Playing nuclear chicken, the Democrats ran the GOP off the road.

Kari Chisholm

At first blush, yesterday's filibuster "deal" looked like another missed opportunity for the U.S. Senate Democrats. After all, there were at least 51 votes to do away with the filibuster altogether on executive nominations - and instead of pulling the trigger, the Democrats allowed the Republicans to blink, allow votes on seven nominees, and maintain the rules as-is.

But consider this: The Republicans did, in fact, blink. And that means that they agreed that the Democrats had the power (and the votes) to do away with the filibuster. And while this deal isn't the same thing as permanent reform, it's also not the same thing as the toothless "gentlemen's agreements" we've seen before. This time, the Democrats made it clear that they're not going to take it anymore. They basically got everything they wanted, and the GOP got to pretend that the Democrats backed off -- which they've not done.

Here's how the WaPo's Ezra Klein put it:

The Senate didn’t actually go nuclear today. But the majority took out a nuke, put it on the table, and made clear they can detonate it whenever they feel like.

Daily Kos's Jed Lewison notes that today's "deal" is an all-parties admission that the filibuster is now, unofficially, optional:

This battle was fought over presidential nominations, but the key thing is that virtually every Democratic senator has now taken the position that the filibuster can be eliminated by a majority vote. That's a big deal because if you can get rid of a super-majority requirement by simple majority vote, then the super-majority requirement is essentially optional.

And this "new normal" (as one Democratic aide put it to Ezra) doesn't just apply to executive appointments. It applies to legislation and judicial nominees, too. As Markos Moulitsas points out:

Democrats can now wield this against Republican obstructionism in legislation and judicial matters as well....

[If] Republicans continue to prevent up-or-down votes on further administration officials, or perhaps more importantly, judicial ones, Democrats now have a tool to force action. And that means we've come a long way from a few years ago, when Senate Democrats simply shrugged at the inevitability of the GOP filibuster arguing they had no other option.

If we had this four years ago, for example, we'd have a far better health care law. But late is better than never.

And to complete the DK trifecta, it's worth noting - as Joan McCarter does - that this also puts the Democrats on the spot:

The fact that Harry Reid has refused to give up the nuclear threat and is keeping it in his pocket means that they've effectively killed the filibuster: as long as they remain willing to use this threat. That means anything that Republicans successfully block in the future will be because Democrats wanted it blocked. They'll be just as culpable, and won't be able to go back to whining about obstruction any more.

I'll give the last word to Senator Jeff Merkley, who pledged to keep up the fight for filibuster reform:

Some special interests still want to paralyze the Senate with further abuse of the silent filibuster. They want to obstruct our progressive agenda at every turn, abusing the filibuster to escape accountability and protect sweetheart deals at our expense.

Thanks to today's agreement, we'll allow important agencies to do the people's business. But if it turns out to be a one-day truce, then I won't hesitate to pick up the torch again to end filibusters on the President's nominees. And regardless, we need to keep up the fight to fix the way the Senate works on bills and judicial nominations.

By Kari Chisholm July 17, 2013