Competing views on voter turnout

Will there be huge record-breaking turnout in this primary election? Or just a big letdown?

According to Jeff Mapes at the Oregonian, it's gonna be huge:

Turnout among Democratic voters sailed past the 50 percent mark on Monday - and it wouldn't surprise me if we end up breaking the old D turnout record of 71.7 percent.

According to Wally Edge at, it's a big letdown:

Despite the vast efforts of the Barack Obama campaign to register over 30,000 new voters prior to the recent deadline and despite the alleged "huge projected" voter turnout in the Portland area, Oregon is only six percentage points ahead of where we were four years ago.

What do you think? Are we going to see a big surge late today and tomorrow?


  • Jefferson Smith (unverified)

    6% is a big jump. If you had that sorta change in employment figures, it'd be the subject of multiple books and Nobels and either rich-houses or poorhouses.

  • Jim Oleske (unverified)

    Mapes and Edge are looking at two fundamentally different numbers.

    Mapes is looking at Democratic turnout, which was at 52% by this afternoon.

    Edge is looking at overall turnout, which is lagging 12 points behind Democratic turnout, standing at 40% this afternoon.

    Edge uses the latter metric to take a dig at the Obama campaign, but he misses the point. Obama's campaign was registering Democrats, and the Democratic turnout looks to be very strong.

    Details of turnout by party and county available here.

  • M jordan (unverified)

    [Off-topic comment deleted. -editor.]

  • mike (unverified)

    [Response to off-topic comment deleted. -editor.]

  • Wagner (unverified)

    [Response to off-topic comment deleted. -editor.]

  • Logan Gilles (unverified)

    I think Wally Edge is a hack, and I doubt you'd find many who would disagree.

  • trishka (unverified)

    yeah, it's not clear to me how a 6% increase constitutes a letdown, but whatevs.

  • Wally Edge, Master Mathamagician (unverified)

    Boo Hoo, I'm Wally Edge and I only got a 6% pay raise this year!

  • Fair and Balanced (unverified)

    [Response to off-topic comment deleted. -editor.]

  • (Show?)

    I think we're going to have really good turnout among Dems.

    There are a lot of people like me who filled out their ballot already (I did mine the very first day), but hadn't turned it in for various reasons. For me it was because I was holding it while we found more people interested in being a PCP.

    A canvasser from the Obama campaign stopped by on Saturday and left lit, an invite to the rally, and drop locations. They came back today, so I sent them with mine and my sister's ballot. My hubby is filling out his tonight and I'll drop it off tomorrow.

  • Mjordan (unverified)

    How is a comment on Obama re: Oregon voters and environmental issues, off topic from turnout issues. Censorship is ugly no matter where it raises its head. Amazing. Let's just sanitize this whole website while we're at it and you, whoever you are, can determine what is appropriate. Goodbye Blue Oregon, forever.

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