Punditology 2016: Our collective, conventional wisdom

Kari Chisholm

Our long national nightmare is almost over. And by that, I mean, that the toxic orange menace is finally going to achieve his lifelong dream -- and get his very own streaming video service ($7.99 a month and no commercials!) that we'll all be able to ignore. (Irony alert: He'll make more money than he's ever made before.)

Anyway, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 218 people who think they're smart enough to call 'em all in 2016. Our participants include lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, journalists, elected officials, formers of all sorts, and a whole lot of political junkies and activists.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. See 2014, 2012, 2010, and 2008. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favorite campaign is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work today, and prove us all wrong!)

Also, note that these percentages say nothing about the expected vote totals. If 100% of us think that a candidate is going to win 51% to 49%, the number you'll see here will be 100%.

To the predictions!

First, the presidency:

This is an easy one. 97% of us think that Hillary Clinton is going to win. Please let us be right.

52% of us think it'll be a 300 to 331 electoral vote win -- solid, but less than Obama '12. 28% of us are panicking, worrying about a 270 to 299 vote win. 12% of us think it'll be bigger than Obama '12 (332 to 364 votes). Just 2% think it'll be bigger than Obama '08 (over 365 votes.)

• 73% of us think that North Carolina goes to Clinton.
• 63% of us think Ohio will land in Trump's column.
• 61% of us think Iowa will go to Trump.
• 32% of us think that Arizona will go over to Clinton.
• 20% of us think Florida will be painted red for Trump.
• All the rest were under 10% "likely to flip"
• Just 13% of us think that a third-party candidate will win a state.

If we're right that NC, OH, and IA are the only changes from 2012, then that's 323 electoral votes for Clinton.

Second, the fight for control of Congress:

• 94% think Russ Feingold (D) is back, baby!
• 86% think Marco Rubio (R) hangs on in Florida.
• 83% think Catherine Cortez Masto (D) keeps Reid's seat in Nevada.
• 78% think Katie McGinty (D) gives Pennsylvania two Democratic Senators.
• 71% think Maggie Hassan (D) paints New Hampshire blue again.
• 57% think Evan Bayh (D) takes his seat back in Indiana.
• 59% think Richard Burr (R) ekes it out in North Carolina.

• 56% think Roy Blunt (R) hangs on in Missouri.

• In Louisiana, 22% think an R wins outright. 64% think an R leads but will face a runoff. Just 10% think a D will lead and face a runoff, and barely 3% think a D wins outright (optimists!) (Oh, and the 5% over/under for David Duke is a coin flip, 51-49% against.)

Put all those race-by-race calls together, and our consensus call is that there will be a 50-50 tie -- unless the Democrats can snatch that Louisiana seat in a tough December runoff.

That said, we had little agreement when pegging the number. 28% think the GOP will have 47 or fewer seats. 20% think they'll have 48. 27% think they'll have 49. 14% are calling the 50-50 tie. Just 11% think the GOP retains its majority with 51 or more seats.

Finally, 92% of us think the Republicans retain control of the House, but just 4% think the majority will grow. 65% think the GOP will lose a net 18 or fewer seats, and 24% think it'll be 19 to 29 seats lost.

Third, our statewide races in Oregon:

• 76% think Senator Ron Wyden is re-elected with 20% or more. 22% think it'll be over 10%. Just 2% think it'll be an under-10% win. Zero people think he is going to lose.

• 50% think Governor Kate Brown will win by 10% o more, while 48% think she'll win by less than 10%. Just 1% think we'll be saying "Governor Bud" anytime soon.

• 77% think Brad Avakian will be our next Secretary of State -- with 49% saying it'll be a close 1% to 5% win, 15% saying it'll be a tight under-1% win, and 13% calling it an over-5% win.

• 93% think Tobias Read will win the big chair at the state treasury -- with 50% saying Republican Jeff Gudman will be #2 and 43% saying IPOer Chris Telfer will be #2.

• 79% think Measure 97 will lose -- with 58% saying the Yes vote will be 45% to 50%, and 21% saying it'll be worse than that. (C'mon, folks, let's GOTMFV today and prove ourselves wrong!)

Fourth, the Oregon legislature:

In the Senate...

• 57% think Tonia Moro (D) will keep Senator Alan Bates's SD-3 seat in Democratic hands.
• 95% think Arnie Robland (D) will win re-election in SD-5.
• 98% think we'll keep our majority. (21% think we'll grow to 19 or more seats.)

In the House...

• 93% think Paul Evans (D) is re-elected in HD-20.
• 86% think Julie Fahey (D) wins Val Hoyle's HD-14 seat.
• 86% think Mark Meek (D) hangs on to Brent Barton's seat in HD-40.
• 81% think Julie Parrish (R) wins again (sigh) in HD-37.
• 79% think Knute Buehler (R) will prep his 2018 race for Governor from his seat in HD-54.
• 67% think Janelle Bynum (D) will win the race for Shemia Fagan's seat in HD-51.
• 62% think Teresa Alonso Leon (D) hangs on to Betty Komp's HD-22 seat.
• 59% think Mike Nearman (R) survives his IPO challenger in HD-23.
• In HD-24, it's a dead-even coin flip between Ken Moore (D) and Ron Noble (R) in Jim Weidner's HD-24 seat.

In other words, putting all that together, our consensus is that a possible 36-seat Democratic supermajority is a coin flip -- and something to watch closely tonight!

Individually, we're not quite that confident. Just 26% of us think 36 seats is likely. 27% think there will be no change; 35 seats for the Ds. 46% think we'll lose seats, but retain the majority. Zero people think we will either have a 30-30 tie, or that the Democrats will lose the majority.

Finally, the local stuff:

• 89% think Steve Novick will win re-election to the Portland City Council.
• 75% think Sharon Meieran will join the Multnomah County Commission.
• 64% think Jim Bernard will knock off the Clackamas County Bully, John Ludlow. (Pleeeeeease!)
• 63% think Tootie Smith will survive and get re-elected in Clackamas County.
• 41% think progressive Jon Gustafson will be the next Mayor of Lake Oswego, while 37% think incumbent Republican Mayor Kent Studebaker will win out -- leaving 21% calling it for Tea Party favorite Dave Berg.
• 58% think Steve Callaway will win the Mayor's race in Hillsboro.
• 57% think Emily Semple will win the Ward 1 seat on the Eugene City Council.

Oh, and the tiebreaker:

• The median number of votes for Evan McMullin in the presidential race in Utah is 259,000 votes. If he beats Hillary Clinton for second place, that will echo 1992, when Ross Perot placed second ahead of Bill Clinton.

And there you have it. There's nothing left to do but wait. And work, dammit!

Good luck, everyone!

By Kari Chisholm Nov. 08, 2016