OR-5: A Schrader Will Run, But Which One?
On his blog at the Oregonian, Jeff Mapes profiles Kurt and Martha Schrader, one of whom will be a candidate for US Representative in CD5:
Like many married couples, Kurt and Martha Schrader of Canby have to sit down and have a serious talk about their careers. Only in their case, they have to figure out which one is going to run for Congress.Of course, I'm old enough to think, what a great premise for a Spencer Tracey-Katharine Hepburn movie. Only the Schraders, after 32 years of marriage, seem way too calm and relaxed about figuring out which of them is going to run.
"We sat down laughing the other night and said how many families would ever have this kind of conversation," said Martha. "'Well, dear, are you going to run for Congress, or am I going to run for Congress?'"
The two Democrats both have successful political careers. Martha is a Clackamas County commissioner and Kurt is a state senator who co-chairs the Legislature's powerful Joint Ways and Means Committee.
The Schraders plan to decide who will run by next week:
The two said they won't run against each other ("That would be a little too kinky, actually," said Kurt). But whichever one runs in the Democratic primary, they will likely face Paul Evans, a veterans and emergency preparedness policy advisor to Gov. Ted Kulongoski. Evans also happens to be married to Hooley's chief of staff , Joan Mooney Evans, which is another little plot twist Hollywood would appreciate (note to agents: I'm available to do the treatment now that the writer's strike is over)."Being the astute, analytical people we are, Martha and I just have to sit down and figure out which one of us is better positioned to run," said Kurt. The two said they'll try to figure out who has the better profile in the district and how it would affect each other's career.
For example, Martha would have to give up her commission seat while Kurt is only halfway through his Senate term. But Kurt acknowledged that a woman may better match the district profile. Hooley certainly proved that, winning six terms despite the fact the district leans Republican in registration.
They say they expect to come up with a decision by sometime next week. "Our attitude is that we're just going to have a big glass of champagne when the whole thing is over and salute the other," said Martha.
Read the rest. Discuss.
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Feb. 13, 2008
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9:37 p.m.
Feb 13, '08
This is going to be interesting. (pulling up a lawnchair)
Feb 13, '08
Neither please!
9:55 p.m.
Feb 13, '08
Why's that Peter? Don't know a whole lot about them (though I like what little I know about Kurt.)
Feb 13, '08
Kurt vs Paul Evans would be very interesting but a tough choice for those who know them both (I'd probably pick Paul). There was something on the Jeff Mapes blog that Martha would "fit the profile of the district". Dumbest thing I have ever heard. Ruth, Barbara and Catherine ran for Congress in this district and lost---at least partly in each case due to candidate mistakes.
And then of course Dan Gardner might run.
What we need are serious candidates who can talk about federal issues, do town hall meetings across the district, show up in the small towns as well as large cities, convince the folks they'd be able successors to Darlene who had issue knowledge and people skills we haven't always seen in campaigns or in Congress.
5:24 a.m.
Feb 14, '08
As someone who is friends with them both, I know either one of them has the ability to move mountains. I have deep respect for their ability to be folks who have common sense, actually do what they say they will do, and then know how to work to get things done.
I would love to see either one of them run for this position.
Feb 14, '08
I can't think of a better fit for the Fifth CD than Paul Evans. (Well, maybe Darlene is a better fit . . . .) Unlike Martha and Kurt, Paul is not from the Portland area; he's been mayor of Monmouth, a volunteer firefighter, Oregon National Guardsman who's done multiple tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, and most of all, he's an all-around nice guy. Paul would really be a leader in the mold of Sen. John Tester and Gov. Brian Schweitzer -- progressive politics, but a perfect match in temperament, personality, style, and experience for the Fifth C.D.
Even if Martha or Kurt were to win the seat, I predict they'd have to fight for their political lives to retain it every two years. By contrast, Paul is the type of person who'd be able to build a real coalition of supporters -- from farmers and blue-collar workers to Lake Oswego businesspeople and lefty activists.
Go Paul!
Feb 14, '08
I don't know about "fight(ing) for their life", but any D who holds that seat (or R for that matter) is likely to face a competitive challenge every cycle until the districts moves more solidly into one of the party's columns.
Feb 14, '08
Please ignore my previous comment. I confused Schrader for Schaufler!
Feb 14, '08
I hope that Paul Evans runs he will unite the vets into a powerful voting block that will keep the seat Democrat.
Feb 14, '08
Yea Misha and Barbara.
No disrespect to Kurt, but Paul in 2006 did an amazing job of impressing people who usually vote Republican.
1:59 p.m.
Feb 14, '08
Paul in 2006 did an amazing job of impressing people who usually vote Republican.
Too true LT. Paul did a great job in '06. I even got my butt to Salem to walk for him on one of the Bus Project trips.
On the other hand, both Kurt and MArtha have long records of actually winning in swing districts.
Kurt's done multiple terms as a state rep and later as state senator, while Martha is a sitting commissioner in Clackamas County.
I believe that either one would be an excellent candidate to fill Darlene's seat and keep it in Democratic hands.
2:05 p.m.
Feb 14, '08
Paul is the type of person who'd be able to build a real coalition of supporters -- from farmers and blue-collar workers to Lake Oswego businesspeople and lefty activists
If he asks for a peek at the combined Schrader rolodex, he'll find that such a coalition is already in place. The Schraders already pull from Left, Right, and Center, I've worked on some of thier campaigns too and that's how they've won consistently through the years.
Feb 14, '08
Excuse me, Pat, but statements like "combined Schrader rolodex," are the sort of thinking that had Hillary Clinton believing she would be the nominee by Feb. 5. But voters who thought for themselves chose to vote for someone else who inspired them, whether the Clintons liked it or not.
There may be some Marion, Polk, coastal etc. activist Democrats who know Kurt, but how many of them know Martha? And would the people who worked their hearts out on the 2006 Paul Evans campaign (or back in the days before Darlene was in Congress worked hard for someone they knew well) would campaign for a person they had not previously met simply because of a rolodex?
That is a philosophical debate among Democrats in general, not just with regard to one open Congressional seat.
3:57 p.m.
Feb 14, '08
LT,
I'm not believing or asserting anything about inevitability.
On this thread, which is about the Schraders, I'm offering additional information that I have--about the Schraders.
That's it.
5:03 p.m.
Feb 14, '08
Unlike Martha and Kurt, Paul is not from the Portland area;
I guess you've never been to Canby.
It's geographically closer to Portland than, say, Monmouth, but politically speaking it's right next door to Monmouth, not Portland.
"combined Schrader rolodex," are the sort of thinking that had Hillary Clinton believing she would be the nominee by Feb. 5. But voters who thought for themselves chose to vote for someone else who inspired them, whether the Clintons liked it or not.
Not that I ever want to be caught defending anything Pat says, but that's a red herring. All Pat said was that if you are looking for "the type of person who'd be able to build a real coalition of supporters -- from farmers and blue-collar workers to Lake Oswego businesspeople and lefty activists" that Kurt and Martha demonstrably fit that bill. They have both managed to get elected by building just such coalitions. There was nothing in there about anyone supporting either of them "just because of a Rolodex"
I personally think Kurt is a somewhat better fit for the 5th. He's the less liberal of the two. He's been in government longer and in state rather than county government so he is more familiar to a wider audience.
Would the people who worked hard for Paul work hard for Kurt? I don't know but I don't see that as different from asking whether the people who have worked hard for Kurt will work hard for Paul.
Feb 14, '08
Doretta said, "[Canby is] geographically closer to Portland than, say, Monmouth, but politically speaking it's right next door to Monmouth, not Portland."
Doretta, you are incorrect. A quick look at the demographic data from the 2000 census shows that:
More than twice as many people in Canby than Monmouth have incomes over $75,000 (26% to 11%).
Almost twice as many people in Canby than Monmouth work in the finance or other professional industry (16.7% to 8.5%).
Three times as many people in Monmouth than Canby live below the poverty line (24.6% to 7.4%).
One-third more people own a home in Canby than Monmouth (67.2% to 46.3%).
And this is demographic information from 1999! Canby has only gotten more gentrified and suburban since then! Canby has much more in common with Oregon City, Gladstone, and Milwaukie than it does with most of Polk, Marion, Tillamook, and Lincoln Counties.
Feb 14, '08
But, Doretta, here's the point (which I neglected to make in my last post): No matter what the statistics say, Canby is in the Portland area and being from the Portland area is a political liability in the Fifth C.D.
Darlene Hooley has been criticized by every person who has run against her for being a "Portland liberal" who lives only a few minutes within the district. The Schraders will have the same liability.
Paul Evans will not.
9:13 p.m.
Feb 14, '08
Canby has much more in common with Oregon City, Gladstone, and Milwaukie than it does with most of Polk, Marion, Tillamook, and Lincoln Counties.
I repeat, I guess you've never been there.
Income demographics don't differentiate between George Soros and Rupert Murdoch.
I said politically not demographically.
I don't have party registrations by city but as of last November major party voter registration in Multnomah County was 71% Democrats, in Clackamas County it was 49% Democrats and in Polk County it was 44% Democrats.
As to the strictly geographical point, it's not what the opponents try to sell that matters, it's what the voters buy. In case the fact has escaped you let me remind you that Darlene won those elections.
Kurt Schrader has run in Oregon House and Senate districts that have similar registration patterns to the 5th CD overall. The one thing you Paul Evans fanatics keep glossing over is that Kurt has won elections in those districts. Paul lost in his only bid and it wasn't all that close.
I'm not dissing Paul, I hope he has a long, successful political career in Oregon. But some of you guys seem to be letting your personal devotion cloud your analysis.
Feb 14, '08
Doretta, are you saying that Paul never held public office, or that being elected to local office doesn't count? Paul was a very well known Mayor of Monmouth--did you know that?
I have been to Canby. Monmouth and Canby are not the same place, any more than Polk County and Clackamas County are exactly alike. There have been people from other parts of the state who say "the Ways and Means chairs are Portland liberals" although the folks in Canby probably wouldn't agree with that.
"I don't have party registrations by city but as of last November major party voter registration in Multnomah County was 71% Democrats, in Clackamas County it was 49% Democrats and in Polk County it was 44% Democrats."
Have you been to a Clackamas County Dems meeting and a Polk Dems meeting? Do Clackamas Dems hold their meetings in the same place every month? Polk Dems alternate between W. Salem and Monmouth, that way it isn't always the Monmouth-Independence folks having the long drive.
Gee, you are using the old "registration is destiny" argument. I guess that doesn't hold as much water now that Peralta and Gilbertson proved how close they could come in "lousy R to D ratio" districts. But some people would rather look at a spread sheet than actually treat voters as individuals.
Paul Evans darned near won his home county (a 20 something vote loss in Polk) and in Marion County Jackie's margin was something over 3,000 votes. That may not look like much on paper, but those who live here know that "Jackie is an icon--why is Paul even running?" naysayers never expected him to be competitive in fundrasing, draw crowds the like of which hadn't been seen in a very long time, and recruit young people into politics. Some of his events were just about standing room only, but that doesn't matter because Kurt won legislative elections? And this is how you build a volunteer base for a Congressional election?
I like Kurt Schrader, but the idea that he could win over voters who think so highly of Paul just because people on a blog say so doesn't make much sense to me.
7:41 a.m.
Feb 15, '08
Doretta, are you saying that Paul never held public office, or that being elected to local office doesn't count? Paul was a very well known Mayor of Monmouth--did you know that?
Yes, I knew that. No, of course I'm not saying that. The fact that you keep interpreting what other people say in such weird ways is a part of why I think you are letting your devotion interfere with your analysis. I did say that I think being better known to more people helps so Kurt having been a State Senator is an advantage over Martha having been a Clackamas County Commissioner. I think Paul's chances are better for the name recognition he built in his Senate run than they would have been had he only been mayor of Monmouth. Is that really so controversial to you?
Monmouth and Canby are not the same place, any more than Polk County and Clackamas County are exactly alike.
See, there you go off the deep end again. I never said anything like "Canby and Monmouth are the same place." I said Canby is politically more like Monmouth than like Portland.
Gee, you are using the old "registration is destiny" argument.
See above. Another argument I never made.
Some of his events were just about standing room only, but that doesn't matter because Kurt won legislative elections? And this is how you build a volunteer base for a Congressional election?
Where exactly did I say Paul's ability to draw people to his events didn't matter? I've said Paul would be an interesting candidate in the 5th. You're going off the deep end just because I don't think he's the only interesting candidate. That's goofy. I'm not making too much out of Paul's loss and Kurt's wins, that is just one set of data points among many.
What is how you build a volunteer base for a Congressional campaign? There's another completely off-the-wall remark. I'm just engaging in idle chatter on BlueOregon on a subject I know a little bit about. I'm sure Paul and Kurt would go about building a volunteer base in much the same ways. They've both shown they know how to do that.
I like Kurt Schrader, but the idea that he could win over voters who think so highly of Paul just because people on a blog say so doesn't make much sense to me.
Yet another idea that exists only in your head. Kurt has a proven track record of "winning over voters". It has nothing to do with what people on a blog say. It's called "winning elections". I'm not predicting who would win in a primary between Kurt and Paul. I think the odds are they would both be excellent Congresscritters.
Feb 15, '08
Doretta, interesting you would say things are just in my head.
I got an email from a friend who reads BO saying it looks like some people want to run down one candidate because they are promoting another candidate.
My point about things like this is relevance. "I said Canby is politically more like Monmouth than like Portland". This isn't a class in poli. sci, this is an actual election involving real people.
So, I say yeah, and both Canby and Monmouth have more in common with Salem than with Portland. So what? Are you aware that Darlene Hooley is the only 5th District member of Congress from Clackamas County?
My point is that I have attended meetings of Polk Dems and I'm not sure how a statement like "Canby is politically more like Monmouth than like Portland". would go over in a roomful of Polk Dems.
And those of us who have worked hard to get people we know elected to Congress call them members of Congress, not " Congresscritters". Or are you not taking this election very seriously? Yes it takes money to run for Congress, but it also takes volunteers. How many Congressional campaigns have you been involved with, Doretta? Which ones?
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