Rural Voters Turning Democratic

Jeff Alworth

Since 2000, every election has been very close and tough to read, but this year's is also volatile as well.  It is all the more so in Oregon, where Democrats appear to be less motivated than they are nationally, and Republicans less dispirited.  So into that storm of confusion, add today's NPR-sponsored poll that found rural voters--recently the bedrock of the GOP base--are now breaking Democratic.  These results come from rural voters in the 41 most-contested House districts and six states with competititve Senate Races.  (Therefore, Oregon voters weren't included.)  They are pretty astounding:

This is good news nationally, but how does it square with Oregon?  Pollsters found that most of the movement nationally was among independents and non-affiliated voters who were switching Dem.  About 25% of Oregon voters are registered as something other than Democrat or Republican, and a lot are in rural districts.  Is the mood among these voters the same as rural voters nationwide?  Are they sufficiently inspired by the scandals and corruption to cast ballots for Democrats, or does their dissatisfaction with the status quo actually drive them to the GOP?  What about Ron Saxton, a Portland lawyer--is he inspiring rural independents, or does Governor Kulongoski, the former Marine, appeal with his more populist message?

Anyone outside the Willamette Valley echo chamber have some insight?  Is this poll at all reflective of the large red tracts of rural Oregon?

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Poll findings (.pdf): survey | pollster analysis | September/October comparison numbers

  • TKrueg (unverified)
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    Driving through E. Oregon towns like Condon, Fossil, Wasco, Moro, Grass Valley, etc in the fall of 2004, I was encouraged to see Kerry/Edwards field signs (read: XXL-sized yard signs) outnumber the ones for Bush 3 to 1.

  • TKrueg (unverified)
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    Also...

    I think this underscores the importance of Howard Dean's '50-State Strategy'. If you look at races in Nebraska, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Kansas, you'll see evidence that breaking up the bedrock through simple exposure to ideas absolutely works. Going on the offensive in this case simply means you don't give anything away, nor do you take it for granted. If you believe your message and platform have merit for people of all walks of life, SPREAD THE WORD.

    I hope this election sends a message to Chuck Schumer and Evan Bayh. Get out of the way and follow Dean.

  • Gordie (unverified)
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    I think there's a fair difference between dissatisfaction with current Republican leadership and becoming a Democrat. An analogy I've used before is that when folks in Multnomah County are dissatisfied with a current Democratic leader, they tend to vote for another Democrat rather than a Republican. Same thing with many a conservative. I think that most (but not all) of the rural dissatisfaction with Republicans is not dissatisfaction with conservatism in general but the current leadership. Notice that in several rural & Southern locations in the nation, the Democrats that may topple Republicans are certainly more conservative than the average Democrat. They're adapting to the voters moreso than the voters are changing their basic beliefs.

    Here in Josephine County, there's a candidate for county commissioner (independent) who a number of folks think is/may be too liberal (we have non-partisan local elections). His runoff opponent had to drop out of the race for health reasons. There are two write-in candidates--one registered Republican and one registered Constitution Party. The Republican party here is concerned that both the independent and Republican are too liberal, so it's endorsed the Constitution party guy.

  • Garrett (unverified)
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    I think that this info makes apparent the use of Republican wedge issues to get their rural vote out. They don't have a wedge issue to make the rural voters vote against their own interests this time around.

  • Sally (unverified)
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    Saxton as big city lawyer .... OK .... but Kulongoski reduced to an essence of populist former Marine? {{Parallel Universe}} I guess. I would have taken him for a long-time big government type.

    From Medford the divide still as ever looks like Portland/Salem vs. us. It will be interesting to see the post-election breakdown on particular measures and candidates. We tend to feel like our vote doesn't count in the state anymore than Oregon's as a whole usually counts electorally vis-a-vis the presidential election.

    We're not really rural anymore. The orchards of my childhood are giving way to retirement homes, wineries and golf courses. California imports are a boom.

  • BlueNote (unverified)
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    Yes!!! People east of Gresham and south of Eugene do care about the way that the Republicans are screwing the country and mortgaging our grandchildren's future! However, Dems and progressives need to be sympathetic or at least sensitive to rural issues to avoid turning the rural voters back to the GOP. Stop making fun of farmers (see endless Saxton jokes on this blog) and be aware that median incomes in eastern Oregon are a lot lower than in the Metro area, so folks there are much more sensitive to tax increases and conparatively generous govt. salaries and benefits.

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    I think there's a fair difference between dissatisfaction with current Republican leadership and becoming a Democrat.

    Yeah, my title's a little loose linguistically (titles ain't me long suit). I meant "turning to" Democrats as opposed to turning into.

    Saxton as big city lawyer .... OK .... but Kulongoski reduced to an essence of populist former Marine? {{Parallel Universe}} I guess. I would have taken him for a long-time big government type.

    Reducing anyone to their essence is ridiculous--but it's what seems to happen in the waning days of elections. I wasn't suggesting either that these were the accurate essences or that rural voters saw them this way--just threw it out there as one of the ways you might interpret thes national findings.

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    For those of us who've grown up in Oregon we are witnessing the re-definition of the meaning of rural in Oregon. Bend is a hot economic market growing in leaps and bounds. Medford's predicted growth is 87% over the next 20 years. With those examples of growth comes a shift in the patterns of what most voters want. The hue and cry is for sports parks, excellent school buildings, proper school funding, and adequate/affordable housing for the middle class. The fossilized notions from hard core conservatives are being drowned out by Oregonians who prefer governing from the center. Voters across the state are sick to death of the dark side evidenced in slimy untruthful political ads. My best guess is the level of hypocricy in the Saxton campaign has turned even his potential supporters away. Howard Dean's 50 State stategy is finding a home in our state especially among members of the Jackson County Democratic Central Committee. Does anyone have a handle on the number of new registered Dems in the past 2 or 3 months?

  • Bill (unverified)
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    In baseball it's sometimes said "there's lttle difference between the player who bats .300 and the one who bats .310 - but that difference is huge!" There may not be many who will swing their vote - yet nevertheless - the stats quoted here indicate a huge impact on the end result.

  • Dale (unverified)
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    As a resident of a very rural and (normally) very red county I have observed some significant changes in the politcal environment over the past three years. The most significant change, I believe, comes from the change in attitude toward and support of the war in Iraq.

    About the only place that politics is a topic of conversation (occasionally) is the Elks Club. Three years ago I was one of the very few who spoke out against the war from before it began. Now, even among the die hard Republicans, I am probably with the majority. And that shift has extended beyond the war, I am hearing comments about the Republican Party in general that I certainly never heard previously. Although there is no doubt that Greg Walden will be reelected with a pretty big majority from this county I see and hear people talking about voting for him not because he's a Republican but in spite of his being one. That's a real sea change around here. I also thiink Jim Gilbertson, the Dem. candidate for the 59th district may well win this county (and I hope several others).

    The Dems have been down and silent around here for a long time but change is coming.

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    Stop making fun of farmers (see endless Saxton jokes on this blog) Surely you can tell the difference between making fun of a high-priced corporate lawyer who pretends to be a farmer and making fun of farmers?

  • Gil Johnson (unverified)
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    Ya know, as your basic bike ridin', tree-huggin' urban metrosexual dude, I really would like to see more rural and conservative voices in the Democratic party. We used to have the lovable Debs Potts and the not-so-lovable Mae Yih, and a lot more. They created a lot of headaches for liberals in the party, but at least the party held a majority of seats in the legislature.

  • LT (unverified)
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    Thanks, Gil. I agree with you. Before term limits threw them out, Terry Thompson and Mike Lehman were excellent state reps. from the coast. They didn't think like Portlanders, which was the whole point. With any luck, Jean Cowan will win this year and restore some of that common sense to the legislature.

    And as controversial as it may seem, maybe one way to attract more rural Democrats is to do something drastic about Future Pac---like either changing Future Pac into something completely different, going in a whole new direction, or at least moving the HQ somewhere out of the Portland area. Maybe we can't move the DPO office out of Portland at the moment, but I remember when that office was in Salem---and rural folks felt more comfortable visiting that office than when it was moved and they had to worry about fighting Portland traffic. Those were the days (before the party office moved) when the Democrats controlled the legislature.

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    We still have the lovable Kurt Schrader. Sorry, I can't bring myself to miss Mae Yih.

    Maybe we can't move the DPO office out of Portland at the moment, but I remember when that office was in Salem---and rural folks felt more comfortable visiting that office than when it was moved and they had to worry about fighting Portland traffic.

    While it makes sense for a lot of reasons to have the DPO office centrally located for the biggest concentration of Democrats in the state, there's something to that argument for Salem.

    <h2>I personally think of Portland as a small town but there are plenty of people out there who are intimidated by its size in comparison to what they are used to. I think a lot of Portlanders would be amazed at how many people live barely a stone's throw away but never venture into the city.</h2>

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