New Hampshire Primary
Today's the day. The New Hampshire primary.
While we await results, here's some links to get you through the day:
LeftyBlogs NH
Blue Hampshire
NH Insider
Concord Monitor
Manchester Union-Leader
WMUR 9
Some questions:
* Will Hillary Clinton bounce back?
* McCain or Romney?
* Will Mike Huckabee do better than fourth?
* If he wins today, is Barack Obama home free for the nomination?
Use this thread to discuss the presidential race.
|
January 8, 2008 |
open discussion | Comments (99 so far)
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Comments
Posted by: Doug | Jan 8, 2008 4:26:45 AM
* Will Hillary Clinton bounce back?
No.
* McCain or Romney?
McCain.
* Will Mike Huckabee do better than fourth?
Yes.
* If he wins today, is Barack Obama home free for the nomination?
No.
Posted by: Bill R. | Jan 8, 2008 6:35:11 AM
Hillary is done. The Clinton dynastic dreams are finished.
Obama pulls enough independents to make it a cliffhanger for McCain.
Huckabee is third further fracturing the Repub party.
Obama's wave is a tsunami sweeping toward nomination and Nov. victory.
Posted by: Matthew Sutton | Jan 8, 2008 8:07:07 AM
The early reports is that they are seeing record breaking turnout in New Hampshire. This bodes well for Obama since he has brought so many new voters into the process.
Is this all about "rhetoric" or "goose bumps" as some have been suggesting? I don't think so. Obama has the right message for this point in history. I also think that he and his campaign has been working extremely hard and has a great organization.
Check out the following comment from the Obama Campaign:
"Obama’s momentum in the Granite State is backed by organization. Since February, the campaign has made over 1.5 million phone calls and knocked on over 400,000 doors. Over the weekend, the campaign knocked on almost 180,000 doors, made nearly 170,000 calls, and signed up nearly 18,000 new supporters. More than 1,000 New Hampshire college students have already voted for Barack Obama. Now we are ramping up for a GOTV push unlike anything the Granite State has ever seen."
This hard working "hands on" grassroots approach will a great plus in the general election.
Posted by: Ben DuPree | Jan 8, 2008 8:30:17 AM
Obama's going to crush the field by gathering spare indy voters. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney squeak it out against McCain since the latter won't get all those juicy indy voters that Obama's going to pick up.
Posted by: JohnH | Jan 8, 2008 8:45:28 AM
It will be a supreme irony if HRC loses the front loaded primary season. The whole concept of stacking a bunch of big states at the beginning was the brainchild of a campaign and its enablers that wanted to take advantage of the Clinton name. It was thought that "unknowns" like Obama could never compete in such a quick, broad competition, either financially or in name recognition. Now it appears that it is Hillary who may not be left time for voters to reconsider her candidacy before being swept away by the Obama tidal wave.
With each party's nominee being selected a year before inauguration, there is an extraodinary amount time for bad things to happen--a humongous gaffe, an serious illness, a recession, or a third party. We may be choosing a President between two nominees whose positions are no longer relevant to the issues facing the nation on election day.
Personally, I don't understand why the primary season has to start until the Summer before the elections. Most European democracies don't even allow that much time.
Posted by: BOHICA | Jan 8, 2008 8:54:51 AM
The election season is just another edition of American Idol.
Posted by: Jesse Cornett | Jan 8, 2008 8:56:27 AM
If you'd like to gather, cheer on your favorite candidate, argue about whether the candidates are technically "tied" for any place, and enjoy conversation with the few of us that treat the presidential primary like World Cup, please come on down to the Venue (formerly known as Billy Reed's - 2808 NE Martin Luther King, Jr Blvd., Portland) at 5:00 p.m. (some polls close as early as 7 pm est and others at 8, so results should come out shortly after)
Posted by: lestatdelc | Jan 8, 2008 9:00:36 AM
My prediction
Democrats
Obama: 38%
Clinton: 34%
Edwards: 17%
Richardson: 7%
Kuccinich: 2%
Other (including Gravel): 2%
GOP
McCain: 37%
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 11%
Paul: 10%
Guiliani: 6%
Thompson: 4%
Other: 1%
Posted by: torridjoe | Jan 8, 2008 9:09:52 AM
I think rather than looking beyond goose bumps, the truth is that soaring rhetoric and the chill bumps it evokes are a necessity for what we're seeing. The presidential race stands alone as one where intangibles rule. People vote their gut, and they let their idealism transport them. What we're seeing (and its starting to look truly historic) can only come from transcendance. People do not swarm the ballot box because they like your health care plan. They just feel it. And man, are people feeling it right now. I'm especially interested to see what appears to be a mass switch of Afican-Americans to Obama in SC. It's like they were waiting to see if whites would REALLY vote for a black guy, and now the floodgates have opened.
I'm still backing Edwards, but the prospect of a large ideological shift spurred by an inspiring candidate is exciting. I at least trust that Obama won't turn evil on us, although he might end up squandering the opportunity. As a nation, we sure could use a benvilent figure to get us believing in ourselves again, and the power of hope instead of fear.
Posted by: torridjoe | Jan 8, 2008 9:28:58 AM
oh, predictions? I'll take it as an omen that out of the first 10 ballots cast in NH at Dixville Notch, Hillary got zero of them. (She did get 3 of 13 in Hart's location--wow, Hillary Country!)
Obama breaks 40 in record turnout, creating a very tight GOP race and possibily costing McCain the win. Hillary and Edwards are separated by 3 points or fewer in the mid-20s. Huck finishes behind Ron Paul.
Posted by: Dan Campbell | Jan 8, 2008 10:02:05 AM
Mike Huckabee has our vote!
Mike Huckabee was named as one of Americas top 5 governors in Time magazine!
Mike Huckabee consistently reduced taxes and left Arkansas with a billion dollar surplus!
Mike Huckabee was the most successful governor in Arkansas for over 10 years!
Mike Huckabee beleives in some things, and he stands for some things! And those things are what we common Americans believe in!
Mike is an authentic conservative, but more importantly, an authentic human being!
Mike Huckabee is from the people, for the people!
Mike Huckabee spent 1 doallar to Mitt Romney''s 20 but still took more than 10,000 votes for a first place fisnish in Iowa!
Mike Huckabee has the largest support of military members!
Mike Huckabee wants to honor America and finish the job in the war on terror!
Mike Huckabee is a great guy, and the best choice for president I have ever seen!
We like Mike!
Dan Campbell
Sgt., USMC
Posted by: Frank Carper | Jan 8, 2008 10:15:17 AM
I'm just hoping to see the New York Times headline: "For a former frontrunner, an ass kicking."
Posted by: Josh Berezin | Jan 8, 2008 10:45:07 AM
It might have been smart to share this link before the last day of campaigning in New Hampshire, but the Concord Monitor has been running a terrific photo blog since campaigns started working New Hampshire in August 2007. I imagine we'll get some more updates today if the photographers ever get a moment.
Posted by: torridjoe | Jan 8, 2008 10:45:36 AM
Dan's joking, right? Or was it unintentional hilarity to pimp him as the "most popular governor in Arkansas"? Usually there isn't much competition. :)
I'm pretty sure the rest of the field is hammering him for criticizing Bush on the war, right? So that whole "finish the job" part sounds like BS.
Posted by: paul gronke | Jan 8, 2008 11:54:29 AM
Drudge is reporting ballot shortages throughout NH.
Posted by: lestatdelc | Jan 8, 2008 11:56:20 AM
We Democrats like Mike too, and hope he is the GOP nomination. Go vertical all the way!
(wry grin)
Posted by: lestatdelc | Jan 8, 2008 12:06:53 PM
Posted by: Dan Campbell | Jan 8, 2008 10:02:05 AMMike Huckabee consistently reduced taxes and left Arkansas with a billion dollar surplus!
LOL, so THAT's why Club for Growth is so in love with him:
/snark
- Huckabee signed a 3-cent gas tax increase in 1999
- He called for a state sales tax hike in 2002
- He signed a 25-cent cigarette tax hike in 2003
- He allowed a major tax hike package to pass in 2004
Love this moneyquote from the Grover Norquist wing of the GOP:
And this guy wants to be the Republican nominee for president in 2008? He also opposes school choice, and spends money like a drunken sailor (he increased spending 65.3% from 1996 to 2004).I'm sorry, but he is NOT one of the best Republican governors in the country and he's not presidential material. Period.
Onward Christian soilder... nominate Huckabee and pass the popocron... "GOP Donor party of six..."
Posted by: Stephanie V | Jan 8, 2008 1:49:57 PM
Hey, I heard somebody is making phone calls in South Carolina telling voters there that Barack Obama fathered two black babies! %^>
Posted by: trishka | Jan 8, 2008 2:04:43 PM
I'm still backing Edwards, but the prospect of a large ideological shift spurred by an inspiring candidate is exciting. I at least trust that Obama won't turn evil on us, although he might end up squandering the opportunity. As a nation, we sure could use a benevolent figure to get us believing in ourselves again, and the power of hope instead of fear.
torridjoe, i really like how you phrased this. i feel the same way. i like barak obama a lot, don't love him though in the sense of wanting to jump unreservedly on his bandwagon. like you, i see edwards as (marginally) the best of the lot.
i am really happy to see the response that obama is getting, because that says as much about where our country is right now than it does about him, if that makes any sense.
Posted by: paul | Jan 8, 2008 2:53:01 PM
* Will Hillary Clinton bounce back?
What does this mean? She will finish second. Will that be interpreted by the media as bouncing back? Not sure. She will surely stay in the race until Feb 5th.
* McCain or Romney?
McCain. Romney is over.
* Will Mike Huckabee do better than fourth?
Yes. Second.
* If he wins today, is Barack Obama home free for the nomination?
No. "Home free" would seem to indicate that he has no further challenges. California, the South, many industrial states remain a battle.
Posted by: liberalincarnate | Jan 8, 2008 6:13:39 PM
Although, Obama might still pull off a win in NH, it doesn't look good at this moment. It seems as if the heavy turn out fell of Hillary's crying. Will nothing ever change in this country?
Posted by: Chris Lowe | Jan 8, 2008 6:40:28 PM
Donor party, as in "They bit the hands that fed them..."?
Posted by: pdxatheist | Jan 8, 2008 6:50:44 PM
liberalincarnate,
i doubt it's hillary's crying that's doing the trick. i'd like to think that democrats and democratic leaning independents (whatever that means...fencesitters! ;0) are starting to take a good hard look at whether a political novice like obama will really be our strongest candidate. fortunately, it seems like the new hampshire primary voters aren't jumping on the iowa college student bandwagon.
love her or hate her, hillary is a grizzled veteran who has been attacked by the right for the last 30 years and still is an electable candidate. as i've said before at this site (and been murdered for it by obama backers, to whom i'll give credit for giving me food for thought...see the obama's victory speech for details) i believe hillary clinton will be the best president for our country. as polarizing as she is, in this environment i find it difficult to conceive of a republican victory in november. the question of electability is all but moot on our side. she's not cute and fuzzy like obama, but she's tough and smart and knows how to win, and i think she'll be able to govern sensibly, intuitively, and compassionately. still, i'm watching returns live and hillary only has a 2% lead with 43% of precincts reporting, so the goodly folks in new hampshire, who surely represent an accurate cross-section of our country (as do the voters in iowa) may yet do their part as (presumed) kingmakers. i humbly await the inevitable onslaught...
Posted by: Chris Lowe | Jan 8, 2008 7:07:16 PM
I don't think it's Clinton's crying either, I think it's the grotesque sexist media double standard that says she has to be tough to be commander-in-chief but if she acts tough that she's cold and heartless and unfeminine but that if she cries then she's feminine = not tough enough to be commander-in-chief. Short version: media can't accept female president.
Never have liked her politics & like her proposals least of the D big three, but the double standard is simply crap. If she's nominated and elected she'll be a far better president than our current swaggering cretin.
Posted by: pdxatheist | Jan 8, 2008 7:44:26 PM
i couldn't agree more. she's damned if she do, damned if she don't, a lot that is shared by women in general in our society. people say she's a robot, she's too aloof, and then she shows a genuine, unscripted moment of human emotion and she's derided as a crybaby. i'll happily vote for edwards, obama, or clinton. that's not a choice of the lesser of evils, but the greater of goods.
Posted by: Dan | Jan 8, 2008 8:07:03 PM
The thing is...People have been betting against the Clintons for 35 years, and every time, they lost their money.
Clinton is too young.
Clinton is too tarnished
Clinton cant win back the governor's office
Clinton doesnt have the money to run
Clinton cant win the nomination
Clinton cant win the general
Clinton cant pass meaningful legislation
Clinton is done after losing Healthcare
Clinton cant get reelected
Clinton is done after being impeached
Clinton cant win a senate race
Only 2 left...
Clinton cant get the Nomination
Clinton cant win the General
Where are you putting your money??
Posted by: pdxatheist | Jan 8, 2008 8:55:43 PM
i've just got a few general thoughts, having watched speeches by paul, edwards, mccain, obama, and clinton. maybe it's easy to get swept up in the heat of the moment, but i don't think i detected insincerity on the part of any of the candidates. hell, the primary is the time when you pander to your base, when you can be the most honest. the question isn't so much 'which candidate believes in what they're saying' as 'whose vision do you believe in?'
paul, for all that i love his rabid social libertarianism and anti-war stance, is a complete wacko. he seems more like a senile old grandpa who lives in a rusty trailer outside of kingman, az, and pops up with a loaded shotgun every time he hears a coyote rustling outside in the middle of the night. mccain, who can't respect a man who spent years in a tiger cage and came out of it with such dignity and courage? having said that, their moronic idolatry of the free market, mccain's hawkishness and social conservatism and paul's 2nd amendment anachronism and keystone cops tax policy are absolutely appalling.
edwards seemed rattled, exhausted, and bafflingly optimistic. i think he's got real conviction though, and i think, like last time, he'd make a great veep. i'll admit right now that obama has speaking skills that no other candidate on either side can match. hands down, he's the most skilled orator, the most handsome, the most charismatic candidate either party has to offer. while his concession speech left me almost breathless and on the verge of tears, hillary's victory speech was somewhat flat after listening to barak. but i keep reminding myself not to get too carried away. all the obama supporters who shot me down the other day had some valid points. hillary's vote for the iraq war, in retrospect, does seem a bit baffling. ( before one gets too holier-than-thou, i wonder if any hardcore obama supporters can point to how many votes where barak has voted to kill further funding for the iraq war.) i'll leave it to the hardcore political wonks to out-argue me, and as i said earlier, i do have some good food for thought.
torridjoe said above that in the presidential elections, people vote their guts. i largely agree with that assessment, so here's what my gut tells me. this is our year (meaning us big Ds.) if i thought there was a real shot of a republican winning this fall, i would pick obama in the primary, because his charisma alone could very well carry the day. it still might. but since i think we will probably win no matter what, i have to think beyond that.
while obama is full of hope and promises, my gut tells me that it will be a helluva lot harder to enact his vision of a happy, united america than he's letting on. i think his idealism, untempered as it is by many years of politics, will stand in his way when he takes office. i don't know how he would realize his vision, as marvelous as that vision is. what others perceive as a strength, i perceive as a weakness. the very fact that he is a relative novice is betrayed by what i can only describe as a naivete in which he feels that all america will unite behind him once he's elected president.
while hillary clearly is at a deficit in terms of approachability, i get a sense that she is more grounded in reality as far as what it will take both to win the general election and govern our nation afterwards. we are still living in an age of hyperpartisanism, and she understands that and will ultimately be more effective at advancing a progressive agenda. there. that's my gut. i'll let others throw out all sorts of facts and statistics and tabulations from various senate votes in the past. in homage to torridjoe's analysis that it's the gut that counts in presidential elections, my gut tells me that in the long run, hillary will do a better job as president.
Posted by: LT | Jan 8, 2008 10:13:40 PM
"nominate Huckabee and pass the popocron... "
Thanks for a laugh after a long stressful day. I have never tasted popocron!
Posted by: Eric | Jan 9, 2008 1:08:18 AM
Hillary wins.
Obama's 15 minutes of fame are just about over.
Posted by: LT | Jan 9, 2008 1:39:27 AM
Actually, America wins because this nomination battle (in both parties) is wide open and anything can happen.
Now if Edwards or Richardson were to win a primary or a caucus, perhaps even Oregon's primary might mean something!
Posted by: torridjoe | Jan 10, 2008 10:42:14 PM
"in homage to torridjoe's analysis that it's the gut that counts in presidential elections, my gut tells me that in the long run, hillary will do a better job as president."
Since I'm an Edwards backer, JUST THIS ONCE I'll advise you to go with your head, not your gut. :)
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Ne modifiez pas la dose de votre mйdicament. S'il vous plaоt appelez votre prescripteur ou professionnel de la santй afin de dйterminer si votre dose doit кtre rййvaluйe.
L'utilisation de Viagra® (sildйnafil) ne protиge ni vous ni votre partenaire contre l'infection par le VIH (le virus qui cause le SIDA) ou d'autres maladies sexuellement transmissibles.
Oщ puis-je conserver mon mйdicament?
Garder hors de la portйe des enfants dans un conteneur que les petits enfants ne peuvent pas ouvrir.
Conserver а la tempйrature ambiante entre 15 et 30 degrйs C (59 degrйs F et 86). Jetez tous les mйdicaments non utilisйs aprиs la date d'expiration.
Quelle est la durйe de conservation des comprimйs?
La date d'йchйance est mentionnйe sur chaque blister. Elle est diffйrente pour diffйrents groupes. La durйe de conservation est de 2 ans а partir de la date de la fabrication et diffйre de groupe en groupe tenant compte de la date de fabrication.
Remarque importante
L'information ci-dessus est pr.vue pour compl.ter, et non pour remplacer l'expertise et le jugement de votre m.decin, pharmacien ou tout autre professionnel de sant.. Vous ne devez pas en d.duire tout seul que la prise de ce m.dicament est s.re, appropri.e et efficace pour vous.
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Posted by: Fan of Obama | Jan 8, 2008 1:42:52 AM
As my name says I'm an Obama fan. But putting that aside I think for the Democrats there are two possible outcomes:
NH Primary Outcome -- Obama wins by 12% or higher and Clinton does not get 25%
Result -- The election is over before Super-Duper Tuesday (Does anyone else laugh when Carl Castle says that on NPR?). Obama wins South Carolina and Nevada in landslide. Clinton draws a line in the sand at California but pull ads when Obama goes 10 points up on her three days before Feb 5th.
NH Primary Outcome -- Obama wins by less than 11%.
Results -- It becomes OK to cry in politics and baseball. We all get to see the "Come Back Kid II: the Revenge of Hilary." Clinton does better than expected in South Carolina. People start to take another look Hilary. Obama and Clinton start battling over the Super Duper Tuesday states and it is really close in 15 states. No clear democratic nominee till early Feb.
Enjoy the show all.