Carol Voisin on the air in Medford and Bend

Here at BlueOregon HQ, we got a heads-up from a volunteer for the Carol Voisin for Congress campaign. It seems that they've picked up a last-minute infusion of cash from the DPO - in order to air a TV spot, based on the netroots spot produced by Blue America PAC and the Had Enough crew.

Over at Down With Tyranny, they've posted a note about the ad from Voisin campaign manager Tom Mathieson. An excerpt:

This is one of those campaigns that has such structural disadvantages (Dems lose by 45%+), that it typically never gets off the ground, with a downward spiral of no belief and no money. This year has been different because Carol is a great candidate and she came together with some highly motivated volunteers, several of us from the netroots. Our weakness was also a strength, as the lack of professionals and insiders has allowed us all to keep the campaign in line with our ideals-- we've made things up as we went along while running an honest and positive campaign that has shined a big spotlight on Greg Walden's record. ...

Since we didn't have much money the ads, played sparsely, were sort of symbolic, but most everything about this campaign has been sort of symbolic, and it felt good.

And then a couple of days ago the Democratic Party of Oregon sprung $10,000 for us to run the ad the last week of the campaign. This is enough so that it will really get seen, and really will bring in some votes. The fact that the DPO wanted to spend money on these ads when the Oregon House is in play signifies that they know that it is helping both Carol and all the down ballot races. People see it and they immediately understand and remember the song and the images, and it pushes them across the action-inaction line. I know I'll never get it out of my head.

If you're in the 2nd CD - go help Carol get out the vote.

  • Mike (unverified)

    I'd just like to thank the Voison folks for their efforts. Walden is as rubberstampish as the rest of the Congressional Republicans and deserves to go.

    If we don't get him this time, we'll try again in '08 when we're also going after The World's Most Uselss "Independent Republican" Senator, Gordon Smith (R-Rubberstamp/doormat).

  • verasoie (unverified)

    Uh, isn't she about two weeks behind the game here? I mean, 50% of voters will have already voted by now (I don't know how long her ad has been up). This seems like a waste of money to me, given that half of the electorate will have already cast their ballot, and unless the DPO has some crazy internal poll numbers on her against Walden, or perhaps wants to boost her numbers to increase the interest in the race next time, it seems like any money there could have been better spent on local races, helping us win back the House.

  • (Show?)

    10K is nothing, and a good 40% come in the last two days. This weekend is actually a good time to catch a big chunk of the electorate still thinking.

  • Gordie (unverified)

    I actually finally saw a commercial of hers on TV today (Medford media market). She hasn't proven to be a viable candidate...but with the President's unpopularity, I'll be curious to see how much better she does than her predecessor against Walden.

  • Chuck Butcher (unverified)

    It's pretty easy to talk about not being "a viable candidate," and I'm a little tired of hearing it. $20-100 contributions from everybody that gave a damn could've made a lot of difference. I was her opponent in the Primary and I've now spent almost as much out of pocket on her campaign as mine and I've worked to help her. (I stayed in that race for a reason, BTW)

    Here's the problem, the next candidate will face the same odds or worse (no GWB) and have no money against a lot of money because so few will help out. And you'll blame it on big money and say, "not a viable candidate..."

    Carol's made a good fight against long odds and however it turns out I'm proud she's my friend.

    Thanks, Chuck

  • Mike (unverified)

    Good point, Chuck.

    And how many darkhorse Democratic candidates this year found themselves in a real race after their Republican opponent got tarred with a scandal. We could fill the page with such Republican candidates who were front-runners but are now reduced to using robo-calls to try to suppress the Democratic vote and thereby rescue their seats. Presumably so they can go back and continue their corruption...

  • Brian Smith (unverified)

    Gordie and Verasoie- Thanks for reminding everyone why you're on the sidelines and not in the game. It probably has something to do with a lack of creativity and sophistication. So here are some facts that may prove to be insightful. The last two Democrats have not done better than 27% against Walden. However, there is currently about a 3% registration advantage for the Democrats in the 2nd CD. It's usually the other way around. And as of Sunday, less than 28% of independents have voted. And since you are so interested in the outcome of this race, you've probably been doing some phone banking and you've noticed the support Carol is receiving from these independents. This is particularly noticable in Deschutes County, where there are a large amount of new registrants that are voting because of national issues such as Iraq rather than the trade-offs between water rights and sucker fish in the Klamath Basin. The bottom line is that Carol will at the least make a 15 point jump over previous challengers while being outspent 17 to 1. All of a sudden Walden will not seem invincible and people will be willing to put money into the race in 2008, and this is where the difference will be. I suspect the DPO recognizes the same thing, and perhaps the fact that bringing out Voisin supporters helps down ticket Democrats in the district. Either way, I encourage everyone to pay attention to this race on Tuesday. You might be surprised. By the way, thanks for the support, Chuck. Brian Smith

  • Elizabeth (unverified)

    verasoie, I understand your concerns about funds being used in the most effective manner. We all need to think about that.

    However, I don't think it's the Voisin campaign that's two weeks behind the game here. It's the DPO that's five months behind the game in making an investment in her campaign.

    And that's because we're all learning together that every race in every state counts.

    Candidates as outstanding and hardworking as Carol come along once in a blue moon. An early investment in her campaign would have been a wise investment.

    People like Mike and Chuck who made early investments in the campaign have forced Greg Walden to spend amounts of money so large that I have trouble comprehending them. This means that Walden has not been able to make his usual contributions from his war chest to Republicans such as Richard Pombo, one of his usual beneficiaries. That helps the Democratic candidate in each of the races in which Walden can't afford to drop money...Carol Voisin's campaign is making a difference in races across the nation.

    Carol's recent ad blitz of the wonderful "Have You Had Enough?" 30-second and 60-second spots most certainly helps candidates for state races in Oregon. The ads remind Oregonians all over the state that we've had enough.

    And this last weekend was the appropriate one to blitz, to pick up the Undecideds and Independents for both the national and state races. Calling Independents in Deschutes County this weekend proved that to me.

    These are some of the short-term returns on investments in Carol's campaign. Chuck and Brian did an excellent job of explaining the long-term returns on investments in Carol Voisin's campaign.

    We should take a cue from how Greg Walden is campaigning this time. He knows he's in the fight of his life.

    I hope this makes you feel better about the DPO's investment in Carol Voisin's campaign. I really believe it's money very well-spent. I'm off to canvass, because it's not over until it's over.

    Best, Elizabeth

  • (Show?)

    Brian-- 3% edge for Democrats in the 2nd? Say what? Based on the September registration counts available from the SoS, Republicans have 50,000 more registrants than the Dems in OR-2.

  • (Show?)

    That helps the Democratic candidate in each of the races in which Walden can't afford to drop money...Carol Voisin's campaign is making a difference in races across the nation.

    Carol's recent ad blitz of the wonderful "Have You Had Enough?" 30-second and 60-second spots most certainly helps candidates for state races in Oregon. The ads remind Oregonians all over the state that we've had enough.

    Two excellent points. It's easy to get myopic in the last week before an election. You don't want to abandon strategic thinking in the tactical rush.

  • Bert Lowry (unverified)

    I agree. Also, we can't expect to flip a Republican district in one election. Everyone has written off CD2 for as long as I can remember. As a result, CD2 dems receive very few resources. The lack of resources makes them less effective. So their prospects are worse. So they receive even fewer resources.

    It's a vicious cycle.

    It's time for Oregon Democrats to start investing in Central and Eastern Oregon. The immediate payoff may be small (slightly easier statewide and national races). But the long term upside is very exciting.

    Carol Voisin's campaign is a good place to start.

  • Brian Smith (unverified)

    Torridjoe- When I say 3% turnout edge, that is a rate of existing Dems that are voting. This is why it is always critical to win the independent vote, because Dems would have to have something like a 25% turnout advantage or more to beat the Reps, all other things being equal.

  • (Show?)

    you didn't say turnout edge, you said registration edge. Thus the confusion. I see what you're saying now.

  • Scott McLean (unverified)

    This is a tough race for any Democrat. It's a conservative congressional district in the sense that voters for the most part believe in government living within it's means.

    With the "debt and spend" Republicans spending billions on the war in Iraq as though it were unimportant pocket change, with a complete disregard for the national debt, the future and taxpayers now and in the years to come, these Republicans haven't kept their promises to their own supporters.

    I think a Democrat with a history of being fiscally responsible could win this race, if not this time then in the near future.

    The degree of difficulty for a Democrat in Eastern Oregon is comparable to that of a Republican in East Portland.

    The difference is politicians in East Portland listen to their constituents. Like many (not all) Republicans in Congress, I see Walden, Gordon Smith and others voting for these massive war appropriations because that is what the Bush administration wants them to do. They are no longer thinking about their constituents first and foremost.

    I don't see that Walden or Smith are getting out there talking to Oregonians the way Senator Ron Wyden always has done throughout his political career. Wyden is a great senator!

    Maybe if more politicians were listening to the people, they wouldn't be wasting hundreds of billions of dollars on a war that appears to be going nowhere fast.


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