Senate '08: Race tightening. Get to work.
Here's the latest poll polling trend in the U.S. Senate race. Leave everything on the road.
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Oct. 30, 2008
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Oct 30, '08
What poll? This is a tracking trend, an average. This is a deceptive heading designed to make people anxious, which averages in an earlier poll from Rasmussen which was an outlier, and didn't include the third party candidate.
Here are the last three polls, the smallest margin is five points.
<h1></h1>OR-SEN Oct 28 Hibbitts Merkley (D) 45%, Smith (R) 40%
<h1></h1>OR-SEN Oct 27 SurveyUSA Merkley (D) 49%, Smith (R) 42%
<h1></h1>OR-SEN Oct 17 Res. 2000 Merkley (D) 47%, Smith (R) 41%
4:35 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
Nope,
Latest is from Moore Information, a Republican pollster
Smith Merkley 10/27-28/08 400 RV
45 41
It is a small sample and we know nothing about the internals, but this is what the uptick for Smith in the graph is from.
Oct 30, '08
If I recall correctly from past years, Moore isn't a terribly accurate pollster. Nevertheless, thanks for posting this new information!
Oct 30, '08
Lots of organization have been playing fast and loose with their definition of "likely voters". By fast and loose I mean that their "errors" don't average out. AP, just five days ago, showed the national, popular vote to be a 1 point race for Obama with McCain closing.
Obviously that was only about 10 points off and if you look at how Obama voters compared to projected liklies in the primary, a lot more than that.
Are they really that important that it's worth rigging at this hopeless point?
Oct 30, '08
I'll take SUSA over Moore any day. Moore is the robocall specialist.
Oct 30, '08
If it's a Moore poll, it's junk.
Still, I am not advocating complacency.
Oct 30, '08
As they say, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.
We need to heartily participate in this weekend's efforts. GOTV is critical, and we are one day behind the 2004 pace. while Dems are showing up better than Rs in most cases, only a significant, full Dem turnout will put Jeff over the top.
I should add that working with the Merkley campaign folks has been terrific, and volunteers are out there talking up House District Dems, too.
This weekend is an ALLSTAR affair, with Howard Dean headed to Portland and Eugene on Sunday to pump up the base for helping the whole Dem ticket.
LET'S GET THIS THING DONE!
Oct 30, '08
PPP will have an Oregon poll out later tonight. I think it will have presidential and senate race numbers both. They've been a pretty good pollster this election.
Oct 31, '08
Merkley up by 8 pts ,leads Smith 51-43! Obama has commanding lead of 15 pts.-57-42! Obama leads 33 pts- 68-35 with those who have completed their ballots.
Just out from Public Policy Polling: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/merkley-running-away.html
Friday, October 31, 2008
Jeff Merkley 51 Gordon Smith 43 Dave Brownlow 4
Jeff Merkley is continuing to expand his lead in his quest to defeat Gordon Smith for reelection to the US Senate. He has a 59-37 advantage with those who have already voted and he's winning 45-39 with independents. This race has been universally headed in Merkley's direction for weeks now and it's probably too late for Smith to turn it around.
In Oregon's races for Secretary of State and Treasurer the Democrats lead. Kate Brown is up 51-40 for the former office, and Ben Westlund is up 47-41 for the latter."
More results here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Oregon_1031452.pdf
5:10 a.m.
Oct 31, '08
We are averaging 15 phone bankers on all shifts for Merkley at the Jackson County Democratic Headquarters. You can feel the intensity. You can see the persistance. You can admire Ian and Josh, field reps for Merkley for their gentle and courteous guidance for volunteers of all ages. I walk through and wave at the room full of volunteers, they look up and keep on calling. Like Markos said, "Leave everything on the road."
9:10 a.m.
Oct 31, '08
What poll? This is a tracking trend, an average.
Thanks, Bill R. I've fixed the text. And the graphic now has been automagically updated by Pollster.com to include the PPP poll. Phew!
9:12 a.m.
Oct 31, '08
Are they really that important that it's worth rigging at this hopeless point?
Actually, I think it's normal statistical variation. Margin-of-error exists for a reason. And don't forget that there's also a confidence interval as well.
In political polling, the standard is a 95% confidence interval. In other words, 95% of the time, the "true" results will be within the stated margin of error.
<h2>But that means that 1 in 20 polls will be wildly off - outside the margin of error. (And there have been much more than 20 polls in this race.)</h2>