Who might run in Hooley's seat? Some wild speculation.
First, the bad news. As we told you earlier, Darlene Hooley is retiring. Twelve years after winning her congressional seat, and ousting a Republican incumbent, she's calling it quits.
Democrats are right to be worried. The seat has a Republican registration edge of 5000 voters. Until Hooley won the seat in 1996, the seat flipped back and forth between the parties. It's a slightly better district now, but it's easily Oregon's toughest swing district -- and should catapult into the top 10 most competitive in the country.
Next, the good news. It's a good year for her to retire. Nationally and locally, Democrats are fired up and Republicans are demoralized. Big national money will be flowing into Oregon for the U.S. Senate race and the presidential campaign.
Over on the Republican side, Mike Erickson was already prepped to run - but expect the national GOP to try and find a stronger candidate. Erickson's ethical challenges and questions about his past don't likely make him a top-tier candidate (though his bankroll helps.)
One possibility? Kevin Mannix. He's been stymied in two runs for Attorney General and two runs for Governor - but he once represented part of the 5th in the Legislature. The mid-Willamette Valley has always been a strong area for him. Of course, he wouldn't be able to rake in six-figure checks from his sugar-daddy, Loren Parks - the Las Vegas sexual hypnotist.
I'm sure there are other Republicans, but I'm more interested in the Democrats. Who are the plausible candidates? Keep in mind that filing day is March 11 - and we're less than 15 weeks from the primary election.
[A full disclosure moment: Lots of people mentioned below are current or former clients of my company. The specifics are at the end of the post. As always, I speak here only for myself.]
The most likely Democratic candidates, in alpha order:
- Rep. Brian Clem. He's a rookie state legislator, but defeated a Republican incumbent with 62% of the vote in 2006. His legislative district is the swingiest part of Hooley's swing district. He's a solid progressive that's made inroads with the agricultural community that's so important to the 5th district. Watch the video of his argument for Measure 49. UPDATE: I've confirmed with Brian that he's not running for Congress in 2008. He's out.
- Senator Peter Courtney. He's the Senate President, and seems happy as a clam there. But, he's been rumored to have been interested in the congressional seat for years. He represents the same swing part of the 5th District as Brian Clem above. He's got a solid record of achievement and a strong profile that make him an attractive candidate for the 5th District, but he's older than any of the others mentioned here.
- Paul Evans. He's an Iraq War veteran, a former small-town mayor, and was a state senate candidate in 2006. He's currently the Governor's military policy advisor. Check out his profile on BlueOregon. He considered a run against Gordon Smith this year, but ultimately declined. His wife, Joan Mooney Evans, is Hooley's chief of staff.
- ADDED: Jim Hill. He's a former state treasurer and two-time candidate for Governor. He also represented the Salem area in the State Senate. There's a great guest column on BlueOregon that outlines his positions back in 2006. (Thank you to commenter Mari Anne for the suggestion.)
- Rep. Dave Hunt. He's the House Democrats' majority leader, and is widely expected to replace Jeff Merkley as Speaker in 2009 (if the Democrats retain control.) There's a good profile of him in the Oregon City News. Before he was a legislator, he was Hooley's district director. UPDATE: Jeff Mapes reports, and I've confirmed: Dave Hunt is out. He's staying in the Lege.
- ADDED: Bryan Johnston. Reports from PolitickerOR indicate that former Rep. Bryan Johnston is considering a campaign. He was the dean of the business school at Willamette and an interim university president. In the state legislature, he also represented the Salem area.
- John Kroger and Rep. Greg Macpherson. The two men are locked in a tough primary race for Attorney General - and might see a congressional race as a better alternative. Neither could take their state funds to a federal race, but they've already got strong campaign operations up and running. UPDATE: PolitickerOR reports, and I've confirmed: Greg Macpherson is out. He'll keep on running for AG. UPDATE: John Kroger is out. I've confirmed with his campaign manager.
- Senator Kurt Schrader. A long-time member of the Senate, Schrader is a big-animal veteranarian by profession. He's generally considered one of the more moderate members of the Senate, and has long been rumored to be considering a run for higher office.
- Martha Schrader. She's a popular Clackamas County Commissioner, and is expected to run for re-election this year. When Hooley ran for Congress, she too was a Clackamas County Commissioner - so it's been done before. Prior to serving at the county, she was a legislative aide for her husband, Kurt.
Of course, by Oregon law, candidates for Congress don't have to live in the congressional district. You just have to be 25, a citizen, and a resident of Oregon. So, it could be anyone.
Which leads to one more tantalizing possibility:
- Steve Novick. Unlike any of the above candidates, Novick has substantial funds in a federal campaign account - and a small but fervent national following. Were he to jump into the congressional seat, he'd quickly be the favorite. He'd also likely get lots of support from individuals and organizations that would love to see an end to the primary battle in the U.S. Senate race.
The bottom line? It's going to very tough for anyone to fill Darlene Hooley's well-worn sneakers - either as a candidate or a member of Congress.
Stay tuned. I'll share more when I hear it.
[OK, my full disclosures: I was on Darlene Hooley's staff in 1996. Best campaign I ever worked on. Brian Clem, Greg Macpherson, and Martha Schrader are consulting clients of my company. Paul Evans and Dave Hunt have used some of our technical services. And Steve Novick is running against another of my clients, Jeff Merkley. No, I'm not working for anyone who is running for the 5th District. Not yet, anyway. As always, I speak here only for myself.]
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February 7, 2008 |
Kari Chisholm | Comments (165 so far)
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Posted by: Mari Anne | Feb 7, 2008 12:43:56 PM
Jim Hill of course. He knows the district well. Sits on the National NARAL Board. He has good name recognition in the area. Jim would be a great candidate. He could hold the seat for the Dem's. I am truly sorry to lose Darlene but would be wowed if Hill would step up.
Posted by: Pete Forsyth | Feb 7, 2008 12:47:53 PM
Kari, I'm interested in the financial issues you raise, can you expand? First, you say Loren Parks couldn't fund a Mannix run -- is this because of Federal limits on campaign finance that don't apply to state offices like AG and Governor?
Second, you say that Kroger or Macpherson (and presumably anyone in the SoS race, like Vicki Walker or Rick Metsger, who I think both are in the 5th) couldn't move their funds into a Federal race. What restricts that? State law? Federal law? Constitutional? Statutory?
Finally, anybody entering this race oughtta be pretty secure in his/her home life…if Wikipedia's right, none of the Reps in the 5th have yet gotten through without a divorce! Eesh!
Posted by: RogerD | Feb 7, 2008 12:48:26 PM
I would think there is at least one other tantalizing possibility. Jeff Merkley. The same set of facts that makes Novick a strong possibility would also set the stage for Merkley to make a bid for Hooley's seat. Just to put that out there.
Disclosure: I am not working for any of these possible candidates, nor am I a decided supporter of any except John Kroger (who will be an outstanding AG).
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 12:54:19 PM
Fascinating suggestions. None of the SOS candidates live in the 5th, and none of them could take their money with them. So, possible, but unlikely.
Pete... On the money: The federal individual donation limit is $2300 per election. So, Loren Parks could donate $2300 twice. Which is a far cry from the $300,000 checks that Mannix is accustomed to picking up from him.
Similarly, you can't move state money into federal because of those limits. A state committee can donate to a federal campaign - I think it's either $5000 or $10,000 - but you can't move the whole enchilada.
Posted by: SecofState | Feb 7, 2008 12:55:08 PM
This might be a perfect time for Metsger to jump in. He seems to be in second place. Has he ever expressed an interest in DC?
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 1:00:51 PM
I've updated the post above with the news that Dave Hunt is out, and adding Jim Hill as a plausible candidate.
Posted by: SecofState | Feb 7, 2008 1:02:59 PM
Also, I have to say that I love the Novick idea. It's very unrealistic that either Novick or Merkley will beat Smith (not to be a downer, but let's face the facts for a minute), but he would have a great shot at Hooley's seat. People are so impressed with Novick and I'd love to see him in there.
Posted by: BCM | Feb 7, 2008 1:04:59 PM
Kari, I don't understand. Steve Novick is going to be busy running against Sen. Smith, how could he possibly do two races at once?
Disclosure: I have nothing to disclose. I do not work for or support any candidate in the senate race.
Posted by: Nate Currie | Feb 7, 2008 1:07:19 PM
This is going to be a tight race anyway, let's not make it any harder by nominating a carpetbagger. So who actually lives in this district? Presumably Clem, Courtney, Evans, and the Schraders. Looking at a map seems to suggest that most of MacPherson's district is in CD5, but I couldn't be sure (the SoS's interactive map is just awful). I have no idea where Kroger lives, but it seems likely he's in CD1 or 3. As for the SoS candidates, they all appear to be well outside. Anybody got real scoop on who, of the likely candidates, really lives in CD5?
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 1:09:23 PM
All of the people I've mentioned above live in Oregon's 5th - except Steve Novick.
Posted by: bigblue | Feb 7, 2008 1:12:29 PM
I've heard that former state rep, and former Willamette University president, Bryan Johnston, is considering a run.
Posted by: Kevin | Feb 7, 2008 1:14:49 PM
Along the same lines as a possible Novick run (i.e., outside of the district)... Ben Westlund might make a good candidate too.
Posted by: Pete Forsyth | Feb 7, 2008 1:17:17 PM
Nate, gotta toot my own horn just a little – I made maps of state Senate districts, they're on Wikipedia's article on the Senate. Haven't gotten around to the House districts yet. But, I'm pretty sure Macpherson's is in CD5 -- he's in Lake O., which I'm pretty sure is all in CD5. Not sure about others.
On the R side, I keep wondering if Molly Bordonaro's gonna resurface when she comes back from Malta…but boy, I hope not.
Posted by: Ben DuPree | Feb 7, 2008 1:58:44 PM
How about Metro President David Bragdon? He said he's not running for anything, anywhere in 2008, but would he reconsider in light of this retirement?
Posted by: backbeat12 | Feb 7, 2008 2:23:54 PM
Novick as a carpetbagger?
Nice try Kari. Evans or Schrader sound like good bets....or Hill if he'd do it.
Posted by: Pat Ryan | Feb 7, 2008 2:36:48 PM
Hill may be a towering intellect, great fundraiser, and other complimentary things too numerous to list, but by golly, last time he said he was gonna run, no actual campaign ever materialized. Never was able to figure that one out.
Metsger would have to move, and I'm guessing, given his beautiful homestead in his hometown of Welches, he'd be reluctant to do so.
I'd love to see either of the Schraders jump in, but if they don't, I'd go with Clem or Evans.
********
Puts me a four favorites.......
Posted by: Tom Civiletti | Feb 7, 2008 2:39:08 PM
Anyone heard from Tom Bruggere recently?
Since Kari mentioned Novick, how about Merkley?
Posted by: Perplexd | Feb 7, 2008 2:48:22 PM
Maybe Sean Penn should run. I mean seriously people, how about limiting the potential field to people who actually live in the district?
Posted by: bdunn | Feb 7, 2008 2:57:23 PM
I haven't talked to Brian Clem but his daughter was born about two weeks ago which doesn't really seem to be a indicator for a possible candidacy. But if he did I'd drop out of school to help him out.
I broke down why everybody else on the list besides the Schraders, Johnston and Evans is a good bet not to run at Forward Oreogn.
Its a little long so I didn't want to post it all here but essentially, Hunt, and Mac said no already, Jim Hill is still in debt from 06, Kroger's CV plays better as a AG.
Posted by: backbeat12 | Feb 7, 2008 3:02:51 PM
Clearly the best solution is to run John Frohnmayer. Take out the senate candidate with the most gravitas and experience.
Posted by: Michael Arrington | Feb 7, 2008 3:07:21 PM
I'd like to see some Oregon style "Joementum" with Joe Baessler from the Bus Project, currently working with AFSCME. Joe's Michigan roots (if I'm remembering correctly) may very well line up with this district that I've spent hardly any time in.
Joe, if you're reading this, consider me a full time volunteer.
Posted by: Pat Ryan | Feb 7, 2008 3:07:59 PM
Isn't Frohnmayer currently dedicating his efforts toward ensuring another term for Gordon Smith?
Posted by: Taylor M | Feb 7, 2008 3:19:12 PM
I thought this seemed obvious, but wouldn't Bill Bradbury think about a run? I haven't heard his name anywhere. He lives in Salem and his Secretary of State term is up in 2009. He has statewide name recognition from his 2002 Senate campaign against Gordon Smith as well.
Also, Kari- if you're going to recommend Steve Novick as a possible candidate for Congress, you should disclose up front that he is running against your client for Senate. I think your connection belongs in the recommendation itself, not at the end of the article.
And as always, anyone but Kevin Mannix.
Posted by: leinad | Feb 7, 2008 3:19:58 PM
I'd like to see some Oregon style "Joementum" with Joe Baessler from the Bus Project.
RUN JOE RUN!
Kick-off in a bunny suit???
Posted by: Glen HD28 | Feb 7, 2008 3:25:10 PM
I nominate Pavel Goberman as the Republican candidate for CD5. He currently lives in Aloha (CD1) but I would gladly pay his bus fare down to Valsetz
Posted by: Ernie D | Feb 7, 2008 3:59:38 PM
Taylor M, Kari did disclose above about working for Jeff Merkley, Steve Novick's opponent.
Kurt Schrader is not up for election this year and is a good fit for the 5th district, especially with the Republican registration edge.
It's unlikely Kevin Mannix would rum. He wouldn't have the power he craves being one of 435...and in the minority.
Posted by: Genie Uebelacker | Feb 7, 2008 4:00:14 PM
Tom Civiletti mentioned Tom Bruggere. No one seems to take the bait, but he was the senate contender against Smith once, and was the owner of Mentorgraphics (an offshoot of Microsoft). Good guy, is a strong Democrat. Lives in Wilsonville. Any comments?
Posted by: Deborah Barnes | Feb 7, 2008 4:12:41 PM
I would love the possibility of working on either of the Schrader campaigns. Both are great political leaders. I also would love to see Courtney go for it. As someone who has worked with all three of the folks mentioned, I know how hard each of them would work on behalf of Oregon.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 4:22:11 PM
I've posted an update. Macpherson is out. I've also added Bryan Johnston, who is reportedly considering a run.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 4:26:24 PM
I thought this seemed obvious, but wouldn't Bill Bradbury think about a run?
Bill Bradbury is a resident of Bandon, Oregon - which is in DeFazio's district, and where he served as a State Senator.
Of course, that doesn't preclude a run, especially since he (like many statewide officials) has temporarily relocated to Salem for the duration of his term in office.
Posted by: John Calhoun | Feb 7, 2008 4:41:26 PM
As others have said before, anyone not currently living in the district will not be well received by the voters. It is tough enough being a Democrat in the district let alone a 'newbie'. Same goes for most of the progressive names like Novick. This is a district that needs a lot of "down home" sensibilities and a long history as a resident. Evans, Schraders, and Clem meet that requirement.
Posted by: LT | Feb 7, 2008 5:26:40 PM
Here's a comment
"Anyone heard from Tom Bruggere recently?"
OH PLEEEASE! Do you really want Mike Erickson in Congress?
Bruggere ran one of the most incompetent campaigns I have ever seen. Why do you think we have Gordon Smith in the US Senate?
As someone who worked on the very first 5th District primary (one of the most issue-oriented, civil primaries I can remember) I want to second this:
Posted by: John Calhoun | Feb 7, 2008 4:41:26 PM
As others have said before, anyone not currently living in the district will not be well received by the voters. It is tough enough being a Democrat in the district let alone a 'newbie'. Same goes for most of the progressive names like Novick. This is a district that needs a lot of "down home" sensibilities and a long history as a resident. Evans, Schraders, and Clem meet that requirement.
<<
Paul Evans would be my first pick, Kurt my second, not sure that Brian Clem the father of an infant would want to run, never met Martha Schrader. Peter Courtney ran before over 20 years ago and I supported him back then.
To win in the 5th District, one needs to appeal to Salem and Marion County, to Clackamas County, and way over to the coast. Even if Steve Novick owned a home in the 5th District I would advise against a run because he comes across as more Portland than 5th District.
Yes, it is true about the marriage thing. Denny Smith divorced and remarried while in Congress, Kopetski divorced, in one term Jim Bunn divorced and then married the chief of staff who he paid that high salary, and Darlene divorced.
Posted by: E4 | Feb 7, 2008 6:21:52 PM
I've heard rumors that BOLI Commissioner Dan Gardner was interested in running for Congress if Oregon were to get another Congressional seat. This could be an opportunity for him to get a seat without having to wait.
Posted by: Tab | Feb 7, 2008 6:49:51 PM
I'd like to think that during a time when the first female president is more than a possibility that a list like this one could have a few more women on it. The Portland city council looks like it's going to stay all male, Multnomah county has turned in that direction. Now the entire state congressional delegation?
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 6:55:07 PM
Another update: John Kroger is out, per his campaign manager.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 6:56:43 PM
Tab... I agree. Any suggestions?
The two women legislators in the 5th District are Jean Cowan and Betty Komp. I've been told that it's unlikely that they're interested -- though I haven't confirmed that directly.
E4... Dan would be a great candidate. At the moment, he resides in Blumenauer's district. Though, as I've noted above, that's not a legal impediment.
Posted by: PolkCo. | Feb 7, 2008 7:11:37 PM
We definitely love Paul Evans and Rep. Brian Clem here in Polk Co. and Salem generally.
Paul was a great candidate, Mayor and community leader. He has lots of volunteers and donors from his last race, great national connections and has the fire in the belly!
Brian also had both a great grassroots and well funded campaign and just recently was the main spokesperson appearing on behalf M49 in Marion/Polk/Yamhill counties, all of which passed the measure with 60%+ of the vote.
Our county farm bureaus in the Mid valley are all alot happier with the local Democrat office holders than the Republicans at the moment due to M49 and could be crucial to winning in November.
Posted by: Harry | Feb 7, 2008 7:41:28 PM
"The two women legislators in the 5th District are Jean Cowan and Betty Komp."
------
What about the woman State Rep from Corvallis... no, not the meth addict, her replacement... Gesler? Is that part of Corvallis inside the district?
Posted by: Nick Wirth | Feb 7, 2008 8:15:44 PM
Some outside updates to the speculation:
The Oregonian reports that both Kurt and Martha Schrader, as well as Paul Evans are all indeed considering a run. On the republican side, interested parties include Mannix and Reps Boquist and Brunn.
PolitickerOR reports that Dave Hunt has talked with the house dems in the district; Macpherson, Clem, and Komp, and supposedly none of them are interested in running. As noted above, Johnston is said to be interested.
Posted by: torridjoe | Feb 7, 2008 8:24:42 PM
What about someone like Larry Galizio, who holds down a very swingy Tigard district?
Obliquely calling for Novick to drop out of the race by March 11--classy!
Posted by: JTT | Feb 7, 2008 8:54:12 PM
I'm surprised that Kitzhaber hasn't been mentioned yet...
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 9:12:42 PM
Sara Gelser is in DeFazio's district. Larry Galizio is in Wu's district. Either would make an excellent member of Congress.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 10:26:47 PM
Kitzhaber represented Douglas County, DeFazio's district, in the State Senate. Today, he's registered to vote in SW Portland, in Wu's district.
Posted by: Pete Forsyth | Feb 7, 2008 10:31:00 PM
I'd rather see Kitzhaber as Surgeon General or in another cabinet post. Or as governor in 2010. His talents would be somewhat wasted in the House, IMHO.
Posted by: t.a. barnhart | Feb 7, 2008 10:34:53 PM
Sara may actually live in CD5; she's north of Corvallis a few miles, on the way to Crescent Valley HS. the 4/5 dividing line is really weird; they do a yin-yang thing in Corvallis so Hooley gets OSU and Defazio UO -- they didn't want both in 1 district.
Sara's kids are way too young anyway. it's tough enough being a State Red (now Asst Majority Leader). she's likely to be governor at some point, but i think she'd like her family to grow up first. or at least all get thru elementary school.
Major Paul Evans. in January 2009, he would be there to make sure our troops were coming home -- and that there'd be no need, i hope, to send the 3500 Oregonians scheduled to go over next March -- including my son.
Posted by: sloppy | Feb 7, 2008 10:57:24 PM
What about Brian Newman, the ex-Metro councilor who left to work at OHSU? Congress pays pretty well, right?
Posted by: verasoie | Feb 7, 2008 11:46:40 PM
Kitzhaber? No way.
He already didn't want to go to DC as a Senator when the job would have easily been his, there's no way he'd go as a "lowly" congressman.
Nope, but there's a very strong chance he'll be Governor again in 2010.
Posted by: chris | Feb 8, 2008 12:00:31 AM
Go Mike Go!!!
For the first time in over 12 years the 5th district have a wonderful opportunity to see a true leader represent them in the 5th district.
The fact that no top tiered Democrat candidate is rumored to be willing to run against Mike, shows weakness on the part of the DPO. Kind of reminds me of the current US senate race.
Posted by: LT | Feb 8, 2008 12:11:12 AM
"True leader"? Darlene wasn't? Mike Kopetski wasn't?
"Go Mike Go" for an unknown (what has Mike done?) isn't convincing at least to this person who has been actively involved in multiple 5th Dist. campaigns.
Posted by: verasoie | Feb 8, 2008 12:18:14 AM
Mike Erickson will be the Mitt Romney of the CD5, he's going to spend a pile of his own money and not even end up as the nominee!
Word is that Brian Boquist and another Republican legislator from the district are going to jump in, and they have a much stronger constituency than Mike does and will beat him on that alone.
And neither of them can self-finance, so the NRCC will end up having to shell out tons of money to lose a close race (just like what will happen with McCain, though I don't expect the Presidential election to be especially close).
This may end up being a gift in disguise, diverting NRCC and other Republican money into a losing cause, and possibly costing them a couple of state legislators in the process.
Posted by: LT | Feb 8, 2008 12:33:21 AM
My respect for Josh Kardon's political savvy just declined. This was on Jeff Mapes blog:
"This is probably the only race where their bench comes close to ours," said Kardon. "The only potential candidate we could run with high name recognition across the district is Steve Novick and I have no idea if he has any interest."
Oh, Steve lives in the 5th District and not in Portland?
Democrats are a team with a "bench" and the residents of the 5th District need not be consulted because people at the national level will choose the candidate from the "bench"?
Isn't that the sort of nonsense which gave us Bruggere as a nominee and Gordon Smith elected US Senator the year Darlene was first elected to Congress?
It would be very interesting if the nominees turned out to be Evans and Boquist--2 Iraq vets of different parties. And if Kardon doesn't know Evans is the former Mayor of Monmouth who taught Jackie Winters what a truly contested election is like (look at the Polk Co. results) and that Boquist ran for Congress once before and gave a speech on a House resolution which makes me want to put him in a room with McCain and have him respond to the McCain soundbites like "have to stay there for 100 years" or "failure in Iraq would be catastrophic", that just means Kardon is out of touch with Oregon's 5th District. And if anyone who reads this knows Kardon, please let him know that remark sounds clueless!
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 8, 2008 1:38:10 AM
Sara may actually live in CD5; she's north of Corvallis a few miles.
Not according to the voter file. She's in 4.
Brian Newman. We have a winner! He's in the 5th District, though I suspect he's very happy in his dream job at OHSU.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 8, 2008 1:40:40 AM
The fact that no top tiered Democrat candidate is rumored to be willing to run against Mike, shows weakness on the part of the DPO.
Puh-leeze. Obviously, you're not hanging out where the rumors are running rampant. There are plenty of Democrats considering the race. (Did you even read the post above?)
As for the Republicans... I just posted my speculations.
Posted by: Andrew Plambeck | Feb 8, 2008 2:00:47 AM
Kari,
Your attempts at downplaying Steve Novick's ability to obtain the Democratic nomination (as opposed to your employer) for Senate are unproductive and fracturing for the Democratic Party. Yes, it is important for Oregonians to run a solidly Democratic contender in the 5th CD. Yes, it is important to beat Gordon Smith in 2008.
What you are ignoring is the fact that Steve Novick has beaten Jeff Merkley in every poll taken during this race, and that he continues to build uncanny grassroots support (as opposed to pretend grassroots support) around not only the state, but the entire country. As I have said before, I would have absolutely no hesitation in supporting Jeff Merkley for the United States Senate, were Steve Novick not running.
But he is running. He is ahead in the polls. He is working his ass off for the nomination. He is pounding pavement around the state. And he is going to take on Gordon Smith in a big way. We finally have a candidate who will fight for the things we have been wanting our elected officials to fight about for too long. Steve Novick will be a senator who will pour his heart and soul into every piece of legislation he sponsors. He will fight for the issues that are important to Oregonians. I have no reservations about supporting Steve Novick for the United States Senate. None at all.
Posted by: Andrew Plambeck | Feb 8, 2008 2:21:08 AM
I forgot to add a great debt of gratitude to Congresswoman Hooley. She has represented those within and without her district for years as a potent and integral voice on the Hill. I wish her the best in her future endeavors and I express my greatest hope that a strong Democratic contender steps up to fill her sneakers.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 8, 2008 2:45:12 AM
OK, I've so far ignored all the potshots taken at me about the Novick thing.
But I'll just say this: The state capitol was running wild with speculation today about whether Steve Novick could/should/would run for Hooley's seat.
I didn't make it up, or pull it out of my ass. I would have been remiss in writing this up for our readers if I didn't include the one candidate on everyone's lips in Salem.
Frankly, I would LOVE to see both Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick in Congress. Wouldn't you?
Posted by: Stephanie V | Feb 8, 2008 7:38:23 AM
I'd love to see Steve Novick in the US Senate, personally.
If Jeff Merkley wants to move to Lake Oswego and run for Congress I will be happy to send him a contribution.
Posted by: Pat Malach | Feb 8, 2008 7:58:18 AM
"(Novick) would also likely get lots of support from individuals and organizations that would love to see an end to the primary battle in the U.S. Senate race."
Translation:
If you let Jeff Merkley have a free ride to the Senate nomination, we'll help you try and carpetbag a Congressional seat.
Is that really what the Democratic "brains" are thinking and the way they do business.
That explains a lot. Thanks for that insight, Kari.
Posted by: backbeat12 | Feb 8, 2008 8:04:50 AM
Which person is the most progressive and would be most likely to push Pelosi and the gang to do the right thing? Which candidate will be the most likely to cave to the pretend Democrats. Which candidate is the most like DeFazio or Earl?
Thanks for the information!
Posted by: backbeat12 | Feb 8, 2008 8:09:26 AM
Kari, you may not have pulled the idea out of your ass, and you may be just trying to lay out all of the possibilities. But give me a break. Did you grow up in this state like I did? Did you grow up in a mid-Willamette Valley mill town, for example? The politicos and their staff down in Salem might get all worked up over this possibility, but it is politically ridiculous. If I still lived down there I'd tell any Portland candidate to shove it. Not. An. Option. And very offensive to those who live in the District.
So please move on. I really don't know much about these candidates and would like the new person to go out to Washington and kick butt, not cave to the blue dogs. Which candidate is the most progressive? Thanks.
Posted by: Pat Ryan | Feb 8, 2008 9:17:09 AM
would like the new person to go out to Washington and kick butt, not cave to the blue dogs. Which candidate is the most progressive? Thanks.
I, on the other hand, would like a good solid progressive that can actually get to 50%+1. In my mind, that narrows the field considerably.
So again, Schraders (either of the two). Both are pretty well known and liked by their constituents.
Paul Evans. The relationship to the Hooley org, the military and civilian record of service, and the look and feel.
I've had a chance to work with the Schraders over the years, and have followed Evans with interest, and have also done Walkies for him in the last cycle. Any of the three would be very good for the state, for progressives, and would build on Hooley's carefully crafted record of achievements.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 8, 2008 9:43:53 AM
Hey, I'm not pushing Steve Novick here. I'll leave that to others. I'm just reporting what the conversations are.
There is one bit of information that's worth adding to the conversation. Steve Novick lives exactly twelve city blocks from the 5th Congressional District. I won't reveal his home address on a public blog... but he literally lives twelve blocks away.
How far north does the 5th Congressional extend? Put it this way. When you ride the OHSU tram, when you board at the bottom of the hill, you're standing in Hooley's District. (At the top, you're in Wu's.)
Sure, the district goes all the way south to Corvallis and all the way west to Tillamook, but it includes a big chunk of Portland, too.
(And, frankly, that's the part of the district that would allow it's U.S. Representative to be more progressive.)
Posted by: Faolan | Feb 8, 2008 9:45:40 AM
To be fair Kari It would have been better if you had said that either Novick or Merckley could legitimately go for the seat.
When you only mentioned Novick it seems like a totally politically motivated nudge. You should be above that. Just disclosing who you work for is not enough. You need to act fair as well.
In fact, please inform me if I'm wrong, but isn't that Merckley's district?
Posted by: Taylor M | Feb 8, 2008 9:55:47 AM
Re: Novick
Kari-
I don't think anyone's surprised that Steve Novick's name would be floated for Darlene Hooley's C-5 seat. Like you said, there are good (albeit not convincing) reasons to consider him: he's presently in a statewide primary campaign against a more traditional Dem, he's got federal money in the bank, etc. But I think a lot of us just felt that the way you mentioned him as a C-5 candidate seemed like a way to stuff your client's exciting, progressive, and viable challenger into a non-competitive box. Like I said before, the disclosure that you work for Merkley belonged with the suggestion for Novick itself- when you suggest other jobs for your opposition, it's that important.
The bottom line is that although Novick for C-5 makes sense for Merkley and Democratic Kumbaya-ing, it doesn't make sense for Steve, and it doesn't make sense for the district. Steve is a flourescent and quirky guy who is custom made for liberal, urban NW politics. C-5 covers some of the most rural and suburban areas of Western Oregon, and the fact is that it's a swing district that needs someone from the area to pose an honest, homegrown challenge to the local GOP candidates.
Lastly, not only does a Novick to C-5 scenario not make sense for him and for the district, it doesn't make sense for the Democratic Party. A lot of us are looking forward to a Senate primary contest between Jeff and Steve. I think the two of them respect each other and are ideologically separated enough to have a great discussion about the future of the Oregon Democratic Primary. Personally I'm looking forward to it.
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | Feb 8, 2008 9:58:46 AM
Neither Novick nor Merkley live in CD5. Both are in Blumenauer's district. Just wanted to clear that up for those who weren't sure.
Part of CD5 is in Multnomah County, though. The bulk of the county is Blumenauer, but we have portions of Hooley's and Wu's districts as well.
Posted by: Robert G. Gourley | Feb 8, 2008 10:00:10 AM
It is curious why Jeff Merkley's face isn't among those seen above - after all he was talked into the Senate race which means giving up the pleasure of a strong Democratic majority in the legislature. Seems like such a gamble deserves a better chance to win.
Posted by: Faolan | Feb 8, 2008 10:02:48 AM
Never mind. My bad. Merckley is in Multnomah county. Not sure why I thought he was from further south.
Posted by: Steve Maurer | Feb 8, 2008 10:17:16 AM
backbeat12: The politicos and their staff down in Salem might get all worked up over this possibility [of Steve Novick running for Darlene's seat], but it is politically ridiculous.
If it's so politically ridiculous, why is it any less ridiculous for him to run for Senate? The C5 district may not be the absolute heart of Portland, but it ain't Pendleton either.
So yes, it's clear Steve has a much better chance of winning it than he does the whole State.
Posted by: Jenni Simonis | Feb 8, 2008 10:27:04 AM
Steve:
Maybe because Steve doesn't live in the district, which wouldn't be received well by voters.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 8, 2008 10:48:25 AM
Another update: Brian Clem is out.
Posted by: LT | Feb 8, 2008 11:00:11 AM
Steve M, with all due respect, if your member of Congress dropped out, would you want Peter Buckley or Sara Gelser or Jean Cowan to move to your congressional district? In saying Steve should move into a district where he does not currently live to run for Congress, that is what you are saying.
Posted by: Steve Maurer | Feb 8, 2008 11:14:59 AM
I think you misread my point, LT. Steve Novick does indeed have a better chance of winning the 5th CD than he does the State.
1% is more than 0%
Posted by: LT | Feb 8, 2008 11:17:22 AM
OK, Steve, point taken. But look at the new post Kari did with the maps on his "fighting 5th" topic.
It is time for people who don't live in the 5th district to have a little geographic awareness.
Posted by: torridjoe | Feb 8, 2008 11:48:27 AM
So Steve, if Novick's chance in the state is 0%, does that make Merkley's shot less than zero, considering that he seems to be running behind Novick, if anything? IIRC the Riley breakouts right, even with a high undecided vote, on the coast and in east OR, the ONLY Dem respondens
said they favored was Novick. Nobody even mentioned another candidate.
Posted by: Steve Maurer | Feb 8, 2008 2:14:45 PM
I know you really like to hang your hat on that poll, Mark, but it's about 1/10th as accurate as a Zogby poll, if that.
When people are polled about something they really don't know about, they still feel compelled to come up with an answer. They strain to find any response that might seem even reasonably plausible for fear of seeming stupid otherwise.
That's just human nature.
That's why polls so far out are unreliable, why Rudy Giuliani led the GOP nomination race for over a year. And why the Riley poll you love so much (because it gives the answer you desperately want to believe) came out the way it did.
But guess what? When it comes time to vote, people read the voters pamphlet. About 35% of them use no source of information other than it. And it is going to tell three stories: Gordon Smith, a Senator pretending to be a moderate. Jeff Merkley, Speaker of the State House with a tide of legislative accomplishment to point to. And Steve Novick, Portland lawyer whose sole government experience is laudably winning an anti-pollution lawsuit. In New York. More than 20 years ago.
I understand you really want to believe that the majority of Oregon voters believe as you do, that the majority of the Democratic party is too conservative. (I think "corporatist" is the new in-word going around these days.) But guess what? Voters in the rest of the state aren't even in the same ballpark as you are. They worry about the Democratic party being too liberal, not vice versa. Above all, if they're going to take a risk in voting for someone other than the devil they know in Senator Smith, they want someone who actually has experience in a similar role. Like a successful legislator, for instance.
We've gone around this argument far too many times for me to ever delude myself into thinking I can talk any sense into you. But after your strongly held beliefs run into the concrete wall of reality in the primary, I hope you'll make a resolution to be a little more realistic. You know, realize that there is more to Oregon than the weirdest part of Portland.
Posted by: LT | Feb 8, 2008 2:43:41 PM
" if they're going to take a risk in voting for someone other than the devil they know in Senator Smith, they want someone who actually has experience in a similar role. Like a successful legislator, for instance."
People who think it would be cool to see the current Speaker of the House run against the US Senator who was once St. Sen. Pres. because there goes the experience card ("Gordon, you became a US Senator after being a legislative presiding officer, and my experience prior to the legislature is better than yours because...", Merkley could say) are not going to vote for Steve simply because he runs clever commercials and has worked behind the scenes in politics. They are more likely to trust someone they know who has seen Steve in person. And no blogger or campaign staffer can control that conversation.
And old timers might just want Steve to answer the question "Having worked on the Bruggere campaign, what lessons from that loss have you applied to your campaign?".
Posted by: Grant Schott | Feb 8, 2008 2:53:51 PM
Peter Courtney actually did run for the 5th CD in '84 and almost beat Ruth McFarland in the priamry. SHe had been the nominee in '82 againsts SMith. Having won time and again in Republican Marion COunty, he would have a good base, but 65 might be a little old to start a congressional seat. Maybe not, though, looking at McCain's age.
Although Paul Evans didn't win in '06, he ran well in a tough district and had over 1000 donors plus countless volunteers.
EMILYS List has pumped a ton of money into this seat, first for Catehrine Webber in '94 and then for Darlene's races, and they will want to keep it. Martha Schrader is probably their favorite.
Posted by: backbeat12 | Feb 8, 2008 3:08:10 PM
If it's so politically ridiculous, why is it any less ridiculous for him to run for Senate? The C5 district may not be the absolute heart of Portland, but it ain't Pendleton either.
So yes, it's clear Steve has a much better chance of winning it than he does the whole State.
Well, because the Senator represents the whole state, and the congressional person represents their district. Did you grow up in this state like I did? Do you think someone living near Wah Chang really wants to be represented by someone who does not live in the district? It is just crazy talk. The rep should live in the district. Period.
I'm not saying Novick can win the state for Senate. I've got no idea. I'm leaning Novick right now but frankly I think Frohnmayer would be the best man to represent the entire state. Especially if he is sincere about universal health care being in the Constitution.
Posted by: Miles | Feb 8, 2008 3:22:56 PM
First, Steve, let me say that I agree with you that Merkley is going to win the nomination, hands down. And I'll bet cash money that Merkley loses the general to Smith. Why? Because this isn't true:
Above all, if they're going to take a risk in voting for someone other than the devil they know in Senator Smith, they want someone who actually has experience in a similar role.
They aren't going to abandon Smith for someone who is just like Smith, except a Democrat. I don't mean that disparagingly, because Merkley is going to be a fine Democratic Senator if he can get elected. But he's way too vanilla to beat a well-financed, moderate incumbent. Even with the collapse of the Republican party, that's not enough to beat Smith.
Would Novick beat Smith? Probably not. But in my view, he has a better chance than Merkley because the only way to beat Smith is with a quirky, off-beat campaign. Smith wouldn't even take Novick seriously until it was too late, until Novick's intellect and humor had become so infectious that people just rallied him to a victory of, oh, about 300 votes.
Posted by: torridjoe | Feb 8, 2008 3:30:45 PM
Well Steve, I see after pulling the figures 1% and 0% entirely out of your ass, and having those figures exposed as, well, stupid--you appear to have learned your lesson by simply throwing more unsubstantiated claims and numbers out there, in a poor attempt to obscure unfortunate conclusions.
but it's about 1/10th as accurate as a Zogby poll, if that.
Considering that Riley uses AAPOR-approved methods and Zogby doesn't, you'll have to find something to back that up, Pancho. I assume you mean his internet polling anyway, since the Reuters/Zogby traditional phone polling has actually been doing OK in the primaries.
When people are polled about something they really don't know about, they still feel compelled to come up with an answer. They strain to find any response that might seem even reasonably plausible for fear of seeming stupid otherwise.
Human nature being generally the same no matter who is polling them, I'm not sure what your point is here. Certainly it's not that undecideds were pushed too hard; a 73% undecided rate makes that clear (and mirrors earlier polling by other sources that put those unclear about Novick and Merkley at around the 70% range). Unless you are trying to say that Novick voters are willing to speak up but Merkley voters aren't, I don't see how this affects the distribution of responses, such that it presents an even race at best, one in which Merkley is behind at worst.
"That's why polls so far out are unreliable,"
Well, no--that's not why they're "unreliable;" they're "unreliable" because they're not SUPPOSED to be reliable for the tool you want to use them for: forecasting. They are not future predictors; they are reflections of the point in time in which the surveying was done.
But you pointedly avoid making any assertions as to the quality of the Riley poll, and its ability to reflect a point in time status of the race. That makes your own fulminations a bunch of baseless assertions, doesn't it?
I don't know what you're attempting to project as my view of the Riley survey, but it sure looks wrong. What I've said is that the overwhelming conclusion is that the race is wide open, and if anything Merkley is running behind Novick (since we know with 95% certainty that Novick could be up by as much as 17 points, or Merkley up by as much as 11, and the majority of outcomes favor Novick). This result mirrors previous polling, which ALSO shows an advantage for Novick, albeit within the margin of error.
And Steve Novick, Portland lawyer whose sole government experience is laudably winning an anti-pollution lawsuit. In New York. More than 20 years ago.
If I'm not mistaken, Steve spent time working in the Oregon State Senate 10 years ago, and for the state Department of Education shortly after that. Perhaps you should go read a bio before tossing around baseless accusations like that.
I understand you really want to believe that the majority of Oregon voters believe as you do, that the majority of the Democratic party is too conservative. (I think "corporatist" is the new in-word going around these days.) But guess what? Voters in the rest of the state aren't even in the same ballpark as you are. They worry about the Democratic party being too liberal, not vice versa. Above all, if they're going to take a risk in voting for someone other than the devil they know in Senator Smith, they want someone who actually has experience in a similar role. Like a successful legislator, for instance.
I'm sure you have citations for at least SOME of this? Cause otherwise it looks an awful lot like more anal leakage, source wise. And you seem to have the trend for "change vs experience" pretty much backwards. I'd be happy to show you very recent polling data showing a strong momentum among Oregon voters for change.
But after your strongly held beliefs run into the concrete wall of reality in the primary, I hope you'll make a resolution to be a little more realistic. You know, realize that there is more to Oregon than the weirdest part of Portland.
Thank goodness pollsters are smart enough to ask questions outside of Portland! Otherwise we'd be left to the substanceless ruminations of folks like you.
Posted by: torridjoe | Feb 8, 2008 3:34:07 PM
"Merkley is going to win the nomination, hands down."
Those hands are going to have to come from somewhere, and right now they're being sat upon. Even in a room full of machine politicians, the straw poll at DPO Super Tuesday was an essentially even affair--just five votes separated them. DC is not impressed.
Posted by: David Bragdon | Feb 8, 2008 3:39:03 PM
Not me. Brian Newman!
Posted by: Steve Maurer | Feb 8, 2008 5:09:48 PM
A bunch of Portland activists are "machine politicians" !
A straw poll is in any way believable.
Mark, you crack me up. Spin that any harder any you'll throw out your back along with your logic.
All that straw poll showed was that Mr. Novick couldn't even win in the most liberal, least pragmatic, territory in the entire state. What, he couldn't get an extra dozen people to throw the thing his way?
I mean geez, even Ron Paul manages to win internet polls.
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Feb 8, 2008 5:37:19 PM
Why exactly does mentioning Steve Novick represent some kind of covert slam against him? I'd really like to hear that tortured logic. Folks, you're starting to look seriously unhinged.
As for the seat, it will be an interesting test of Democratic strength. A number of the names on the list are very strong, and despite what should be a pitched battle in the fifth, we should be able to win it.
Posted by: Miles | Feb 8, 2008 8:29:09 PM
Why exactly does mentioning Steve Novick represent some kind of covert slam against him?
Simply because Merkley wasn't mentioned for the same seat, even though they're both outside the district. No more, no less.
Posted by: doretta | Feb 8, 2008 8:30:49 PM
Kurt Schrader is a perfect fit for the 5th.
Both he and Martha are really nice people though and I'm not sure I'd wish the congressional lifestyle on them.
Posted by: A woman's place is in the House | Feb 8, 2008 8:46:32 PM
Why is this list so short on women? Do we really want an all male federal delegation?
Posted by: LT | Feb 8, 2008 8:49:43 PM
All those discussing a current US Senate candidate running in the 5th District, imagine this.
Paul Evans and Kurt Schrader and a US Senate candidate (I won't get into a debate about which one) in a town hall setting in Salem or Molalla or Dallas or somewhere in Lincoln County.
The US Senate candidate (who is from Portland) would do a better job understanding the concerns of the local 5th District residents than either Paul or Kurt because....
If you can't complete the sentence, please keep the debate over US Senate candidates out of this discussion of the 5th District.
Posted by: LT | Feb 8, 2008 8:52:19 PM
I've never met Martha Schrader, and I don't know of any other woman who would have the experience Darlene had when she ran for Congress. The issues are federal, the campaign schedule grueling, and if you win you get the joy of coming home from DC most weekends. If "woman's place" has someone to suggest, go ahead.
Posted by: Kevin | Feb 8, 2008 10:23:37 PM
Would Novick beat Smith? Probably not. But in my view, he has a better chance than Merkley because the only way to beat Smith is with a quirky, off-beat campaign.
Miles, perhaps you ought to talk to some folk who are right-of-center and take the time to actually try to understand what motivates them before trying to claim that there's only one way to beat Smith.
Just about half an hour ago I was talking with some friends over pizza at Godfather's and we were talking politics for part of the meal. Except for one guy's wife, I was the only progressive person at the table.
An older guy, a self-declared conservative NAV, sitting across the table from me stated bluntly that he'd voted for Smith twice and that he is going to vote for Merkley this year. Not because of Jeff's politics per se but rather because he feels that Smith lied to him - says that Smith's statement about the need to get out of Iraq was pure BS and nothing more than a political stunt. His reasoning for wanting to vote for Jeff was mostly about Jeff being competent and a viable candidate. He knows who Novick is, btw.
Posted by: Miles | Feb 8, 2008 11:31:25 PM
Miles, perhaps you ought to talk to some folk who are right-of-center and take the time to actually try to understand what motivates them
What makes you think I haven't? You think there are 50,000 people like the guy you had pizza with. I think there are 50,000 people like the ones I have pizza with. That's all.
Posted by: backbeat12 | Feb 8, 2008 11:51:11 PM
Why exactly does mentioning Steve Novick represent some kind of covert slam against him? I'd really like to hear that tortured logic. Folks, you're starting to look seriously unhinged.
No Steve, it is just patently ridiculous.
I mean, how DARE Kari not mention the truly perfect candidate for the job, Ted Kulongoski? No wait! How about Darcelle? What about Mayor Potter? Oh....Thara Memory!!! The perfect guy to represent the district!
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 9, 2008 12:01:35 AM
Why is this list so short on women? Do we really want an all male federal delegation?
A good damn question. Any suggestions? The only other women legislators in the district are Betty Komp and Jean Cowan. I've been told that they're not interested - though I haven't confirmed that.
I'm not clued in to the politics of the Marion, Tillamook, Lincoln, or Benton County Commissions -- any Democratic women there?
And of course, this entire list is made up of elected officials. No reason an activist, business, or community leader couldn't run and win. Or even someone completely unheard of. (Just ask David Wu.)
Posted by: torridjoe | Feb 9, 2008 12:13:00 AM
"A bunch of Portland activists are "machine politicians" !"
Were you there? The activists were sorely outnumbered by the Democratic Party establishment, although quite obviously both attended. At $50 a head, however, this was an insider's gig.
In any case, this seems an odd response for you to direct as an answer to my questions of you, to support your previous assertions on polling science. It makes one think you don't have an answer, thus you simply move on to a different set of unsupported, baseless assertions as a way of avoiding that truth.
So how many polls showing Merkley doing no better than Novick--at best!--do you need before you come to accept it? Would three be enough? Or to put another way, how many will it take without even ONE to support your position, before your position becomes too embarrassing to maintain publically?
Posted by: torridjoe | Feb 9, 2008 12:19:46 AM
"Why exactly does mentioning Steve Novick represent some kind of covert slam against him?"
Because it's a ridiculous think to suggest. WHY on EARTH would he quit a competitive Senate race to start a House race in a district where he doesn't even live? There is no practical purpose to suggest it, unless what you'd really like to see is Novick out of the Senate race. The obvious implication is the suggestion that he's not qualified to run for Senate--or, alternately, that he's TOO qualified and threatens to upset some folks' precariously positioned apple carts.
The slam was fairly overt. What's covert is the discomfort Novick must be giving Team Merkley, for them to start floating ideas to get him out of the race. What's next, a concerned call from Howard Dean?
Posted by: Robert G. Gourley | Feb 9, 2008 6:12:09 AM
Benton County Commissions
All Democrats, two gals and a guy.
We want to keep 'em in harness.
I looked, and Merkley's picture still hasn't shown up above. Probably doesn't want to be seen to close to that good lookin' guy, Steve Novick.
Posted by: Stephanie V | Feb 9, 2008 7:57:48 AM
Let's put it this way: it's pretty damned patronizing and borderline dishonest to say to a US Senate candidate in a competitive primary, "Here, check out this House seat in a district you don't live in! You stand a much better chance of winning THAT!"
I mean, COME ON. Sure it would be convenient for Jeff Merkley if Steve Novick decided to run for something else. Guess what? It would also be convenient for Steve Novick if Jeff Merkley decided to run for something else. That's obvious.
Of the two, why does only Steve's name get floated for that scenario? That's obvious too: because it's Jeff's internet guy doing the floating.
For once in your life you're completely transparent, Kari. I'm not sure you intended it, but congratulations.
Posted by: woman's place is in the house | Feb 9, 2008 8:27:26 AM
This points to the poor job we do of recruiting and encouraging women to run. Surely there are at least as many smart, capable women in the Fighting Fifth that happen to be Democrats as men. There are some smart, capable women on the R list. Without a woman on the D side, some Ds might cross party lines to keep a woman in the delegation.
LT writes: The issues are federal, the campaign schedule grueling, and if you win you get the joy of coming home from DC most weekends.
And why is a woman less suited for that than a man, LT?
Posted by: Robert G. Gourley | Feb 9, 2008 9:05:14 AM
For once in your life you're completely transparent, Kari. I'm not sure you intended it, but congratulations.
Yeah, I'm wondering when we'll get the real full disclosure, "Okay you got me!" Probably not a good idea to hold our breath.
That's nothing compared to the dilemma facing my union, which to endorse? Steve's family, both brother and father working for our union - brother's tragic passing last May - Steve's helped us a lot in our battles with those who want us gone.
Jeff, a stalwart supporer of our issues, working cheek and jowl with some of our most deserving members. I'm not sure if he'd be in this race if he hadn't been pressured by the national folks.
What to do? This is a very tough choice for us.
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Posted by: SecofState? | Feb 7, 2008 12:42:10 PM
What about one of the Sec of State candidates? They can't all win. Avakian? Metsger? Walker?