Mayor 2012: TV ads, poll numbers, endorsements, oh my!

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Here's a rundown of the latest in the race for Mayor in Portland.

Eileen Brady is the first on the air, with two spots airing in rotation. They're very different in style, but both focus on her public and private sector experience, and emphasize her message on job creation.

Charlie Hales has released a polling memo (pdf) from EMC Research that says Hales is tied with Brady. It's Hales 21%, Brady 21%, Smith 11%. With leaners, Hales 25%, Brady 23%, Smith 12%.

As compared to a SurveyUSA poll from a month earlier, Brady and Smith roughly stand pat, while Hales jumps ten points. It doesn't seem plausible that there would be such a move, since nothing major has happened that would cause that sort of voter movement.

Hales didn't release the full questionnaire nor crosstabs, but the pollster is credible and respected, so there's been no suggestion of any funny business with the poll. It may be an outlier. Or perhaps Hales is up to something that no one is seeing. (One of his supporters recently dropped a card on my doorstep that had a handwritten "Sorry I missed you, Charlie" note on it -- though it wasn't Charlie, and he didn't bother to knock. Maybe that's a brilliant new strategy.)

In any case, here's the rundown of previous polling:

2012-03-26Hales for Mayor21211139
2012-02-27SurveyUSA251610287 - Arrow, 3 - Dant, 2 - Brumm, 8 - "another candidate"
2011-11-07SurveyUSA1913113820 - Reese
2011-10-30Brady for Mayor26161048
2011-10-02Portland Business Alliance151394222 - "one of the other candidates"

Jefferson Smith announced the endorsement of CWA 7901, the communication workers union.

Hales won the endorsement of the Oregonian, as previously noted by Evan Manvel. That's not a big surprise, as the establishment paper typically endorses the establishment candidate.

The Portland Monthly's Zach Dundas asked all three candidates to identify a place that "captures their vision of the city." Jefferson Smith picked David Douglas High School; Charlie Hales picked the Southwest Community Center; and Eileen Brady picked educational nonprofit Zenger Farm. Check out the full article.

And Charlie Hales is hosting a citywide scavenger hunt and a dance party, as noted by the Mercury's Alex Zielinski. Actually, it kind of sounds like fun. Maybe I'll go.

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    Full disclosure: My firm built Eileen Brady's campaign website. I speak only for myself.

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      Kari, Was the "sorry I missed you" note already printed on the Hales campaign card or did a canvasser actually hand-write the note? It'd be alarming if some volunteer canvasser is trying to mislead voters.


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        "One of his supporters recently dropped a card on my doorstep that had a handwritten "Sorry I missed you, Charlie" note on it -- though it wasn't Charlie, and he didn't bother to knock. Maybe that's a brilliant new strategy."

        I hate to disillusion anybody, but that's an old campaign trick. I'm not condoning it and, no, I never used it myself, but my opponent did in 1988. And I'm sure he didn't invent it.

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          You referring to a canvasser handwriting a note or using "sorry I missed you" cards? Because truth be told, I got the same card from the Hales campaign. The handwritten note was an image printed on the card. You can tell that it was not written by a pen. I got the impression that Kari was saying that the Hales campaign was trying to deliberately mislead voters. Now I feel that Kari was trying to mislead me as a reader.

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            Looking closely at it now (and rubbing on it with my thumb), I see that it's pre-printed. Pretty well done, I'd say.

            Either way, I think dropping a card that says, "Sorry I missed you, Charlie", when Charlie didn't actually show up at my door is a bit weird.

            Not a mortal sin, to be sure. But a little odd, at least.

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    Kari - You've got a cut-and-paste error on the Hales poll date, it was at the end of March this year.

    It's in the same ballpark as the others, that show there are a huge number of undecideds, and no candidate is breaking 26%.

    And I'm curious about the assertion that Hales is the clearly the "establishment" candidate. The PBA (perhaps the conservative "establishment") endorsed Brady, and Brady's the leading money raiser.

    Do you think Hales is "establishment" because he was on council for ten years? Or because he was endorsed by Vera Katz? Or?

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      It does seem like you've pegged Hales as the establishment candidate based only upon his service on Council (until he quit midway through his last term). Because surprisingly few electeds are lining up behind him.

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        Yeah, I suppose one could overinterpret "establishment".

        What I meant here is that the Oregonian almost always endorses the candidate with the most formal experience. Almost always the incumbent, and in an open race, the candidate with the most formal experience.

        They talk a big game about changing the way we govern ourselves, but that rarely turns up in who they endorse for public office.

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      You've got a cut-and-paste error on the Hales poll date, it was at the end of March this year.

      Good eyeballs. Thank you. Fixed.

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      The PBA (perhaps the conservative "establishment") endorsed Brady

      As did the Portland Green Party (placing Eileen Brady #2 on their list of three endorsees, behind Cameron Whitten and ahead of Jefferson Smith.)

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        The Portland Green Party, that refuses to endorse Earl Blumenauer, Suzanne Bonamici, Mary Nolan, and Steve Novick, and who's defending the initiative system of Bill Sizemore's Measure 47 and the land use planning destruction of Measure 37?

        They might have a nice name, but their endorsement doesn't mean much to me. And I wrote my college thesis in support of the U.S. Green Party.

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          Hah, Evan.

          The Greens strongly opposed Measure 37 but strongly supported Measure 47.

          If anybody gets credit for Measure 47 it is Dan Meek, not Bill Sizemore. Not sure what you're smoking dude.

          As far as Blumy and Bonny, we have our own candidates -- why would we endorse the Dems in a race where we have our own candidates? And Mary Nolan and Steve Novick are strong opponents of the initiative system. Their records are clear on that.

          As much as you don't like it that Oregonians get to vote on issues not getting a hearing in the legislature, democracy is democracy. If the Dems started enforcing Measure 47 and started working for real campaign finance reform, we wouldn't have Loren Parks types donating to Sizemore campaigns and getting stuff on the ballot that violate the spirit of the Oregon System. Instead, the Dems decided to dismantle the initiative system as much as possible and now virtually no progressive initiatives make the ballot statewide. Conservative initiatives still get play -- it turns out the assault backfired. Why? Again, no campaign finance reform means only the corporate groups can finance over the hurdles.

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            Think we're referring to two different Measure 47s, Seth. I was referring to Sizemore's that gutted fairness in our tax system rather than the more recent one.

            The endorsement process you set up seems to reflect IRV, which would mean Blumenauer and Bonamici could be second or third choices. Instead, they're not chosen at all, despite being two of the most impressive voices in Congress.

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    Another campaign's publicly released internal poll showed a positive result for their candidate with no methodology included? WEIRD!

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    Anyone else find it strange that one of Brady's spots features her driving around town in a Single Occupancy Vehicle?

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      And on a bike, and walking, and standing.

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        don't blink or sneeze to miss that cycle tour.

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          Eileen actually does bike, so doesn't have to do a lot of publicity photos, pretending to be a cyclist. I realize it takes a lot to commute by bike regularly, but I'm pretty sure Jefferson would admit to not being much of a cyclist.

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            And I don't mean to suggest that Jefferson doesn't support bikeways, etc. All the candidates do; I think Eileen just happens to be the biggest commuter of the lot.

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              Jefferson was honored and humbled to receive the endorsement of Bike Walk Vote (the political arm of Portland’s biking, walking, and transit community) in the mayoral race. "Jefferson Smith sets himself apart from the other candidates with his compelling commitment to promoting equitable transportation investments in underserved Portland communities, and his unequivocal cost-conscious critique of the proposed Columbia River Crossing supports the smartest path for saving the most taxpayer dollars while moving people and freight." Thanks, Bike Walk Vote!

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    I’ve my own blog post “'Localism' of Portland's political culture crippling our economic future.” Brady’s second video above is a good example of it. I’m on board with trying to buy more goods and services locally and seeking to create a more sustainable and resilient economy in our region, but that is not enough. It's incomplete. Our best opportunities for a prosperous economy are abroad (because that is where economic growth is taking place). So the “local” focus needs to be balanced with a new international focus. And Brady’s video, unfortunately, only panders “to the provincial, local-focused political culture that is Portland. It is crippling our economic future.”

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    Oh no she drives a car!!!! Like 90% of Portlanders!!! The horror!!!

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