BlueOregon: Economy Watch: How Oregon Cities Stack Up

Economy Watch: How Oregon Cities Stack Up
Jon Perr

Every day brings new signs that Oregon has emerged from the depths of the recession. The economy has produced 6,100 new jobs each month since November. February's unemployment rate was 5.6%, down from 6.4% a year ago. And state revenue coffers have netted a $665 million windfall (which, as Russell Sadler discussed here, will be sadly squandered thanks to the Kicker).

But compared to the rest of the country, though, Oregon is still lagging. That's the message from the 2005 Milken Index of Best Performing Cities.

The Milken Index rates 200 large cities and 179 small metropolitan areas in terms of their ability to produce and retain jobs. It measures job, technology, wage and salary growth over both a five-year and one-year time frame. Not surprisingly, cities in Florida, California and the Southwest continue to dominate rankings, with their exploding service sectors, healthy tourism industries, an influx of retirees, and growing overall populations. Also predictable, the Midwest brought up the rear, with Michigan and Ohio contributing 9 of the bottom 10 major metro areas.

For the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton region, the picture is mixed. The area is in the middle of the pack, ranked 95th in the Milken Index. Portland did jump 25 spots since the 2004, showing both the quick pace of the recovery and the depths of the Oregon recession. (In 2003, the Portland area ranked 141st, but in 2002 was as high as 55th.) While helped by its 2005 job growth and highly-ranked high tech sector, the region's dismal five-year job performance (164th of 200) weighed down the Portland metro area. Other Oregon cities were also in the middle of the large metro rankings. Eugene came in at 96th (up from 81 last year), while Salem dropped 30 places to number 100.

The explosive growth of Bend is reflected in the Milken ratings. Bend came in 2nd in the index of smaller cities, with Medford ranked 26th out of 179. Corvallis came in 117th.

Yes, the Oregon is definitely headed in the right direction. But there's still a long way to go.

UPDATE: For more information regarding how Oregon compares to other states across a range of economic, education, demographic, governmental and other indicators, see the Oregon Business Plan 2006 Competitive Index. For a library of other sources of economic and demographic data for Oregon, see Perrspectives Oregon Resource Center.)

March 22, 2006 | Jon Perr | Comments (27 so far)
Permalink: Economy Watch: How Oregon Cities Stack Up

Share on Facebook

Comments

Posted by: Phen | Mar 22, 2006 11:48:07 AM

I looked at this report, and didn't find anything indicating that we are going in the "right direction." Lots of data about growth per se, but nothing about education, health care, environmental protection, crime, drugs, etc. I think most progressives are aware of "the limits of growth" as an indicator of progress.

For a more well-rounded picture, check out the Redefining Progress website and especially their "Genuine Progress Indicator." This project got some media coverage a few years ago, but may have lost momentum; not too surprising, given the prevailing ethic about what we should be measuring.

We should train ourselves to react critically (I didn't say negatively) to any such published comparisons. Nearly always, they reflect the agendas and biases of the publishers. The Milken Index appears to be a good example.

Posted by: Bert | Mar 22, 2006 12:48:51 PM

Hey,

I live in a household with more than one person who is "unemployed" but would be called a "discouraged worker." I have a hunch that part of the reason why the "unemployment rate" is down is because people aren't lining up to flip burgers, etc.

If you're going to post more on this, how about looking into labor force participation rates and quality of jobs?

Posted by: blizzak | Mar 22, 2006 6:52:14 PM

Unemployment figures are under-representative and over-representative. People who have given up on finding work are not counted (like Bert said). On the other hand, all you have to do in Oregon to keep getting unemployment checks is call a phone number and "push 1 if you looked for work for 40 hours this week" -- there are significant numbers of people counted as unemployed who aren't really looking for work.

Posted by: Jon | Mar 22, 2006 7:33:20 PM

I agree with Blizzak about the need to decipher the unemployment statistics.

For example, even though Oregon created thousands of new jobs in February, the unemployment rate rose as people sitting on the sidelines jumped back into the market.

And one sure indicator of Oregon's continued weak picture for workers is its dismal labor force participation. At 61%, Oregon is a full 5% below the national average. For more, see:

"The Good, the Bad and the Ugly at the Oregon Leadership Summit."

Posted by: josh | Mar 22, 2006 7:48:20 PM

To your point on the economy. More than $400 million of new investment came into Springfield alone, not including the new transportation infrastructure. By the end of the decade that number will be more than $1 billion with the creation of more than 5,000 new jobs. When you add Eugene to the equation this year's total was over $700 million of new investment in the Eugene-Springfield metro area (yes, Springfield outpaced Eugene by $100 million).

Posted by: Steve Bucknum | Mar 22, 2006 7:48:32 PM

I frequently watch the KZTV out of Bend. During their news shows, at least once per half hour, the announcers make a comment where the term "Central Oregon" is used inter-changably with "Bend". I call it the Bend-centric view.

So, when Jon wrote:

"But compared to the rest of the country, though, Oregon is still lagging. That's the message from the 2005 Milken Index of Best Performing Cities."

I noted that he to has a mix up of the difference between a State (or region) and a city. I call this the Portland-centric view of Oregon.

Having said that (and I must because people in Portland repeatedly think that their very tiny part of the State is the State), Jon does go on to talk about towns around the State.

Here in Crook Co. we are getting a huge influx this year of new population. The three Counties of Central Oregon are growing at a rate of 10,000 people per year - which will in ten years mean that a group about the size of all the people in Eugene will move here. For those of us that love this area, it is frightening. Many of us are looking around for someplace to move - away from all these new people.

And the business base here is very stable. Les Schwab tires is the largest private employer - we make more recap tires here for small trucks than anywhere else in the Country. We have large government employers with the Forest Service and BLM. We have some secondary lumber products plants making veneer products, window frames, etc. We do not have any large timber operations left. But the fastest growing sector is construction and real estate sales.

I view this then as a bubble. We have the best employment figures in a decade. But it is all based upon new people and their money coming here. They aren't bringing permanent jobs - except a few more service oriented (read that low wage) jobs. We cannot depend upon sustained growth to keep all those construction workers employed. While we have more dry land that could be developed without hurting anything than all of Multnomah County - we lack one key thing in the long run for development - water. There are about 40,000 acre feet of water unallocated up at the Prineville Reservoir on the Crooked River. But that is Federal Water, likely to be used to support habitat versus population growth. (40,000 acre feet of water equals one square mile of water that is 62.5 feet deep - that is a lot of water.)

One thing most people don't understand is how decisions over the last decade affect water use in Central Oregon. The Oregon Dept. of Geology has ruled that surface water and ground water are linked due to the geology of the region. This means that any new commercial well has to buy water rights from another commercial source (such as irrigation) and in that transaction leave 10% behind for stream flow. So, as we add people, we dry up land and decrease agriculture.

What does all of this mean for the regional economy of Central Oregon? It means it looks real good right now, but has a rotten center that will in the long run catch up to us and make life in the future less comfortable, less well sustained, and out of balance both economically and environmentally.

In other words, this part of Oregon's economic viability is not sustainable. All it will take to turn our golden economy into a horrible depressed mess is a national event that affects real estate value. Higher interest rates, another national disaster, or a terror attack could stop the real estate land rush that is the foundation of our economy at this time - kill it literally in a day.

So, I also disagree with Jon's conclusion about "right direction". The economy of this region of Oregon is as fragile as an eggshell. Looks good on paper until the first crack appears.

Posted by: Zarathustra | Mar 27, 2006 9:46:02 AM

I've been to lazy to get the data an break out the numbers, but did anyone notice unemployment by sector and age? I'm beginning to think that the current, constant 5% unemployed base has little to do with corporate efficiency, downsizing and everyone buying new hardward to stave off Y2K bugs.

It seems that what was difficult before, getting a new job after age 40, has become nearly impossible. I am 45 and am asked about every 3rd interview, "Don't you think you're too old for this job", or "I could imagine you being my peer but not my subordinates", etc. If this is a common occurance, given the demographic bulge that is the baby boomers, maybe it accounts for that permanently unemployed core to the numbers that has grown consistently since 1995.

Posted by: sharetipsinfo | Dec 12, 2008 3:49:51 AM

Hi,
Mumbai bomb blast can be considered as one of the most horrible attack. Due to blast even Exchanges like Regards
BSE and NSE are kept closed for one day.
Now post attack we are getting news of resignations of various political leaders and officers. So is that another political move or there inner self is waking up??

What you have to say about it??, Looks like some political move is there!!

Now stock market will be affected by all political moves, though sentiments are not good but on technical charts market is quite bullish for very short term, still sentiments will effect Nifty movement. So all are advised to trade in small quantity and with strict stoploss till the picture is clear.

Regards
www.ShareTipsInfo.com Team

Call at:-

+91-9891655316
+91-9899056796
+91-9891890425

On Yahoo Messenger: ShareTipsInfo@yahoo.com or ShareTipsInfo_1@yahoo.com

On Google Talk: ShareTipsInfo1

Mail at:-
contact@sharetipsinfo.com
sharetipsinfo@yahoo.com
sharetipsinfo_1@yahoo.com
sharetipsinfo@gmail.com

Posted by: sharegyan | Dec 14, 2008 10:05:31 PM

Hello,
Stock market is a volatile market. Investors are afraid of entering Indian stock market due to such volatile conditions. FII are the one who are selling
shares like anything. Now we can see some relief rally in the market but still recession can curb the movement of the stock market. In these sort of market investors and
traders are confused like which stock they should select that is stock selection is the major issue now.

Have any doubt lets discuss it and help everyone

Happy Trading,

ShareGyan

Posted by: ShareTipsInfo.com | Dec 22, 2008 4:43:25 AM

HI,
After Mumbai attack sentiments were really negative in the stock market. Still BSE managed to touch 10K mark which is a great achievement and it shows the confidence of investors which they have in Indian economy.

Long way to go

Regards
www.ShareTipsInfo.com Team

Call at:-

+91-9891655316
+91-9899056796
+91-9891890425

On Yahoo Messenger: ShareTipsInfo@yahoo.com or ShareTipsInfo_1@yahoo.com

On Google Talk: ShareTipsInfo1

Mail at:-
contact@sharetipsinfo.com
sharetipsinfo@yahoo.com
sharetipsinfo_1@yahoo.com
sharetipsinfo@gmail.com

Posted by: KnowYourProfit | Jan 9, 2009 10:32:58 PM

This blog is nice and informative,good to know that the blog created by the webmaster is very helpfull to the visitors

Now on Saturday i.e 6th Dec'08 RBI has cut Repo rate by 100 BPS to 6.5%, due to this we can see some rebound in the Indian Stock Market,as this is one of the factors which will also decide the movement of Nifty in coming days along with different other factors,our advice for intraday traders is to trade light

Any Query

Call us

+91-9871142419
+91-9212663485

KnowYourProfit

Posted by: KnowYourProfit | Jan 12, 2009 2:43:57 AM

This blog is nice and informative,good to know that the blog created by the webmaster is very helpfull to the visitors

Any Query

Call us

+91-9871142419
+91-9212663485

KnowYourProfit

Posted by: sharetipsinfo | Jan 14, 2009 1:22:07 AM

Stock market is a volatile market. Where people invest with the intention of making money but many traders and investors end’s up as a looser. Must be wondering what makes one trader a winner in the stock market and another one as a looser in the market.

Apart from this result season is also going on. Though not that favorable results are expected this time. But INFOSYS came up with very good results now we need to wait till giants like RELIANCE, SBI and other declares there numbers. As they will be responsible for further market movement.
For now we strongly suggest everyone not to take too many deliveries in there portfolio. Just wait for some more time for quality value buying.

In Indian stock market many people have many doubts but they don’t want to clear them by consulting professionals nor they want to raise there questions where other traders and investors can help them out. But now many portals are coming up with QNA sections where investors and traders can exchange there views about stock and stock market. Indeed it’s a great help for everyone who are related to stock market.

Regards
Regards
SHARETIPSINFO TEAM

Posted by: KnowYourProfit | Feb 23, 2009 2:30:18 AM

This blog is nice and informative,
its our pleasure to post a comment on this blog created by the webmaster

Now in the coming trading sessions i.e. in Feb'09 one can see important factors deciding the movement of the Indian Stock Market,one of the them is the results of the Various companies which had to be announced plays a key role in the movement in the Stocks.So this is suggested to trade with a Perfect Strategy to be followed for trading in the indian stock market

We welcomed your Queries at :

+91-9871142419
+91-9212663485

Mail your Queries at:

knowyourprofit@gmail.com

KnowYourProfit

Posted by: KnowYourProfit | Feb 26, 2009 12:07:07 AM

This blog is nice and informative,its our pleasure to post a comment on this blog created by the webmaster

Now as such we had seen in the month of Feb'09 that volitality was very much there considering the various factors deciding the movement of the Indian Stock Market

Now in the coming Month of March'09 which is also the year's closing period,also the important Policies would might be declared around the world will be deciding the movement of Indian Stock Market

Happy Trading a Head

Queries are welcomed

09871142419
09212663485

Knowyourprofit@gmail.com

KnowYourProfit

Posted by: sharetipsinfo | Feb 27, 2009 10:06:07 PM

In the time of recession one job or one work is hardly fulfilling needs of people. So everyone is looking for supplementary source of income.
Now the question is what can be that source of income in such a bad phase of economy??

Well it’s very difficult to start new business at this point of time as it requires lot of cash and efforts. So again question is how to make more money in such conditions when needs are same and income is low?

We strongly suggest that if you like to take bit of risk and don’t want to spend too much money and time on new venture then stock market is the right place for you.
To be very frank this is not the right time for investment that is for long term to medium term investment but every day is a favourable day for day trading. No matter if NSE or BSE
is bullish or bearish as In stock market one can earn in both of these trends.

So just think about it and see if stock market can be the right place to make some extra money.

Please feel free to contact us for any query.

Regards
SHARETIPSINFO TEAM

Posted by: admin | Mar 16, 2009 5:14:11 AM

Indian Stock market have done well. Nifty has recovered 200 points in 3 trading sessions. Overbought close to 50 EMA, caution advised. - http:/www.TradersPlace.in

Posted by: sharetipsinfo | Apr 2, 2009 2:48:58 AM

Hi,
It’s a well know fact that stock market is affected by elections and now Election 2009 are about to begin in some time so for sure they will also have some sort of impact on Indian stock market.
One can find complete report on Impact of elections on stock market

Apart from Elections another major concern for Indian stock market is Inflation. There was a time when we were concerned about rising inflation but now we are conscious about this falling inflation.

So big question is what should day traders and investors do?

Frankly speaking day traders are least concerned about the market they simply follow trend and make maximum out of it. But yes investors should keep there portfolio light till the elections get over.

Please feel free to contact us for any query.

Regards
SHARETIPSINFO TEAM
make some extra money.

Please feel free to contact us for any query.

Regards
SHARETIPSINFO TEAM

Posted by: KnowYourProfit | Apr 22, 2009 11:28:52 PM