Election Day! Bush vs. Kerry

Obviously, the big news of the day will relate to the presidential election. Feel free to talk about anything and everything related to the national election. Discuss.

(We'll also open a new thread when the polls start to close.)

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    CNN is reporting a tornado bearing down on eastern New Orleans. This is, of course, very bad news for Democrats in Louisiana. If anyone had Louisiana down as a swing state, you can take it off your list. It also, btw, probably means that we won't see a decisive victory by one of the Democrats running for Senate. Almost definitely heading for a December runoff now.

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    Today's newspapers here in the UK feature full-page electoral maps and cheerful headlines like "A day that will decide the fate of the world." (www.independent.co.uk).

    Lunchtime in the Queen's dining hall (think Harry Potter minus the floating candles) featured clustered of jittery Americans...and Canadians and Europeans and South Americans...comparing tales of sleeplessness and wondering what time of night reliable news will start coming in. The Times of London published a helpful "insomniac's guide" to help us determine when key states might come in, from 1am GMT on. (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1340788,00.html)

    Despite the fact that when I woke up this morning it was 1am in the PacNW, I've been checking election-related websites every 15 minutes, all day long. When out and about, I've been wearing my Kerry/Edwards button proudly...and the notoriously reserved Brits are smiling and talking to me in the streets.

    This weekend, anti-Bush grafitti turned up all around Oxford (they use chalk on the antique buildings, very civilised). I'd hoped to snap a picture of my favorite but it got washed away too quickly: it simply said "Bush talks bullox."

    When the Oxford Union election night bash winds down about 4am, the Oregon polls will have just closed. So I'll be heading back to my little room and hitting the laptop to keep an eye on the Oregon returns. See you then!

  • Becky (unverified)

    If, like me, you listen to Air America Radio and watch Fox News and debate issues with a conservative-to-the-bone husband, you just can't help but be confused. Both Bush and Kerry are evil. They're both awesome. They're both mediochre. They're even both better Christians than each other! It's insane. Who is telling the truth? It's downright embarrassing not to be able to tell. In the end I voted for the Libertarian. I couldn't support the President's sidetracking the war on terror while he went after Saddam, his phony tax cut, and his undisciplined spending, not to mention the Halliburton et al stuff. But I don't like the direction Kerry would take us, even if it would be different from the one we're on. It's that national health care thing, more than anything. What's a jaded political junkie like me supposed to do? If I didn't have politics-induced PTSD before, I do now!

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    On my regular drive into work I usually pass by the Multnomah County Elections office. Today, about 7 blocks away from the Elections office I ran into a traffic jam -- something I've never seen on my way into work (I come in late). At first, I thought the line of hundreds of cars was due to a traffic accident. Strangely, the traffic jam on SE 12th was all in one lane.

    Progressing a bit further, I soon realized that the people in the cars were voters, waiting in line in order to drop off their ballots in the "motor voter" lane on SE 11th. Given the speed of the line, many of them must have waited for 1/2 hour or more. I have to say it got me a little misty-eyed, to see all these people choosing to be so inconvenienced in order to vote.

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    Okay, time to start rumormongering. Early exit polls ... strongly favor Kerry!

    PA Kerry 60%, Bush 40% OH Kerry 52%, Bush 48% FL Kerry 51%, Bush 48% MI Kerry 51%, Bush 47% NM Kerry 50%, Bush 48% MN Kerry 58%, Bush 40% WI Kerry 52%, Bush 43% IA tied at 49% NH Kerry 57%, Bush 41%

    It's all rumor! I got it from Atrios! We're number 1!

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    Funny how so many of the rumors on the blogosphere all agree that the exit polls favor Kerry. If you really want some fun, go to FreeRepublic.com and read the freepers out cries!

  • BassBird (unverified)

    OMG!! its over...kerry wins.

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    NRO is hysterical, too. They're busy downplaying the significance of the exits while at the same time sliding into a panicked frenzy. Clearly they matter.


    Also, this cracks me up, too:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks changed course suddenly on Tuesday as chatter on the Internet speculated that early exit polls show Sen. John Kerry leading the presidential election in key states.

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    Okay, yet more. This is a little more reliable than the exit polling, for reasons I'll explain in a moment. From CNN:

    Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts. Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%. Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts. Michigan- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

    In polling, often pollsters try to offer a number based on what "likely voters" will do. This differs from registered voters, and depends on calculations each polling firm creates. They're all different, but they all depend on certain algorithms for turnout. Based on this CNN report, if nonwhite voters are exceeding predicted norms (also a moving target), it means the voting population is different from the sample. In this case, that would heavily favor Kerry.

    Stay tuned.

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