New Poll: Merkley up by 9%. Also, new DSCC TV spot.
Zogby Interactive has released a new poll in the U.S. Senate race.
Oregon: Incumbent Gordon Smith is not sufficiently winning traditional Republican constituencies, and overall trails Democrat Jeff Merkley, 38%-29%. Independent candidate John Frohnmayer draws 8% and the Constitution Party’s Dave Brownlow gets 5%. Another 20% are unsure. ...Smith gets only 57% of Republicans and 60% of Conservatives. Merkley and Smith are tied among men, and the Democrat leads all income groups, including the highest we measure, more than $250,000. The survey included 821 likely voters in Oregon and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
That's right. In a poll that still included lefty independent John Frohnmayer at 8%, Jeff Merkley leads Gordon Smith by 9%.
Meanwhile, the DSCC's independent expenditure team has started airing a new ad in Oregon.
Update: Also, the Independent Party of Oregon has now nominated Jeff Merkley for U.S. Senate. He'll be listed on the ballot as a Democrat.
Discuss.
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July 31, 2008
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Jul 31, '08
That's good news, except for the fact that Zogby's polls are generally pure crap.
Jul 31, '08
This poll was conducted last month so it may be a little out dated which may be good or bad for merkley.
Jul 31, '08
Smith's financial entanglement with accused felon Senator Ted Stevens is just hitting the news which does not bode well for positive news stories concerning Smith in the upcoming months.
Gordon Smith just loves himself those crooked politicians. As I recall he contributed to the Tom Delay Defense Fund or a similar entity as well. I wonder why? Hummmmmmm?
12:47 p.m.
Jul 31, '08
Hopefully the poll is accurate, but I have severe doubts that it is; it's an online poll by Zogby Interactive, one of the least accurate pollsters. It's also a month old and has a candidate who is no longer in the race. So while I do hope Merkley's up that much, I'm taking it with a grain of salt.
Nice to see he got the Independent nomination though. Too bad we don't have fusion voting, then it would really make a difference.
1:53 p.m.
Jul 31, '08
I thought Frohnmayer dropped out -- does he still appear on the ballot?
Jul 31, '08
Maybe it is because I do not watch TV that much, but what I have seen is one thing, and maybe someone can clarify.
Smith's ads have him with the usual disclaimer "I am Gordon Smith and I approve this ad". However, the Merkley ads have the Dem committee approving them. I have yet to hear an anti-smith ad being approved by Merkley in his own voice.
So, has Jeff seen the ads the committee has approved, or is the committee running for the position? Or have I not watched the TV long enough?
2:53 p.m.
Jul 31, '08
Eric -- The ads that have a disclaimer saying they were created by the DSCC are exactly that - independently produced by the DSCC.
The DSCC is expected to spend tens of millions of dollars in Senate races around the country doing independent expenditure ads. Those ads are produced by a team inside the DSCC that is "firewalled" away from the campaigns. They can't talk to the campaigns, they can't get the ads approved by the campaigns, they can't even talk to the people inside the DSCC who do talk to the campaigns.
Why do all that? Because when the ads are independent of the campaigns, they're not restricted by campaign contribution limits that limit how much money the DSCC can give directly (or spend on behalf of) the campaigns.
It's a crazy system, but it's the one we have in 2008.
3:04 p.m.
Jul 31, '08
There's the more recent Rassmusen that shows them at a 46-46 tie, and averaged with the Zogby, you can see a giant pile of caveats, but its still good clean fun to run over to Pollster dot com and see that little blue line crossing that red line as it trends up while the red trends down.
A very cool place to be at the end of July. The DSCC ad should provide some comfort to guys like Hartmann who have been publicly fretting about the lack of response from the Merkley Team for the past couple of weeks.....
3:12 p.m.
Jul 31, '08
Although Frohnmeyer's positions on a number of prominent things were "lefty," he also has a persistent identity as an ex-moderate Republican independent. It would be interesting to know how much of his support came from NAVs or even still-registered Rs who feel abandoned by the hard-right 21st century RPO.
I wonder if people like that might still end up gravitating back to Smith, esp. given his running as a Bipartisan, at least in the western part of the state.
Even if not anything to use to bet on, these results might be a little bit of evidence that the more recent poll that showed Merkley & Smith in a statistical tie with Merkley having the specific number edge wasn't a fluke.
On the other hand, I wonder if the Constitution Party has polled anything like 5% anywhere else? That would be tres bad for Smith.
3:44 p.m.
Jul 31, '08
he also has a persistent identity as an ex-moderate Republican independent.
He also benefited from substantial confusion between himself and his brother, the president of UO and the former Oregon AG.
And I suspect at least some of those folks slide back to Smith.
5:58 p.m.
Jul 31, '08
Mary Starrett of the Constitution Party polled about 3.5% for Governor in 2006.
Jul 31, '08
This is fairly off-topic, but I was just watching, for some reason, an episode of Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In, and, well, does anyone else think Jeff Merkley looks like Dick Martin's doppelganger?
Jul 31, '08