Measure 49: the work that we have done I think will produce some interesting demographics - I think the measure will turn on the rural vote in the Willamette Valley. If it passes, I think we ought to appropriately remember every Republican, which includes all of the R's in the Legislature. Passage of 49 should have real consequences in November of '08. If it passes, there will be a huge number of politicians scrambling to get on the "right" side of the fence.

My guess - it will pass because I cannot think of anyone who voted AGAINST 37 who will vote against 49. I've talked to more people that I can count who feel they were screwed when the voted for 37. Our dogs are under the porch; it has been fun watching Dave try to keep his under control.

50: I was contacted by a "survey" that wanted to know about how I planned to vote. This was back in July and they had a couple of questions about 49, but the real focus was on 50. Every conceivable permutation was thrown at me (I wasn't born yesterday; they were not following an survey script) to raise issues about 50. I kept saying that if Tobacco opposed it; I favored it.

If 49 passes or if 49 fails, I'm gonna have a hangover tomorrow.

49 passes and things get ugly in the courtroom. People who have lost the right to use their land as they were entitled to when they bought it go to court and cost the state millions.

50 fails because the "places a tax in the constitution" has hit home with voters. Most support the healthcare for kids, just not the way they are going about it.

I project 49 pass with around 60% of the vote and 50 fail 55-45 in favor of the No folks. When I was in Central OR this weekend, I saw a lot of Yes on 49 Signs and zero No on 49 signs, making me think it'll get substantial rural support.

I wanted not to be, but I was turned off by the pro-50 campaign. What bothered me was that the "message" was disingenuous from the beginning. Anyone who can read the text of Measure 50 could see that it was, in fact, about many things beyond providing health coverage for kids. Had the campaign been a bit better able to engage with questions about all the other uses of the money, and less stuck in the trendy "I will only say what is on my script because voters are too stupid to follow a complex idea" rut, I might have voted for it.

It feels kind of bad that I voted "no," even though I was not saying "no" to kids' healthcare with my vote. I was saying no to the cheap superficiality that seems to define our political rhetoric these days, and no to a really strange solution. I wish it had been done better, and done in a way that Oregonians would support by a landslide.

Paulie, where did you get the 50% turnout figure? Secretary of State's website says unofficial ballot returns are at 38% for the cumulative as of 11-06-2007. I'm assuming that those are the returned ballots as of last night or this morning. Unofficial returns as of 11-06

For what it's worth, I saw more than 80 ballots* deposited as I sat near the drop boxes in Pioneer Square for about 20 minutes just after lunch today. Should be lots of Yes votes, esp. on 49!

*Lots of people had a ballot in each hand, some folks had a stack, and others were more difficult to discern. This is just my best conservative estimate.

I was turned off by the extreme amount of severely uptight people over M49 and M50. We need to be more civil and calm down a bit. No one really likes others screaming at them or shaking a finger in thier face.

I turned in my ballot the very same day that I got it in the mail. While I applaud anyone that finally votes in this election, turning it in early is the best way to do it. Why torture yourself?

I believe that M49 will pass. I found it perplexing how stupid people against this measure have no clue what it will do to the state if we allow building wherever they want. Growing up in LA, I can tell you that what we have here in Oregon is a paradise compared to the concrete jungle of LA. Imagine driving for hours and hours and never seeing a single natural piece of land. No farms, just one city running into another, one strip mall after another.

I am not so certain about M50. I voted for it, not so much for the kids, though health care for kids is important, but because I like to deter smokers from smoking. Having been raised around my father who still smokes 3 packs a day, I have little sympathy for smokers unless they are actually trying to quit.

I feel sorry for those that did not vote during this election. For those that claim that this election "was not about them.", they are sorely mistaken... especially concerning M49.

Although, not scientific, Oregonlive is running a "exit" poll.

Who is DPO? I figured it was the Democratic Party of Oregon, when I checked their website it says under breaking 37% but also says that those were the figures as of the end of day 11-04.

I tried calling the Portland office, but the phones are, understandably, busy.

Do you have a link to your figures?

Thanks

Joanne,

Don't feel bad about voting No. I felt great doing it.

This has never been "about the kids". If it were, it would have been financed by a permanent tax structure, not one that is destined to become underfunded.

Better, get involved in finding a permanent way to find healthcare for the impoverished.

My wife and I voted NO on both measures, thus cancelling two BO votes. Yeah!!!!

Anonymous because the political consultant might kill me.

Measure 50 failed to engage voters in a grassroots way. I saw no lawn signs, limited use of new media, and very little field until the end. Thinking that we were going to beat Big Tobacco by running a standard media and mail campaign while being outspent 4 to 1 was questionable planning. We should have run it as a statutory initiative for 2008 and run a field campaign added to the standard stuff. I hope we won't give up on the issue. It's an important issue, and it sometimes takes more than running once to win.

Measure 49 will manage to hold onto their lead. The best thing I saw from the campaign was the black-and-white sign campaign. That cut through the clutter.

Bojack's blog has an exit poll. Would sure be interesting to have one here as well.

Multnomah County returns still not high enough at 12:30 PM

Party Central here:

The M49 election night party will be at the Kennedy School 5736 N.E. 33rd Ave. Portland, OR 97211 Starts at 7:30pm

Dropped my ballot off at Fairview Library as well. Another yes for both.

Somewhat concerned about 50 now, hadn't paid attention to the polling til today....

Pass or fail, hooray for an end to overblown rhetoric on Measures 31H & 32H!

I oppose M50 (cringe) as an unacceptable alternative to the real attempts to address health care that were supported by Kitzhaber & Westlund et alii, yet gained no traction in the Legislature.

How we as Democrats engineer passage of bills enacting our partisan agenda is as important as the successful enactment. For example, the Bush Administration's subversion of the process of legisation will be a much longer-lasting legacy than the particular reverses of democracy they have accomplished.

Measure 49 will pass. 50 will fail narrowly.

My Predictions:

M49 will pass M50 will pass

Amazing that anyone would vote to support commercial drug pushing that is out there killing several million of us every year, costing the rest of us billions to pay for the those who do smoke and end up in hospitals and nursing homes with strokes, cancer, and various forms of respiratory and vascular disease. Amazing that anyone would vote against 100 thousand children getting essential health care so that they can be recruited to become nicotine addicts! What a wonderful ethical people we are!

As of 2:30, 48% for Multnomah County.

As for 2:42, 49.3% for Clackamas County.

What do you mean when you say that GOP votes are trailing by 3%? Trailing by 3 as compared to Dem turnout, or proportionally as to their registrations?

Let's take a look at how previous elections have worked... in 2004, GOP turnout was 0.89% greater than Dem turnout. In 2002, GOP turnout was 3.27% higher than Dem turnout. So a 3% turnout advantage to Dems is very, very, very favorable.

Yes on 50! Yes on 49!

It's not too late to call friends, neighbors, or strangers...I'm posting this while calling.

Ballots can be dropped off at all Multnomah County Libraries until 8 PM, and you can check out drops for other counties here: http://maps.google.com/maps/user?uid=107567332026066402591&hl=en&gl=us

As Bill R. demonstrated, my enthusiasm for the end of overblown rhetoric is somewhat premature.

Kids will suffer, maybe die, because they don't get proper medical care and you complain about the 'campaign'?

Nice work, Jeanne. Obviously, you are not a parent. Hope not too many Oregon kids suffer and die from an easily-treatable tooth abcess.

Christ.

4 more "no" votes here (2 on M49 and 2 on M50). Motivated a few others to turn in their ballots as well. Not sure how they'll vote, but likely 6 more "no"s.

Should be interesting.

51% for clackamas county.

I also told everyone in the apartment building I manage to vote yes on 49 or I would raise their rent. Two yes votes for 49 from my wife and I. One yes on 50, one no on 50, and yeah, that pretty much cancels out. Just kidding about the rent thing, by the way.

49% for Multnomah at 4:30

any one have any clue as to how it usually shakes out... is there a post-5 oclock surge?

Nick,

It's a comparable argument to when people tell me that because I'm vegan, they are tripling their meat intake.

Or like when Hillary Clinton gins up her triangulating war on video games, I tell the teens to invite their friends over for an-all weekend for a Mortal Combat marathon. :)

"...I was turned off by the pro-50 campaign. What bothered me was that the 'message' was disingenuous from the beginning."

Nice work, Jeanne! Obviously, you are not an idiot.

The ads are now claiming that the measure would amend the State Constitution to protect the bill from the predation of unscrupulous legislators, when in fact they put it out as a Constitutional amendment because it required a simple majority to pass the bill out; i. e. because it was easiest to amend the Constitution!

There is nothing magical about the Oregon Constitution. Just like the Texas Constituion, it has been amended many many times for all sorts of everyday purposes. It is by and large just a statute.

4 more "no" votes here (2 on M49 and 2 on M50). Motivated a few others to turn in their ballots as well. Not sure how they'll vote, but likely 6 more "no"s.

Should be interesting.

Good for you anon. Since we're trading yeses and nos, I just dropped off ballots for nine of my friends/co-workers. In short, they don't support your 'no' cause.

I'll be sure to come and gloat on the conservative sites after both measures are passed. As my mother used to say, "when receiving a favor, it's always best to return it."

Festering, untreated tooth abcess. Resulting in death. It has happened. Just this year a child died this way.

Children's health care is not an American value. Children's health care is not an Oregon value.

Here's a YouTube video I whipped up

"A last-minute plea to Oregon voters to get down to your local ballot drop-off point (myself I prefer the library), and vote yes on Measure 49. Help keep Oregon livable and sustainable!"

Why not forward it to someone you know who needs to be browbeat (in a nice way) into voting yes on 49?

Dropped my ballot off at the library on Saturday. Chalk up two thumbs down for me. However, if I were a betting troll I'd have to go with both measures passing handily. Let's face it, the vast majority of voters (urban types) don't know much about Oregon land use law and your average smoker probably doesn't vote. Even with low turnout, this one should make for a happy election night for the progressive crowd.

the vast majority of voters (urban types) don't know much about Oregon land use law and your average smoker probably doesn't vote.

Ah Ha! Conservative excuses are already forming. Blame it on the electorate being either (1) uninformed, or (2) not interested enough in voting for their own self interest.

Does this mean I can blame the passage of Measure 37 on those same reasons, or were those 2004 voters more informed??

For those watching the ballot returns tonight, remember that early returns tend to lean conservative, while results trend more progressive later in the evening. That's because progressive Multnomah County's larger number of ballots take longer to tally, so by evening's end, ballots outstanding tend to be largely MultCo's.

How does one watch election returns tonight? Is there a website that offers real-time results? Or should I bring out my television?

TV is probably the way to go, but if you want to see the returns from the individual counties, try this page.

you can check live results or close to live results at katu.com

Also, the reeeely early results are completely meaningless. Just a few random and unrepresentative precincts.

Thanks, spine and 18yearoldwithanopinion. Looks like M49 is 65% for so far according to katu.

Or here for urban: Multnomah County

Clackamas County

so according to kgw reports that with all vote counted both 49 and 50 won in Multnomah county.

Here's Washington County

100% counted in multiple counties. Measure 49 will pass; Measure 50 won't:

Multnomah

Clackamas

Washington

Marion

Unless i am missing something Multnomah County has reported that at by 7PM 195,000 people have voted and their results only count 112,000 votes.

Maybe those who voted no on 50 or didn't vote at all can find a way to feel righteous because they protected the nicotine addicts and their pushers from having to pay for any health care for those brown kids and underclass riff-raff children. Truth is you will pay, not Philip Morris, in increased premiums for your health insurance when the kids of the riff raff end up in the emergency room with the health crisis that should have been resolved in a routine doctor's visit. But of course, it's really about the Constitution... These are your Oregon voters for you... scammed by corporate money every time.

Measure 50's demise is hardly surprising. After all, the tobacco industry invented modern day advertising.

Bill R: why don't you round up all of your fellow M50 supporters and establish--and, more importantly, FUND OUT OF YOUR OWN POCKETS--a nonprofit organization that will provide aid to those "brown kids and underclass riff-raff children" as you so eloquently label them.

Quit your bellyaching and put YOUR money where your mouth is.

Ok, now that 50 is dead, can we get down to brass tacks, and just outlaw tobacco in Oregon?

Yes, it can be done, and yes, it should be done. The Pro-50 folks have made it clear that smoking is horrible for kids (as well as everyone) therefore it should be banned.

Of course, there is about a snowball's chance in hell of actually occurring.

Oh, well...guess I'll have to quit on my own.

I'll second JJ's opinion. My argument for Measure 50 was that it is a tax you pay to allow the sale of a substance that really should be a Schedule II controlled substance, subject to all that means (essentially, being illegal to grow, manufacture, sell or use).

The anti-M50 argument, other than the constitution, was that it was an unreliable source of income for funding an ongoing state program. They were saying that it was wrong to support a health initiative on the backs of people who are killing themselves through smoking.

Okay, I can go along with that. So let's support children's health insurance by making tobacco illegal and levying hefty fines on anyone caught smoking it (or selling it) in Oregon. So instead of 84 cents a pack, it could be $500 for possession of a pack.

"We need to turn our attention to how to do it a better way now."

Here's a wild idea. How about expecting people to be responsible for maintaining their good health and providing coverage for themselves and the children they choose to create? It can't always work that way of course, but shouldn't that be a primary goal? I find this fixation on some magical government solution to our many health woes quite bizarre. Somehow handing over the reins to the state and collectively shoveling more cash into the fire box solves the problem.

Surely we can see to it that health care is readily available for the poor and the sick without mandating a one size fits all government run program for everybody. Come on. If one's employer doesn't offer a health plan as part of their compensation package, then purchasing at least a basic health insurance plan should rank right up there with food & shelter on the priority list, well before new cars, toys and other frivolous expenditures. Sad truth is, many people don't see it that way. Going without basic, catastrophic coverage is insane. I managed to pay for a most adequate health & dental plan a few years back on a whopping $10 an hour. Also knew some folks who earned more, had "nicer" possessions and no health plan. Must not have been too important to them, but at least the pro socialized medicine crowd can use them as a tragic statistic of the uninsured in America.

Kyle, your "wild idea" is just short of state-sanctioned euthanasia for the working poor.

It is not a "fixation on magical solutions" to expect that our government (not some occupation force's administration, but the government constituted by us to promote our own general welfare) can administer the health care industry so as to provide basic healthcare services to us without regard to our ability to provide huge profit margins for monstrous corporations.

The megacorporations that now have a stranglehold on the healthcare industry have taken a profession that fulfills the basic human need for mercy and succor when we have been wounded in our common struggle for life, and turned it into a heartless pursuit of cash flow from the well-off and healthy at the expense of common citizens with real problems. To hell with your insinuations that going without basic, catastrophic coverage is evidence of insanity or disregard for one's family welfare! It has purposefully been put out of people's financial reach in order to cater to those rich enough to overpay for healthcare.

"I assume you have insurance through an employer and that the premiums are not exhorbitant in your view relative to your income. If that is the case, you are in a minority."

Yep, just like every full time job I have ever had with the exception of the leaner times I mentioned. In that particular case I shopped around and purchased health insurance while forgoing some luxuries that a portion of our uninsured citizens appear to hold so dear. My current benefit package is the best Ive had, which is great, but nobody is giving me anything. It's part of my compensation and just as easy to put a dollar amount on as wages. Nobody is being charitable.

In my experience I do not represent a small minority. Most people I know in the middle class & up range carry some level of health insurance. A couple I can think of who are not covered (who shall remain nameless) seem to be far more concerned living under a nicer roof, driving nicer cars and owning toys.

As I said before, we should look out for the poor & the sick and I'm certainly not advocating turning anybody away. My central point was a simple one that nobody seems to want to address. Should we not take much better care of ourselves, thereby preventing a large percentage of disease in the first place? Shouldn't having at least basic health care coverage be viewed as a top priority?

My hope is that since the people have spoken and have voted NO on M50, we don't see anything like it again for a few years. If we do see it (or any other tax like it) in the next election, it only shows how we tend to abuse the referendum/initiative system. When we say NO, we mean it.

We have said NO on M50. We should not have to vote on anything like it again. Please listen to the people for once and give us something else to consider.

The "No" on Measure 50 had little to do with Measure 50. It was really a "yes" to the propaganda and lies spewed by out-of-state tobacco industry propaganda. Come on, now.

The Oregon constution has been already amended 400 HUNDRED TIMES. MANY TIMES for tax purposes. "Don't mess with the Constitution". What utter bullshit.

What's wrong with not putting hate in the Constitution? That's not what it's for.

<h2>That false parity BS is just that - BS. Employ critical thinking skills for a change.</h2>