We Could Really Use That Billion Right About Now

Jeff Alworth

We learned yesterday that Oregon's unemployment rate spiked in October to 7.3%

Oregon's total nonfarm payroll employment dropped from 1,725,000 in September to 1,710,900 in October, seasonally adjusted. The largest monthly drop since February 1981 represented 0.8 percent of Oregon's employment, compared with 1.4 percent in 1981 when the work force was smaller.

Since October 2007, the number of unemployed people in Oregon has jumped by 40,458 to 134,096. The state's unemployment rate has risen by 1.9 percentage points this year.

You know what happens when unemployment rises, right?  Income tax revenues decrease.  This is one of those times when, you know, it might be great to have a little cash socked away.  (Actually, we do have a little...very little). As it happens, it was almost exactly one year ago that Oregonians received a check from the state kicking back 1.1 billion dollars. Our budget is about to see a massive hole blown through it, one that wouldn't be nearly so big if we hadn't siphoned off that billion dollars a year ago.  In January, Treasurer Randall Edwards wrote an editorial presciently making this point ("And last month, just before Christmas, we sent out a record $1.1 billion kicker even as signs of a recession were on the horizon."). 

A couple days ago, Kari asked how we might build a "bigger, stronger, smarter, and more effective progressive movement" in Oregon.  I would like to suggest that no progressive legislation that depends on funding--none--can come out of Salem until we get rid of or radically reform the kicker (non-budgetary issues like repealing Measure 36 are another matter). 

Even if we do that, our budget depends on two revenue streams--income and property taxes--and one of these is highly volatile.  The combination of an unreliable funding structure and the sheer craziness of the kicker create a system that will continue to oscillate between times of boom and bust.  If we don't tame this beast, forget about progressive legislation.  The first priority of everyone serious about progressive change in Oregon should be to press our legislature to finally roll up their collective sleeves and tackle this problem.

  • Douglas K. (unverified)
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    Repealing the kicker can go a long way to reducing the volatility of the income tax. If the state simply socked away its surpluses in a rainy day fund instead of sending them back to the taxpayers, we'd be in a much better position to ride out the bad times.

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    I figure that my per capita share of $700,000,000,000 is around $2,000,000,000, give or take a kopek or two. Half of my share goes to the Oregon Democratic Party. The other half goes to some sort of productive business -- maybe I'd start a solar powered electricity production plant somewhere out in all that lava that covers the middle part of Oregon.

    Uhh, you mean I don't get any of that incredible honey? Uhh, who does? No one I know.

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    I don't suppose it's possible to completely ax the damn thing--it's too popular. But reforming it so it was a rolling average of two years calculated at the end of the biennium--something like that would be a big improvement.

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    Why not a rolling average of seven years? Seems to me that it should pick up the support of the religious conservatives, even.

    Genesis 41:25-36

    Then Joseph said to Pharaoh, “Both dreams of Pharaoh have the same meaning. God has revealed to Pharaoh what he is about to do. The seven good cows represent seven years, and the seven good heads of grain represent seven years. Both dreams have the same meaning. The seven lean, bad-looking cows that came up after them represent seven years, as do the seven empty heads of grain burned with the east wind. They represent seven years of famine. This is just what I told Pharaoh: God has shown Pharaoh what he is about to do. Seven years of great abundance are coming throughout the whole land of Egypt. But seven years of famine will occur after them, and all the abundance will be forgotten in the land of Egypt. The famine will devastate the land. The previous abundance of the land will not be remembered because of the famine that follows, for the famine will be very severe. The dream was repeated to Pharaoh because the matter has been decreed by God, and God will make it happen soon. Seven years of great abundance are coming throughout the whole land of Egypt. But seven years of famine will occur after them, and all the abundance will be forgotten in the land of Egypt. The famine will devastate the land. The previous abundance of the land will not be remembered because of the famine that follows, for the famine will be very severe. The dream was repeated to Pharaoh because the matter has been decreed by God, and God will make it happen soon. “So now Pharaoh should look for a wise and discerning man and give him authority over all the land of Egypt. Pharaoh should do this – he should appoint officials throughout the land to collect one-fifth of the produce of the land of Egypt during the seven years of abundance. They should gather all the excess food during these good years that are coming. By Pharaoh’s authority they should store up grain so the cities will have food, and they should preserve it. This food should be held in storage for the land in preparation for the seven years of famine that will occur throughout the land of Egypt. In this way the land will survive the famine.”
  • Lou (unverified)
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    Instead of "kicker", maybe it should be named "kick new teachers out on the street er" because that's what the end result of this idiocy will be.

    I am tired of the whole "it's too popular" "it's the Oregon frontier way of life" crap. We have a government that already balances itself on a table with three legs. In the good years, when we have the ability to start growing a nub or at least save up for that prosthetic limb where the sales tax leg could be, we cut it off and give it back to the masses for a collective downpayment on their next game of video poker.

    Give me a break. We need a visionary leader who will stop playing the popularity game and do what's right. Hint: It's not the guy who once drafted a progressive public employee collective bargaining law and is now fishing for electric cars in Japan. I hear dynamite works well, Theodore.

  • peter c (unverified)
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    "Why not a rolling average of seven years? Seems to me that it should pick up the support of the religious conservatives, even."

    <h2>sure, and maybe we can reinstitute the jubilee with their help as well, redividing all capital equally amongst everyone every 50 years.</h2>

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