Ore. gay rights group won't seek 2012 ballot measure

I served on the BRO Advisory Board with folks from a wide array of politically friendly orgs & groups. As an Oregon LGBT activist for over 20 years, I was as ready as anyone to spring forward and do this thing in 2012. But BRO has done it's homework. Between professional polling, an impressive voter contact campaign recently completed, a TV ad campaign, online surveys, and important data from other determining factors, BRO came to the correct decision based on what the question really needed to be.

The question wasn't simply "Can we do this?" but "Can we do this & win?" Projections now are at a 50-50 electoral split for 2012. While nothing is guaranteed until election day, if our best bet is 50-50, we risk a grueling, resource draining, emotional campaign that could produce a result setting us back a decade. A loss would be devastating, and regrouping would be a slog, at best. Voters are disinclined for redux after a loss, and opponents would be armed with the "voters have spoken twice" argument.

A win could happen in 2012, & public opinion is moving steadily our way, but the other mitigating factors of going electoral leads to the decision of "not yet." The political climate is in disarray; voters are angry if not volatile, and how they respond to candidates, let alone initiatives, is uncertain. More concerned with their own economics, marriage equality and other initiatives may well get more NO votes because folks are laser focused on the economy and their own situations.

Which leads to the predominant component in any election - campaign funding. For this campaign to be successful, it may take as much as $10 million. In 2012, donor dollars will be stretched 6 ways from Sunday. While there will be certainly be competing demands in 2014, we already can read the stretched market before us in 2012.

BRO had to make an objective decision based on the best facts, resources and evaluation available. To move forward now based on emotional will, in defiance of what the analysis has laid out for us, would not only be irresponsible but potentially catastrophic.