OR-Gov: The King of Wishful Thinking (or, Rasmussen says its tied)
Carla Axtman
I don't know what they're smoking over there at Rasmussen: but it must be some powerful stuff:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Oregon finds Republican Chris Dudley with 45% support to former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber’s 44%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
And so for a news cycle, Dudley's campaign get to be The King of Wishful Thinking.
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11:28 a.m.
May 25, '10
You're in good company ripping Rasmussen's polling bias; here's a recent enrty from Kos:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/5/19/867829/-Rasmussens-%28dishonest%29-game
11:30 a.m.
May 25, '10
All you need to know to understand this is not a good poll is his claim that Dudley has a 26% edge among male voters. See the link to the full poll on his site (I refuse to link to him myself).
Right...
11:52 p.m.
May 25, '10
Note also that Rasmussen says Kitzhaber leads by 22% among women.
His numbers may be overblown, but I expect that there's a substantial gender gap. There always is between Rs and Ds.
Beyond that, Dudley is a sports figure. He's been getting huge coverage in local and national sports media, and far more men than women are likely to feel a personal connection to a basketball player they've been watching for years.
SurveyUSA had a gender gap in the last Dudley/Alley poll -- and Alley was actually leading among women.
Full disclosure: My firm built John Kitzhaber's website. I speak only for myself.
11:50 a.m.
May 25, '10
They consistently poll so far outside the mean of other pollsters that these results should be viewed with a very skeptical eye.
12:48 p.m.
May 25, '10
The title of Paulie Brading's post would apply equally well to this:
How Stupid Do They Think We Are?
1:53 p.m.
May 25, '10
Not particularly surprising given the pollster. Rasmussen has had a decidedly high house advantage to the GOP for a while now, and it has been especially high this polling cycle. Their "likely voter" model is typically heavily skewed in favor of GOP candidates.
AT
2:58 p.m.
May 25, '10
I was curious when I posted this if someone would pipe up to defend Rasmussen--and crow for Dudley.
Apparently not, at least in the several hours since I posted this.
(Paging Jack Roberts to the white courtesy phone)
6:46 p.m.
May 25, '10
I don't know about crowing for Dudley but why do we think this poll is biased or inaccurate? Is there something methodologically questionable or are we all just wary of Rasmussen for some other reason? Is there another recent poll that contradicts this one?
The DailyKos article attacks Rasmussen for what races they poll, not the results or methods of those polls. The fact that they selectively poll only certain contests doesn't undermine their credibility in my mind.
What am I missing here? This all seems pretty Ad Hominem.
This is my first BlueOregon comment and I am deeply sorry for bringing Latin into it.
11:54 p.m.
May 25, '10
Google is your friend here. Rasmussen bias is well documented.
1:05 p.m.
May 26, '10
I'll defend the weed. In my experience it leads to clearer perception of the connections between things, not this bunkum. I say they NEED to be smoking some good sh*t!
6:29 p.m.
May 25, '10
Well it's too early to crow for anyone but I find it curious that there really has been no substantive critique of Rasmussen's poll except that Democrats don't like the results.
Intuitively, I do think the race is wide open right now. Given the margin of error on this poll, that's all it is saying.
The gender gap seems skewed on both sides but they roughly even out. More curious from a review of the cross tabs is that Dudley gets 100% among black voters (admittedly a small percentage of voters in Oregon, but still a surprising result).
Ever harder to believe is that 100% of black voters dispprove of Obama's performance as President. Even as a Republican, I find that hard to believe.
Overall, I think this poll is closer to right than the other posters here but the basic message to Dudley's campaign is that they can win and to Kitzhaber's campaign is that they can lose.
I'm guessing both sides already knew that.
12:19 a.m.
May 26, '10
Nonsense. Their "house effect" is well documented and discussed. So far in the 2010 cycle, their polling has consistently and predictably shown better results for Republican candidates than other polling firms have.
8:06 a.m.
May 26, '10
Do you even read the stuff you link to, Mitchell? There is no documentation that, in actual races, Rasmussen "consistently and predictably" shows Republicans doing better than Democrats.
What is charted is the "generic congressional ballot" polling, which is not relevant to specific races and certainly not the races that have occured so far this year.
Rasmussen does have an unusual polling methodology but I've not seen any analysis of this methodology that suggests it has a partisan bias.
It is also alleged that he polls issues and races that he expects will support the "Republican narrative" but it is hard to see how the Oregon governor's race fits this model.
I'd love to see a serious analysis of Rasmussen's polling that goes beyond, "Rasmussen's a Republican so obviously his polling can't be trusted."
1:07 p.m.
May 26, '10
That's marketing for ya! Make an association, stick an asterisk next to it, and proclaim that everything else is nonsense!
8:52 p.m.
May 25, '10
This is a very unsettled year. For Dudley to win, or conversely for Kitzhaber to lose, we would need a "perfect storm" of economic collapse coupled with a furious electorate. Kitzhaber's 8 year exile to Colorado may have been a blessing. It will allow him to be able to view the structural problems of our state bureaucracy as an "outsider," almost like an anthropologist. That perspective coupled with is strong personal connections to Democratic leaders in our legislature (such as Al Bates) will allow him to make government more effective. Dudley, who is certainly unproven as an elected official, will have a difficult time proving that he could get anything accomplished with a legislature that will in all likelihood be controlled by the Democrats. Voters are indeed angry. They want a government that is both efficient and that works. That will be a tall order for both candidates.
11:55 p.m.
May 25, '10
Colorado? Huh?
Dude, he was in Oregon.
7:25 p.m.
May 27, '10
All we have to do is look at what Kitzhaber did and said to realize he is NOT the answer to what ailes this state. Look around David the perfect storm is upon us. The actual unemployement rate for this state is so much higher than what is publicized (a rate that is some sort of hybrid based upon people filing claims etc.) Welcome to your future if we give Kitz 1 more time at bat.
8:53 p.m.
May 25, '10
Dan and others,
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight (www.fivethirtyeight.com) did a nice job of breaking down Rasmussen's GOP leaning house effect this cycle in a recent post (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/use-of-likely-voter-model-does-not.html).
Essentially, Rasmussen doesn't do a lot of work to "clean up" their sample, often resulting in a demographic group that isn't representative of the real electorate. This could be especially true in Oregon, where a good number of young professionals in the Portland metro area, who are usually fairly liberal and vote Democratic, are cell-phone only or unreachable during the times Rasmussen attempts to call.
I haven't seen the cross tabs on this poll (Rasmussen charges $19.95 or something like that to get access to them), but my guess is that their voter registration advantage to Democrats is understated, and that the sample was more conservative, especially among the younger demographic, than the Oregon electorate actually is.
AT
6:23 a.m.
May 26, '10
Actually this is a good starting point for the general election. Assuming it were even, which it isn't, Dudley is unknown, no record, no known policy positions. The more he is known, especially as his ineptness and lack of knowledge in debates is clear, he will be a flash in the pan, an aging and mediocre basketball player.
1:14 p.m.
May 26, '10
who didn't have enough professionalism to spend the time to learn to make a free throw.
2:19 p.m.
May 26, '10
Seriously. I certainly don't think that making free throws - or being bad at them - has much to do with being governor, but here's the thing to realize:
Unlike every single other aspect of the game of basketball, free throw shooting is the one part of the game that is entirely unaffected by the actions of the others players.
Every opportunity to throw a free throw is exactly the same as every other opportunity. The ball is the same, you're standing in the same place, the hoop is in the same spot, no one can seek to block your free throw.
In short, free throw shooting is a perfectable skill. Now, so is archery and bowling, and there's still enough randomness and skill difficulty that it makes to have competitions -- so we shouldn't expect 100% free throw perfection from all players, but it is certainly interesting that this particular player was so singularly bad at it, despite the fact that it is a repeatable and practiced skill.
4:22 p.m.
May 26, '10
Considering this is a deficiency Chris shared with Wilt Chamberlain and Shaquille O'Neal, I'm not sure I would carry the sports analogy here too far.
4:29 p.m.
May 26, '10
Can't disagree, but Kari made my point exceptionally well!
9:03 a.m.
May 27, '10
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/new-poll-of-500-political-junkies.html
Nate Silver at 538 gets into what makes a Ras poll a Ras poll
7:20 p.m.
May 27, '10
Rasmussen is the premier polling company in the world...they called the 08 presidential election right on the money and they were the first to predict that Scott Brown could beat Coakley in Mass. they also don't do private polls for people and have no dog in any fight. They have also consistently shown Obama's numbers for what they are (dismal and getting worse) Perhaps Dudley and his new ideas and new direction for Oregon have captured the interests of true progressives. There is nothing at all progressive about anything Kitzhaber has done or proposes. Take an objective look at what this mad did what he said. There is nothing about Kitzhaber than can be twisted into sounding like a progressive direction for Oregon ...Nothing. Sounds like alot of Oregonians aren't tethered to one party or another like so many people here and are able to look past the R or the D and see the M (an) and the P (lan) he has for Oregon and when that happens Kitz loses. KItzhaber is running on one thing which until now has been enough to win in this state "hey I'm not a Republican" sadly as we can all see that kind of thinking at the ballot box has made Oregon and Oregonians the big losers.