Filing Day 2012: The Big Board, Oregon Senate

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Here's the Big Board for State Senate races. (House races are here.)

There are 16 Senate seats in 2012: the 15 that would normally be up, plus SD-17 - where Sen. Elizabeth Steiner Hayward was appointed to fill the seat previously held by Suzanne Bonamici. The good folks of SD-17 might be forgiven for thinking that Senators serve two-year terms - as Bonamici was up in 2010 and in 2008, after being appointed after Brad Avakian left mid-term. From 2006 to 2014, SD-17 voters will have voted five times for a seat that has a four-year term!

I'll be updating throughout the day (though if you see an update I don't have, be sure to post it in the comments!)

BREAKING NEWS, 11:58 a.m.: This hasn't shown up in any filings yet, but the O's Jeff Mapes reports that Sen. Jason Atkinson will retire, and ask Rep. Wally Hicks to run for the Senate. Wow. Update, 9:22 p.m. See below. Hicks didn't file for the Senate.

BREAKING NEWS, 12:07 p.m.: Former state Rep. Tim Knopp just filed to run against Sen. Chris Telfer. This would be a huge showdown if it materializes. We'll know by 5 p.m. Update, 9:22 p.m. Oh yeah, it's on. Barnburner alert.

As of Tuesday 9:22 p.m. (This appears to be final.)

Democratic open seats

The big one, of course, is the seat vacated by Sen. Joanne Verger. The SD-5 race features a rematch of the HD-9 race in 2010 - with Speaker Arnie Roblan against oral surgeon Scott Roberts. Last cycle, Roblan won with 52.8% of the vote. (In the other half of the Senate district, Rep. Jean Cowan won with 58% of the vote - so that bodes well, though I haven't studied the impact of redistricting yet.)

5DEMArnie RoblanIncumbent: Sen. Joanne Verger
5GOPScott Roberts 

Republican open seats

SD-29 was vacated by Sen. David Nelson (R-Pendleton). In an unusual occurence, neither Rep. Greg Smith nor Rep. Bob Jenson are seeking to move up. Both of these two candidates are raising meaningful amounts of campaign cash (though Featherstone's is limited to a single loan of $25,000 from herself.) Stay tuned.

Update, 5:05 p.m.: As noted above, Sen. Jason Atkinson (R-Central Point) has retired from the Senate. Jim Diefenderfer, a Democrat, has now filed. Baertschiger had been organizing a primary challenge. Rumors abound that Rep. Wally Hicks will run (and another Republican has filed for his seat), but no filing has appeared yet. Update, 9:22 p.m.: Nope, Rep. Hicks didn't file for the Senate. That means Baertschiger has a clean path to the nomination.

2GOPHerman Baertschiger JrIncumbent: Sen. Jason Atkinson
2DEMJim DiefenderferIncumbent: Sen. Jason Atkinson
29GOPBill HansellIncumbent: Sen. David Nelson
29GOPMaryl Graybeal FeatherstoneIncumbent: Sen. David Nelson

Democrats with Republican challengers

The Republicans would like to think they can challenge Sen. Laurie Monnes Anderson. But in 2008, she won with 59% of the vote. Unless Scott Hansen discovers a giant bankroll, I don't see a tough challenge in 2012.

There's just not a lot of room here for the Republicans to move.

14DEMSen. Mark Hass 
14GOPGary Coe 
17DEMSen. Elizabeth Steiner Hayward 
17GOPJohn Verbeek 
21DEMSen. Diane Rosenbaum 
21GOPCliff Hutchison 
25DEMSen. Laurie Monnes Anderson 
25GOPScott Hansen 

Republicans with Democratic challengers

By the same token, I'm not seeing a lot of possibility here either. That is, unless the accusations leveled against Sen. Boquist by his former business partners take on increased visibility.

1GOPSen. Jeff Kruse 
1DEMEldon Rollins 
9GOPSen. Fred Girod 
9DEMSteve Frank 
12GOPSen. Brian J Boquist 
12DEMAnnette Frank 

Republicans with primary challengers

There are no Democratic Senators facing primary challengers.

On the Republican side, I'm not quite sure what to make of either of these primary challenges. In SD-2, rancher Herman Baertschiger has loaned himself $10,000 to run against Sen. Jason Atkinson, but hasn't raised much else. In SD-28, farmer Karl Scronce has raised around $5,000 in small donations in his challenge to Sen. Doug Whitsett.

As noted above, there's breaking news in the SD-2 and SD-27 races. (I've now moved SD-2 up to Republican open seats.)

Update, 4:20 p.m.: There's now a Democrat, Geri Hauser, in the race for SD-27. If the Knopp/Telfer race turns into a nasty, drawn-out, bloodbath, I suppose it's possible the Democrats could steal one here.

27GOPSen. Chris Telfer 
27GOPTim Knopp 
27DEMGeri Hauser 
28GOPSen. Douglas K Whitsett 
28GOPKarl Scronce 

Incumbents without challengers

No real surprises here. A bunch of safe incumbents.

18DEMSen. Ginny Burdick 
22DEMSen. Chip Shields 
23DEMSen. Jackie Dingfelder 
30GOPSen. Ted Ferrioli 

So, adding it all up, and it's a whole lot of, well, nothing. All the attention will be focused on SD-5. If the Republicans manage to pull off a miracle and defeat Speaker Roblan, we'll be looking at 15-15 in the Senate.

Anything I've missed? Let's hear it in the comments.

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