Oregon shows job increase for second straight month

Oregonian:

Oregon gained 6,300 jobs in November across a broad range of industries, leading economists to say the state's unemployment rate -- still lodged at 10.6 percent -- might decline sometime soon.

Read the full article here. Discuss below.

Posted on Dec. 15, 2010
 comments

  • 9:12 a.m.
    Dec 15, '10
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    6,300 job gain, 3,700 of which are government jobs.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

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      1:52 p.m.
      Dec 16, '10
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      Yes, because gov. jobs aren't real jobs and government workers don't spend their paychecks into the local economy our buy goods and services form private businesses.

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    11:26 a.m.
    Dec 15, '10
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    Not quite. You are using the unadjusted number for government hires and the adjusted number for the total. On a seasonally adjusted basis the total growth was 6,300 while the government job growth was only 400 jobs. http://www.qualityinfo.org/pubs/pressrel/1210.pdf

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      1:31 p.m.
      Dec 15, '10
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      I'm going by this paragraph:

      "Government took on 3,700 jobs in November, 400 above normal expectations. The educational and health-services sector increased by 900, when a loss of 200 would be normal."

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        4:06 p.m.
        Dec 15, '10
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        Understood, but you mixed the adjusted and unadjusted numbers. The standard analysis and reporting that we are used to reading in the newspapers uses the adjusted numbers to reflect what is different month-to-month. The 400 above normal really means that there was a seasonally adjusted gain of 400.

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          6:02 p.m.
          Dec 15, '10
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          I'm not following you, John. And I did labor over the article and the various numbers in it from the start.

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            11:28 a.m.
            Dec 16, '10
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            There are two sets of numbers provided in every employment/unemployment report, both at the state and federal level. One is the raw data; how many people are employed and unemployed for that specific month.

            The second set are the seasonally adjusted numbers. For example, retailers always add people in November and September and then reduce them in January. Schools add teachers in August/Sept. Construction goes down in winter months. The adjustments are made so that we can determine if employment is really growning/shrinking as opposed to the ebb and flow of the seasons.

            The report this week said that seasonally adjusted jobs grew by 6300 of which 400 were government jobs. The unadjusted numbers had an increase of 4,900 in total of which 3,700 were government. They said the government increase were temporary county workers for the elections.


            • 1:52 p.m.
              Dec 16, '10
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              Is this your job? Can we at least agree that the news report would lead the average person to take it as I did?

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                1:58 p.m.
                Dec 16, '10
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                So are you defending reporting without full context by The Oregonian or the ignorance of the public?

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                3:18 p.m.
                Dec 16, '10
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                It is not my job. I am a businessman with an on-going interest in economics. I cannot speak for how the public reads reports, but the information was all there. I do agree that if someone is not familiar with the concept of seasonally adjusted vs. unadjusted numbers it is easy to be confused.

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    11:29 a.m.
    Dec 15, '10
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    Oh, and the entire government job seasonally adjusted job growth in November was federal. State and local jobs shrank (seasonally adjusted).

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