Portland Tribune/KPTV Poll Results
The Portland Tribune and KPTV have released the results of a series of polls in the contested Democratic statewide primaries, as well as in some nonpartisan Portland races (click on table for a link to the story):
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May 14, 2008
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May 14, '08
Sam's in trouble. With all the fumbles from the Dozono campaign he should be over the top. The fact that he screwed up so much in plain sight over the bridge fiasco may have done him in. Bad timing for Sam. Good news for Portland.
May 14, '08
Check your numbers please. Fish is at 35% in the poll. The Undecided number is 46%. Thx.
May 14, '08
how does this compare to the hibbits poll vs. the SUSA poll?
it seems to me that, on the senate race anyway, it's closer to the hibbits numbers than the SUSA numbers.
9:43 a.m.
May 14, '08
The real results? Portlanders haven't tuned in yet. Clearly, not only have people not voted, but they haven't really tuned in sufficiently to be informed. 56% undecided on the City Council? 46% on the AG? And most shockingly 43% for Senate.
May 14, '08
LOL -- KPTV and the Tribune are reporting the same poll with different numbers for Seat 2. I guess that is within the media margin of error. Sheesh....
May 14, '08
I am quite surprised by how close the Secretary of State's race is! I thought Brown would be way ahead. When was this poll done? I suspect a lot of people voted over the weekend.
9:48 a.m.
May 14, '08
One more thing. Consider that nearly half the voters contacted about the Senate race were undecided. And then consider that both candidates are within spitting distance of the two-term incumbent, who is below 50%. That means that the general-election numbers are heavily tilted by anti-Smith sentiment, even before they know about the candidates. Given that both are stronger than these voters realize, it's all bad news for Smith. And a hopeful sign for the good guys.
10:00 a.m.
May 14, '08
Lots of very good candidates running against each other. I think voters are waiting for any last-minute fumbles before voting. I finally turned mine in Saturday, but a couple were real hard choices and I won't even be that disappointed if the one I voted loses to another qualified candidate. I mean come on--Kroger or MacPherson? That's like choosing between devil's food cake and ice cream!
May 14, '08
I thought Brown would be way ahead.
Looks like her habit of saying one thing and then doing another thing has finally caught up with her. I like Kate as a Senator, but her back-and-forth on election related issues makes her a less than credible Secretary of State. She's been running this campaign as if she simply deserves the office simply because she's served as Senate Majority Leader.
May 14, '08
"Sam's in trouble"
And he will be even more in trouble if he dosen't stop being so snooty and uptight in city hall along with his kool-aid buddy Randy Leonard.
And as for Novick vs. Milquetoast Merkley - Looks like some people aren't tasting the extra sugary kool-aid that Merkely spilled out using his daughter.
10:54 a.m.
May 14, '08
It's good news for Adams. He only has to win a third of the undecideds. Of course, he's up against 11 other people, so we have to push hard now.
This poll went out May 8th and 9th, which I think is before the Merkley daughter ad, as well as Novick's Kitzhaber ad.
May 14, '08
"Sam's in trouble"
Maybe I am missing something, but a large lead, plus needing only 1/3 of the remaining undecided vote to win outright seems to be a pretty good place to be in!
11:12 a.m.
May 14, '08
Does anybody know who actually did this poll? With only 300 respondents this is a pretty shakey base to draw any meangingful conclusions in tight races.
11:16 a.m.
May 14, '08
Forget the above question, I saw on the KPTV web site the poll was done by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall, Inc. Now my question is; was this a Portland only poll or state wide?
11:18 a.m.
May 14, '08
Statewide, and the sample size was 400, not 300.
11:18 a.m.
May 14, '08
I seem to be having a conversation with myself. OK I see on the Tribune page this is Portland only. Therefore ignore all those numbers for statewide races.
May 14, '08
Those number for AG are with people who are leaning in one direction. It should be noted that the actual numbers are Macpherson 26%, Kroger 22%. I think this race is going down to the wire.
11:22 a.m.
May 14, '08
John- not sure what you were reading, but the articles for the statewide races state they interviewed 400 likely voters from around the state, so they should be reasonable numbers if they had a good sample group.
May 14, '08
So why does this Trib. report have it 55-35 in the prez primary? Why the discrepancy with your numbers. http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=121064144749596700
May 14, '08
Looks like the Fish, Middaugh, Stewart race for seat two is still wide open. Fred Stewart is still a viable option for Portland. It will be interesting to see what the under votes will be in the down ballot races. With so many people decided about President, will they leave the others blank, make an informed choice or do random choice.
2:24 p.m.
May 14, '08
I'd like some certified smart, political geek to tell me how these huge undecided numbers match up with previous elections. They seem extremely high to me, but then I don't have much of a head for numbers.
May 14, '08
Stephen Kafoury-
I dont know how other years undecided numbers were but the reason why statewide and local races have high numbers is simple. This election cycle because Oregon will have a voice in the presidental primary has become engulfed by the presidental race. Lots of people are tuning in, I was surpised today at my high school when each kid in one of my survey classes (not advanced class) had a logical reason based on fact of why they are supporting Obama or Clinton. It made me happy that the 20 kids in that room were all democrats.
May 14, '08
If you go to:
http://www.kptv.com/politics/16208257/detail.html
you will get a much better detale of the numbers.
May 14, '08
If you go to:
http://www.kptv.com/politics/16208257/detail.html
you will get a much better detail of the numbers.
May 14, '08
Mr. Kafoury, overall, the large number of undecideds seems about right, though the Presidential election may be inflating it a bit. With vote by mail, you generally see highly informed voters (and highly partisan voters) vote early in the voting window, and everyone else waiting until election day. For some elections, it can be close to half of the electorate voting on the last day to turn in ballots. Given this dynamic of when people turn in their ballots, it makes sense that most people do not really start to inform themselves about the election (and make up their minds about it) until almost the end of the voting window. That said, I suspect that the Presidential Primary is inflating the numbers because it is bringing in more new voters who are enthusiastic about their choice for President, but are having more trouble deciding on the down ballot races.
10:16 a.m.
May 15, '08
stephen I also can't give you comparative numbers, but my intuition is that a significant number of the undecideds in the senate are undecided but not uninformed.
we'd need recognition numbers to confirm or disconfirm this.
for the down ballot races, these high numbers don't surprise me at all.
(This is one of the big reasons I opposed Kiesling's ballot reform--in a year with one of the hardest fought presidential contests in history and a very hard fought senate contest, we still have these high undecided numbers. on that basis, we're going to determine the only two candidate in November? The majority of voters just aren't tuned in during a May primary.)
May 17, '08
Just got called for one of those mechanised polls, "for this answer, press one". Mixed in with the candidate questions were demographic questions--if you are white, press 1, if you are a woman press one, an age group question, etc.
At the start, "this is a 3 minute poll on the presidential race, but if you don't have time to complete it, please hang up now".
Kind of odd "if the primary were held today, would you vote for..." given that this is Oregon.
After presidential, there was US Senate, with Goberman and Loera as the first 2 candidates listed.
Also had AG and Sec. of State.
At the end, the last question was "if you have already returned your ballot, press one now".
Would have been interesting to know whose poll it was.