Another Poll Shows Fritz With Wide Lead Over Nolan—For Now

Portland Mercury:

A new poll (PDF) released by Commissioner Amanda Fritz today offered some more good news in her bid to fend off a challenge from her much-better-funded opponent, State Representative Mary Nolan. According to the telephone survey of 402 likely voters, conducted earlier this month, Fritz has a 34-point lead over Nolan—eight points larger than in a similar poll conducted last fall. But the same caveats remain: Almost half of the respondents said they were undecided, also just like last fall. And Nolan, with friends in high places, has a gigantic war chest at her disposal and can vastly outspend Fritz on TV ads and mailers and muster a most efficient get-out-the-vote operation this May. Fritz, who has loaned herself $50,000 and is holding contributions to $50, has just $41,000 in cash on hand; Nolan has about four times as much: $165,000.

This all points to a long slog into November. Fritz, with whatever power incumbency bestows, seems strong enough to keep Nolan from stunning her with an outright victory in May; Nolan would improbably have to snag three out of four undecided voters in less than two months. But Nolan has enough money—and volunteers, thanks to her heavyweight union endorsements—to slowly but surely chip away at Fritz until November. [ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

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