill was Treasury Secretary when? Kulongoski has focused on Oregon's economy during his first term, resulting in the 5th fastest growing economy in the US. Kulongoski is long on bread and butter issues that matter to most citizens. In his State of the State speech he nailed it when he said the people on all of the streets in our state are focused on the ability to support themselves and their families. New jobs have rolled into Oregon under Ted. Remember Ted personally took on Arnold and convinced Amy's (organic/environmentally correct) Kitchen to move to Medford. Alot of folks went to work there due to Ted. How about the new distribution center for Lowes hiring hundreds in the Lebonnon/Corvallis/Albany area. There are hundreds of small businesses across the state who are grateful for Ted's leadership in helping their businesses grow. Want to make a differnce in our state? Donate to Rob Brading's campaign to defeat Karen Minnis. With her and her kind removed Ted will be free to pass the progressive legislation he has always supported.

  • JHL (unverified)
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    With [Minnis] and her kind removed Ted will be free to pass the progressive legislation he has always supported.

    Ouch. So Kulo's effectiveness comes only at the behest of Karen Minnis? Well then, according to that logic, why doesn't Minnis have credit for some of the recent economic boon?

    Ted needs to find something more substantive than the fact that he happened to be governor when the Federal Reserve pushed the prime rate down to 1%.

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    Interesting poll. Hill, Westlund and Sorenson lack name recognition outside of Portland and outside the world of political junkies.

    Hill is from Marion County which is a pivotal county in any statewide race. To the best of my knowledge only two candidates have won statewide office without winning Marion County. I won't bore y'all with my Marion County theories again though. And he was State Treasurer, not Treasury Secretary. It's not a cabinet post.

    I've also done my own informal polling and a lot of people don't like Ted. I'm just sayin'. Name recognition or not. If you only take one thing from this poll it's that, in favorability ratings, Jim's is higher than Ted's. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's within the margin, I know. But that's still got to be disappointing for a sitting Governor - maybe name recognition doesn't really work in his favor.

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    I think Rasmussen has simply recognized that Sorenson is not a factor in this race. Ask anyone who is not a political junkie and doesn't live near Eugene who he is. He just has not registered with the public and doesn't have the money or organization to change that now.

    Hill, as a former state officer, has more name recognition and Ted has had weak support. I remain dubious, however, that Hill can ride this to victory given that he disappeared from the public view 4 years ago, came in third in the last race, and has limited money and time to appeal to voters this year. While this poll shows him with a better favorability, other polls show him way behind Ted in a match-up. I remain dubious. Most people just do not know who Hill is today or what he stands for and I don't think he can change that in the next two months.

  • W. Bruce Anderholt II (unverified)
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    It's amazing that Mannix is not polling any better than Atkinson (vs. Kulongoski), given his prior run for the Governor's office and his GOP connections.

    Having listened to Atkinson speak (in person), I believe he has a great deal more upside potential (ability to close the gap in a general election campaign), and much lower negatives than Mannix.

    That said, it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which Mannix (or Kulo) doesn't get the nomination. There's always the chance for an April surprise!

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    I'm sorry, but I agree-- any polling done between Dems/Repubs should have included Sorenson as well. Most seem to think that it'll be Mannix or Saxton, yet Atkinson is in there. So why not Sorenson?

    Sorenson has more name recognition than some may think. I've been pleasantly surprised when mentioning his name to people that they do indeed know who he is. Remember-- in the primary it's mostly going to be the party faithful who get out and vote. And they're a lot more likely to know who Sorenson is than just someone you chat with at a coffee shop.

    It's the time between the primary and the general when candidates spend their time getting everyone to know who they are, what they stand for, etc. Right now it's all about the party faithful who vote in the primary.

    I'd imagine that they left Westlund out because it was a comparison between R's and D's. However, I'd really like to see them list all 3 main R and D candidates and include Westlund in there.

  • james mattiace (unverified)
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    heck, they give Kinky Friedman 9 points in Texas. Perhaps now that Ben has declared his intent he'll make the next poll.

    I agree with the above posts, Pete Sorenson and Ben Westlund should have been included. But way to go Jim!

    texas here

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    Rasmussen has no business deciding that Sorenson is not a factor. that's not the job of a pollster; Sorenson has been running hard for a long time, and a realistic assessment of that campaign is owed to the political process, if nothing else. Atkinson gets numbers but not Pete? that is very lame and unprofessional.

    my own take on this: Oregonians are recognizing that at the state level, the GOP has almost nothing to offer. the flat-earthers have no need of the Rs; if they get pissed at something, they're going to take it to the ballot anyway. so that leaves deciding which party will take care of business better, and Minnis et al have demonstrated not merely an obstructionist approach but an anti-democratic one. the Dems, otoh, are a diverse group, representing the different versions of Democratic politics across the state. officials like Bradbury, Castillo, Myers and Edwards have demonstrated they are not only competent but fair. Democratic voters are glad to stay home, and more of the indies are voting D.

    not to mention, whatever faults or short-comings they possess, both Ted & Jim (and Pete, and can i just say, Bev Stein, i miss you!) are clearly preferable to more voters than retread Mannix and the 2 invisible wannabees. it won't be a cakewalk, but a strong campaign should have no trouble winning with any of the 3 Dems.

  • frank carper (unverified)
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    i think some of that jim hill vote has to be people just saying yeah, any democrat is cool with me

    i'd like to see a pollster help us understand this better sometime by including the name of a bogus and bland name - would you vote for democrat michael wilson over republican kevin mannix

    i bet the numbers would be about the same for jim hill

  • Sid Leader (unverified)
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    Governor "Kids First" Ted will lose because of the three little letters he forgot to mention in his semi-delusional State of the State speech: PPS, aka Portland, aka the straw that stirs the drink called Oregon.

    As I have said before, Oregon without Portland is Wyoming, without the resources or the charm.

  • brian lewis (unverified)
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    In my humble world polling that fails to include all the variables is a flawed poll. I would state stronger that such a poll is unethical and non-scientific. The process of democracy depends on the players to honor the democratic process. I feel the poll fails all Oregonian's the right to be informed. As an aside, I see TK as an "R" in "D" clothing. This explains why he was not "fighting" the Minnis camp.

  • JHL (unverified)
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    James -- Thanks for the link to Texas! Check out Strayhorn, though... if Kinky throws his 9% her way, Strayhorn and Perry are suddenly in a dead heat. Some exciting calculations there, though I have to admit don't know much about Strayhorn's politics.

  • LT (unverified)
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    "though I have to admit don't know much about Strayhorn's politics."

    I don't either.

    But did I read she has a son named Scott McLellan?

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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carole_Keeton_Strayhorn

    "She is the mother of White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan (who was Strayhorn's campaign manager three times), and Mark McClellan, who is currently director of Medicare for the Bush Administration and who previously served as Food and Drug Administration Commissioner. Her son Brad McClellan is a former Assistant Attorney General for Texas, where he headed the state's workers' compensation section and is now the manager for his mother's gubernatorial campaign."

    I lived in Texas when she ran for several of her offices. She's not that much better than Bush. Back when he was governor, she was one of his side-kicks.

    However, the current governor is a complete idiot. He makes Bush look like a genius.

    She's running as an independent because she knows the Republican Party wouldn't give her the time of day-- she's running against Bush's boy, Rick Perry.

    I hear this is also why Kay Bailey decided not to run for governor yet-- she was warned against it.

    I'd rather not see her as governor either, although it would be better than having an utter and complete moron running the state.

  • brian hayes (unverified)
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    <h2>The best thing about polls is that from recent expereience (natioinal elections) polls are just taking snapshots, predicting the future fails to account for real life variables. As a Pete Sorenson supporter I am confident that his campaign has made contacts with Oregonians that the poll has not. Check out his web site at WWW.petesorenson.com or better yet email [email protected] signed pete fan</h2>
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