Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Well, here we are. We've completed our last trip around the sun before the 2020 census gets underway. And once again, as we do every December, we take a look at the latest population estimates for each of the 50 states from Census Bureau -- and your friendly neighborhood reapportionment nerd is ready to roll. For over a decade, I've been tracking Oregon's progress toward a sixth congressional seat.

And you know what? In 2016, we projected a sixth seat for the first time, and it's looking safer than ever.

Our sixth seat this year ranks #427, it's definitely happening. (The last seat is #435.)

The big news this year? For the first time in history, it seems that California is poised to lose a congressional seat. Right now, they're at 53. But based on this final population estimate, California's 53rd seat is at outer edge of the bubble, ranked #439.

What else? If the 2019 census estimates are right, Texas will pick up two seats. States picking up one are: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. States losing one are: California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.

Right on the bubble? Ohio could lose one. Florida could pick up a second. Maybe Montana doesn't get the +1 and Minnesota dodges losing one. (And the potential out-of-nowhere surprise? A third seat for Idaho.)

The decades-long population shift from the midwest and northeast to the south and far west continues unabated (excepting California.)


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