2010: Gubernatorial money numbers
Kari Chisholm
A month ago, right as the legislative session was coming to a close, I started a conversation about possible gubernatorial candidates in 2010 - including a ridiculously long list of possible candidates mentioned by "The Great Mentioner" (In other words, every candidate that's actively considering, some that are widely rumored, and a bunch that somebody, somewhere dreamed up.)
A month later, and we've got a month of fundraising performance from the state candidates - and the Q2 fundraising numbers from those with federal campaign committees.
There's still a long way to go before the field finishes shaking out. But the shaking-out seems to have at least begun. Already out (and perhaps never in): Democrats Barbara Roberts, Peter Courtney, Mark Hass, Kate Brown, Vicki Walker, and Republican Jack Roberts.
As for the rest, here's the latest money numbers, including the change since last month.
First, those who are either running, exploring, or have been reported to be strongly considering:
Cash on hand | Change +/- | ||
D | Peter DeFazio* | 547,641 | 177,274 |
D | Brian Clem | 531,368 | 503,114 |
D | Bill Bradbury | 23,441 | 5,462 |
D | Steve Shields | 11,110 | 10,610 |
D | Steve Novick* | 9,992 | 0 |
D | John Kitzhaber | 0 | 0 |
R | Greg Walden* | 496,121 | 176,140 |
R | Allen Alley | 70,425 | -1,027 |
R | Jason Atkinson | 34,946 | -12,811 |
Second, on the jump, the Great Mentioner's big list of people who haven't publicly ruled out a run for Governor. (Not that anyone's been asking some of these folks.)
Cash on hand | Change +/- | ||
D | Betsy Johnson | 196,891 | -3,935 |
D | Mary Nolan | 77,926 | -4,332 |
D | Dave Hunt | 39,654 | -3,775 |
D | Rick Metsger | 33,696 | 0 |
D | Brad Avakian | 30,472 | -1,946 |
D | Peter Buckley | 18,949 | -5,763 |
D | Randy Leonard | 14,330 | -88 |
D | Alan Bates | 10,816 | -5,879 |
D | Randall Edwards | 7,138 | 0 |
D | John Kroger | 6,763 | -237 |
D | Lynn Peterson | 4,957 | 0 |
D | Ted Wheeler | 2,745 | 0 |
D | Susan Castillo | 2,002 | 0 |
D | Jefferson Smith | 1,335 | -2,251 |
D | Pete Sorenson | 480 | -52 |
D | Ben Westlund | 49 | -319 |
D | Jim Hill | 2 | -1 |
D | Bev Stein | 0 | 0 |
D | Greg Macpherson | 0 | 0 |
R | Gordon Smith* | 75,663 | 0 |
R | Bill Kennemer | 40,043 | -533 |
R | Ted Ferrioli | 30,897 | -75,605 |
R | Ron Saxton | 21,922 | 0 |
R | Bruce Hanna | 17,148 | -4,117 |
R | Frank Morse | 12,482 | -521 |
R | Kevin Mannix* | 3065 | -159 |
R | Dave Frohnmayer | 0 | 0 |
R | Rick Dancer | 0 | 0 |
I | John Frohnmayer* | 985 | 0 |
* Notes: While Oregon has daily electronic reporting, federal campaigns still report quarterly. The most recent numbers from Greg Walden and Peter DeFazio are from July 31. The most recent numbers from Steve Novick, Gordon Smith, and John Frohnmayer are from December 31. Kevin Mannix has both state and federal committees (12/31), which I added together here. I used the "cash balance" figure from Oregon's system and "cash on hand" for federal.)
Finally, many of these people are current or former clients of my company. In particular, my firm built Brian Clem's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
More Recent Posts | |
Albert Kaufman |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
Kari Chisholm |
Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat |
Albert Kaufman |
Polluted by Money - How corporate cash corrupted one of the greenest states in America |
Guest Column |
|
Albert Kaufman |
Our Democrat Representatives in Action - What's on your wish list? |
Kari Chisholm |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
connect with blueoregon
9:37 a.m.
Aug 3, '09
Kari, you can definitely put me in the "never in" category (assuming the statute of limitations has run on my 2002 offense).
Aug 3, '09
Jack,
I recently went through the election returns , and there have only been three gov. primaries for either party since 1966 where the margin of victory was less than ten points between the winner and runner up.
The closest was '74 D (Straub a few points ahead of Betty Roberts, who was a few points ahead of Jim Redden) followed by '02 R (Mannix six points ahead of you, while you were one ahead of Saxrton) followed by '94 R (Denny Smith was nine points ahead of Craig Berkman, which was surprisingly close). Your performance was impressive.
<h2>You need to join the Pentacostal Church or something to win the R primary, but would then lose the General. This is probably the biggest hangup that Walden has when deciding whether or not to run. Being pro timber and pro business aren't enough when half the R primary voters want the nominee to be Pat Roberston.</h2>