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Beth Heckert is the county's first female district attorney. She defeated Rob Patridge, a three term state representative who served as majority whip for the GOP in the Legislature and served on the Medford City Council. Patridge, currently serving as district director for U.S Rep Greg Walden came in far behind Heckert who had a commanding lead in the race with 55% at 10:15 pm last night.
Patridge was endorsed by Walden, numerous current legislators, Medford City Council members, Jackson County commissioners and Jackson County Sheriff Mike Winters and the Medford Mail Tribune editorial staff.
In this election, a career politician with little prosecutorial experience was soundly defeated. Beth Heckert's extensive trial court and administrative experience as Chief Deputy District Attorney won the day. In a column a few months back I wrote that Patridge was an opportunistic candidate seeking another "job hop" to return to Salem. For now, it seems Patridge will continue to serve as Walden's distict director.
Kudos to the Heckert campaign team for running a great campaign!
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There will be plenty of time for analysis and recriminations, both deserved and undeserved. For now, some of my initial reactions:
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The election result that will likely have the biggest impact long-term is Jeff Reardon crushing Rep. Mike Schaufler. Notice is served: Democrats who actively work to undermine the will of Democratic voters won't survive when credible challengers are offered in a primary. It helped that Schaufler has personal challenges - misuse of campaign funds, allegations of sexual assault - but the campaign against him was largely about policy.
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Well, it's Charlie Hales and Jefferson Smith in the runoff for Portland Mayor. I was, as you know, supporting Eileen Brady. Her campaign was an effective one, but the onslaught from the media was unrelenting. Personally, my biggest disappointment was the non-coverage of Randy Leonard's statement that Charlie Hales was a "showboater" who claimed credit for work that Randy did. In any other town, in any other race, a sitting city commissioner blasting a candidate for mayor in that way would have actually been news - probably front page. At the Oregonian? Nothing. (And let's not even talk about the minimalist coverage given to Hales busted lying in a TV ad.) If you're supporting Jefferson Smith, get ready. The media will be turning its not-exactly-unbiased attention to him next.
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Wow. Those SurveyUSA poll numbers in the Attorney General race were spot on. Congrats to Ellen Rosenblum, Oregon's next Attorney General - and our first woman in the job! Her win is a marked shift from 2008, when the politically-connected but totally-unknown prosecutor defeated the candidate with political experience and Oregon roots. There were race-specific factors, but it seems to me that Oregon Democrats may be less interested in a prosecutor-type for the top post at the Department of Justice.
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There's a shocker in Clackamas County. A full three-quarters of political insiders thought Dave Hunt would make the runoff for the Chair race, and 11% thought he'd win it outright. Instead, he placed fourth - though admittedly in the closest four-way race I've ever seen: Ludlow 28%, Lehan 27%, Savas 24%, Hunt 20%.
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Amanda Fritz vs. Mary Nolan was too-close-to-call heading into election day, and it's going to stay that way. Just a couple hundred votes separate them heading into the general election. This has to be bad news for Amanda Fritz, unless she's able to keep pumping personal cash into the race.
That's just a few highlights. What did you see, hear, or experience on election night? What surprised you?
Election results are here.
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At 8 p.m., the polls will close. Use this space to discuss the election results.
To keep things up to date, here's a few live Twitter feeds. Up top, the BlueOregon "election night" feed of media sources. Then, all posts from folks talking election results with the #ORelection and #ORpol hashtags. And finally, your BlueOregon contributors on Twitter.
Use this space to discuss anything related to today's election.
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At long last, it is finally Election Day. And, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 189 folks who participated in the 2012 Oregon Primary Punditology Challenge. Our participants include journalists, lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, elected officials, and a whole lot of political junkies and activists.
An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favored candidate is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work, and prove us all wrong!)
Also, note that these percentages say nothing about the expected vote totals. If 100% of us think that a candidate is going to win 51% to 49%, the number you'll see here will be 100%.
To the predictions!
First, there's no surprise in the Presidential. 98% think Mitt Romney wins it, and 90% of us think he'll get over 50% of the vote. 74% think Ron Paul places second. And 53% think Rick Santorum comes in third behind Romney and Paul. (And speaking of federal races, 80% think Fred Thompson will beat Karen Bowerman for the right to challenge Congressman Kurt Schrader.)
Second, the Attorney General race. 56% of you think that Ellen Rosenblum will defeat Dwight Holton. In Punditology terms, that's pretty much a toss-up. (Keep in mind that in 2010, 97% of us thought John Kitzhaber would win - and that outcome required 48 hours of vote-counting to settle.)
Third, the Mayor's race:
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The most common single outcome choice was Hales #1, Smith #2 with 35% predicting that outcome. 17% flipped those two around, for a total of 52% calling it a Hales/Smith runoff.
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A total of 28% call it a Brady/Smith runoff, with 17% saying Brady will lead and 11% saying Smith will lead.
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A total of 19% think it will be a Hales/Brady runoff, evenly split on the order of finish.
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Slicing it another way, 79% think Jefferson Smith will be in the top two, 71% think Charlie Hales will be in the top two, and 48% think Eileen Brady will be in the top two.
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As for fourth place, 26% each call it for Cameron Whitten and Tre Arrow, while 13% call it for Scott Fernandez.
Fourth, the Portland City Council races:
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99% think Steve Novick is going to win outright (despite a recent poll showing him at 49% of the vote.) On the tiebreaker, the number of votes ranged from 10,011 to 450,000 -- with a median selection of 66,541 votes.
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16% of us think that Mary Nolan is going to win outright, while 15% think Amanda Fritz will. 68% think it'll be a runoff, with 39% of those thinking Fritz takes the pole position.
More on the jump, including the barnburner primary challenges between Mike Schaufler and Jeff Reardon, and Tim Knopp and Chris Telfer...
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Ah, election night. A chance to celebrate with the winners, and commiserate with the losers. Here's where it's all going down. This isn't a comprehensive list, so feel free to add more parties in the comments. The more the merrier!
- Eileen Brady, Portland Spirit, docked all night at SW Salmon & Naito Parkway
- Charlie Hales, Campaign HQ, 1220 SE Grand Ave
- Jefferson Smith, Bossanova, 722 E. Burnside
- Amanda Fritz, Ecotrust, 721 NW 9th
- Mary Nolan, NorthStar Ballroom, 635 N. Killingsworth Court
- Bob Stacey & Steve Novick, Holocene, 1001 SE Morrison
- Dwight Holton, Spirit of 77, 500 NE MLK Blvd
- Ellen Rosenblum, The Cleaners, Ace Hotel, 1022 SW Stark St
- Jennifer Williamson, Cha Taqueria & Bar, 305 NW 21st
- Sharon Meieran, Casa Colima, 6319 SW Capitol Hwy
- Martha Schrader, Oregon City Golf Club, 20124 South Beavercreek Road, Oregon City
(FYI, I've left off a handful of parties that are being held at candidates' homes, or for whom RSVP is required. Presumably they are directly inviting the folks they want to invite.)
Meanwhile, if you still need to drop off your ballot, check out the handy, easy-to-use, zoomable, searchable ballot dropbox map at BallotDrop.org provided by the Bus Project.
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