Kate Brown Won't Be Issuing Voter Turnout Prediction

Capitol Currents:

Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown apparently won't be keeping up the election season tradition of issuing a guess about what percentage of the state's registered voters will cast a ballot. In Oregon, it's a ritual that dates at least as far back as 1966, when then-Secretary of State Tom McCall predicted a 72% turnout. Most Oregon Secretaries of State have kept the tradition alive, and that guessing game has become a lot easier now that vote-by-mail allows elections officials to generate some actual hard data from early returns on which to base the final prediction. During the last presidential election in 2008, for instance, Bill Bradbury predicted a modern record turnout of 86.5%. That turned out to be a little optimistic, but not by much. Since taking office in 2009, Kate Brown has issued turnout predictions for every statewide election. In the January 2010 special election, the prediction was 62%. (This turned out to be right on the money.) In the May 2010 primary Brown predicted a 37% turnout. (Actual turnout was 41%.) In the November 2010, the prediction was 72%. (Actual turnout was 70%.) In May of this year, Brown didn't settle on a specific number, but she told the Oregonian she expected turnout for the primary to be "in the low 40's." (Actual turnout was 38%)But don't look for a prediction this time around. Brown's spokeswoman, Andrea Cantu-Schomus, says, "As you can imagine it does take some time and research. We are focusing on our get out the vote efforts, encouraging Oregonians to register and vote."Of course, Brown, the candidate, is probably watching the early returns closely. The Democrat is locked in a fierce political battle to keep her job against Republican challenger Knute Buehler. As of the latest count, just over 14% of Oregon voters have returned their ballot. So far, Democrats have returned their ballots at a slightly rate than Republicans.

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