Here We Go

Jeff Alworth

The polls just closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.  Now the fun begins.  I'm starting to see exit poll results appear at various sites, but so far nothing official.  (And anyway, we all remember how wrong exits were in 2004.)   Let me know if you're seeing results, exit polls, or something interesting happening in Oregon.  Or anything you think is worthwhile.  I'll try to keep on top of it and post early updates here. 

Discuss.

[Update, 3:08 pm.  CNN alludes to their exits.  CBS does, too, in a little more depth.]

[Update, 3:27 pm.  No terrorist attacks, invasions of Iran, or other assorted horrific "game-changers" to report.]

[Update, 3:40 pm.  Looks like the NYT has the most updated numbers as they come in.  Very early results in Indiana and Kentucky.  NBC has released their exits.]

[Update, 3:558pm.  With twp minutes until another batch of states close, here's an interesting factoid.  Indiana's Vigo county has predicted the presidential winner every year except two since 1892.  With 80% of precincts reporting, Obama is leading 57%-42%.  Indiana is currently tied--and Gary just closed.]

[Update, 4:45 pm.  Obama's huge early lead in Florida (57%-43%, 3% reporting) is offset by McCain's lead in Virginia (57%-42%, 3% reporting).  In other words, early results are brutal.  With 21% counted in Indiana, though, Obama's hanging in there, trailing by 3%--but still no results in Lake County, with Gary.  In Georgia, blacks made up 30% of the electorate as compared to 25% in '04.]

[Update, 5:06 pm.  NBC called Pennsylvania for Obama.  There's no results available, though--it's all from exits.  If they're right, it's likely a done deal.  McCain has precious few other routes to win, unless we grossly misunderstand the map.  Chuck Todd confirms, putting his weight behind the call.]

[Updade, 5:43 pm.  Recalling that the only route McCain had to win was through PA and NH, we have very good news.  New Hampshire is solid Obama.  All the nets call Pennsylvania.  That means Obama wins the White House if he picks up one of these: Florida (Obama 52%-47%, 37% reporting), North Carolina (Obama: 55%-45%, 10% reporting), or Virginia (McCain 54%-45%, 41% reporting).  Or if he picks up Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.  Or ... well anyway, looking good.]

[Update, 7:03 pm.  Everyone's calling it for Obama.  He's finally leading in VA.  Has leads in FL and NC.  Lead in Ohio is modest with 30% reporting.  If this all pans out--and I won't breathe easily until we officially get one of the bigs.  But that said, it looks like the range of victory is somewhere in the 311-364 range.]

By Jeff Alworth Nov. 04, 2008