New Poll: Merkley 43%, Smith 41%
An internal poll from the Jeff Merkley campaign shows that the lead has changed in the U.S. Senate race - with a 2% lead for Jeff Merkley. The same poll showed a 9% lead for Smith in August, and a 10% lead for Smith in June.
The poll was conducted September 7-9 and included 702 interviews statewide. Margin of error, 3.7%.
Swing State Project has posted a memo from the pollster, Peter Brodnitz, that describes the findings:
Democrat Jeff Merkley has pulled ahead of incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith, despite being outspent by Smith by $3 million in direct campaign expenditures and by at least $1.5 million when spending by outside groups is included. In the race for Senate, Merkley leads by 2% - gaining 5 points in the past month, while Smith has lost 6% in the same time frame. Currently, 43% of Oregon voters support Merkley, 41% choose Smith, 6% support Brownlow, and 10% are undecided. ...Smith has failed to convince voters he can bring the change the country needs. One-third (32%) gives him a positive job rating, while 61% rate his performance negatively. Further, only 15% of undecided voters rate Smith’s job performance as Senator as excellent or good, and 70% rate it as fair or poor.
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September 12, 2008 |
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Comments
Posted by: David | Sep 12, 2008 3:22:14 PM
Open your wallets, progressives! Merkley can win this! Help him win!
Posted by: Greg D. | Sep 12, 2008 3:27:24 PM
Could the voters actually be waking up to the fraud and abuse that has been shoveled out by the Republicans for the past 8 years? God I hope so.
As I tell my moderate friends, regardless of whether Gordo or McCan't are nice guys or bad guys, the continued Repub control of federal administrative agencies is a disaster for our country. If you want the EPA to continue to be run by people who believe that dinosaurs never existed, vote Repub. If you want your kids taught in biology class that women evolved from Adam's extra rib, vote Repub.
If you have a brain, you can figure out what to do.
Posted by: torridjoe | Sep 12, 2008 3:44:47 PM
Does the campaign plan on releasing the survey, so that we can be confident these are not "informed" numbers in some way? Otherwise, you have to take it the same way you take any other internal poll--skeptically.
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Sep 12, 2008 4:36:36 PM
70% disapproval by undecideds and Smith is already trailing? Hoo boy, thatsa good news!
Posted by: Bill R. | Sep 12, 2008 7:54:23 PM
Actually people are more energized if they think a candidate has an actual shot at winning. So a poll like this should have an energizing effect. I have heard a lot by word of mouth about the utter revulsion at Smith's media campaign. He is really shooting himself in the foot. It is nauseating and stupid.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Sep 12, 2008 10:14:15 PM
Does the campaign plan on releasing the survey, so that we can be confident these are not "informed" numbers in some way? Otherwise, you have to take it the same way you take any other internal poll--skeptically.
I haven't asked but almost certainly not. As you know, campaign polling is entirely about actionable data -- and there's no strategic reason why you'd give away what messages you're testing.
And yes, you should take it skeptically, like any internal poll. But keep in mind that Pete Brodnitz was the 2007 "pollster of the year" from the American Association of Political Consultants. That's an award given by a bipartisan panel - and only one pollster a year gets it. His credibility is at stake here.
And as someone who has seen the full polling, I can vouch for it too -- these are the initial numbers, before any message testing. Of course, that's only worth whatever you think my credibility is worth.
Posted by: Kyle | Sep 14, 2008 9:04:16 PM
Merkley isn't going to win. If the money folks thought he could win the dollars would be in his campaign chest. Furthermore, a candidate with state wide name recognition should have run against Smith.
Posted by: torridjoe | Sep 14, 2008 11:11:31 PM
"And yes, you should take it skeptically, like any internal poll. But keep in mind that Pete Brodnitz was the 2007 "pollster of the year" from the American Association of Political Consultants. That's an award given by a bipartisan panel - and only one pollster a year gets it. His credibility is at stake here."
How could his credibility be at stake when we can't see his work? No one is going to remember an internal poll, whether Merkley wins or loses, so his credibility is absolutely NOT on the line. The only way it would be is if it were an independent poll.
Thanks for the reminder on your credibility, however. :)
Posted by: Bradford | Nov 18, 2008 2:58:58 PM
A lot of Democrats seem to think that McCain has given away the experience issue by picking Palin, but I think it's the opposite. If Democrats are mired in the tar of arguing whether Obama is as experienced as the Republicans' V.P. candidate, we are in a world of hurt.
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Posted by: Dena | Sep 12, 2008 2:59:47 PM
This makes me so nervous -- I hope people don't see this and think they no longer need to work for Merkley's victory! Or vote!