Obama: Right Where He Wants to Be
The just-released Gallup poll shows that John McCain has opened up a real lead on Barack Obama and cracked 50% for the first time in the election. Thanks to the surprise selection of Sarah Palin, the GOP base finally seems united and energized, and we're a little less than two months from the election.
I have no doubt that the Obama camp feels they've got McCain right where they want him.
Obama has run a campaign unlike any we've seen in recent memory. Every candidate enters the race with certain themes they want to emphasize, and a general strategy for winning. But they also respond to the fluid environment of the race, making adjustments and letting the strategy adapt to events. Not Obama. His campaign has had a far clearer sense of each major milestone in the campaign and how to hit it and has been far less responsive to the news cycle. This is unnerving to fans who wonder how Obama can continue to succeed despite losing more than its share of the news-cycle wars. It's because he continues to think of the war, not the battles. This week is going to be rough, but consider where the campaigns are now, and how in nearly every way Obama has set the rules of engagement.
1. Taking experience off the table. For the first three months of the general election, McCain wanted a debate about experience and judgment. He harped endlessly about the surge and mocked Obama's "celebrity," attempting to make him appear dangerously inexperienced. Obama addressed this by sticking to change as his own theme while burnishing his foreign policy cred. Traveling to Europe won him early praise but ultimately offered a GOP a news-cycle winning strategy. They mocked him as "the one"--essentially a Bono-like lightweight who could draw big crowds but couldn't sit across from world leaders. The problem was that he did sit across from world leaders. He made an over-enthusiastic speech to AIPAC, but meanwhile, his proposals on a timeline in Iraq became Iraqi and US policy. McCain mocked and blustered, but he failed to make any progress in the polls. Had McCain thought the experience issue was really his golden ticket, he wouldn't have selected Sarah Palin as his running mate. This was a clear admission that experience was a dead issue.
2. A change election. Having abandoned experience as the issue, McCain decided on "reform" as a proxy for Obama's "change." When he announced the selection of Palin, he highlighted her reform credentials, and at the GOP convention, both candidates made it a centerpiece of their speeches. This came at great cost, however--McCain was required to admit that, "We were elected to change Washington, and we let Washington change us." While this does highlight some of McCain's "maverick" work in the Senate, it sets the Obama campaign up to continuously compare McCain to Bush. Even more importantly, it sets up the election's home stretch to be...
3. A debate about issues. In the last two elections, Bush
managed to highlight the issues that underscored his strengths and
undermined his opponents. When he talked war, he made Dems seem weak.
When he talked tax cuts, he tagged them as elitist. When he talked
faith, he tagged them as secular. Obama has effectively removed these
arrows from McCain's quiver--and thanks to a little luck, he's got a
few of those double-dealing arrows of his own (seven
houses?--elitist!). Now that the campaigns are agreed that change is
the operable metric for judging the election, Obama can talk issues.
He began this in his acceptance speech, outlining exactly what he'll do
for America. McCain dodged the issue in his acceptance, and now Obama
is able to demand specifics.
Move crucially, it allows Obama to tie McCain's policies to Bush's. It was always going to be a little difficult to convince swing voters that McCain was the same as Bush--they just have too much bad blood. But McCain spent so much time in the primaries making sure that he was in accord with the Bush orthodoxy on the issues that he is now saddled with them. For the next two months, Obama can demand to compare proposals for change in terms of the issues America cares about: health care, the economy, foreign policy, and the environment. On issue after issue, Obama has the popular solution. Why else would "drill, baby, drill" have become the mantra in St. Paul? It's the only issue the GOP have a lead on.
The polls will suck for another week and then level off again as a tie. But as we head into crunch time, with debates looming and undecideds and swing voters finally starting to tune in, the fight will be about issues Obama has spent months hand-selecting. Right on schedule.
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September 8, 2008 |
Jeff Alworth | Comments (113 so far)
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Comments
Posted by: Kyle B | Sep 8, 2008 11:21:36 AM
Jeff,
what an interesting piece. I have to admit at first i was a bit hesitant on your logic, but after reading you have me convinced. There are so many great sound bites of McCain touting Bush's policies during primary season, and now he is resorting to a "change" message. The Dem's just need to take their time and when the moment is right give the Republicans some of their own medicine, a little attack!
Posted by: genop | Sep 8, 2008 11:43:31 AM
Talking points versus issue statements. I pray the electorate is smart enough to appreciate the difference.
Posted by: mlw | Sep 8, 2008 11:52:57 AM
After Palin's convention speech, let's not forget that Obama will have a lock on the "change politics" votes. Picking an Ann Coulter style conservative is hardly the way to convince people that you want to reach across the aisle. After 8 years of Rovian politics, does McCain really think that the answer is MORE partisanship?
Posted by: joseph | Sep 8, 2008 12:11:01 PM
Jeff
What a piece of worthless tripe. I thought the idea of running a campaign was to win not cede the lead to the competition and hope you can pull it out in the ninth inning. There is no guarantee that if Obama takes the high road and talks issues the democrats win. Anyway that kind of campaign has been run before and looked what happened. If the democrats are going to win they are going to have get down and dirty just like the republicans.
Posted by: Voice Over Guy | Sep 8, 2008 12:12:01 PM
The polls are joke This race will be a tough fight to the end but in my heart, Obama/Biden will win the White House but they need a strong showing in the debates which I think it will happen. Palen is no match for Biden but Obama and McCain will be a hard fight.
Posted by: Brian | Sep 8, 2008 12:12:24 PM
Wishful thinking. I think the reverse is true ... America wants change, not socialism. Also, expect Chicago politics/Biden to become more and more prominant in the advertising/national discussion. I don't think Obama expected this, I think it is shaping up as a nightmare scenario for them. You can keep hoping but I think a lot of America is seeing that the emperor has no clothes ...
Posted by: Brian | Sep 8, 2008 12:13:50 PM
Wishful thinking. I think the reverse is true ... America wants change, not socialism. Also, expect Chicago politics/Biden to become more and more prominant in the advertising/national discussion. I don't think Obama expected this, I think it is shaping up as a nightmare scenario for them. You can keep hoping but I think a lot of America is seeing that the emperor has no clothes ...
Posted by: Gregor | Sep 8, 2008 12:15:31 PM
palin is going to make a great FOX newscaster some day. She surely fits their mold. Can't you just see her between Karl Rove, G. Gordon Libby and Oliver North? I sure can. What gives me hope is watching their ratings spiral. I think some of the people are no longer fooled and some of the others won't be fooled for much longer.
Posted by: jonny bullet | Sep 8, 2008 12:18:45 PM
The change that McCain wants is to bash the intellectuals and any one that has European ideas[ap].Maybe you look different "foreign" I believe is the code word,your not a hockey mom ,soccer mom, NASCAR dad, you live in a city and your educated you have a world view and you think it takes a village to help raise your family,-ie schools, extended family, neighbors, friends, then your some how bad or on the fringe maybe even evil, dose that not give you that warm fuzzy feeling? Well be afraid very afraid.The right wing "Conservative" brings something else to mind,Germany a wounded war veteran who wrote a book and was a God fearing right wing conservative who found his country receptive because of their plight after a bitter war and bad economic times. The intellectuals, educated foreigners,ones that were liberal,and folks that didn't "share their values" NOT LIKE US. The Jews fit the bill, different religion, businessmen, intellectuals, liberal, not like us. This right wing group with it's leader invoked Gods name and went on a crusade to right many perceived wrongs and to settle old scores. The church blessed them and their weapons and they went out in Gods name to make the world in their image and well you know the rest.Fiction? Not hardly religion has no place in politics.It seems that to be a christian now we have to wrap our selves in the flag and if you don't you're bad,or unpatriotic, un American. But if You are a true Christian the Christ said give Ceasers things to Ceaser, and that His Kingdom was no part of this world he was not involved in politics. You don't have to be a Christian to be a patriot or pick up a gun for the military to be a patriot just like wrapping your self in the flag and the bible makes a bad person good or a patriot because it doesn't. That man in Germany was wrapped in his flag and the bible and was blessed by the church was he a good man?
Posted by: ORDem | Sep 8, 2008 12:20:24 PM
This race should've been over. No way Obama is anywhere near where he wants to be or should've been. Hello? Anybody home? Can we replace Biden with Hillary? None of this would've happened if Hillary was on the ticket (PUBs would've put up the old white guy instead the Dems did it) but Obama left the barn door open and the PUBS now shut it after their spunky filly ran out of the barn. Sadly, it's going to be a plain, old-fashioned barn burner at this point.
Posted by: LiberalIncarnate | Sep 8, 2008 12:39:24 PM
I do not entirely agree with the "flowery" opinion here. Unlike some pessimists on here, Obama still has a chance to win this, but this is in no way where I think the campaign should be considering all of the factors in play in this election so far, i.e. change, altering the course of the war and Republican cronyism, etc. While there is no doubt that this election was always going to be close (Americans are just too stupid for it not to be), the fact that Obama has fallen behind in some polls is truly disheartening.
Posted by: Greg D. | Sep 8, 2008 12:40:16 PM
I quit making predictions a long time ago, but I am fearful that the Dems have managed to blow one of the greatest political opportunities in the history of the USA.
As far as this post goes, it sounds a little bit like the old boxing story about what the fighter told his trainer just before he was knocked out - "I'm fine coach, I am letting him punch me in the head repeatedly so he will become over confident."
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Sep 8, 2008 12:44:47 PM
HAHAHA! Here come the GOP trolls... some openly admitting it ("socialism!"), some faking concern ("this should've been over").
Puhleeze.
Here's the short version of Jeff's post: Dear John McCain, we agree - this election is about change. Now, what sort of change do you propose? We're about universal health care, bringing our troops home, and fighting climate change. Whaddya got?
Posted by: KTDM | Sep 8, 2008 12:48:36 PM
Good article. As for ORDem, I have always been an Obama supporter (though I had a lot of trouble deciding between Obama and Hillary) and wanted Hillary to be the VP too, but I see Obama's logic. As long as Hillary fights for the Dems as she's promised to do, Obama has 2 very high profile surrogates rather than 1...almost as if he had two VPs. And Hillary can be probably more effective in a cabinet position or in the senate than as VP...think about it, she could still potentially be Obama's running mate in 2012 if he wins and the deck reshuffles a bit...I predict that as a result of the Palin pick the Dems can come a lot closer in Florida than we are right now in the polls, particularly if Hillary spends a LOT of time there. And Biden is one of our best bets to get the blue collar vote of Penn. and Ohio and Michigan. I DO think Obama should have done more to ingratiate himself to Hillary supporters before the convention though. Now we need her desperately, and I hope she recognizes how grateful many Dems like me will be if she really steps up to the plate here.
Posted by: ORDem | Sep 8, 2008 1:00:27 PM
I am not a GOP troll but a life-long Democrat who never got Obama fever. There are many of us who were not entirely sold on Obama and now given his bad judgement regarding the Biden pick over Hillary we have even further doubts. If Obama loses this election (which I hope he doesn't), it is all on Obama, the DNC and his campaign's failure to embrace Hillary as part of the ticket. I see no logic whatsoever in passing on Hillary except Obama was looking past this election and was thinking about his re-election instead. Supporters of Obama and this highly biased site need to wake up before it is too late.
Posted by: Tom Civiletti | Sep 8, 2008 1:09:25 PM
I agree with Jeff that the Palin pick weakens GOP ability to criticize Obama on experience. Whether that will lead to a campaigns based on discussion of important issues is another matter. Republicans shy away from such discussion because there is little honest they can say that appeals to anyone but their decidedly minority base.
There is no limit to the number of anti-Obama issues that can be manufactured, however. The important question is whether or not the media will do their job investigating charges and making their findings clear. Without a functioning Fourth Estate, democracy is illusory.
Posted by: Bill R. | Sep 8, 2008 1:13:56 PM
When the Rs start using "socialism" as their crutch, they are in trouble. Of course they consider Medicare and Social Security as "socialism." Bring it on.......
I partially agree Jeff. The analysis of the convention bounces is that it's a wash. After today the tracking polls will pretty much settle into something close to where it was pre-convention until the debates happen.
The framing of the election debate is there, but content is another matter. The Obama campaign needs to hammer home how much McCain/Palin are more of the extremist right wing Bush agenda. -Weaken and dismantle the necessary infrastructure of government and civil society, de-fund the safety net programs like social security, medicaid, and medicare, destroy the environmental and conservation protections, install more radical right wing activist judges, and carry out the extremist social agenda of James Dobson and others to overturn Roe v Wade and eliminate access to contraception and abortion services, and bring creationism into the schools. Palin's choice makes that clear.
But..... the "Change" needs to be more clearly and forcefully asserted by Obama/Biden to address the principle concern of the electorate, economic insecurity, by spelling out the plan and specifics to rebuild and restore our industrial base, the technological and transportation infrastructure.
The second big one is the need for health care security, and what a universal health care system of affordable health insurance for all would look like and cost, with no intervening govt. bureaucrat and choice of plans and phsicians.
***McSame is so weak on both counts.
Same old, same old... more tax breaks for the wealthy, less regulation of the stock market. Wheeeeee!
His health care program,
-eliminate tax free employer based insurance and substitute it with a tax credit of $2500 a year. Good luck people.. try going out and procuring comprehensive insurance on your own for $200 a month. Some good Harry and Louise ads on the utter devastation this plan would bring to your health coverage would be great!
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Sep 8, 2008 1:15:55 PM
Nothing gratifies quite so much as this:
Jeff, what an interesting piece.
and
Jeff - What a piece of worthless tripe.
Glad you liked--and hated--it.
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Sep 8, 2008 1:19:02 PM
ORDem, this isn't a thread about Hillary. That horse done been beat.
Posted by: nadja s | Sep 8, 2008 1:19:48 PM
Oh, puleeze. With respect, with all the good thinking you've done, you aren't taking it down to the fundamental level of name-calling.
Palin knows what she's doing. All she has to do is keep spewing. Who cares if she is lying or not? The media will print what she says. Note that she is targeting Obama. Why doesn't Biden target McCain? Why aren't there more screechers on the Democratic side? Why are we so nice?
Undecided voters don't think very hard about the issues. That's why they're undecided. So, what will they hear? Why, they'll hear Palin yapping about Obama! They'll hear Inhofe impugning Obama's patriotism! Will they hear the good, thoughtful words of Obama has he explains his positions? Naaah, they'll just eat up the garbage coming out of the mouth of the Republicans.
Time for some campaign manager to turn the Obama campaign upside down, and begin to attack McCain/Palin on their fossilized beliefs and exstremist personalities. That is what will win over voters to Obama.
Posted by: Bill R. | Sep 8, 2008 1:26:42 PM
@ nadja s
I think you are being heard. From Biden, today.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080908/ap_on_el_pr/biden_wisconsin
"Her views on everything from global warming to a host of other things, if they are as presented, they are pretty far out there," said Biden, Democrat Barack Obama's running mate, during a town hall-style meeting. "She's going to have to defend those positions."
Posted by: Kevin | Sep 8, 2008 1:28:31 PM
What's your goal here, ORDem?
So you never got Obama fever, whatever that is. Bully for you.
It's not going to change who has been chosen for his Veep.
The most you can accomplish with the venting of your spleen about Hillary is to poison the well. To what end? To help McCain get elected out of spite?
I seriously don't believe that Hillary would agree with what you're saying here. Not even a little bit.
Posted by: Bill R. | Sep 8, 2008 1:33:50 PM
Here are some more of Palin's extremist theocratic views:
( A rather kinky geo-political view of the world)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bruce-wilson/sarah-palins-churches-and_b_124611.html
Sarah Palin's churches are actively involved in a resurgent movement that was declared heretical by the Assemblies of God in 1949. This is the same 'Spiritual Warfare' movement that was featured in the award winning movie, "Jesus Camp," which showed young children being trained to do battle for the Lord. ..The movement is training a young "Joel's Army" to take dominion over the United States and the world.
.. Wasilla Assembly of God's Head Pastor Ed Kalnins whose sermons espouse such theological concepts as the possession of geographic territories by demonic spirits and the inter-generational transmission of family "curses". Palin has also been blessed, or "anointed," by an African cleric, prominent in the Third Wave movement, who has repeatedly visited the Wasilla Assembly of God and claims to have effected positive, dramatic social change in a Kenyan town by driving out a "spirit of witchcraft."
The Wasilla Assembly of God church is deeply involved with both Third Wave activities and theology.... Other major leaders in the movement have also traveled to Wasilla to visit and speak at the church.
The Third Wave is a revival of the theology of the Latter Rain tent revivals of the 1950s and 1960s led by William Branham and others. It is based on the idea that in the end times there will be an outpouring of supernatural powers on a group of Christians that will take authority over the existing church and the world. The believing Christians of the world will be reorganized under the Fivefold Ministry and the church restructured under the authority of Prophets and Apostles and others anointed by God. The young generation will form "Joel's Army" to rise up and battle evil and retake the earth for God.
Posted by: Marko | Sep 8, 2008 1:36:39 PM
Obama is going to have serious problems vs McCain in a debate. Defending his rhetoric with actual details on taxes and foreign policy issues is not what Obama wants to do. Can he take a rain check on the debates?
Posted by: torridjoe | Sep 8, 2008 1:37:00 PM
"here are many of us who were not entirely sold on Obama and now given his bad judgement regarding the Biden pick over Hillary we have even further doubts."
It's amazing how the trolling continues on this "shoulda picked Hillary" nonsense. You keep hearing it from people like Pat Buchanan, when what it really means is "we WISH he'd picked Hillary, so we could have had the divisive figure we needed to electrify people to the polls."
I see little evidence the race is tied, or particularly close. Tracking polls--particularly on the heels of the RNC convention--are not predictors of much. Scope the electoral college analyses; you'll see Obama is comfortably ahead, usually with 300 EVs projected or more. His positioning is MUCH better than Kerry's four years ago.
All of which doesn't even speak to Obama's formidable ground game and excess of funds compared to McCain.
Relax, chicken littles. I don't necessarily agree with the way Jeff justifies his thesis (expecting Americans to inform their way to his victory is indeed a dicey prospect), but in the end the result is the same: Obama is well positioned for the next 56 days. Be patient.
Posted by: torridjoe | Sep 8, 2008 1:40:28 PM
"Obama is going to have serious problems vs McCain in a debate. Defending his rhetoric with actual details on taxes and foreign policy issues is not what Obama wants to do."
Why not, for heaven's sake? His tax plan has been objectively analyzed as better than McCain's (in terms of broadest and deepest tax cuts at least, which is sadly all people care about), and he has been right on foreign policy while McCain has been badly wrong. The details are more damning than the rhetoric!
Posted by: Bill R. | Sep 8, 2008 1:53:00 PM
Here's Joe Biden on fire- in full attack mode of the McCain/Biden
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=955Y3NJTRIE&eurl=http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/
Some of these trolls who post here are pretty funny. They believe their own party's rhetoric.
Socialism???
And taxes.. oh.. let's have some more tax cuts for the wealthiest.. yeah, that's real defensible.
Obama is going to have an easy time with McCain on debating taxes. Even if McCain's not having one of his cognitive lapses.
Posted by: Kristin | Sep 8, 2008 2:00:41 PM
Great piece, Jeff -- thanks for the insight.
From Gallup today...in an article that analyzed the post-convention bounce...
"Since 1964, the first election year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces, there have been only two examples in which one candidate consistently trailed until the time of his party's convention, but took the lead after and never relinquished it. Those occurred in 1988 for the elder George Bush and 1992 for Bill Clinton."
One could argue that both Dukakis (1988) and George Bush, Sr. (1992) ran unskilled campaigns -- Obama won't fall into that trap.
One thing that gives me tremendous hope is the voter registration drives and GOTV efforts taking place not only in Oregon but in Ohio and Florida...there are 600,000 registered African American voters in Florida who didn't vote in 2004 and Obama's campaign is going door to door to ensure that they turn out. Kerry lost the state by a little over 400,000 votes...
Posted by: nadja s | Sep 8, 2008 2:15:54 PM
Bill R:
Sorry, but Biden is going to have to be a lot smarmier about his remarks. Really, we're talking going down into gutter territory.
Why can't he just say: "the governor is an extremist - - she belongs to an extremist church, holds extremist views about creationism, and is your basic socially conservative Republican pretending to be an newcomer. There is nothing new about the governor of Alaska. We've seen it all before."
Posted by: Mike Austin | Sep 8, 2008 2:41:34 PM
Wishful thinking. I think the reverse is true ... America wants change, not socialism.
You must be in the other one the two Americas that John Edwards was talking about than most of the country. On issue after issue, most of the country is lined up with the Democratic platform.
If Obama and the Democrats keep saying nice things about McCain, McCain will win. Democrats seem to believe that this is a more sophisticated version of a high-school debating society and that the better-reasoned, issues-oriented arguments will sway the voters.
The Democrats need to take off the gloves and start using brass knuckles with extreme prejudice. Sometimes you've got to go down into the sewer. That's where the rats are...
Posted by: Steve Hawley | Sep 8, 2008 2:43:49 PM
Obama's VP choice is going to sink him.
Biden is an old political hack with bad hair plugs - there's just no way to improve that. It's like putting lipstick on a pig.
Palin on the other hand is witty, intelligent and very pretty.
Of course, if the dems loose this election - we'll hear endless stories of voter fraud, when in actuality it boils down to a bad VP pick...
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Sep 8, 2008 3:19:34 PM
Biden-bashers behold: a Palin gaffe on Freddie/Fannie. The first car in what will no doubt be a long train. It's not major, but it's something Biden would never have said because of course he actually knows what Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are.
It's an election, folks, not American Idol.
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Sep 8, 2008 3:20:54 PM
That last comment about Idol was not directed at Palin, FWIW, but comments like this one "Biden is an old political hack with bad hair plugs." I just don't think American voters are that stupid.
Posted by: Harry Kershner | Sep 8, 2008 3:21:30 PM
Re: "He made an over-enthusiastic speech to AIPAC, but meanwhile, his proposals on a timeline in Iraq became Iraqi and US policy."
Over-enthusiastic? Is that what you're calling anti-Arab bigotry these days? Ask any Palestinian if Obama was "over-enthusiastic". Where are those of you who were claiming a few months ago that Obama was going to "change" the lack of even-handedness in US treatment of Israel-Palestine? Don't you realize how vulnerable this makes us?
Furthermore, there is no Iraq "timeline", and there won't be under either an Obama or a McCain administration, not with respect to removal of all corporate and military personnel and dismantling of all hardened bases.
And your conflation of the Maliki government with the Iraqi people is Bush-like bullshit. The Iraqi people have not been consulted, and your acceptance of that shows contempt for democracy. They want us out, just as we would want them out if they had invaded and occupied our country.
Posted by: Bill R. | Sep 8, 2008 3:33:50 PM
@Steve Hawley
Oh yeah.. "pretty, intelligent and witty". It's true Biden is older, and grey, and has been a senator a long time with an established record and credibility on both sides of the aisle in foreign relations and domestic issues. (Ridiculing his baldness and hair plugs, that's pathetic!) He is beloved by the blue collar working people across the country as a loyal advocate.
But that doesn't compare to Palin and her radical secessionist ideas, her end time apocalyptic vision of geo-politics, her rejection of science in favor of creationism, her opposition to universal health care, her denial of abortion services to the victims of rape and incest, and her well established alliance with the anti-union box stores of the country. One thing Biden hasn't done. He didn't take public money to install a tanning parlor at considerable expense, in his senate office, as Palin did in her governor's mansion. I think he has his ethics right and his values right. But he's not tanned and pretty like Palin. If you have been to Juneau, you don't tan, you rust. I might add if Obama or Biden used public money to put a tanning parlor in their Senate office, you can imagine what the press would do with that.
Posted by: Bill R. | Sep 8, 2008 3:35:59 PM
Just the kind of Ad we need to have now from the Obama/Biden campaign. Let's call them on their s**t.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBtbG5xjFBY&eurl=http://www.americablog.com/
Posted by: torridjoe | Sep 8, 2008 3:40:23 PM
How do we know she's witty? Because she read someone else's speech? And we damn sure know she's not intelligent (cf Fannie/Freddie for a new example!).
Talk about biting onto the GOP frame! The woman's an empty pantsuit. (If she wore them...)
Posted by: Gregor | Sep 8, 2008 3:51:54 PM
What we ought to do is show how the Democrats are about people helping each other through their government and Republicans are about corporations helping themselves through our government.
The Achilles' heel of McCain is the economy. The brass ring for the Republicans time and again is to privitaze social security. Too many boomers are going to be counting on that. The question they need to be asked is, how is their 401k looking these days. There is no spinning that will reduce the holes that have been dug into people's 401ks in the past two years. There are less then two months left.
It's the economy stupid!
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Sep 8, 2008 4:42:14 PM
One thing that gives me tremendous hope is the voter registration drives and GOTV efforts taking place not only in Oregon but in Ohio and Florida...there are 600,000 registered African American voters in Florida who didn't vote in 2004 and Obama's campaign is going door to door to ensure that they turn out. Kerry lost the state by a little over 400,000 votes...
And not only should thse voter reg drives give you generalized hope, but they should leaven any concern you might have about these "likely voter" polls.
Throughout the primaries, Obama proved that he draws lots and lots of votes from "unlikely" voters... people new to the process, and folks who've not voted in years.
McCain, on the other hand, doesn't have much of that sort of appeal at all. Maybe among moose-hunting hockey moms... but that ain't much of a demo.
Posted by: RW | Sep 8, 2008 5:05:35 PM
Nadja S, much as I hate it, I am beginning to think your way -- time for the attack dawgs to come out, and now. I think the Obama campaign has been smart about sitting tight for a little and letting things perc without obvious firetending from their hands.
I felt pretty smug about the Palin Debacle, but I'd forgotten about the years I'd spent in Badass Oklahoma with the honest to god rednecks, and I'd rather forsworn thinking about the fundagelicals I've known in my time. Do NOT understimate the drive of this part of the population, nor their willingness to tithe McCain and Palin into power.
Listening to the rowdy howling of swing state audiences, I felt rather anxious today. It is true, these are the ones who are even lazier than I about scholarship. Whoever cements bullet points the most insistently will leave the stain on the rug, here. This election is NOT a sure thing, and it's hopeful media will be organized and clear about their business.
Non-neocons DO need to fight like hell. Perhaps Obama and Team could manage to throw horse diamonds but not actually lay down in the stall. Clinton is doing a swell job of maintaining strength in her voice and class in her utterances. The media seems somewhat to be staying up with the barren few anti-Sarah talking points available, but the content is already stultifyingly repetitive.
I wish for Kucinich, or an Edwards-in-a-Time-Machine, but here we are with who we've got. And I really do not want McCain/Palin.
I'm at that tipping point, I suppose. Off me arse and go fight.
Posted by: Chuck Butcher | Sep 8, 2008 7:03:07 PM
Jeff,
I don't know that Obama has McCain just where he wants him, you never want the opponent ahead - by whatever measure. I do agree that Obama is very powerfully positioned to swat McPOW. How he will go about it is something he and his pros will decide. I know that his decisions so far have worked and they haven't been gutter dives. I know how to take off the gloves and I do, but I am not running and I couldn't run as an Obama type candidate and he has to.
What people tend to forget is that a candidate defines himself (or lets someone else do it - badly) and turns away from that definition at serious risk and an almost certain loss of the enthusiastic base.
Posted by: Katy | Sep 8, 2008 7:08:54 PM
I know people aren't gonna like this comment but I still wish he had picked Hillary for VP. I'm not saying he won't win with Biden, and I hope he does, but it would have been less stressful.
I haven't read through any of the comments so if I'm being redundant I apologize. Seems like we need to stop making fun of Palin and start talking about why she's (and of course McCain) so bad for America right now.
We also need to make sure the newly registered actually vote on election day - and we need to make sure the young people vote like crazy.
Posted by: cc | Sep 8, 2008 7:34:12 PM
Great point, Kari - the 18-22 year old voters aren't usually polled either because they have no voting record in general elections.
Katy - it's over. Selecting HRC would have opened another can of worms to deal with. Not saying I don't like Hillary - I do. Very much. But we would have different issues had she been selected. The flip-side of that is that Sarah Palin probably wouldn't have been the VP pick. Either way - we can't turn back the clock. This is our ticket, let's focus on it.
And I agree with Jeff - I think we're in a great spot. I didn't like the news of the bump but have faith McCain will lose his edge if not before the debates then absolutely after. McCain is a gaffe-master. He is a horrible public speaker with a teleprompter and even worse without. Nevermind the stature difference. God bless televised debates! I can't wait.
Posted by: Ted | Sep 8, 2008 7:37:48 PM
One party system folks... Enjoy the puppet show. Spinal Tap will be playing for you next. "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever..."
Posted by: Brendan Steinhauser | Sep 8, 2008 7:44:58 PM
Check out this new book about Barack Obama:
http://www.amazon.com/Who-REAL-Barack-Obama-generation/dp/1438906056/ref=sr_1_14?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1220927361&sr=1-14
Posted by: Oregon Independent | Sep 8, 2008 7:59:25 PM
As much as I hate hatchet politics, the selection of Palin as the McCain campaign's pit bull was a stroke of genius. Neither Obama nor Biden can attack her without it looking like men beating up on a woman, and her one and Palin's role in this campaign is going to be to take this into the gutter and throw the GOP base its red meat.
My hope is that the Obama camp hires a tenacious and attractive female spokesperson who speaks Republican -- think Ainsley Hayes from West Wing -- to do nothing but do attacks on and responses to, Sarah Palin.
Maybe Carla should apply for the job. It totally plays to her strong suit.
Posted by: Buckman Res | Sep 8, 2008 8:21:58 PM
”Had McCain thought the experience issue was really his golden ticket, he wouldn't have selected Sarah Palin as his running mate.”
I have to disagree with your analysis. GovP actually has more executive experience than BHO, both as a former mayor and as a governor, which she deftly illustrated in her convention speech. Her bio also presents a far greater wealth of life experience.
By selecting her JMac actually puts the focus back on BHO’s thin resume. BHO’s selection of Biden was itself an admission of his own experience shortcomings.
Make no mistake, BHO’s campaign needs to deal with the experience issue in a convincing manner, and soon, even if it means turning the issue on its head and claiming experience doesn’t count. If he fails to win in November it will be due to his ignoring the importance of
this issue.
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Sep 8, 2008 8:41:48 PM
I'm probably going to write a post on this in the next couple days, but another point to make is that Palin's selection looks great now, but it comes at some cost. She's hard-core right wing (creationism, abortion absolutism, etc), which means that McCain was forced to make a decision that shored up his base rather than reached out for independents. At the moment, it looks good because everyone's excited. But will she wear well? Will independents be turned off once they realize she's to Bush's right?
One thing's for sure: it didn't follow McCain's plan. He wanted to have a veep who accentuated his maverick and bipartisan inclinations (such as they are). His campaign is going badly enough he had to play defense rather than go on offense with a proactive choice like Lieberman.
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Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Sep 8, 2008 11:13:30 AM
Incidentally, this post grew out of an email I sent to Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo. I assumed that it would never see the light of day, and so I expanded it and made a post here. I was wrong.