Quick Hits on Election Eve

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Here's what's happening:

It is simply implausible that Mr. Huffman had enough “personal funds” to loan $1.35 million to Respondent. Consequently, some or all of the $1.35 million in cash loans likely originated from a source other than Mr. Huffiman’s ‘personal funds.’ As a result, Respondent likely accepted – and the actual source of the loans likely made – an illegal contribution in excess of the $2,400 per-election limit.

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    Apparently Tim Hibbitts didn't want to be the outlier this election cycle so he reworked his numbers, or possibly his likely voter screen. I happen to think the SUSA poll with the cell phone only households may be the most accurate, as PEW is now saying possibly 1 in 4 households are cell only, and they strongly favor Dem candidates.

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    Re: the M74 complaints, that will be a difficult charge to sustain.

    First, the law doesn't apply to an elected sheriff, who is free to campaign for or against anyone or anything - though he cannot direct public employees to do likewise.

    But even public employees and bodies can provide "information" about a measure and its effect, as long as it does nto advocate for or against it.

    I received a slick campaign mailer from the MultCo library explaining the effects if the local library measure isn't approved.

    Did it say explicity, "Vote Yes on 26-114?" Nope. But the implicit message was clear and paid for with public funds.

    Re: Election Eve.... while Oregon will remain a decidedly Blue state after Tuesday, at least we will bring an end to the reign of Nancy Pelosi and hopefully, Harry Reid.

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    I'm going with the 7 point Kitz lead, cells included. I'm glad this is finally being fixed -- gives a false, conservative impression polling only landlines these days. But, this statistical situation sure makes for a great momentum turner!

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    Well if tonights Gallup poll is correct it's going to be an unprecedented red tide across the good old USA- so consultants not to worry- by the time it gets to the West Coast even 45% will look respectable...

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    If the race were close and two polls came up within the margin of error, you wouldn't be surprised to see them flip by three points.

    What I read into this is what Kari does: it's WAY too close to be comfortable. I've watched polls long enough that I know people tend to believe the bias most advantageous to their position--so of course we like the looks of the SurveyUSA poll.

    Don't buy it. If you haven't voted, by all means get on the stick.

    The SOS's office says my ballot was received 10/27. Cool.

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      Maybe I am overestimating with thinking Kitz will win by seven or more points but underestimating the impact of this mistake in the surveys would be unwise. I think it guarantees him a win when you include cell phone data. Don't get comfortable, I agree (who ever is comfortable in elections?) but don't lose that momentum either.

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    It was tough wading through the phalanx of New Black Panther thugs, but I voted.


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