Mayor 2012: In new poll, Brady leads Hales, Smith, and (surprise!) Tre Arrow

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Last night, SurveyUSA and KATU released their second poll in the race for Mayor of Portland.

As compared to the first poll, back in November, Eileen Brady gained two points (to 25%) to extend her lead over Charlie Hales, who dropped three points to 16%, and Jefferson Smith, who dropped four points to 10%.

SurveyUSA also asked respondents about tree-sitting activist and convicted arsonist Tre Arrow, who was supported by 7% of respondents; real estate broker Bill Dant, who got 3%; and Max Brumm, who got 2%. In addition to 28% who were undecided, another 8% declared their support for "another candidate". It's worth noting that in 2000, Arrow ran for Congress against Earl Blumenauer and won 6% of the vote.

SurveyUSA notes that "any outcome is possible". Here's some interesting notes from the crosstabs:

Of course, it's important to be careful about over-using the crosstab data. The numbers inside some of these cells are small enough to drive the margin-of-error very high. Overall, the margin was +/- 4.2% on a respondent base of 555 likely primary voters.

Here's a rundown of all previous polling:

2012-02-27SurveyUSA251610287 - Arrow, 3 - Dant, 2 - Brumm, 8 - "another candidate"
2011-11-07SurveyUSA1913113820 - Reese
2011-10-30Brady for Mayor26161048
2011-10-02Portland Business Alliance151394222 - "Any other credible candidate" "one of the other candidates"

Update: Tim Hibbits of DHM Research, the pollster who conducted the Portland Business Alliance poll, writes in to tell me that the PBA poll back in November did not use "any other credible candidate" as the poll language:

One clarification; the language used in that poll was not ‘any other credible candidate’; we’d never use language like that in a head to head survey. The language was ‘would you vote for Hales, Brady, Smith, or one of the other candidates’. Word credible was not in the poll question language.

The original reporting on "any other credible candidate" came from Willamette Week's Nigel Jaquiss. It's unclear why his reporting included that phrasing.

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    Full disclosure: My firm built Eileen Brady's campaign website. I speak only for myself.

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    so, in the 3 months since the last SurveyUSA poll, Brady has gone up, Hales & Smith have gone down, and undecideds are starting to settle. having 21 candidates is probably going to force a general election runoff, esp if a bunch of them get 1-2% each. that adds up.

    the big question: whose votes is Arrow getting? i'm guessing it was fringe left undecideds. and as someone who works part-time for the Brady campaign, her steady numbers & the fact that voters agree with her on the #1 issue — the economy & jobs — is good news.

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    FYI, I've updated this post to include a clarifying note about the November PBA poll.

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    This will all come down to what happens in the last month of the campaign. Charlie Hales won his first city council race because of how he performed at a city club debate and last minute mailings. Prior to that he was well behind and given no chance.

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    Headlines reveal so much.

    KATU: 'Undecided' leads in Portland mayor's race

    Merc: New Mayor's Race Poll Shows "Undecided" in Lead

    BO: In new poll, Brady leads Hales, Smith, and (surprise!) Tre Arrow

    The real surprise is that Tre Arrow is nipping at Wunderkind Smith's heels.

    Full disclosure: I once worked for Mr. Eileen Brady, but his long-term, vehement anti-union attitudes are his, not hers.

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    Had SurveyUSA included Max Bauske, I think he would have pulled down at least 16%.

    Full Disclosure: I live with Max Bauske.

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    Steve Rawley didn't hate Portland, he just decided there were limited positive options for his middle school daughter. He was right too.

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