Just released: KATU/Oregonian Poll
The KATU/Oregonian poll has some great numbers - and a few to watch.
Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski, who appears to be benefitting from an angry voter mood toward President Bush and the Republican Party, now holds a lead of seven percentage points over GOP challenger Ron Saxton.
In addition, Measure 48 - the TABOR Trap - is losing badly 54 to 21. Term limits measure 45 is losing 55 to 30. One cautionary spot: Measure 43, parental notification, is currently losing - but only 48 to 42.
Oregonian coverage here. Get the whole poll memo here (pdf). Discuss.
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Nov. 02, 2006
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connect with blueoregon
6:07 p.m.
Nov 2, '06
Guardedly optimistic news on the Oregon front. Too bad the other measures were not polled as well.
Have to laugh though at the news of bigot and hypocrite Ted Haggard, one of the most prominent and politically powerful evangelical pastors in the country, resigning today as president of the 30-million-member National Association of Evangelicals because of a sex and drug scandal involving meth and a male hooker. That oughta help the "value voter" crowd get turned-on to vote GOP. (wry grin)
Nov 2, '06
Although 43 is close, most ballot initiative specialists will tell you that if you're under 50% yes going into election day you're usually going to lose. With the notable exception of gay marriage bans the "No" vote for any initiative almost almost goes higher as the election gets closer (because most people think the title makes it sound okay) and to be reasonably safe you want to be around 55% yes about now.
Nov 3, '06
Oh, but they were polled as well! 48? Going down, fast. Yay!
8:57 a.m.
Nov 3, '06
I'm glad about M48. I didn't really want to move to Vancouver.
Anyone have thoughts about why Saxton's negatives have gotten so high? I don't remember that from previous polls.
Col-lin-gow-ski (nice pro-nun-see-a-shun guide!) positive to negative ratio is not great for an incumbent (50/35), but Saxton has slipped into negative territory (37/42).
Given that ratio, it's amazing that Saxton does as well as he does in this poll.
My own feeling is that Saxton has run an almost completely "state of the times" and "time for a change" campaign with very little positive argument for his own election. Many Oregonians who are dissatisfied with the performance of the governor over the past four years are not going to cast what is essentially a completely negative vote.
Nov 3, '06
wow, exciting news about No on 43! Thank you, you just made my day! Now, can someone get those idiots who are trying to get truckers to honk at the Hollywood Max station (over I-84, every morning this week) to go away?
10:03 a.m.
Nov 3, '06
The pro-nun-cee-a-shun guide kept distracting me. I couldn't decide what was funnier, that they are polling using people who don't know how to approximate the governor's name or that they mispronounced his name in the pro-nun-cee-a-shun guide. (coo-lin-gow-ski instead of coo-lun-gos-ki)
10:27 a.m.
Nov 3, '06
Hey Tim Hibbits! There's no Dubya in Kulongoski.
Coo-lun-GAH-skee. Not Coo-lin-GOW-skee.
And Paul, thanks for noting the favorables. I'm astounded: Ron Saxton's favorable numbers are worse than George W. Bush's.
10:39 a.m.
Nov 3, '06
They were? Where do you get that from? Only the three polls on M48, M45 and M43 were in the Hibbits poll results released to the public. Are there results on the other measures not released that you have that we should know about?
Nov 3, '06
Mary Starett (Stare-Rett) has 6% of the vote in this poll, doesn't that mean that she can participate in the next debate?
Unfortunately, I don't think there is another debate. Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'd love to tune in to a 3 way debate with her. Drinking games would abound.
Nov 3, '06
Only you can change this do-nothing congress by votting.
Write-in paul nevin for congress. approved by paul nevin and without money, asks for your vote
Nov 5, '06
There will be no further debates--however it looks as though the Constitution Party is establishing some 5% funding guidelines (unless that's only for federal elections). If that is the case, then more power to them. Let religious fundamentalists vote for the party that isn't lying to them.
Nov 30, '06