Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 7/19

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To receive the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest via email each weekday, sign up here. Note: This digest is just a re-organized version of the new "Live Digest" we began experimenting with yesterday. Senate: • FL-Sen: Dick Armey's conservative dark money group FreedomWorks announced it would support ex-state Rep. Adam Hasner in the GOP primary. Hasner, a favorite of arch-conservatives, of course is also buoyed by the surprise departure of state Senate President Mike Haridopolos from the race yesterday. • IN-Sen: Brian Howey, who publishes a newsletter devoted to Indiana politics, offers his take as to why he thinks Treasurer Richard Mourdock's primary challenge to Sen. Dick Lugar is "swooning." Mourdock's definitely had quite a few stumbles of late, but I'm still not sold on the idea that his fundraising has doomed him. He pulled in $300K in Q2 — by way of comparison, Marco Rubio pulled in about $330K in the comparable period in 2009. And Dick Lugar raised less lass quarter than any Republican Senator seeking re-election this cycle. (Well, I don't know how much John Barrasso of Wyoming or Roger Wicker of Mississippi have raised, but does it matter?) I'm definitely not counting Mourdock out yet. Meanwhile, Dave Catanese says that Dick Lugar has purchased ad time for a ten-day statewide buy — exceptionally early for any race, even one with a contested primary. No word on how much Lugar is actually spending, though, nor are there links to the (or ads). • MA-Sen: Now that she isn't being nominated to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Elizabeth Warren says she will "go home" to Massachusetts and "do more thinking" about a possible Senate run. The CFPB formally opens its doors later this week, so presumably she'll return to the Bay State at some point after that. • MO-Sen: GOP Rep. Todd Akin finally changed his voter registration to actually match the place where he, you know, lives... but I doubt this is going to be the end of it for him. For the full backstory on this very dodgy tale of what for once seems like actual voter fraud, check out the original St. Louis Post-Dispatch piece which broke the story... and note that Akin submitted the request to alter his registration right after the article came out. • NV-Sen: Courtesy Jon Ralston, we get to take a look at a Tarrance Group poll for GOP Sen. Dean Heller, taken last week. The survey shows the incumbent up just 48-44 over Rep. Shelley Berkley; while not a surprise to see things this close, I think those are non-awesome numbers for an own-poll. There's not a whole lot of other detail in the memo, sorry to say. • WI-Sen: The Tammy Baldwin watch continues. The Dem Rep. said on a recent TV interview that she's "very likely to jump in" and will decide by mid-August. The state Senate recall elections wrap up on Aug. 16, so presumably, like fellow Rep. Ron Kind, she's waiting until then. Gubernatorial: • KY-Gov: Dem Gov. Steve Beshear is out with a pair of new ads, touting his record on job creation and supporting business in the state. The buys apparently total about $60K. You can watch both ads at the link. • NH-Gov: Conservative activist (that's usually code for "Some Dude") Kevin Smith says he's thinking about running for governor. I had figured that Ovide Lamontagne, the undeclared but likely GOP front-runner, was a member-in-good-standing of the conservative movement, so I'm not sure what this guy's angle is. House: • CA-36: Democrat Janice Hahn, winner of last week's special election, is tentatively set to be sworn in today. • FL-10: David DeCamp at the St. Petersburg Times reports that the DCCC is trying to recruit Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch (a name we mentioned just yesterday, in fact) to run against GOP Rep. Bill Young. According to the article "Welch said he will not run against Young," but given Young's age, a retirement is always a possibility. • IN-09: A major bummer for Democrats: Sam Locke, who ran for state auditor last year and had been exploring a campaign against freshman GOPer Todd Young, now says he won't run. Last week, another strong Dem, Peggy Welch, also declined to run, putting Team Blue back at square one here. • MN-08: I'm not sure how this is supposed to help Chip Cravaack. His wife works for a medical company based in Boston, so the GOP freshman is moving his family to New Hampshire. I guess he's going to try to split his time between DC, NH and MN, but that seems awfully hard — plus it will, of course, open him up to attacks that he isn't concerned about his district. • NH-01, NH-02: PPP's recent poll of New Hampshire's two GOP-held House seats shows a tied race in the 2nd CD but a less rosy picture in the 1st. Click the link for the full post at Daily Kos Elections. • NV-0?: Democratic state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera just announced he's running for Congress, but exactly which seat he'll seek is a mystery. Jon Ralston thinks he wants to run against GOP Rep. Denny Heck in the 3rd CD, but there will be two other open seats once we're done with redistricting. • OR-01: Businessman Rob Miller, who runs a food manufacturing company, says he's considering running in the 1st CD as a Republican and will decide in "weeks, not months." The Oregonian's Jeff Mapes calls Miller "potentially strong," but notes that Miller says he could not self-fund. It's also worth pointing out that on the Dem side, Rep. David Wu raised an unspectacular $230K, while Brad Avakian took in $195K. Other Races: • WI Recall: In the lone D-vs.-R recall election that's taking place today, Public Policy Polling found Dem state Sen. Dave Hansen crushing Republican David Vanderleest 62-34. The other two races tonight feature GOP primaries. There's also a trio of new ads out in the recalls. First up, labor group We Are Wisconsin has a new ad out hitting GOP Sen. Luther Olsen on supporting tax cuts for the wealthy, featuring a very eye-catching visual theme. I encourage you to watch it. A second ad, this time from the Wisconsin Democratic Party, goes after Alberta Darling on a new theme: wanting to keep cops who had been fired for things like drunk driving and assault allegations on the public payroll. Finally, there's a spot from Randy Hopper, touting his supposed job-saving efforts and attacking Dem Jess King with an outright black-is-white, up-is-down lie about a pay increase vote. Hopper somehow claims King voted in favor of raising her own salary while on the Oshkosh City Council, but she voted against the measure. Hopefully Democrats can get this ad taken down. Grab Bag: • Crossroads: Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS is out with a $1.4 million buy hitting ten different Democratic members of Congress. The theme seems to be the same in each case: Find a clip of the rep. saying we need to reduce spending, then attack them with an allegedly litany of votes for increased spending. The full list of targets is at the link, along with YouTubes of all the ads. • Senate: Dave Catanese takes an interesting trip down memory lane to show just how far behind in fundraising various Dem challengers were to some Republican incumbents in 2005 — races that Dems eventually won. I think the point is to show how mega-awesome it is that two Republicans outraised Dem incumbents in separate quarters this cycle (Dave cites a GOP source for the #s), but the problem is that one of them was Mike Haridopolos. Oops. Redistricting Roundup: • SC Redistricting: South Carolina Republicans are trying to work their way out of an utter breakdown in the redistricting process by proposing a new map, and supposedly, a deal is close. But the very same link also cites the leader of the renegade Republicans who scuttled the original plan as saying he has no intention of backing down, so I'm skeptical. For the backstory to this crazy affair, click here. • WI Redistricting: A state Senate committee passed the GOP's new legislative and congressional maps, which the full Senate will vote on today, followed by the Assembly tomorrow. No changes were made to the congressional plan, which was first formally unveiled just a week-and-a-half ago.

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