British Election ExtravaganzaBrian Wagner

Well, Britain isn't exactly Oregon's largest trading partner internationally--in fact, it has as much in common with Oregon as Portland does with John Day. But hell, if Kim Jong-Il can convince himself that he scores a hole-in-one every time he golfs (I'm sure Bandon Dunes would love him), I can stretch the connection to bring a little bit of tea and crumpets to Oregon.

With the General Election tomorrow, turnout in many constituencies looks to challenge American turnout for dismality (if that isn't a word, it is now). It has become clear now that the surge in popularity the Conservative Party has enjoyed in recent months does not represent a serious challenge to Labour's hold on Parliament. While Labour's mammoth majority will erode to some degree, we will most assuredly be seeing 4-5 more years of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown (vote Blair, get Brown, seems to be the justification of many Labourites).

That is not to say absoutely nothing is happening. Charles Kennedy and the Liberal Dems have made a strong showing as third party challengers, and may pick up a few protest seats. But ultimately the tug of war is between Labour and Conservatives.

The Iraq war, while a huge credibility issue for Labour, has been muted in part by the fact that only 10% of voters are still seriously angry, and also by the fact that only the Lib Dems actually opposed the war. Immigration and the EU are also big issues, and the Conservatives have done a strong job in stirring up mild xenophobia by targeting immigrants and gypsies as causes of British poverty and unemployment. But this sort of "dog whistle" politics--so-called because only certain types of people pay attention to the call--only can pick up so many votes.

The vote itself is stacked for Labour due to the urban-focused voting system that prioritizes seats in those areas, and also due to the winner-take-all elections, where it won't matter if the Lib Dems get 24% of the vote if they only come out with a plurality in a few seats.

Tony Blair himself may be the most unpopular clear winner a Western country has seen in awhile--no one trusts him anymore. On a recent episode of Question Time, he was being so mercilessly grilled by the audience that any TV viewer could see the sweat dripping from his brow. He has also been beseiged by questions as to whether he will, halfway through his third term, hand the reins over to Chancellor Gordon Brown and resign, which Brown hinted at previously. Blair has ineffectually addressed this question, and while Brown continues to remain popular with Britons, Blair is heading toward a potentially lame duck term as far as his personal prestige is concerned. Brown and Blair don't get along well, despite a hilarious TV ad filmed by The English Patient's Anthony Minghella where they sit around and supposedly have a "normal" conversation about Britain that looks painfully posed. Brown is clearly the "Labour" that many voters are casting their cynical support behind.

The Conservatives have been hobbled yet again by a leader, Michael Howard, with a limited appeal. He comes across as being too strident on issues like immigration that alienate moderate Conservatives (which Britain has many of), and lacks the charisma of Blair or even Brown. The fact that he has a Darth Vaderesque appeal doesn't help, nor does the fact that he is occasionally compared to Jose Mourinho, the famously volatile manager of the Chelsea football team. He's fought the good fight, but like Mark Latham, the former head of the Australian Labour Party, his early surges in the poll will not translate into victory on election day.

More to come if people want to talk about the other side of the pond.

May 4, 2005 | Brian Wagner | Comments (4 so far) Permalink: British Election Extravaganza

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