M66/M67 Turnout in Multnomah by Party

Paul Gronke

As of 10:45 AM this morning

Democrats Registered:        235583
Democratic Ballots:              83381
Percent Turnout:                  35.3%

Republican Registered:       69280
Republican Ballots:             27866
Percent Turnout:                 40.2%

NAV Registered:                  84932
NAV Ballots:                        20164
Turnout:                              23.7%

Other Registered:                22440
Other Ballots:                       5501
Turnout:                               24.5%

Ok by popular demand ... looks like we may get to 60% in the county.

Untitled Image MC Untitled Image state

  • (Show?)

    Not good. Not good at all.

  • Jason (unverified)

    My Final Tally Prediction:

    165,000 Yes 63,000 No

  • (Show?)

    Big push by Republicans underway. Not good, not good at all is an understatement.

  • geoffludt (unverified)

    Nah, don't worry about the Republicans, there's nothing to see here ... just go back to writing your little blog entry and we'll pick up where we left off after the election, ok?

  • Gil Johnson (unverified)

    Let's get that Dem turnout up above 50%.

    BTW, lazy dude that I am, I have yet to turn in my ballot and my business is half a mile from the Mult. Co. elections division.

  • Darth Spadea (unverified)

    Is there any trend info on Mult. turnout? I would assume that people there might be more comfortable holding on to their ballots knowing there are plenty of convenient drop off locations - whereas people in outlying areas need to get them in the mail.

    I know this would effect both sides in Mult. but I am also assuming a younger demo for Democrats.

  • Aaron Rab (unverified)

    That is a little shocking with the party turnout. As I recall, in comparable special elections (and most elections generally), there is no particular partisan advantage to vote by mail elections.

  • Elizabeth (unverified)

    Both members of my household are lifelong D's who have not yet voted. We will vote no on both measures. We know others who fit this description. Be careful about drawing conclusions based strictly on turnout data.

  • Darth Spadea (unverified)

    Good point Elizabeth. If the "Vote NO" campaign is able to peel off 5% more Democrats than the "Vote Yes" campaign is able to peel from Republicans - then this could be a race.

    BTW, my children thank you for your NO vote to help protect their economic future.

  • Elizabeth (unverified)


    Your last sentence is a good example of why we and others periodically consider becoming NAV's and are increasingly reluctant to volunteer, donate or otherwise continue to be active in the party we grew up with.

    A more useful and rational response would perhaps have been to inquire as to the basis of our decision on how to vote.

  • Sir Humphrey Appleby (unverified)


  • Darth Spadea (unverified)

    Elizabeth, are you serious? The entire YES campaign has been hyped around "helping kids". My opposition to the measures is directly related to wanting to have an economically healthy state for my kids.

    I already have a fantastic job and career security. I will not be impacted by Measure 66. It's about future prosperity for me.

    My thank you was sincere.

  • Galen (unverified)

    I have spoken to a lot of sensible Dems who work hard and are voting no out of principle.

  • Elizabeth (unverified)


    It appears that I mistook your sincerity for sarcasm, for which I apologize.


    So do I.

  • (Show?)

    A few comments on above.

    Darth, yes there is trend information on MultCo turnout. I didn't want to pollute the blog with another posting, but my previous two are shown below. I'll update with the most up to date figures I can get on Saturday morning.

    Aaron: as to party trends, I did a paper on this a number of years ago. There is no evidence of party differences in how early ballots are turned in EXCEPT in the special tax contests. At least that is what I found in the past--self identified Republicans turned in their ballots more quickly that Democrats.

    BUT that is not the same thing as saying there is a "partisan advantage." Democrats may simply hold their ballots later because they are taking longer to make up their minds. Like Jeff, though, I think that this may not be bad news, but it certainly isn't good news.

  • Darth Spadea (unverified)

    Paul, thank you for your response. I had a feeling that Republicans would be more likely get them in right away. Voting NO on new taxes is pretty comfortable for them and it doesn't implement "something new" that would make them consider the angles.

    It makes sense that Dems tend to consider longer. Even though this YES campaign is ideologically crafted to appeal to them, they still want to be sure before pulling the trigger on a new tax.

  • Bob Soper (unverified)

    Just because you post to a Democratic blog doesn't mean you're a Democrat. If this modest, targeted tax increase on big business & the wealthy (both of whom have enjoyed an ever-dwindling share of the tax burden in Oregon) WHICH was passed by our DEMOCRATIC legislature, senate & governor in order to keep state services functioning & keep low-income people on the Oregon Health Plan from losing their coverage & keep tuition at community colleges & the state university system from exploding, etc etc... if this is repugnant to you for ideological reasons, I would submit that you are in fact a (possibly paid) right-wing anti-tax blogger who might feel more at home at RedState. Hell-LO? One of the CORE PRINCIPLES of the Democratic Party is that of PROGRESSIVE TAXATION.

  • Tim McCafferty (unverified)

    Onward Marching Movement!!

    The have the money, the media, the lobbyist!

    We have the community knocking on their neighbor's door, not a greed millionaire from out of state, not a bottom line corporation, YOUR NEIGHBOR!

    Si, Se puede! Yes We Can!

    Happy Thoughts Neighbor! Tim McCafferty

  • Ricky (unverified)


    keep tuition at community colleges & the state university system from exploding

    I remember the outrage when PSU switched to dispersing financial aid through Bancorp's OneCard.

    Progressives were complaining and protesting about a less than 1% fee, basically far less than $10 per student. Lots of energy and protest over miniscule fees charged.

    I remember asking students, "Why are you protesting the PSU OneCard few dollar fees for your financial aid, when PSU is raising tuition on an average of 10% per year costing you additional thousands of dollars in loan or out of pocket payments?"

    During that year, 2004 - PSU had raised tuition 11%.

    Voting YES on 66 & 67 will not keep tuition from exploding. State universities and colleges have increased costs of tuition more than double the rate of inflation, historically ranging from 5% to a whopping 13% per year the past decade alone.

    Historically, Oregon colleges have increased tuition at more than double the rate of yearly inflation since 1978.

    Additional fees related to education increase up to 300%, but they are not noticed as much since smaller in foundation. Although there are some caps on maximum fees per term.

    I'm simply pointing out the facts. I'm too jaded to think I can change anyone's minds on where we are headed as a state.

    Meanwhile the governor and state legislature has for years at a time imposed faculty salary increase freezes on professors time and time again. Wage increases for staff at state colleges have lagged behind inflation for years.

    The measures passing will do nothing to stem the costs of higher education. Nor will they stop professors leaving and going elsewhere.

  • Bob Soper (unverified)

    Ricky, Higher education is paid for out of the general fund. While the passage of 66 & 67 doesn't guarantee that tuition won't continue to climb, failure of the measures certainly DOES guarantee drastic tuition increases in order to offset reduced support from the state. Thanks to state revenue shortfalls in California, the UC Board of Regents just jacked tuition 32% a few weeks ago. This is after salary freezes for professors, unpaid furloughs, department closures, etc.

    Tim McCafferty: Thanks for knocking on those doors! It is unbelievable how lazy some of my friends are... some of them don't even know what the ballot measures are about. I keep bugging them...


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