Washington Post: Novick could upset Merkley
From the Washington Post:
The Fix by Chris Cillizza
Oregon: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley has been one of the most disappointing candidates so far this cycle. Recruited into the race by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Merkley has struggled to transition from state legislative politics to a U.S. Senate campaign. Those struggles have been exacerbated by the surprising strength -- fundraising and otherwise -- of party activist Steve Novick. Polling, public and private, suggests Novick could well pull the upset in Tuesday's primary. Democrats insist either candidate will be competitive against Sen. Gordon Smith (R), but that runs counter to the national party's decision to recruit Merkley when Novick was already running. (Previous ranking: 8)
Read the rest here.
Discuss.
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2:28 p.m.
May 16, '08
I hope not! Both are good progressives but Merkley is more electable IMO, and has been a very effective progressive legislator. I know I can depend on both Novick and Merkley's votes in the Senate, but I think Merkley has shown that he's a coalition builder. We don't have many progressive leaders in the Senate that can unite the Democratic party around progressive legislation. Merkley was able to do just that in Oregon and that's why I want him to win on Tuesday.
May 16, '08
"...but that runs counter to the national party's decision to recruit Merkley when Novick was already running." and a year ago Hillary was a shoo in and Barak was the best candidate for VEEP in American political history. The national party frequently seems to know squat about local conditions. They operate on the assumptions of a normal election, not one where a wildcard candidate emerges. Plus the party, even with Dean in charge, is still chagrined by Dean the wildcard's implosion.
2:41 p.m.
May 16, '08
Except that polling, public and private, has nearly uniformly revealed that Merkley is the one with the momentum.
2:49 p.m.
May 16, '08
"Except that polling, public and private, has nearly uniformly revealed that Merkley is the one with the momentum. "
Who's private polling are you privy to, Kevin?
And Merkley showed no momentum between the last two SUSA polls, and you know that. His movement was 3 points, which given a 4 point MoE means no known movement at all.
3:09 p.m.
May 16, '08
Why even bother, tj?
Kevin's someone who's willing to say anything, even when he as no evidence, just to run his mouth*. I can understand why Kari might have chosen him as an extra mouthpiece for Blue Oregon during the election season because Kevin's shamelessly partisan and is willing to blather on about things he doesn't know anything about, which makes Kari look almost reasonable (except for the part about choosing him in the first place).
May 16, '08
Why does this mailer from Novick we got call Merkley a pro-tax advocate?
3:24 p.m.
May 16, '08
"Why even bother, tj?"
an excellent question.
May 16, '08
The Washington Post death knell.
Merkley made a critical mistake on March 21, 2003, when he voted for House Resolution 2, endorsing the courage of George Bush in launching the war to remove Saddam Hussein, based on recital of unproven and untrue facts regarding WMD and Saddam's intentions.
He made a second mistake, when he said he did not regret that vote and boxed himself in, as Hillary has, as a silent co-conspirator in the launch of the War. Why can't these people just say, "I made a mistake?" John Edwards did.
Jeff's third critical mistake was to retain the speakership for the short session in 2008. That required real attention and work, when he might have been ramping up an energetic and enthusiastic campaign. As a result he has appeared (and probably has been) tired and lackluster. If they can see it from the East Coast, it must be.
May 16, '08
I think Merkley would be a better senator, but he is a lousy campaigner as he has proven over and over again. I voted for Novik because my goal here is not to elect the marginally better Democrat, but to beat Gordon Smith in November. Both are long shots, but Merkley is impossibly long.
I asked Jeff Merkley at a house party how he was different from Gordon Smith's past conquests of Bill Bradbury and Tom Bruggere and he couldn't give me an answer. All he could say was that this was a better year for Democrats than 02 and 96. He lost my vote that night.
May 16, '08
I agree with the Washington Post's assessment. Merkley has not run a very good campaign at all. Novick may win, but I hope not. He is not ready for Gordon Smith. It may be a blue state in a blue election but Smith is still a discipline politician who will not make very many mistakes and Novick will. Underestimating Gordon Smith or the Republicans is a dangerous move regardless of their idealogical stupidity.
May 16, '08
Merkley's mistake was not going on the air when Novick did. Novick ran a few ads, got 20-some percent of the public to say they'd vote for him, and managed to become the insurgent media darling ... with just 20-some percent of the vote. Once Merkley put out his own ads, he pulled ahead, but too late for the media to endorse the guy who looked surprisingly strong. It's not clear who will win, but the Merkley team timed their advertising poorly, staying dark and giving their opponent an opportunity to fill the vacuum.
May 16, '08
The patronizing TV advert featuring his daughter, which added more "sugar" to the already extra sweetened "Kool-Aid" that Jeff is pouring down the enthusiastic throats of his willing followers, didn't help matters either.
5:17 p.m.
May 16, '08
It's obvious that jeff Merkley loves his family, and they love him, including his daughter. She seems like a bright and charming child. And I'm sure she will always cherish the memory of being in that ad with her dad.
May 16, '08
I can definitely see why people would see it as cloying and treacly, but I side with "cute." Jeff's daughter is straight out of a Beverly Cleary novel.
6:23 p.m.
May 16, '08
Hey Sarah Lane, way to write a solid, well-argued positive post explaining your position.
As for the rest, the proof of the polls will be in the voting.
What if somebody put up a BlueOregon post about the Senate race and nobody came? Are there really any new arguments at this point? Anything to come out of them but irritating one another?
Over and out.
May 16, '08
If you didn't mail your ballot by today, please drop it off at one of the sites listed in your voter information bulletin.
I think most people have already voted.
May 16, '08
It's Novick's talent against the DSCC's money. Either way, Merkley has come up small according to all impartial observers.
Of course, Blue Oregon is Merkley-Central on the Net (despite the fact that Novick won the Blue Oregon poll) so no doubt Kevin et al will tell you why I'm wrong.
In any event, I won't be able to respond. Tomorrow morning, I'm flying across the country to Oregon to help out Novick beat Schumer and Company. It'll be tough ("fighting City Hall" usually is), but as the Washington Post suggests, it could very well happen.
May 16, '08
Excuse me, but which (public or private) poll has an undecided number below 20%?
If the undecideds don't listen to the punditry of national press like the Washington Post, and decide instead by reading, looking at websites, talking to friends, then all the national buzz may be for naught.
A relative who voted for Obama and Merkley got called by the KATU poll ("it was one of those where you punch buttons, 1 for this person, 2 for this person") and said "it was for president, Congress, and whatever Merkley is running against Novick for".
THAT is closer to the real world than many of the insiders who comment here. Most people's lives are not wrapped up in primaries---and in that regard, May 20, 21, 22, 23 will all be about the same for them in terms of their own lives.
Seems to me I heard someone talking about Tim Hibbitts polls done by humans vs. computerized polls on the radio recently ---making the point that polls where humans ask questions may be more reliable than machine polls.
Today after a political luncheon, I was talking with a friend who I know supports Novick. But it wasn't a contentious conversation (of the tone often seen here), but more "whoever our nominees are will be strong nominees" and how next Wed. we will know "the lay of the land" for 2008 after looking at the actual election results.
Rather than rehash the role of anyone from DSCC to BO, I'd like to see if anyone is willing to guess which counties Novick carries. In order to win a statewide race, he needs to carry more than just Multnomah.
May 17, '08
It is a sad day when the fight becomes about Chuck Schumer and not about Gordon Smith.
Would Steve Novick turn down money if the DSCC gave it to him?
National Democrats recruited Merkley to run for a long time because of his skill. So of course they will support the guy.
To Novick's credit, he has fought back and may in fact win, turn the page.
1:06 a.m.
May 17, '08
"National Democrats recruited Merkley to run for a long time because of his skill. So of course they will support the guy. "
I think they actually recruited him because the first seven people they asked said No.
Whatever skillset Chuck Schumer saw, it's relatively clear it's not what Oregonians particularly want, or Merkley would have more than a third of his money coming from actual voters who live here, and wouldn't need an infusion of $650,000 to beat a guy with no elective experience.
I mean, that's embarrassing. Six hundred and fifty grand EXTRA needed, on top of what he already raised, to pull even with Novick.
1:17 a.m.
May 17, '08
Of course Steve interviewed with these DSCC guys too. Apparently had no qualms at the time.
They turned him down.
Probably has nothing to do with the relative sweetness of grapes.
1:17 a.m.
May 17, '08
"willing to guess which counties Novick carries."
Hey, that's a fun challenge!
Multno and Wash, but Merkley perhaps takes Clackamas.
Novick gets Lane, Merkley more likely for Marion.
Novick gets Benton, Merkley gets Yamhill.
Novick gets Douglas, Merkley gets Deschutes.
Novick gets Baker.
That's a little gut, a little demographics, and a little ear to the wind.
Who else? Chris is right, we've made the cases for each endlessly. Let's game it out!
1:23 a.m.
May 17, '08
"Of course Steve interviewed with these DSCC guys too. Apparently had no qualms at the time."
Big difference between an uncontested and a contested primary there, Pat.
The issue is using money taken from Democrats to fight other Democrats. $400,000 could have done some real damage AFTER May 20th. It's ridiculous for them to spend that kind of money on false pride because their guy needs the boost. They put their chips down, and when their position looked weaker they doubled down and doubled down again.
I'm not sure who it's doing more for right now, Jeff or Steve. He's out there on Morrison being interviewed by KOIN talking about having the national party back Merkley, and it's "David versus Goliath, Godzilla and the Green Goblin." Is that last one even real? ;) Meanwhile, Jeff and Chuck are paying Obama rates for TV ads in a cacophony of last minute and only-shot appeals in all kinds of races. You know how much voter contact you could do instead with $300,000, if you had the organization statewide he claims he does?
Merkley can at least take solace in remembering that no one watches KOIN.
May 17, '08
"Of course Steve interviewed with these DSCC guys too. Apparently had no qualms at the time.
They turned him down.
Probably has nothing to do with the relative sweetness of grapes."
I don't begrudge Merkley the willingness to take money from D.C. That's not the issue. But given that he did, why hasn't he wiped the floor with Novick?
The answer to that is pretty obvious. Novick is just about ten times as interesting a figure. And that's why he'd make much more of a splash in Washington, where politicians like Merkley are a dime a dozen.
May 17, '08
I voted for Novick. I gave to Merkley. I didn't argue when DH put a Merkley sign in the yard (tradeoff for my Obama sign), and I found Merkley surprisingly good in person. It has gotten to where I don't care that much who wins and I am even enjoying the pie fight (I don't want any more to be the kind of person who rises above all that).
If I were sure who had the best chance against Gordon Smith, I would be all for him.
I really hope that when the dust settles, we can all refocus on the goal of getting Gordon Smith out of his seat.
May 17, '08
TJ, smart choice of Merkley in Marion County---that is where I live and have friends who are avidly Merkley.
No guess about Polk? Friends who are Novick fans live there.
Pat, you are wonderful!
One of the fights in this primary has been over use of language, specifically "acerbic, robust" language vs. well chosen words which get a point across without being harsh. (Joan Baez once said of one of her songs "it doesn't protest gently, but it sounds gentle").
Pat, your "Probably has nothing to do with the relative sweetness of grapes." comment was excellent! It is what many of us mean when we say we belong to the "scalpel is better than a chain saw" school of thought on effective communication.
May 17, '08
Merkley will take Washington, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, Lincoln, Coos, Curry, Josephine, Douglas, Marion, Linn, Hood River, Wasco, Gilliam, Morrow, Umatilla, Wallowa, Harney, Malheur, Yamhill and Union.
Novick is likely to take Multnomah, but not by much. He may win Baker.
Toss-up: Lane, Benton, Jackson, Jefferson, Lake, Klamath, Wheeler, Grant, Polk, Deschutes, Crook, Sherman.
If Merkley can do well enough in Multnomah County, he should be able to pull it off. And I think he'll keep Multnomah pretty close, based on my reactions in that county this week.
May 17, '08
We don't need another "coalition builder" in the Senate, we have the DLC for that...WE need somebody to kick butt, who isn't afraid to say what needs to be said.
10:55 p.m.
May 17, '08
I know the people who support Steve think he's "just the right guy" but TJ (maybe in another post) said the Senator from Oregon will be just #100. If that is so, how will Steve be any better than anyone else to kick butt and say what needs to be said?
I still believe, after all these months, that it is better to move slowly toward the direction you wish to go by building consensus rather than stomping your feet and getting no where at all. And this is where Novick and Merkley supporters, at least for now, do not agree.
May 17, '08
http://www.politickeror.com/michaelgrass/1615/who-would-be-stronger-democrat-run-against-republican-us-sen-gordon-smith
Poll Who would be the stronger Democrat to run against Republican U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith?
Steve Novick 50% Jeff Merkley 50%
1:19 a.m.
May 18, '08
"I know the people who support Steve think he's "just the right guy" but TJ (maybe in another post) said the Senator from Oregon will be just #100. If that is so, how will Steve be any better than anyone else to kick butt and say what needs to be said?"
Winston Churchill was a backbencher.
May 18, '08
i seriously doubt benton county is a toss-up. based on the number of yard signs out & the response of people i canvassed, i seriously doubt that novick will have trouble here. of course, i could be wrong, this being politics and all. hillary clinton could win benton county too.