Punditology: what's our conventional wisdom?

Kari Chisholm

Well, it's the day before Election Day. And, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 216 folks who participated in the 2010 Oregon Primary Punditology Challenge. Our participants include journalists, lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, elected officials, and a whole lot of political junkies.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (If your favored candidate is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work today, and prove us all wrong!)

Governor: 97% of us believe that John Kitzhaber is going to win - and 72% of think he'll win by more than 20%. 91% believe that Chris Dudley is going to win - but 79% believe he'll win by less than 20%. 84% of us think Bill Sizemore will flop - with less than 10% of the vote.

In the race for Treasurer, it's 92% for Ted Wheeler. For State Superintendant, 90% think it's Susan Castillo.

Congress: In the 1st, it's 99% for David Wu and 73% for Rob Cornilles. It's 69% for Art Robinson in the 4th, and 97% for Scott Bruun in the 5th.

Metro: 73% think Bob Stacey will either win or make the top two. 63% think Rex Burkholder will either win or make the top two. 58% think Tom Hughes will eithe win or make the top two. Among the six possible outcomes, 38% of you predict a Stacey/Burkholder runoff - but 31% say it's Stacey/Hughes and 25% say it's Burkholder/Hughes. In short, it's anybody's guess. In Metro 1, 67% believe Duke Shepard will lead the balloting.

In Multnomah County, 85% of us agree that Karol Collymore will either win or make the run-off. After that? It's anybody's guess. 30% think Chuck Currie is in the top two. 22% call it for Tom Markgraf. 20% for Gary Hansen. 17% for Loretta Smith. And 6% each for Maria Rubio and Paul Van Orden. The most common pairing? 24% called it Collymore/Currie.

In the Portland City Council 3 race, 55% think it'll be a run-off between Dan Saltzman and Jesse Cornett, while 33% think Saltzman wins outright.

In Washington County, 35% think Dick Schouten will win outright over Andy Duyck, while 54% think it'll be a Schouten/Duyck runoff. The race for WashCo 4 is a toss-up with 42% calling it for Greg Mecklem and 41% calling it for Bob Terry.

In Yamhill County, the race between incumbent commissioner Mary Stern is a slight favorite over right-wing lunatic fringe candidate Mary Starrett. 56% picked Stern. In Lane County, 43% think disgraced Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken wins or leads, while 31% think former DPLC chair Pat Riggs-Henson will win or lead. In the Deschutes County DA race, 81% think incumbent Mike Dugan will be re-elected.

For the State Senate, in the SD-15 Democratic primary, Chuck Riley is a 99% sure thing. But in the SD-19 Republican primary, Steve Griffith is a slight favorite over Mary Kremer, 56-43%.

For the State House, we've got strong agreement that the two incumbent Republicans will win their primaries: Bob Jenson, 85%; Greg Smith, 73%. In the HD-51 GOP primary, it's close - Patrick Sheehan over John Swanson, 56 to 43%. In the three-way HD-37 Democratic primary, 73% of us believe Will Rasmussen will win out.

In less than 36 hours, we'll find out just how right - or wrong - we all are. Check out the full details here.

By Kari Chisholm May 17, 2010