Stunning Accuracy

Jesse Cornett

On occasion here on Blue Oregon there will be snippets about non-political things in the contributor's lives. Rarely do we do it to toot our own horn. Last week Kari Chisholm mentioned this article to me, written about another of his websites Last night he mentioned some national buzz about the site and his, according to the media, "stunningly accurate" predictions of the Stiff Arm Trophy winners. So here I am to toot his horn for him (while still not using the H-word, in order to not anger the Trophy gods).

Others may have predicted Trophy winners in the past. Kari, it seems, has used basic methods learned from elections to not only figure out who the winner wil be in advance, which is widely expected to be a Reggie Bush runaway this year, but the margin of victory. Nobody will be surprised if Reggie runs away with it. Thanks to Kari, few will even be surprised now if he wins by the widest margin since the trophy was first awarded some 70 years ago.

Fun stuff. Head on over and check it out.

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    Yeah, the show is starting now. God help me if I'm wrong. Thanks for the plug, though I'm happy to keep politics and football separate. :)

  • paul (unverified)

    It ain't a "sample", though. He contacts as many media voters as he can and uses that information to infer a decision.

    And if Kari missed it this year, he might as well hang it up. Just like lame-ass Pac-10 football fans.

    Go Blue!

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    The real question is, if Reggie goes pro and Kari doesn't have a Trojan in contention next year, will his attention wander?

    I mean, you're not going to keep winning three out of every four years!

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    Looks to me like Dwayne Jarrett might be a guy Kari can jump on the bandwagon for next year.

    In any case, Michigan athletes should be excluded from contention until their athletic department has the nad to play the games that are on the schedule next year, and not try to duck tough opponents for a cupcake like Northern Illinois. If they'd have merited a better bowl game than Oregon as a result of this act of cowardice, I'd say they should have to play the MAC champion in Boise instead.

    No Blue!

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    A receiver? Well, you never know. I will say this: beginning next year, USC goes back into the "hated" camp, from which they had been temporarily rehabilitated. I'm a Pac Ten homer (unless they're playing the Big Ten), and I was enjoying the rest of the country taking us seriously for a change. (Funny how the word "soft" is no longer the favorite adjective for the Pac Ten.) But enough is enough. SC is back, and they're dominant, and they're from, well, SoCal.

    As to the Rose Bowl? Let us hope that it will not be defiled by a Bit 12 win. Go Trojans!

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    Paul - of course it's a sample. It's not a random sample, but 209 out of 923 ballots is a sample. Sample: part of the whole.

    As for the results: I projected that Reggie Bush would get 2514 points. He got 2541. Off by 27 points out of 2500. About 1%.

    The method may be madness according to the strict rules of social science, but it seems to work.

    As for my attention wandering - there wasn't a Trojan in 2003 that contended, and I did it then too. Those who know me know that I'm a Heisman Trophy junkie. Always have been. It's the greatest award in all of sports.

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    You are good at research design but lousy at public relations. You know as well as I do when you say "sample" the journalist hears "random survey sample." Therefore, I blame you hurting statistical competency in this country. But what did I expect from a USC grad.

    In social science-ease, what I'd describe what you have is a panel of informed elites.

    Anyway, Bush deserved this so much. Let's have the real debate: is Bush, by the numbers, the best college player ever?

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