Punditology 2012: what's our collective, conventional wisdom?

Kari Chisholm

At long last, it is finally Election Day. And, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 189 folks who participated in the 2012 Oregon Primary Punditology Challenge. Our participants include journalists, lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, elected officials, and a whole lot of political junkies and activists.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favored candidate is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work, and prove us all wrong!)

Also, note that these percentages say nothing about the expected vote totals. If 100% of us think that a candidate is going to win 51% to 49%, the number you'll see here will be 100%.

To the predictions!

---

First, there's no surprise in the Presidential. 98% think Mitt Romney wins it, and 90% of us think he'll get over 50% of the vote. 74% think Ron Paul places second. And 53% think Rick Santorum comes in third behind Romney and Paul. (And speaking of federal races, 80% think Fred Thompson will beat Karen Bowerman for the right to challenge Congressman Kurt Schrader.)

Second, the Attorney General race. 56% of you think that Ellen Rosenblum will defeat Dwight Holton. In Punditology terms, that's pretty much a toss-up. (Keep in mind that in 2010, 97% of us thought John Kitzhaber would win - and that outcome required 48 hours of vote-counting to settle.)

Third, the Mayor's race:

• The most common single outcome choice was Hales #1, Smith #2 with 35% predicting that outcome. 17% flipped those two around, for a total of 52% calling it a Hales/Smith runoff.

• A total of 28% call it a Brady/Smith runoff, with 17% saying Brady will lead and 11% saying Smith will lead.

• A total of 19% think it will be a Hales/Brady runoff, evenly split on the order of finish.

• Slicing it another way, 79% think Jefferson Smith will be in the top two, 71% think Charlie Hales will be in the top two, and 48% think Eileen Brady will be in the top two.

• As for fourth place, 26% each call it for Cameron Whitten and Tre Arrow, while 13% call it for Scott Fernandez.

Fourth, the Portland City Council races:

• 99% think Steve Novick is going to win outright (despite a recent poll showing him at 49% of the vote.) On the tiebreaker, the number of votes ranged from 10,011 to 450,000 -- with a median selection of 66,541 votes.

• 16% of us think that Mary Nolan is going to win outright, while 15% think Amanda Fritz will. 68% think it'll be a runoff, with 39% of those thinking Fritz takes the pole position.

More on the jump, including the barnburner primary challenges between Mike Schaufler and Jeff Reardon, and Tim Knopp and Chris Telfer...

Oregon Supreme Court: This is a total mystery heading into election night. 46% think Tim Sercombe makes the runoff (and another 17% think he wins outright). 47% think Dick Baldwin makes the runoff (and another 9% think he wins outright.) And 43% think Nena Cook makes the runoff (and another 7% think she wins outright.)

Clackamas County Commission:

• A Dave Hunt/John Ludlow runoff is the single most common option in the Chair race, with 36% making that call.

• 75% of us think Dave Hunt makes a runoff - and another 11% think he wins outright. 43% think Ludlow's in a runoff, with 1% calling him the winner now. 32% put Charlotte Lehan in a runoff. And 22% have Paul Savas in the runoff, with 2% calling him the winner now.

• 51% of us think Martha Schrader wins her seat (#3) outright, with another 44% placing her in a runoff (32% Jim Knapp, 13% Jeff Caton.)

• 56% of us say Jamie Damon makes a runoff for position #4, while 7% say she wins it now. 52% say Tootie Smith is in a runoff, with 8% calling it for her now. 30% say John Swanson makes it into a runoff. And 25% say Dan Holladay is in a runoff, with 4% calling it now.

Jackson County: 72% of us think Rob Patridge either wins or leads the race for DA.

Lane County: 77% of us think Pete Sorenson wins re-election over Andy Stahl, while 59% of us think Pat Farr (a former Republican legislator) will defeat Rob Handy.

Multnomah County: 91% of us think the library levy will pass.

Washington County: 91% of us are calling it for Dick Schouten over his challenger, Betty Bode.

Metro Council: 48% think Sam Chase wins outright, while 42% think he'll place first and wind up in a runoff. 5% think Helen Ying will win outright, while 4% say she'll lead heading into the runoff.

And finally, the legislative primary races:

• I'll start by apologizing for just plain forgetting to include Ben Unger and Katie Riley in HD-29. That'll have to be an election night mystery!

• 68% are calling it for Jennifer Williamson over Sharon Meieran in the HD-36 race.

• 75% say Jessica Vega Pederson will defeat Thuy Tran in HD-47.

• 80% think Gail Whitsett will win the Republican primary in HD-56 over Tracey Liskey.

• 59% are calling it for Tim Knopp in his primary challenge to Senator Chris Telfer in SD-27. Wow.

• And... drum roll please... 61% are calling it for Jeff Reardon over Rep. Mike Schaufler in HD-48. If true, kaboom.

To see the full results, go here. And now, we wait. And work.

Good luck, everyone!

By Kari Chisholm May 15, 2012