Filing Day 2012: The Big Board, Oregon Senate

Kari Chisholm

Here's the Big Board for State Senate races. (House races are here.)

There are 16 Senate seats in 2012: the 15 that would normally be up, plus SD-17 - where Sen. Elizabeth Steiner Hayward was appointed to fill the seat previously held by Suzanne Bonamici. The good folks of SD-17 might be forgiven for thinking that Senators serve two-year terms - as Bonamici was up in 2010 and in 2008, after being appointed after Brad Avakian left mid-term. From 2006 to 2014, SD-17 voters will have voted five times for a seat that has a four-year term!

I'll be updating throughout the day (though if you see an update I don't have, be sure to post it in the comments!)

BREAKING NEWS, 11:58 a.m.: This hasn't shown up in any filings yet, but the O's Jeff Mapes reports that Sen. Jason Atkinson will retire, and ask Rep. Wally Hicks to run for the Senate. Wow. Update, 9:22 p.m. See below. Hicks didn't file for the Senate.

BREAKING NEWS, 12:07 p.m.: Former state Rep. Tim Knopp just filed to run against Sen. Chris Telfer. This would be a huge showdown if it materializes. We'll know by 5 p.m. Update, 9:22 p.m. Oh yeah, it's on. Barnburner alert.

As of Tuesday 9:22 p.m. (This appears to be final.)

Democratic open seats

The big one, of course, is the seat vacated by Sen. Joanne Verger. The SD-5 race features a rematch of the HD-9 race in 2010 - with Speaker Arnie Roblan against oral surgeon Scott Roberts. Last cycle, Roblan won with 52.8% of the vote. (In the other half of the Senate district, Rep. Jean Cowan won with 58% of the vote - so that bodes well, though I haven't studied the impact of redistricting yet.)

5	DEM	Arnie Roblan	Incumbent: Sen. Joanne Verger
5	GOP	Scott Roberts

Republican open seats

SD-29 was vacated by Sen. David Nelson (R-Pendleton). In an unusual occurence, neither Rep. Greg Smith nor Rep. Bob Jenson are seeking to move up. Both of these two candidates are raising meaningful amounts of campaign cash (though Featherstone's is limited to a single loan of $25,000 from herself.) Stay tuned.

Update, 5:05 p.m.: As noted above, Sen. Jason Atkinson (R-Central Point) has retired from the Senate. Jim Diefenderfer, a Democrat, has now filed. Baertschiger had been organizing a primary challenge. Rumors abound that Rep. Wally Hicks will run (and another Republican has filed for his seat), but no filing has appeared yet. Update, 9:22 p.m.: Nope, Rep. Hicks didn't file for the Senate. That means Baertschiger has a clean path to the nomination.

2	GOP	Herman Baertschiger Jr	Incumbent: Sen. Jason Atkinson
2	DEM	Jim Diefenderfer	Incumbent: Sen. Jason Atkinson
29	GOP	Bill Hansell	Incumbent: Sen. David Nelson
29	GOP	Maryl Graybeal Featherstone	Incumbent: Sen. David Nelson

Democrats with Republican challengers

The Republicans would like to think they can challenge Sen. Laurie Monnes Anderson. But in 2008, she won with 59% of the vote. Unless Scott Hansen discovers a giant bankroll, I don't see a tough challenge in 2012.

There's just not a lot of room here for the Republicans to move.

14	DEM	Sen. Mark Hass
14	GOP	Gary Coe
17	DEM	Sen. Elizabeth Steiner Hayward
17	GOP	John Verbeek
21	DEM	Sen. Diane Rosenbaum
21	GOP	Cliff Hutchison
25	DEM	Sen. Laurie Monnes Anderson
25	GOP	Scott Hansen

Republicans with Democratic challengers

By the same token, I'm not seeing a lot of possibility here either. That is, unless the accusations leveled against Sen. Boquist by his former business partners take on increased visibility.

1	GOP	Sen. Jeff Kruse
1	DEM	Eldon Rollins
9	GOP	Sen. Fred Girod
9	DEM	Steve Frank
12	GOP	Sen. Brian J Boquist
12	DEM	Annette Frank

Republicans with primary challengers

There are no Democratic Senators facing primary challengers.

On the Republican side, I'm not quite sure what to make of either of these primary challenges. In SD-2, rancher Herman Baertschiger has loaned himself $10,000 to run against Sen. Jason Atkinson, but hasn't raised much else. In SD-28, farmer Karl Scronce has raised around $5,000 in small donations in his challenge to Sen. Doug Whitsett.

As noted above, there's breaking news in the SD-2 and SD-27 races. (I've now moved SD-2 up to Republican open seats.)

Update, 4:20 p.m.: There's now a Democrat, Geri Hauser, in the race for SD-27. If the Knopp/Telfer race turns into a nasty, drawn-out, bloodbath, I suppose it's possible the Democrats could steal one here.

27	GOP	Sen. Chris Telfer
27	GOP	Tim Knopp
27	DEM	Geri Hauser
28	GOP	Sen. Douglas K Whitsett
28	GOP	Karl Scronce

Incumbents without challengers

No real surprises here. A bunch of safe incumbents.

18	DEM	Sen. Ginny Burdick
22	DEM	Sen. Chip Shields
23	DEM	Sen. Jackie Dingfelder
30	GOP	Sen. Ted Ferrioli

So, adding it all up, and it's a whole lot of, well, nothing. All the attention will be focused on SD-5. If the Republicans manage to pull off a miracle and defeat Speaker Roblan, we'll be looking at 15-15 in the Senate.

Anything I've missed? Let's hear it in the comments.

By Kari Chisholm March 06, 2012