OR-5: Initial polling from SurveyUSA

SurveyUSA has released its initial polling in the race to succeed Darlene Hooley.

Among Democrats, State Senator Kurt Schrader leads former Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks by a narrow 23-20 margin, with 57% undecided. (MoE 4.1%)

Interesting things in the crosstabs:

Among Republicans, 2006 loser Mike Erickson leads four-time statewide loser Kevin Mannix 44-40, with only 17% undecided. (MoE 5%)

Interesting things in the crosstabs:


  • Bill R. (unverified)

    The Dem race surprises me a little. As a resident of this district I would have thought Schrader would lead with more name recognition. But this poll tells me there isn't a lot of name recognition with the huge undecided. So there's time for Marks to step up.

    On the other side looks like the country club Rs vs. the social conservatives. Maybe the Rs are burnt out with Mannix. Erickson seems like such a sleaze though.

  • (Show?)

    I'm surprised Mannix is having such a hard time. The over 50/under 50 split is interesting. Some theories:

    • Older voters are more likely to remember Mannix was a Democrat and hold it against him.
    • Older voters have less patience for someone who's lost 3 statewide races.
    • Older voters are more likely to be frustrated with Mannix's prison spending spree.

    Of course it's all speculation, but I'm curious what people think on the over/under 50 split on Mannix/Erickson.

  • Jack Sullivan (unverified)

    Another question: What's with Marks doing so well with Democrats who say they are conservative or pro-life?

  • verasoie (unverified)

    Who would be the easier opponent for the Dems, Mannix or Erickson?

    I have to believe, in part from these polls but mostly because they confirm my earlier suspicions, that Mannix would be easier because he has more baggage and fewer financial resources. Erickson, as more of a "clean slate" candidate, seems to attract more moderate and independent voters, which I think will determine this race. Not that Schrader won't be able to him too, but I think Mannix simply has more baggage whereas Erickson seems to represent in (conservative) voters minds whatever they are looking for in a candidate, simply because he's taken so few firm stances on anything and has no track record.

  • Tom Civiletti (unverified)

    I wonder if most older Oregon Republicans still share Norma Paulus-Dave Frohnmayer moderate views, and so are turned off by Mannix's red-meat conservative populism.

  • Bert Lowry (unverified)

    I think Tom may be on to something. It's hard to remember, but before the 90s, the Oregon Republican Party was actually relatively respectable. They understood the economic and cultural issues in Oregon and, even though I disagreed with some of their prescriptions, they proposed solutions that made a certain amount of sense.

    Now, of course, they're angry, small, bitter and divorced from what Oregonians actually care about. They're obsessed with homosexuality and the Portland teachers' union. They've gone off the deep end.

    <h2>Perhaps the older Republicans remember a pre-Mannix time when the Republican Party was solvent and sane.</h2>
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