Who might run in Hooley's seat? Some wild speculation.
First, the bad news. As we told you earlier, Darlene Hooley is retiring. Twelve years after winning her congressional seat, and ousting a Republican incumbent, she's calling it quits.
Democrats are right to be worried. The seat has a Republican registration edge of 5000 voters. Until Hooley won the seat in 1996, the seat flipped back and forth between the parties. It's a slightly better district now, but it's easily Oregon's toughest swing district -- and should catapult into the top 10 most competitive in the country.
Next, the good news. It's a good year for her to retire. Nationally and locally, Democrats are fired up and Republicans are demoralized. Big national money will be flowing into Oregon for the U.S. Senate race and the presidential campaign.
Over on the Republican side, Mike Erickson was already prepped to run - but expect the national GOP to try and find a stronger candidate. Erickson's ethical challenges and questions about his past don't likely make him a top-tier candidate (though his bankroll helps.)
One possibility? Kevin Mannix. He's been stymied in two runs for Attorney General and two runs for Governor - but he once represented part of the 5th in the Legislature. The mid-Willamette Valley has always been a strong area for him. Of course, he wouldn't be able to rake in six-figure checks from his sugar-daddy, Loren Parks - the Las Vegas sexual hypnotist.
I'm sure there are other Republicans, but I'm more interested in the Democrats. Who are the plausible candidates? Keep in mind that filing day is March 11 - and we're less than 15 weeks from the primary election.
[A full disclosure moment: Lots of people mentioned below are current or former clients of my company. The specifics are at the end of the post. As always, I speak here only for myself.]
The most likely Democratic candidates, in alpha order:
- Rep. Brian Clem. He's a rookie state legislator, but defeated a Republican incumbent with 62% of the vote in 2006. His legislative district is the swingiest part of Hooley's swing district. He's a solid progressive that's made inroads with the agricultural community that's so important to the 5th district. Watch the video of his argument for Measure 49. UPDATE: I've confirmed with Brian that he's not running for Congress in 2008. He's out.
- Senator Peter Courtney. He's the Senate President, and seems happy as a clam there. But, he's been rumored to have been interested in the congressional seat for years. He represents the same swing part of the 5th District as Brian Clem above. He's got a solid record of achievement and a strong profile that make him an attractive candidate for the 5th District, but he's older than any of the others mentioned here.
- Paul Evans. He's an Iraq War veteran, a former small-town mayor, and was a state senate candidate in 2006. He's currently the Governor's military policy advisor. Check out his profile on BlueOregon. He considered a run against Gordon Smith this year, but ultimately declined. His wife, Joan Mooney Evans, is Hooley's chief of staff.
- ADDED: Jim Hill. He's a former state treasurer and two-time candidate for Governor. He also represented the Salem area in the State Senate. There's a great guest column on BlueOregon that outlines his positions back in 2006. (Thank you to commenter Mari Anne for the suggestion.)
- Rep. Dave Hunt. He's the House Democrats' majority leader, and is widely expected to replace Jeff Merkley as Speaker in 2009 (if the Democrats retain control.) There's a good profile of him in the Oregon City News. Before he was a legislator, he was Hooley's district director. UPDATE: Jeff Mapes reports, and I've confirmed: Dave Hunt is out. He's staying in the Lege.
- ADDED: Bryan Johnston. Reports from PolitickerOR indicate that former Rep. Bryan Johnston is considering a campaign. He was the dean of the business school at Willamette and an interim university president. In the state legislature, he also represented the Salem area.
- John Kroger and Rep. Greg Macpherson. The two men are locked in a tough primary race for Attorney General - and might see a congressional race as a better alternative. Neither could take their state funds to a federal race, but they've already got strong campaign operations up and running. UPDATE: PolitickerOR reports, and I've confirmed: Greg Macpherson is out. He'll keep on running for AG. UPDATE: John Kroger is out. I've confirmed with his campaign manager.
- Senator Kurt Schrader. A long-time member of the Senate, Schrader is a big-animal veteranarian by profession. He's generally considered one of the more moderate members of the Senate, and has long been rumored to be considering a run for higher office.
- Martha Schrader. She's a popular Clackamas County Commissioner, and is expected to run for re-election this year. When Hooley ran for Congress, she too was a Clackamas County Commissioner - so it's been done before. Prior to serving at the county, she was a legislative aide for her husband, Kurt.
Of course, by Oregon law, candidates for Congress don't have to live in the congressional district. You just have to be 25, a citizen, and a resident of Oregon. So, it could be anyone.
Which leads to one more tantalizing possibility:
- Steve Novick. Unlike any of the above candidates, Novick has substantial funds in a federal campaign account - and a small but fervent national following. Were he to jump into the congressional seat, he'd quickly be the favorite. He'd also likely get lots of support from individuals and organizations that would love to see an end to the primary battle in the U.S. Senate race.
The bottom line? It's going to very tough for anyone to fill Darlene Hooley's well-worn sneakers - either as a candidate or a member of Congress.
Stay tuned. I'll share more when I hear it.
[OK, my full disclosures: I was on Darlene Hooley's staff in 1996. Best campaign I ever worked on. Brian Clem, Greg Macpherson, and Martha Schrader are consulting clients of my company. Paul Evans and Dave Hunt have used some of our technical services. And Steve Novick is running against another of my clients, Jeff Merkley. No, I'm not working for anyone who is running for the 5th District. Not yet, anyway. As always, I speak here only for myself.]
|
February 7, 2008 |
Kari Chisholm | Comments (165 so far)
| Share on Facebook |
Sponsored Advertising
Comments
Posted by: Mari Anne | Feb 7, 2008 12:43:56 PM
Jim Hill of course. He knows the district well. Sits on the National NARAL Board. He has good name recognition in the area. Jim would be a great candidate. He could hold the seat for the Dem's. I am truly sorry to lose Darlene but would be wowed if Hill would step up.
Posted by: Pete Forsyth | Feb 7, 2008 12:47:53 PM
Kari, I'm interested in the financial issues you raise, can you expand? First, you say Loren Parks couldn't fund a Mannix run -- is this because of Federal limits on campaign finance that don't apply to state offices like AG and Governor?
Second, you say that Kroger or Macpherson (and presumably anyone in the SoS race, like Vicki Walker or Rick Metsger, who I think both are in the 5th) couldn't move their funds into a Federal race. What restricts that? State law? Federal law? Constitutional? Statutory?
Finally, anybody entering this race oughtta be pretty secure in his/her home life…if Wikipedia's right, none of the Reps in the 5th have yet gotten through without a divorce! Eesh!
Posted by: RogerD | Feb 7, 2008 12:48:26 PM
I would think there is at least one other tantalizing possibility. Jeff Merkley. The same set of facts that makes Novick a strong possibility would also set the stage for Merkley to make a bid for Hooley's seat. Just to put that out there.
Disclosure: I am not working for any of these possible candidates, nor am I a decided supporter of any except John Kroger (who will be an outstanding AG).
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 12:54:19 PM
Fascinating suggestions. None of the SOS candidates live in the 5th, and none of them could take their money with them. So, possible, but unlikely.
Pete... On the money: The federal individual donation limit is $2300 per election. So, Loren Parks could donate $2300 twice. Which is a far cry from the $300,000 checks that Mannix is accustomed to picking up from him.
Similarly, you can't move state money into federal because of those limits. A state committee can donate to a federal campaign - I think it's either $5000 or $10,000 - but you can't move the whole enchilada.
Posted by: SecofState | Feb 7, 2008 12:55:08 PM
This might be a perfect time for Metsger to jump in. He seems to be in second place. Has he ever expressed an interest in DC?
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 1:00:51 PM
I've updated the post above with the news that Dave Hunt is out, and adding Jim Hill as a plausible candidate.
Posted by: SecofState | Feb 7, 2008 1:02:59 PM
Also, I have to say that I love the Novick idea. It's very unrealistic that either Novick or Merkley will beat Smith (not to be a downer, but let's face the facts for a minute), but he would have a great shot at Hooley's seat. People are so impressed with Novick and I'd love to see him in there.
Posted by: BCM | Feb 7, 2008 1:04:59 PM
Kari, I don't understand. Steve Novick is going to be busy running against Sen. Smith, how could he possibly do two races at once?
Disclosure: I have nothing to disclose. I do not work for or support any candidate in the senate race.
Posted by: Nate Currie | Feb 7, 2008 1:07:19 PM
This is going to be a tight race anyway, let's not make it any harder by nominating a carpetbagger. So who actually lives in this district? Presumably Clem, Courtney, Evans, and the Schraders. Looking at a map seems to suggest that most of MacPherson's district is in CD5, but I couldn't be sure (the SoS's interactive map is just awful). I have no idea where Kroger lives, but it seems likely he's in CD1 or 3. As for the SoS candidates, they all appear to be well outside. Anybody got real scoop on who, of the likely candidates, really lives in CD5?
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 1:09:23 PM
All of the people I've mentioned above live in Oregon's 5th - except Steve Novick.
Posted by: bigblue | Feb 7, 2008 1:12:29 PM
I've heard that former state rep, and former Willamette University president, Bryan Johnston, is considering a run.
Posted by: Kevin | Feb 7, 2008 1:14:49 PM
Along the same lines as a possible Novick run (i.e., outside of the district)... Ben Westlund might make a good candidate too.
Posted by: Pete Forsyth | Feb 7, 2008 1:17:17 PM
Nate, gotta toot my own horn just a little – I made maps of state Senate districts, they're on Wikipedia's article on the Senate. Haven't gotten around to the House districts yet. But, I'm pretty sure Macpherson's is in CD5 -- he's in Lake O., which I'm pretty sure is all in CD5. Not sure about others.
On the R side, I keep wondering if Molly Bordonaro's gonna resurface when she comes back from Malta…but boy, I hope not.
Posted by: Ben DuPree | Feb 7, 2008 1:58:44 PM
How about Metro President David Bragdon? He said he's not running for anything, anywhere in 2008, but would he reconsider in light of this retirement?
Posted by: backbeat12 | Feb 7, 2008 2:23:54 PM
Novick as a carpetbagger?
Nice try Kari. Evans or Schrader sound like good bets....or Hill if he'd do it.
Posted by: Pat Ryan | Feb 7, 2008 2:36:48 PM
Hill may be a towering intellect, great fundraiser, and other complimentary things too numerous to list, but by golly, last time he said he was gonna run, no actual campaign ever materialized. Never was able to figure that one out.
Metsger would have to move, and I'm guessing, given his beautiful homestead in his hometown of Welches, he'd be reluctant to do so.
I'd love to see either of the Schraders jump in, but if they don't, I'd go with Clem or Evans.
********
Puts me a four favorites.......
Posted by: Tom Civiletti | Feb 7, 2008 2:39:08 PM
Anyone heard from Tom Bruggere recently?
Since Kari mentioned Novick, how about Merkley?
Posted by: Perplexd | Feb 7, 2008 2:48:22 PM
Maybe Sean Penn should run. I mean seriously people, how about limiting the potential field to people who actually live in the district?
Posted by: bdunn | Feb 7, 2008 2:57:23 PM
I haven't talked to Brian Clem but his daughter was born about two weeks ago which doesn't really seem to be a indicator for a possible candidacy. But if he did I'd drop out of school to help him out.
I broke down why everybody else on the list besides the Schraders, Johnston and Evans is a good bet not to run at Forward Oreogn.
Its a little long so I didn't want to post it all here but essentially, Hunt, and Mac said no already, Jim Hill is still in debt from 06, Kroger's CV plays better as a AG.
Posted by: backbeat12 | Feb 7, 2008 3:02:51 PM
Clearly the best solution is to run John Frohnmayer. Take out the senate candidate with the most gravitas and experience.
Posted by: Michael Arrington | Feb 7, 2008 3:07:21 PM
I'd like to see some Oregon style "Joementum" with Joe Baessler from the Bus Project, currently working with AFSCME. Joe's Michigan roots (if I'm remembering correctly) may very well line up with this district that I've spent hardly any time in.
Joe, if you're reading this, consider me a full time volunteer.
Posted by: Pat Ryan | Feb 7, 2008 3:07:59 PM
Isn't Frohnmayer currently dedicating his efforts toward ensuring another term for Gordon Smith?
Posted by: Taylor M | Feb 7, 2008 3:19:12 PM
I thought this seemed obvious, but wouldn't Bill Bradbury think about a run? I haven't heard his name anywhere. He lives in Salem and his Secretary of State term is up in 2009. He has statewide name recognition from his 2002 Senate campaign against Gordon Smith as well.
Also, Kari- if you're going to recommend Steve Novick as a possible candidate for Congress, you should disclose up front that he is running against your client for Senate. I think your connection belongs in the recommendation itself, not at the end of the article.
And as always, anyone but Kevin Mannix.
Posted by: leinad | Feb 7, 2008 3:19:58 PM
I'd like to see some Oregon style "Joementum" with Joe Baessler from the Bus Project.
RUN JOE RUN!
Kick-off in a bunny suit???
Posted by: Glen HD28 | Feb 7, 2008 3:25:10 PM
I nominate Pavel Goberman as the Republican candidate for CD5. He currently lives in Aloha (CD1) but I would gladly pay his bus fare down to Valsetz
Posted by: Ernie D | Feb 7, 2008 3:59:38 PM
Taylor M, Kari did disclose above about working for Jeff Merkley, Steve Novick's opponent.
Kurt Schrader is not up for election this year and is a good fit for the 5th district, especially with the Republican registration edge.
It's unlikely Kevin Mannix would rum. He wouldn't have the power he craves being one of 435...and in the minority.
Posted by: Genie Uebelacker | Feb 7, 2008 4:00:14 PM
Tom Civiletti mentioned Tom Bruggere. No one seems to take the bait, but he was the senate contender against Smith once, and was the owner of Mentorgraphics (an offshoot of Microsoft). Good guy, is a strong Democrat. Lives in Wilsonville. Any comments?
Posted by: Deborah Barnes | Feb 7, 2008 4:12:41 PM
I would love the possibility of working on either of the Schrader campaigns. Both are great political leaders. I also would love to see Courtney go for it. As someone who has worked with all three of the folks mentioned, I know how hard each of them would work on behalf of Oregon.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 4:22:11 PM
I've posted an update. Macpherson is out. I've also added Bryan Johnston, who is reportedly considering a run.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 4:26:24 PM
I thought this seemed obvious, but wouldn't Bill Bradbury think about a run?
Bill Bradbury is a resident of Bandon, Oregon - which is in DeFazio's district, and where he served as a State Senator.
Of course, that doesn't preclude a run, especially since he (like many statewide officials) has temporarily relocated to Salem for the duration of his term in office.
Posted by: John Calhoun | Feb 7, 2008 4:41:26 PM
As others have said before, anyone not currently living in the district will not be well received by the voters. It is tough enough being a Democrat in the district let alone a 'newbie'. Same goes for most of the progressive names like Novick. This is a district that needs a lot of "down home" sensibilities and a long history as a resident. Evans, Schraders, and Clem meet that requirement.
Posted by: LT | Feb 7, 2008 5:26:40 PM
Here's a comment
"Anyone heard from Tom Bruggere recently?"
OH PLEEEASE! Do you really want Mike Erickson in Congress?
Bruggere ran one of the most incompetent campaigns I have ever seen. Why do you think we have Gordon Smith in the US Senate?
As someone who worked on the very first 5th District primary (one of the most issue-oriented, civil primaries I can remember) I want to second this:
Posted by: John Calhoun | Feb 7, 2008 4:41:26 PM
As others have said before, anyone not currently living in the district will not be well received by the voters. It is tough enough being a Democrat in the district let alone a 'newbie'. Same goes for most of the progressive names like Novick. This is a district that needs a lot of "down home" sensibilities and a long history as a resident. Evans, Schraders, and Clem meet that requirement.
<<
Paul Evans would be my first pick, Kurt my second, not sure that Brian Clem the father of an infant would want to run, never met Martha Schrader. Peter Courtney ran before over 20 years ago and I supported him back then.
To win in the 5th District, one needs to appeal to Salem and Marion County, to Clackamas County, and way over to the coast. Even if Steve Novick owned a home in the 5th District I would advise against a run because he comes across as more Portland than 5th District.
Yes, it is true about the marriage thing. Denny Smith divorced and remarried while in Congress, Kopetski divorced, in one term Jim Bunn divorced and then married the chief of staff who he paid that high salary, and Darlene divorced.
Posted by: E4 | Feb 7, 2008 6:21:52 PM
I've heard rumors that BOLI Commissioner Dan Gardner was interested in running for Congress if Oregon were to get another Congressional seat. This could be an opportunity for him to get a seat without having to wait.
Posted by: Tab | Feb 7, 2008 6:49:51 PM
I'd like to think that during a time when the first female president is more than a possibility that a list like this one could have a few more women on it. The Portland city council looks like it's going to stay all male, Multnomah county has turned in that direction. Now the entire state congressional delegation?
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 6:55:07 PM
Another update: John Kroger is out, per his campaign manager.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 6:56:43 PM
Tab... I agree. Any suggestions?
The two women legislators in the 5th District are Jean Cowan and Betty Komp. I've been told that it's unlikely that they're interested -- though I haven't confirmed that directly.
E4... Dan would be a great candidate. At the moment, he resides in Blumenauer's district. Though, as I've noted above, that's not a legal impediment.
Posted by: PolkCo. | Feb 7, 2008 7:11:37 PM
We definitely love Paul Evans and Rep. Brian Clem here in Polk Co. and Salem generally.
Paul was a great candidate, Mayor and community leader. He has lots of volunteers and donors from his last race, great national connections and has the fire in the belly!
Brian also had both a great grassroots and well funded campaign and just recently was the main spokesperson appearing on behalf M49 in Marion/Polk/Yamhill counties, all of which passed the measure with 60%+ of the vote.
Our county farm bureaus in the Mid valley are all alot happier with the local Democrat office holders than the Republicans at the moment due to M49 and could be crucial to winning in November.
Posted by: Harry | Feb 7, 2008 7:41:28 PM
"The two women legislators in the 5th District are Jean Cowan and Betty Komp."
------
What about the woman State Rep from Corvallis... no, not the meth addict, her replacement... Gesler? Is that part of Corvallis inside the district?
Posted by: Nick Wirth | Feb 7, 2008 8:15:44 PM
Some outside updates to the speculation:
The Oregonian reports that both Kurt and Martha Schrader, as well as Paul Evans are all indeed considering a run. On the republican side, interested parties include Mannix and Reps Boquist and Brunn.
PolitickerOR reports that Dave Hunt has talked with the house dems in the district; Macpherson, Clem, and Komp, and supposedly none of them are interested in running. As noted above, Johnston is said to be interested.
Posted by: torridjoe | Feb 7, 2008 8:24:42 PM
What about someone like Larry Galizio, who holds down a very swingy Tigard district?
Obliquely calling for Novick to drop out of the race by March 11--classy!
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 9:12:42 PM
Sara Gelser is in DeFazio's district. Larry Galizio is in Wu's district. Either would make an excellent member of Congress.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Feb 7, 2008 10:26:47 PM
Kitzhaber represented Douglas County, DeFazio's district, in the State Senate. Today, he's registered to vote in SW Portland, in Wu's district.
Posted by: Pete Forsyth | Feb 7, 2008 10:31:00 PM
I'd rather see Kitzhaber as Surgeon General or in another cabinet post. Or as governor in 2010. His talents would be somewhat wasted in the House, IMHO.
Posted by: t.a. barnhart | Feb 7, 2008 10:34:53 PM
Sara may actually live in CD5; she's north of Corvallis a few miles, on the way to Crescent Valley HS. the 4/5 dividing line is really weird; they do a yin-yang thing in Corvallis so Hooley gets OSU and Defazio UO -- they didn't want both in 1 district.
Sara's kids are way too young anyway. it's tough enough being a State Red (now Asst Majority Leader). she's likely to be governor at some point, but i think she'd like her family to grow up first. or at least all get thru elementary school.
Major Paul Evans. in January 2009, he would be there to make sure our troops were coming home -- and that there'd be no need, i hope, to send the 3500 Oregonians scheduled to go over next March -- including my son.
Posted by: sloppy | Feb 7, 2008 10:57:24 PM
What about Brian Newman, the ex-Metro councilor who left to work at OHSU? Congress pays pretty well, right?
Posted by: verasoie | Feb 7, 2008 11:46:40 PM
Kitzhaber? No way.
He already didn't want to go to DC as a Senator when the job would have easily been his, there's no way he'd go as a "lowly" congressman.
Nope, but there's a very strong chance he'll be Governor again in 2010.
Posted by: chris | Feb 8, 2008 12:00:31 AM
Go Mike Go!!!
For the first time in over 12 years the 5th district have a wonderful opportunity to see a true leader represent them in the 5th district.
The fact that no top tiered Democrat candidate is rumored to be willing to run against Mike, shows weakness on the part of the DPO. Kind of reminds me of the current US senate race.
Posted by: LT | Feb 8, 2008 12:11:12 AM
"True leader"? Darlene wasn't? Mike Kopetski wasn't?
"Go Mike Go" for an unknown (what has Mike done?) isn't convincing at least to this person who has been actively involved in multiple 5th Dist. campaigns.
Note: The presence of any individual above does not imply an endorsement by BlueOregon. The selection of faces shown is done by Facebook. Visit BlueOregon on Facebook.
Post a comment
Posted by: SecofState? | Feb 7, 2008 12:42:10 PM
What about one of the Sec of State candidates? They can't all win. Avakian? Metsger? Walker?