OR-GOV: Swing State Project moves Kitzhaber/Dudley race to "tossup"

Carla Axtman

One of the reliably good progressive blogs doing "horse race" political blogging is Swing State Project. What's more, they're very, very good at predicting races. Last week, the boys at SSP made a whole slew of adjustments to their general election prognostications and if their look at the Oregon Governor's race is right, Team Kitzhaber had better step it up. They've moved the race from "Leans D" to "Tossup".

I bumped into DavidNYC, JamesL and Crisitunity during last week's Netroots Nation convention in Las Vegas. Crisitunity is the blogger who generally covers the Pacific Northwest. He talked with me about the team's decision to bump the race over.

"Swing State Project moved OR-Gov to Tossup largely on the basis of polling showing, almost without exception, a race within a point or two either direction," said Crisitunity. "That's primarily the prolific Rasmussen (whose reputation precedes them), and a few other pollsters we're leery of (openly Republican pollster Magellan, and SurveyUSA), but also Tim Hibbitts, who has a sterling reputation in Oregon. Even if the intangibles seem to support a Kitzhaber victory -- Oregon's Democratic lean, its long track record of electing Democratic governors, and the difference in candidate quality and gravitas -- the difficult nature of the year and the potential for Dudley to outspend Kitzhaber mean it can't be taken for granted and Kitzhaber could just as easily lose as win."

Crisitunity went on to say that they're "alarmed" by chatter they're hearing that Kitzhaber seems to be coasting on his well-earned reputation. They believe Kitz may also be viewing the race through an "outdated prism of bipartisanship and amicable problem-solving". Swing State is concerned that the former Governor is waiting for the inevitable need to throw some punches and define Dudley instead of trying to somehow "transcend politicking as usual."

Crisitunity also said that this race reminds him of a mini-version of California, where there's also a semi-legendary, successful former Governor trying for a repeat, but trying to stay above the fray. This is unwise against a Republican candidate who's saying nothing, hiding behind a lot of expensive ads and vague platitudes, and who's counting on that amorphousness to get over the top in a blue state. The Republican opposition needs to be given some form, before it's too late.

When I asked for a response from the Kitzhaber folks to Swing State's change in the race, new spokesperson Jillian Schoene said, "The numbers are not surprising; they have spent a lot of money buying TV time for a celebrity candidate who sticks to his talking points. But Oregonians are going too see through that pretty quickly."

Perhaps.

But given that Dudley is heavily outraising Kitzhaber right now, I'm wondering how Oregonians are going to see through a message that's essentially going uncountered, even if it is a bunch of empty platitudes and vague bullshitting.

By Carla Axtman July 27, 2010