Welcome to the post-carbon era
By Betsy Toll of Portland, Oregon. Betsy is the director of Living Earth and a social change activist. She writes, "As the mother of two teenagers, I have a deeply vested interest in creating a world and a community that is creative, cooperative, inclusive, and vibrant for coming generations."
The Beaver state's reputation for wet, moldy weather in endless shades of grey is pouring down all over Oregon this month, and long range climate forecasts indicate that somewhat warmer, much wetter winters will likely be the norm in the 21st century.
Welcome to the post-carbon era of long-predicted climate change.
The extraction and burning of fossil fuels is widely established as the leading factor that is pushing our planet into an era of radically changed climate. The world will be forced to deal with the wide range of disruptions and upheaval that climate change will bring, without the assistance of all the petroleum-based tools and technologies we have become so accustomed to using. And of course, carefree burning of fossil fuels is just one more area in which the US has had the vainglorious honor of leading the way.
The ironic good news though is that the damage can't go on forever. The era of cheap fuel is about to sputter to an end.
It is almost poignant that, just like junkies whose connection has finally dried up, the oil-addicted world's denial and magical thinking are strong even as our connection is about to run dry. Still, our only choice is to start tapering off right now if we hope to lessen the painful convulsions of cold turkey withdrawal that lie ahead. Global climate change coupled with dramatic economic impacts as oil becomes less available are going to make for a very wild ride, especially for our children.
Living Earth is hosting community discussions on the myriad dimensions of these issues and the complex responses and possibilities that arise as we contemplate the stark reality of the coming end of cheap fuels.
Details are on our website at LivingEarthGatherings.org, as well as a forum page on the Powerdown Circles we have held since early fall.
The more of us who are paying attention to these issues, thinking creatively, and working cooperatively at personal and public levels, the better off we'll all be. So grab your galoshes and wade right in--there's a lot of work to be done.
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Jan. 16, 2006
Posted in guest column. |
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Jan 16, '06
re: The ironic good news though is that the damage can't go on forever. The era of cheap fuel is about to sputter to an end.
JK: Here is the upper limit on the price of enviro friendly fuel: Extract carbon from atmospeheric Co2 Extract H from water. (that makes the fuel cycle closed - no enviro controversy) Combine into hydrocarbon liquid fuel. Processes are mostly (all??) widely known.
The raw maertials are FREE, the only question is the cost of the plant and the Nuclear energy required to drive this process.
Then we can all continue to drive our SUVs with no global climate concerns.
BTW have you seen these climate change articles(3.5meg PDF) from 1958 and 1975. Most interesting is Schnider's comments to Discover mag in the Oct 89 issue (highlighted)
Thanks JK
Jan 16, '06
We've been running out of oil for at least 80 years now. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. As desparately as the left wishes oil was running out, it isn't. Sorry.
But what would the left do if someone developed a cheap and limitless and non-polluting energy source such as JK describes that allowed anybody to drive as large a car as they wished?
That would no doubt be the left's worst nightmare! What would they use to convince us to adopt their economic policies?
All you peak oil wingnuts are really funny. Keep it up, please, because it is very entertaining.
Jan 16, '06
One of my biggest regrets in life at 48 is that i didn't stay in school and go on to achieve a career in R+D of alternate energy sources,well i have my daughter to carry on.-Danny Haszard
Jan 16, '06
Hey Sasha,
A man and his wife were driving cross country. The wife, who was the cautious type, suggested her husband stop for gas when the tank neared the "E" marking on the fuel gauge. He told her there was plenty of fuel left and not to worry. About 50 miles down the road, she again suggested he stop for gas. The man retorted, "we weren't running out of gas last time you bugged me, and we're not running out now." Just then, the engine began to sputter. The moral of the story: don't depend on Sasha's opinions.
Jan 16, '06
Betsy, There are many people "who are paying attention, are thinking creatively, and are working cooperatively at personal and public levels" who also disagree with you entirely. The swarm of theories suggesting everything from a 10 degree rise to a new mini ice age makes the pandemonium you have bought into just that and nothing more. Your calling the economic calamity you predict "good news" shows me you are in need of some personal growth.
Jan 17, '06
Hey sasha,
Are you challenging whether or not oil is finite? I would very much enjoy hearing that argument. :)
As for the imminence of global peak, I suggest you consider the kinds of publications and groups that have been reporting on peak oil lately:
National Geographic The BBC CBC Fortune Magazine Financial Times Geologists Financial advisors U.S. House of Representatives Oil industry Greens Neo-cons Democrats Republicans
When such a diversity of people are talking so frankly of the direness and apparent imminence of peak, I get the feeling that they may be on to something. Where they, and perhaps we, differ is on how to deal with the issue.
For your final consideration, check out the discussion over at www.theoildrum.com; most of the active posters are professional geologists, many of whom are in the oil industry itself. They speak with some real authority on the issue.
Happy learning! -Brandon
Jan 17, '06
Wow. You are a moron. Weather is an inherently brutally chaotic system -- don't expect even scientists to fully understand it. But DO expect that none of the possible scenarios is good for a civilization that's enjoyed a stable climate throughout its development. Why play fast and loose with the forces that govern our food production? We're already seeing droughts. Nevermind explaining to your kids that your stupidity led to the end of their beloved penguins and polar bears.