Can Oregon's lefty blogosphere help topple Karen Minnis?
Over at Willamette Week, they've got a story about last week's event for Rob Brading - featuring Markos Moulitsas (of DailyKos.com) and Jerome Armstrong (of MyDD.com).
Willamete Week is wondering about the role of the lefty blogosphere as an organizing venue for political campaigns:
Can Minnis' Dem challenger take down the speaker with blogs' help?A great test of blogs' promised ability to topple the powerful is emerging with Democrat Rob Brading's challenge to Oregon progressives' top bogeywoman, House Speaker Karen Minnis. ...
Despite the short notice, a suggested $20 donation for admission, and no traditional advertising, the event attracted an estimated 150 people.
"It was completely a creation of blogs," Brading says. "There were some familiar faces in the audience, but a lot of folks I don't know."
Brading, a 56-year-old director of MetroEast Community Media, says it's one more piece of evidence that people are engaging in politics who didn't have access before blogs.
And there's another piece of supporting evidence: More than one-third of the attendees at the event expressed interest in volunteering for his campaign. Whether it will be enough to push Brading over the top remains to be seen.
Read the rest. Discuss.
If you're inclined to help, head on over to Rob Brading's website.
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10:04 a.m.
Apr 19, '06
A personal note: The WW story credits me with the Kos/Armstrong event setup, but I want to give credit where credit is due...
While I helped get the event booked (and promoted), the event itself was set up and organized by the Brading campaign. I'm the guy with the blog -- they're the ones who did the hard work on getting the space, dealing with catering, taking RSVP, collecting money, etc.
Apr 19, '06
a friend & I attended the Brading fundraiser. We wouldn't have known about it, 'cept I'd read about it (while at work) earlier in the day--here at the Blue Oregon site.
10:32 a.m.
Apr 19, '06
Help? Sure. Everything helps.
Can it be won through an internet focus? Don't be silly. Voters barely read the newspaper. They trash the mail. They do their best to tune out the commercials. Which is why the miniscule amount of money blogs can raise is just a blip.
If you want to defeat Karen Minnis, there really is only one way: canvassing. That was the lesson Jefforson Smith taught me. That even person to person contact, even among strangers, is twice as effective as every other form of political communication. It's even more effective when it's the candidate him or herself at the door.
So if you want to help Rob Brading, get out from behind the keyboard and pitch in. He's going to need all the help he can get.
10:50 a.m.
Apr 19, '06
Steven, how do you get your canvassers? This may be where blogs can provide the impetus. Blogs like BlueOregon are frequented by the activists of a party. When the Brading announcement came out here, it found the eyeballs of the kinds of people who would canvass--which led to an additional 50+ people who expressed an interest in volunteer work. That's probably the greatest value of blogs to campaigns--promoting a discussion among the party activists that leads to direct action.
10:51 a.m.
Apr 19, '06
The answer to whether Karen Minnis can be toppled is yeah, damn straight. And the blogs can help -- but as Steve mentioned, only inasmuch as they can help turn out bodies at the doorstep.
Political junkies, campaign time is upon us. There are few prizes sweeter than taking out Minnis, and the best way to help is to sign up for a shift today.
And if you're not in Portland, there are great candidates like Clem, Riley and many other that need help at what progressives do best: grassroots field work talking directly to voters.
Apr 19, '06
Charlie, thank you for mentioning there are Democratic candidates in the rest of the state.
I would also mention Brian Grisham against the appointed Cameron (appointed after Doyle resigned), Chuck Lee against Kim Thatcher, Jim Gilbert against Sumner, Connie Garcia against Berger, and 2 for State Senate: Paul Evans against Jackie Winters, and Rick Ross against Starr or whoever wins that primary. And that is just from the point of view of someone in the mid-Willamette Valley. Those are all Marion/ Polk candidates, and there are also excellent candidates in Yamhill, Linn, Benton, Lincoln, and other counties.
2:39 p.m.
Apr 19, '06
Yes, yes, yes!
As Markos himself said, the day before the Brading event...
Mouse-clicking isn't activism, unless it's clicking on the "donate" button or the "volunteer" button.
Apr 19, '06
Topple Minnis? You must be joking. She is very popular in her district - Wood Village, and very popular among the members of her party in the legislature. Blog away.
9:59 p.m.
Apr 19, '06
Popular in her district? You must be joking.
I happen to live out here (in the sister district-- HD 50), and I can tell you that she isn't that populat out here in east county. The last name is well known, though.
If she was that popular, she wouldn't have needed to spend $300,000+ last time to keep her seat (she'd won in past years by as many as 20 points-- she won this one by just over 6). Now that Brading has the name recognition, she's extremely scared. That's why she is looking to spend $750K this time.
Apr 20, '06
I find this whole discussion a little on the funny side.
Either / Or???
Blogs are just another way to communicate. Communication is the core of any campaign.
No where else do we find places to discuss the "big ideas", while at the same time giving notice to opportunities to take the "little steps" - in a free democratic manner that allows anyone to participate on any level they'd like.
Mr. Magoo again cracks me up. So uninformed for such adamant views. Minnis has a District with more Democratic voters and Republican!
Apr 20, '06
Dang, I hate it when you spot a mis-type just after you hit post.
Minnis has more Democratic voters registered THAN Republican in his district.
Apr 20, '06
When mentioning key races throughout the state, don't forget Chris Edwards running in West Eugene against Debi Farr. Chris has a strong business background, is a quick study, and is supported by a variety of leaders and groups throughout Lane County. Ms. Farr has a remarkable lack of experience and has been nothing but a patsy for Minnis and Scott in her first session. Everyone who is able should do what they can to ensure that we have a fresh, strong, independent voice in the Legislature next year in Chris Edwards.
Apr 20, '06
Long time reader, first time poster
I have been working to get Rob Brading elected for over three years now. He is a great man who can and will defeat Speaker Karen Minnis. You must remember that Speaker Minnis is the highest ranking Republican in the state. As such she is using her position to sucking up a lot of money that could have gone to other Republicans. Every dollar I make her spend on herself in her vain attempt to stay elected is one less dollar for her Republican friends. So, in a way, when I walk for Rob Brading, I am walking for every Democrat running for office in the state. I also know that the only way we can overcome her hundreds of thousands is by the tried and true method of Knock and Talk. If every one who reads this site just spent four hours walking for Rob Brading between now and November, Karen Minnis would be defeated and the House would be in the hands of the Democrats.
Apr 20, '06
Dang, I hate it when you spot a mis-type just after you hit post.
Minnis has more Democratic voters registered THAN Republican in his district.
Uh . . . John Minnis is long an afterthought. Perhaps you meant "her" district?
And yes, House 49 currently has 10,896 D's, but only 8,646 R's, yet the Minnis's have owned that part of east Mult Co for years. Karen Minnis wins because she gets a majority of the 6,155 NA's (independents) AND a good number of cross-over Dem's.
As Jenni, our resident District 50 watcher has said before, Dem's east of I-205 vote much more to the right than their inner-Portland counterparts. That's why I still say that the House races in 47 and 49 will get entangled at some point, especially when one realizes those two races may fairly be described as "Merkley v. Minnis."
Apr 20, '06
Wes has not looked into the numbers deep enough. Rob Brading would have won last election by about 500 votes if 2000 of the voters who voted for John Kerry and Earl Blumenauer had continued down and voted for Rob. Instead they left the House vote blank. All Rob needed was more name recognition. Remember, Lorie Monis-Anderson, a Democrat, won the Senate race and half of her Senate District is House District 49 so the voters are receptive to a Democrat. I have spent a Lot of time in 49 on people’s doorsteps talking to them and believe me the Minnis's own nothing and they know it. That’s why they have committed to raising $750,000 just to get reelected.
Apr 20, '06
PS:
I don't dispute the numbers or your reasoning. Monnes-Anderson barely beat Ron Sunseri in one of the state's most evenly distributed senate districts (House 49-50).
And you're right. If east county Dem's simply vote the party line, Karen Minnis and John Lim would each be out of their jobs.
My point was simply that voters in east Mult Co, with a decidedly strong Democrat registration edge, nonetheless passed M36, M37, and hammer every tax issue put before them. Those aren't "Portland Democrats."
House 47, 48, 49 and 50 comprise one contiguous battle zone in east Mult Co, with two Republican incumbents in districts with Democrat registration edge. Even Jeff Merkley, a supposedly safe four-term Rep in 47, has what appears to be his first legitimate challenge since taking over Frank Shield's old house seat 16.
No one is safe, regardless of party or incumbency.
9:05 p.m.
Apr 20, '06
I don't know that I'd say "barely," but it was close:
STATE SENATOR DIST 25 LAURIE MONNES ANDERSON (DEM) . . . . 26,157 52.85 RON SUNSERI (REP). . . . . . . . 23,182 46.84 WRITE-IN . . . . . . . . . . 158 .32 Total . . . . . . . . . . 49,497 Over Votes . . . . . . . 52 Under Votes . . . . . . . 3,878
Monnes Anderson won by 2,975 votes (6.01%). That's almost as much as Minnis won by (6.73%).
I'd like to see the margin grow next time (and I'm sure she would too), but it wasn't too bad since the seat had previously been held by John Minnis. It was the first time in some years that the seat was held by a Dem.
Of the 12 precincts in HD 49, Monnes Anderson won 8 of them. Another was lost by only 7 votes. In the entire senate district she won 14 of 20 precincts.
8:28 a.m.
Apr 21, '06
Wes,
Merkely's seat is safe. Even if Rep. Merkley wasn't well known and well liked in his district, which he is, it would be safe. We should all hope and prey that the R's and the right get themselves all worked into a lather and blow their money in his district - which it appears they have.
8:46 a.m.
Apr 21, '06
I tend to agree with Jon-- I think the HD 47 seat is fairly safe. While we shouldn't get lazy and think we own the district, I don't see us losing it. But I do see the Rs blowing some of their money in the district.
Their fight in HD 47 is unlike our fight against Minnis (where there are 2,250 more Ds than Rs)-- we have a chance because we have a registration edge. They don't have that in Merkley's district-- there are 4,411 more Dems than Repubs.
2:10 p.m.
Apr 21, '06
I canvassed for about a month last year for Monnes Anderson and M37. You want to reach these people? TV. Every door I knocked on had dog, dogs and/or TV blaring. People watch a lot of TV out that way. I was really amazed - it was 4 in the afternoon, and a nice sunny day, people had their TVs on, hardly anyone outside. So, yeah, walking the district is useful, but either cause the power to go out so people have to come out and talk to one another, or spend on TV advertising. Also, I remember Minnis had a big billboard up, I'd invest in one of those, too. btw, the Gresham Outlook will publish letters from non-residents, or they used to. Now might be a good time to write in supporting Brading. And, I look forward to winning this race.
Apr 21, '06
Jon & Jenni:
I agree Merkley is safer than Minnis. But upsets can happen when an incumbent meets a credible and well-financed opponent. Brading, of course, is on his second attempt; McCain on his first. And as Jenni pointed out, Rob has a more favorable registration edge.
I agree with you both about the money; but again, that cuts both ways. Brading is clearly putting pressure on Minnis to raise and spend money to defend 49, so she has less to spread around through their caucus and her private Speaker's PAC, which seeded McCain with $10,000 of his intitial $20,000.
If there is any race, besides her own, that Karen Minnis will heavily support, it will be 47, which is adjacent to hers and is held by her nemesis and rival for the Speaker's job. In other words, Jeff better think twice about gutting his piggy bank on behalf of FuturePAC.
It seems to me that part of each party's strategy, besides winning the election outright, is to make Merkley and Minnis defend their own turf so each has less time and opportunity to help other races. If McCain keeps Merkley pinned down in 47, that hurts Dem's statewide, since they need to gain seats.
Unfortunely, even if Minnis is toppled, after the party is over, you will hear Speaker Scott gavel the next session to order in January.
4:44 p.m.
Apr 21, '06
Actually, I showed that there are 4,411 more Dems in HD 47. It's 2,250 in HD 49. A lack of sleep will make your sentences not come out as well as you'd like.
Apr 21, '06
oops . . . "And as Jenni pointed out, JEFF has a more favorable registration edge."
Anyway, those house races east of I-205 will be a lot more fun to watch than their senate counterparts . . .
10:11 a.m.
Apr 22, '06
It seems to me that part of each party's strategy, besides winning the election outright, is to make Merkley and Minnis defend their own turf so each has less time and opportunity to help other races. If McCain keeps Merkley pinned down in 47, that hurts Dem's statewide, since they need to gain seats.
Any candidate that isn't raising money on their own is not a credible candidate, in my view. Minnis, Scott, and the republican majority Pac have contributed $20,000 of McCain's $21,000.
There's a big difference between the grassroots-based groundswell of support for Brading and a candidate who is being carried a couple of rounds by Republican leadership.
Unfortunely, even if Minnis is toppled, after the party is over, you will hear Speaker Scott gavel the next session to order in January.
Don't count on it. If Brading takes out Minnis (despite being heavily outspent -- again) wins by Brian Clem and Jean Cowan will be enough to push the D's into a tie for control of the house. Meanwhile, the Republicans are going to have to spend big $$ to defend traditionally safe seats such as HD 25 where Chuck Lee is running strong.
The R's will have as much trouble holding on to the House as the D's will have holding on to Mahonia Hall in 2006.
Apr 22, '06
Went canvassing this morning for a friend running as a Dem. challenger for State Senate. Anyone looking at the map would have said it was a highly Republican pct. where we walked given the geography---that area has been considered Republican territory for a number of years. But there were quite a few Democratic registered households on the list and the main problem was finding people home. Ran into one household where the woman said it was a split household--both R and D living there. Another woman told me she'd decided to vote straight Democratic this year because of the way things are going.
Theory is wonderful, but be careful to remember that legislators are elected by getting the most votes (not what focus groups or targeting spreadsheets tell you). There are many challengers with a good chance of winning this year, this being only part of the story: Don't count on it. If Brading takes out Minnis (despite being heavily outspent -- again) wins by Brian Clem and Jean Cowan will be enough to push the D's into a tie for control of the house. Meanwhile, the Republicans are going to have to spend big $$ to defend traditionally safe seats such as HD 25 where Chuck Lee is running strong.
If voters are fed up with the current legislature and vote Brading and Caudle to dump Karen and Wayne, then only one of Cowan, Clem, and Lee ties the House and 2 of them wins majority. And don't forget Grisham in District 19, Garcia in District 20, Gilbert and Sal P. to the north of those districts.
I think this will be a good year for Democrats, although I know people who are skeptical.
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